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Climate

2024 Will Top 2023 as the Hottest Year Ever

On heat records, climate finance, and global aridity

2024 Will Top 2023 as the Hottest Year Ever
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Tens of thousands of people are without power in the UK after Storm Darragh • A volcanic eruption of Mount Kanlaon in the Philippines triggered emergency evacuations • Red Flag fire warnings are in effect across Southern California as Santa Ana winds encounter dry weather.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Copernicus: 2024 will be hottest year on record

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed what many experts have long anticipated: 2024 will almost certainly beat 2023 to become the hottest year on record. It will also be the first with an average temperature exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold – in fact the average temperature for 2024 is likely to be close to 1.6C above pre-industrial averages.

Copernicus

Last month was the second warmest November on record (surpassed only by last November). The global average temperature over the last 12 months through November was nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average and 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the more recent averages between 1991 and 2020. Sea surface temperatures also remain abnormally high.

2. World Bank raises $100 billion for poorest nations

The World Bank received $23.7 billion in increased contributions from donor countries to replenish its International Development Association, the lending arm dedicated to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable nations. That brings the total financing to $100 billion and marks “a significant moment for global development,” the bank said. African countries had hoped for more, given the strength of the dollar. Still, the development raises hopes for more climate resilience funding. The U.S. has pledged $4 billion to the IDA under President Biden, but that is expected to change under the incoming Trump administration.

3. Goldman Sachs pulls out of Net Zero Banking Alliance

In case you missed it: Goldman Sachs announced it is leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance, a global climate coalition for banks. The group didn’t elaborate on the reasoning for the decision, but sources told Bloomberg it was due to mandatory reporting guidelines. “Firms have been struggling to adapt to a deluge of environmental, social, and governance requirements being enforced by regulators in key markets,” Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers have been aggressively targeting ESG investment strategies. BlackRock and other investors are being sued by GOP-led states for allegedly breaching antitrust law in ESG investment. Goldman joined the NZBA in 2021. The coalition asks members to set interim five-year targets toward a goal of net zero financed emissions by 2050.

4. Global aridity crisis worsens

Over the last 30 years, large swathes of land that were once lush and humid have dried out, becoming too arid to sufficiently support robust ecosystems, according to a new report on global aridity from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. The study found that more than 75% of all land on Earth has become drier over the last three decades, and that during that time, drylands expanded by an area the size of the Australian continent to cover 40% of all the global land (excluding Antarctica). This is a very bad trend. Aridity is different from drought. While drought eventually recedes, aridity is “an unrelenting menace,” leading to land degradation, water scarcity, biodiversity decline, crop losses, and large-scale human migration. Human-caused climate change is the main cause of the aridity crisis. “If the world fails in efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” the UN warned, “another 3% of the world’s humid areas are projected to transform into drylands by the end of this century.”

UNCCD

5. Trump considering nixing plans to electrify USPS fleet

President-elect Trump’s transition team reportedly wants to kill the Postal Service’s plans to electrify its delivery trucks. The team is examining ways to cancel the various contracts between USPS and providers like Ford and Oshkosh for tens of thousands of EVs, as well as charging stations. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange reported recently, the small trucks driven by most local mail carriers get an abysmal 9 miles per gallon, “burning fuel by the tankful and spewing emissions as they go about their appointed rounds.”

THE KICKER

Rules designed to protect whales from deadly collisions with ships are in place across just 7% of whale movement hotspots.

Yellow

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AM Briefing

New York Quits

On microreactor milestones, the Colorado River, and ‘crazy’ Europe

New York Abandons Its Fifth Offshore Wind Solicitation
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A train of three storms is set to pummel Southern California with flooding rain and up to 9 inches mountain snow • Cyclone Gezani just killed at least four people in Mozambique after leaving close to 60 dead in Madagascar • Temperatures in the southern Indian state of Kerala are on track to eclipse 100 degrees Fahrenheit.


THE TOP FIVE

1. New York abandons its fifth offshore wind solicitation

What a difference two years makes. In April 2024, New York announced plans to open a fifth offshore wind solicitation, this time with a faster timeline and $200 million from the state to support the establishment of a turbine supply chain. Seven months later, at least four developers, including Germany’s RWE and the Danish wind giant Orsted, submitted bids. But as the Trump administration launched a war against offshore wind, developers withdrew their bids. On Friday, Albany formally canceled the auction. In a statement, the state government said the reversal was due to “federal actions disrupting the offshore wind market and instilling significant uncertainty into offshore wind project development.” That doesn’t mean offshore wind is kaput. As I wrote last week, Orsted’s projects are back on track after its most recent court victory against the White House’s stop-work orders. Equinor's Empire Wind, as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last month, is cruising to completion. If numbers developers shared with Canary Media are to be believed, the few offshore wind turbines already spinning on the East Coast actually churned out power more than half the time during the recent cold snap, reaching capacity factors typically associated with natural gas plants. That would be a big success. But that success may need the political winds to shift before it can be translated into more projects.

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Trump’s Assault on the Clean Air Act and What Happens Next

In this special episode, Rob goes over the repeal of the “endangerment finding” for greenhouse gases with Harvard Law School’s Jody Freeman.

Donald Trump and Lee Zeldin.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

President Trump has opened a new and aggressive war on the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to limit climate pollution. Last week, the EPA formally repealed its scientific determination that greenhouse gases endanger human health and the environment.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, we find out what happens next.

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Donald Trump and Lee Zeldin.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

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Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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