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Climate

2024 Will Top 2023 as the Hottest Year Ever

On heat records, climate finance, and global aridity

2024 Will Top 2023 as the Hottest Year Ever
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Tens of thousands of people are without power in the UK after Storm Darragh • A volcanic eruption of Mount Kanlaon in the Philippines triggered emergency evacuations • Red Flag fire warnings are in effect across Southern California as Santa Ana winds encounter dry weather.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Copernicus: 2024 will be hottest year on record

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed what many experts have long anticipated: 2024 will almost certainly beat 2023 to become the hottest year on record. It will also be the first with an average temperature exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold – in fact the average temperature for 2024 is likely to be close to 1.6C above pre-industrial averages.

Copernicus

Last month was the second warmest November on record (surpassed only by last November). The global average temperature over the last 12 months through November was nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average and 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the more recent averages between 1991 and 2020. Sea surface temperatures also remain abnormally high.

2. World Bank raises $100 billion for poorest nations

The World Bank received $23.7 billion in increased contributions from donor countries to replenish its International Development Association, the lending arm dedicated to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable nations. That brings the total financing to $100 billion and marks “a significant moment for global development,” the bank said. African countries had hoped for more, given the strength of the dollar. Still, the development raises hopes for more climate resilience funding. The U.S. has pledged $4 billion to the IDA under President Biden, but that is expected to change under the incoming Trump administration.

3. Goldman Sachs pulls out of Net Zero Banking Alliance

In case you missed it: Goldman Sachs announced it is leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance, a global climate coalition for banks. The group didn’t elaborate on the reasoning for the decision, but sources told Bloomberg it was due to mandatory reporting guidelines. “Firms have been struggling to adapt to a deluge of environmental, social, and governance requirements being enforced by regulators in key markets,” Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers have been aggressively targeting ESG investment strategies. BlackRock and other investors are being sued by GOP-led states for allegedly breaching antitrust law in ESG investment. Goldman joined the NZBA in 2021. The coalition asks members to set interim five-year targets toward a goal of net zero financed emissions by 2050.

4. Global aridity crisis worsens

Over the last 30 years, large swathes of land that were once lush and humid have dried out, becoming too arid to sufficiently support robust ecosystems, according to a new report on global aridity from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. The study found that more than 75% of all land on Earth has become drier over the last three decades, and that during that time, drylands expanded by an area the size of the Australian continent to cover 40% of all the global land (excluding Antarctica). This is a very bad trend. Aridity is different from drought. While drought eventually recedes, aridity is “an unrelenting menace,” leading to land degradation, water scarcity, biodiversity decline, crop losses, and large-scale human migration. Human-caused climate change is the main cause of the aridity crisis. “If the world fails in efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” the UN warned, “another 3% of the world’s humid areas are projected to transform into drylands by the end of this century.”

UNCCD

5. Trump considering nixing plans to electrify USPS fleet

President-elect Trump’s transition team reportedly wants to kill the Postal Service’s plans to electrify its delivery trucks. The team is examining ways to cancel the various contracts between USPS and providers like Ford and Oshkosh for tens of thousands of EVs, as well as charging stations. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange reported recently, the small trucks driven by most local mail carriers get an abysmal 9 miles per gallon, “burning fuel by the tankful and spewing emissions as they go about their appointed rounds.”

THE KICKER

Rules designed to protect whales from deadly collisions with ships are in place across just 7% of whale movement hotspots.

Yellow

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Spotlight

Trump Taps Nashville Legend to Fight Solar and Wind Farms

And data centers might be collateral damage.

Farmland.
Simon Abranowicz | Getty Images | Unsplash

After derailing gigawatts of renewable power with a permitting freeze, the Trump administration is expanding its war on renewable energy, retaining one of country music’s biggest stars in a PR offensive against utility-scale projects on “prime farmland.”

The administration recently onboarded John Rich – one half of the stadium-packing American musical duo Big & Rich – to be Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners.” Rich entered activism around landowner rights last January when he backed opponents fighting a large Tennessee Valley Authority transmission project routed through his home county of Cheatham, Tennessee. This led to him joining the Trump team, where he’s fashioning himself as a go-to guy and cheerleader for anyone who wants Trump to help stop a solar or wind farm they don’t want built.

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Hotspots

Data Centers Are the Election Year Villain

And more of the week’s top news around project fights.

Data Centers Are the Election Year Villain
Heatmap Illustration

1. Kansas City, Missouri – Data centers are so toxic that politicians are using them as boogeymen in totally unrelated policy discussions.

  • All week I’ve been thinking about Missouri, where a widely-screened TV campaign ad is airing screeds against AI hyperscale projects to sell a constitutional amendment initiative up for a vote in this year’s November elections. “That hum is the sound of Big Tech making money on online gambling, for porn,” says a nameless man in the ad. “Amendment 5 makes Big Tech pay so you don’t have to. Yes on Amendment 5.”
  • What does Amendment 5 do? Based on the ad, you would think it was focused on tax exemptions for data centers. But no – a yes vote supports cutting the state income tax, a proposal backed by Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe.
  • The ad is misinformation and a mind-blowing use of a confusing conversation around tech infrastructure most were unfamiliar with before this year. Per reporting by the Missouri Independent, the state’s existing tax exemptions for data centers would stay in place if the amendment was adopted.
  • My gut tells me this is only the beginning of the data center industry’s transformation into an election year villain.

2. Ingham County, Michigan – We have our first major anti-data center candidate in a Democratic congressional primary.

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Q&A

Why Data Center NDAs Are a Big Mistake

A conversation with Grant Gutierrez of Carbon Direct

Why Data Center NDAs Are a Big Mistake
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Grant Gutierrez, head of community impacts at carbon management company Carbon Direct. This week Carbon Direct published a white paper Gutierrez authored on opposition around data centers he’s studied. His research reinforces much of what Heatmap Pro has uncovered, but I was particularly intrigued by a topline finding – that transparency is the most common thread in the 46 data center fights he looked into. Was he seeing what I’ve been seeing? So I asked him to hop onto a Zoom call and let me know his thoughts.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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