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On heat records, climate finance, and global aridity
Current conditions: Tens of thousands of people are without power in the UK after Storm Darragh • A volcanic eruption of Mount Kanlaon in the Philippines triggered emergency evacuations • Red Flag fire warnings are in effect across Southern California as Santa Ana winds encounter dry weather.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed what many experts have long anticipated: 2024 will almost certainly beat 2023 to become the hottest year on record. It will also be the first with an average temperature exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold – in fact the average temperature for 2024 is likely to be close to 1.6C above pre-industrial averages.
Copernicus
Last month was the second warmest November on record (surpassed only by last November). The global average temperature over the last 12 months through November was nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average and 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the more recent averages between 1991 and 2020. Sea surface temperatures also remain abnormally high.
The World Bank received $23.7 billion in increased contributions from donor countries to replenish its International Development Association, the lending arm dedicated to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable nations. That brings the total financing to $100 billion and marks “a significant moment for global development,” the bank said. African countries had hoped for more, given the strength of the dollar. Still, the development raises hopes for more climate resilience funding. The U.S. has pledged $4 billion to the IDA under President Biden, but that is expected to change under the incoming Trump administration.
In case you missed it: Goldman Sachs announced it is leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance, a global climate coalition for banks. The group didn’t elaborate on the reasoning for the decision, but sources toldBloomberg it was due to mandatory reporting guidelines. “Firms have been struggling to adapt to a deluge of environmental, social, and governance requirements being enforced by regulators in key markets,” Bloombergreported. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers have been aggressively targeting ESG investment strategies. BlackRock and other investors are being sued by GOP-led states for allegedly breaching antitrust law in ESG investment. Goldman joined the NZBA in 2021. The coalition asks members to set interim five-year targets toward a goal of net zero financed emissions by 2050.
Over the last 30 years, large swathes of land that were once lush and humid have dried out, becoming too arid to sufficiently support robust ecosystems, according to a new report on global aridity from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. The study found that more than 75% of all land on Earth has become drier over the last three decades, and that during that time, drylands expanded by an area the size of the Australian continent to cover 40% of all the global land (excluding Antarctica). This is a very bad trend. Aridity is different from drought. While drought eventually recedes, aridity is “an unrelenting menace,” leading to land degradation, water scarcity, biodiversity decline, crop losses, and large-scale human migration. Human-caused climate change is the main cause of the aridity crisis. “If the world fails in efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” the UN warned, “another 3% of the world’s humid areas are projected to transform into drylands by the end of this century.”
UNCCD
President-elect Trump’s transition team reportedly wants to kill the Postal Service’s plans to electrify its delivery trucks. The team is examining ways to cancel the various contracts between USPS and providers like Ford and Oshkosh for tens of thousands of EVs, as well as charging stations. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange reported recently, the small trucks driven by most local mail carriers get an abysmal 9 miles per gallon, “burning fuel by the tankful and spewing emissions as they go about their appointed rounds.”
Rules designed to protect whales from deadly collisions with ships are in place across just 7% of whale movement hotspots.
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And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.
A conversation with J. Timmons Roberts, executive director of Brown University’s Climate Social Science Network
This week’s interview is with Brown University professor J. Timmons Roberts. Those of you familiar with the fight over offshore wind may not know Roberts by name, but you’re definitely familiar with his work: He and his students have spearheaded some of the most impactful research conducted on anti-offshore wind opposition networks. This work is a must-read for anyone who wants to best understand how the anti-renewables movement functions and why it may be difficult to stop it from winning out.
So with Trump 2.0 on the verge of banning offshore wind outright, I decided to ask Roberts what he thinks developers should be paying attention to at this moment. The following interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
Is the anti-renewables movement a political force the country needs to reckon with?
Absolutely. In my opinion it’s been unfortunate for the environmental groups, the wind development, the government officials, climate scientists – they’ve been unwilling to engage directly with those groups. They want to keep a very positive message talking about the great things that come with wind and solar. And they’ve really left the field open as a result.
I think that as these claims sit there unrefuted and naive people – I don’t mean naive in a negative sense but people who don’t know much about this issue – are only hearing the negative spin about renewables. It’s a big problem.
When you say renewables developers aren’t interacting here – are you telling me the wind industry is just letting these people run roughshod?
I’ve seen no direct refutation in those anti-wind Facebook groups, and there’s very few environmentalists or others. People are quite afraid to go in there.
But even just generally. This vast network you’ve tracked – have you seen a similar kind of counter mobilization on the part of those who want to build these wind farms offshore?
There’s some mobilization. There’s something called the New England for Offshore Wind coalition. There’s some university programs. There’s some other oceanographic groups, things like that.
My observation is that they’re mostly staff organizations and they’re very cautious. They’re trying to work as a coalition. And they’re going as slow as their most cautious member.
As someone who has researched these networks, what are you watching for in the coming year? Under the first year of Trump 2.0?
Yeah I mean, channeling my optimistic and Midwestern dad, my thought is that there may be an overstepping by the Trump administration and by some of these activists. The lack of viable alternative pathways forward and almost anti-climate approaches these groups are now a part of can backfire for them. Folks may say, why would I want to be supportive of your group if you’re basically undermining everything I believe in?
What do you think developers should know about the research you have done into these networks?
I think it's important for deciding bodies and the public, the media and so on, to know who they’re hearing when they hear voices at a public hearing or in a congressional field hearing. Who are the people representing? Whose voice are they advancing?
It’s important for these actors that want to advance action on climate change and renewables to know what strategies and the tactics are being used and also know about the connections.
One of the things you pointed out in your research is that, yes, there are dark money groups involved in this movement and there are outside figures involved, but a lot of this sometimes is just one person posts something to the internet and then another person posts something to the internet.
Does that make things harder when it comes to addressing the anti-renewables movement?
Absolutely. Social media’s really been devastating for developing science and informed, rational public policymaking. It’s so easy to create a conspiracy and false information and very slanted, partial information to shoot holes at something as big as getting us off of fossil fuels.
Our position has developed as we understand that indeed these are not just astro-turf groups created by some far away corporation but there are legitimate concerns – like fishing, where most of it is based on certainty – and then there are these sensationalized claims that drive fears. That fear is real. And it’s unfortunate.
Anything else you’d really like to tell our readers?
I didn’t really choose this topic. I feel like it really got me. It was me and four students sitting in my conference room down the hall and I said, have you heard about this group that just started here in Rhode Island that’s making these claims we should investigate? And students were super excited about it and have really been the leaders.