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On weather warnings, Climate Corps news, and resilient trees
Current conditions: Torrential rain in Mumbai brought flooding that killed at least four people • Tornado warnings are in effect for parts of Florida as Hurricane Helene nears • Tropical Storm John is expected to become a hurricane again and slam into Mexico for a second time.
Hurricane Helene is strengthening into a major storm as it moves toward Florida’s Big Bend region and is expected to strike this evening, bringing catastrophic winds up to 156 miles per hour and “unsurvivable” storm surge. “You cannot survive 20 feet or even 15 feet of storm surge,” said Tampa Bay meteorologist Jeff Berardelli. “If you’re near the water and you know you’re going to flood, especially if you're in a mobile home, too. You’ve got to go. You cannot take your chances. This is not survivable.”
NOAA/NWS
The storm will likely weaken after it makes landfall but will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to southeastern states. Some areas could see up to 18 inches. “This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.” The storm is being fed by exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Biden administration yesterday announced the creation of an Environmental Justice Climate Corps, which “aims to recruit participants from communities disproportionately impacted by environmental justice challenges and seeks to recruit individuals with an interest in environmental justice careers.” The corps is a partnership between the Environmental Protection Agency and AmeriCorps’ anti-poverty program. Corps members will receive a living allowance and expenses reimbursement equivalent to earning $25 per hour. The program will recruit 250 members over three years, and applications will open early next year.
“Low-income communities and communities of color are disproportionately impacted by the most severe harms of climate change – whether that’s air pollution, extreme temperatures, or flooding,” said Michael D. Smith, CEO of AmeriCorps. “Through this groundbreaking partnership with EPA, we will target resources to underserved communities where they are needed most, while putting hundreds of young people from those communities on a path to environmental justice careers.”
The host country of this year’s COP29 climate summit, Azerbaijan, will pay for negotiators from small island nations to attend in November, according toReuters. A senior COP29 official told the outlet that Baku will foot the bill for four delegates from every small island developing state (SIDS), including travel and hotel fees. Roughly 40 SIDS are expected to participate in the negotiations. Reuters reported that some delegates have complained in recent years about exorbitant accomodation costs around COPs.
Meanwhile, the independent scientific group Climate Action Tracker said Azerbaijan’s own climate progress remains “critically insufficient.” The country is an oil and gas producer and was among a handful of nations that weakened emissions targets last year. “Azerbaijan’s emissions are projected to continue rising by about 20% through to 2030, and it has no commitment to a net zero target,” the CAT report said. The group recommended that Azerbaijan set stronger targets, prioritize renewables over emissions mitigation from oil and gas, and develop a plan for ditching fossil fuels.
A major carbon capture and storage project will be inaugurated today in Norway. The Northern Lights Project, a joint venture between oil giants Equinor Shell, and TotalEnergies will take liquified CO2 that has been captured from European industrial activities and store it “in geological layers buried at approximately 2,600 meters below the seabed in the Northern North Sea.” The goal is to store 1.5 million tons of CO2 per year starting in 2024, scaling up to 10 million tons by 2030. The International Energy Agency estimates global CCS operations would need to scale up to 1 billion metric tons by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Current capacity sits at about 50 million metric tons.
The results of a new study may provide some good news for forests across America’s Northeast. The research, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, suggests the trees’ carbon storage capabilities remain stable even while temperatures are rising and the soil becomes more acidic due to nitrogen enrichment from burning fossil fuels. Previous studies have indicated that carbon storage declines in these conditions. But what makes this research different is that it looked at the effects of both conditions together, rather than separately. “What is most exciting about this study is that it’s one of the longest-running experiments to look at two global change pressures instead of just focusing on one,” said Melissa Knorr, a lab research supervisor in the University of New Hampshire’s College of Life Sciences and Agriculture and one of the study’s authors. The researchers say that these combined conditions seem to increase root turnover for the trees, helping maintain soil carbon levels. “The study offers insights that could inform conservation strategies to enhance carbon sequestration and preserve forest health across the Northeast,” Knorr said.
It can take as little as three seconds for playground equipment heated in direct sunlight on a hot day to burn a child’s skin.
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“We have to make deals now.”
Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii is one of the Senate’s climate hawks. Or — really — if you listen to his colleague, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, he’s one of the Senate’s “three climateers,” a group of relatively young (he’s 51) and relatively progressive Democratic senators from solidly blue states.
He’s also no fan of Republicans. You can check his account on the social network X (née Twitter), where he has written tens of thousands of posts, for confirmation of that.
But speaking with me in New York earlier this week, Schatz argued that the next stage of progress on climate change will require compromising with the opposing party. Democrats can make it easier to build and run nuclear power plants, enhanced geothermal wells, and long-distance transmission, he said, and those goals will be easiest to accomplish if they do it with Republicans.
“Until and unless we both have a trifecta and eliminate the filibuster, we are going to have to have a negotiation with people with whom we have pretty serious disagreements,” he told me.
Not that he’s endorsing a permitting reform bill. (He hasn’t yet gotten behind a compromise proposal from Senator Joe Manchin, an independent of West Virginia, and Senator John Barrasso, a Republican of Wyoming, although he called it a “serious effort.”) But he does want progressives — and especially old-school environmentalists — to understand that fighting climate change will mean building a new economy. “I just want to be clear that building the clean energy future that we want and need is not a rhetorical flourish,” he told me. “It means actual construction.”
Schatz is also co-chair of the Senate Climate Change Task Force and the Democratic caucus’s deputy whip. We recently sat down on the sidelines of New York Climate Week, where he met with climate investors, the UN Secretary General, and diplomats from small Pacific island nations. We discussed permitting reform, the 2024 election, and the next major Democratic climate bill — a so-called “Inflation Reduction Act 2.0” — might look like. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
When I see the phrase “IRA 2.0,” I think, wow, they’d be really lucky to get an IRA 2.0.
But we were really lucky to get a 1.0.
That’s right. So what would go into an IRA 2.0 as you’re thinking about it — under a presumed Harris administration here, right?
I have a bit of caution here, only because I think we did it so carefully last time, both on the policy side, but also in terms of building a coalition for the bill. As much as we think we know what the next step is, we still have to start over and do listening to Native communities, to labor, to environmental justice communities, to the traditional environmental organizations, to finance, to critical minerals. We have to go and canvass the universe of stakeholders, and start by listening rather than dropping a bill as a fait accompli.
So we’re in the beginning stages of that process. The only thing I’m attached to is [that] it should be as big as the first bill, and that we need to remain focused on emissions reductions as the first, second, and third priority.
Are there particular aspects of the first bill that now, several years later, you think, if we had another knock, we’d do it a little differently?
No, because I think that presumes that I had the pen. Nobody exactly had the pen. The pen was passed around, so it was all about the art of the possible. It was this very well constructed but — by necessity — heterogeneous thing, and I imagine it would be the same way again because we’re gonna have to get to 51 in the Senate and a majority in the House, as well. I do think there is a ton of progress to be made on nuclear. I think there’s a ton of progress to be made in enhanced geothermal. And obviously everybody’s well aware of what we need to do, um, in terms of [the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s] authority and transmission.
My own instinct is that the transmission stuff and the permitting reform stuff is not an IRA 2.0 play. I think we have at least a punter’s chance of getting it done this year, so I would not punt that to ‘only if we win the trifecta.’
How are you thinking about the Manchin-Barrasso permitting reform proposal? Senator Heinrich has endorsed it. There’s some trepidation among the traditional greens that it’s going to get worse via the House before passage, but it does tackle, in a bipartisan way, a lot of the stuff you were just citing — nuclear, geothermal, advanced geothermal. How are you weighing these different forces?
I think it’s a serious effort. And I think that on the transmission side, it would accomplish a lot. I think a lot of the folks who are opposed to this just don’t like the idea of compromising with John Barrasso.
And fair enough. John and I do not have a ton of common ground as it relates to energy policy, but until and unless we both have a trifecta and eliminate the filibuster, we are going to have to have a negotiation with people with whom we have pretty serious disagreements.
The way I always analyze these bills — from the ITC and PTC extension that was paired with the lifting of the oil export ban [in 2015], to the IRA, to the [Bipartisan Infrastructure Law] — is I let the science and the analysis tell me whether it’s a net positive. And it is preliminary data now from these modeling shops, but it’s encouraging.
Look, it’s a planetary emergency, and we are in the business of trying to build the clean energy future that we want and need. I just want to be clear that building the clean energy future that we want and need is not a rhetorical flourish — it means actual construction. And for someone who got his start in the environmental world, trying to prevent things from being built because I care about the planet, there has to be a shift in mindset towards building big things at scale. Otherwise, we’re going to fry our planet.
Now, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t certain places that are ecologically or culturally so significant that they should be left alone. But the problem is that a lot of the laws that we have, don’t simply protect our sacred places. They prevent wind farms from being built in parking lots. So I just think the environmental movement has to understand and internalize: Oh my goodness, this is an emergency. How fast can we go?
When I’ve talked to traditional greens about this, they don’t disagree that these laws are blocking stuff that we want to get built. They say, sure, but that the result of any negotiation with Republicans will produce a law that will result in worse outcomes.
Well, then I guess we’ll just twiddle our thumbs until the revolution comes. I’m serious. What are we gonna do?
There are some people who don’t want to enact anything because it’s within a capitalist model. Well, it seems to me that that conversation can be a very brief one, because we are in a capitalist model and we’re not going to allow the planet to burn while we wait for a different economic system.
And there are those who are imagining that at some point we’re gonna have 60 unreconstructed progressives [in the Senate] and a Democratic president, and boy, that sounds great. But my job is to make sure we enact laws to keep us on track towards avoiding climate catastrophe, and that means we have to make deals now.
How are you feeling about the 2024 election?
I don’t trust happiness, so I don’t know how I feel. But obviously our Senate candidates are holding up reasonably well. There are some tough ones — we have some really viable challengers now in Florida and Texas. I’m feeling optimistic, but not overly so.
Do you think the IRA survives a Republican trifecta?
I do. I do. I think there’s just too much money at stake, in too many red and blue states, that I would have a hard time seeing them repealing the thing. I think they might try to take a pound of flesh that is mostly symbolic in nature. But I think the foundation of the technology-neutral tax credits is not just unlikely to be repealed, but unlikely to be modified.
What happened when the brain behind Project 2025 took the stage at New York Climate Week.
New York Times readers were already aghast even before Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts — the man behind Project 2025 — took the stage at the outlet’s Climate Forward event, held during New York’s bustling Climate Week. Normally, this is when famous people including researcher Jane Goodall, Bangladeshi economist Muhammad Yunus, and Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe would discuss climate solutions before an audience of the thoughtful and well-heeled. Inviting Roberts violated that norm, which may have been the point — nothing draws eyeballs like outrage, and for the Times’ elite liberal readership, bringing Roberts to a climate discussion certainly counts as outrageous. But Roberts’ segment, in which he was interviewed by climate reporter David Gelles, was as revealing as anything the more friendly celebrities had to say.
Not because Gelles exposed Roberts for the climate denier he is, discrediting fossil fuel stooges once and for all. That’s what many hope for from this kind of encounter, but it almost never happens. Gelles did his best, but Roberts was more than up to the challenge of advocating the conservative approach to addressing the warming of the planet (or rather, not addressing it) to a hostile audience.
We’ve come a long way from the time when crude denialists like Senator Jim Inhofe were bringing snowballs to the Senate floor to show that global warming must be a hoax. Roberts said many things that were framed in ways seemingly designed to appeal to liberal principles — he defended scientific skepticism, and claimed that when Project 2025 proposes ending civil service protections for government employees so they can be replaced by political appointees, its intention is to depoliticize the government (“We don’t care whether they’re Democrats or Republicans; we actually want them to be objective”) — but he returned again and again to one conspiracy-tinged notion. Serious climate policy, he argued, is an attack not just by American elites, but rather by an entire global elite against ordinary people, whom they are immiserating with ill-considered ideas not based in science, or even in reality.
While it might seem ironic to hear the head of a think tank with a nine-figure annual budget that comes largely from corporate interests talking like a tribune of the common folk, that’s where Roberts began. He started with a punch in the nose, saying that while he was surprised to get the invitation from the Times, “I’ll go anywhere to talk about how the climate agenda is ending the American dream.” In response to the criticisms of Project 2025, he said, “Rather than take the well-funded agenda of elites in New York and Brussels and in the Chinese Communist Party, why don't we ask the American people?” And those struggling people, he insisted, are being harmed by the transition away from fossil fuels “far more than any of the harms that you would cite from so-called climate change.”
Does that mean he’s a climate denier? Heavens no. “That doesn’t mean that we’re rejecting that humans have an effect on climate; clearly they do,” he said. So climate change is real, but also maybe not; whatever perspective you like, you can decide Roberts agrees with you. He also claimed that according to Heritage’s irrefutable research, there’s just nothing we can do to stop that warming, which isn’t really a problem anyway. “Let’s just take all the ideas of everyone in this room and we implement them with a magic wand,” he said. “Our estimates show, what would the difference in temperature be? Zero point two three degrees Celsius. It's simply not going to make a difference.”
That kind of faux-precision is impossible to adjudicate in the moment, of course, which is why it can be so effective. This is another key theme for Roberts and others like him. “There is this thesis that if the United States leads on climate policy, the world will follow. That hasn't happened,” he said. “In fact, if we eliminate all emissions and pollution in the United States, it has an almost non-measurable impact on pollution and emissions worldwide.” That’s just false — the U.S. is still the second-largest carbon emitter in the world, after China — but if it were true, then why should we bother cutting our emissions, if doing so would have a “non-measurable impact”? There are no benefits, only costs.
The Biden administration, he said, “have made a grave mistake. They have taken the will of elites and they've imposed this on the American people.” And don’t think Roberts is an advocate for the corporate elites that pay his considerable salary; heck no, he’s just a humble reg’lar fella, thinking about the good honest folk who have no one to speak for them. “I see public policy through the lens of working-class people,” he insisted. “Our perspective at Heritage is on behalf of not just ordinary Americans but the global poor who are damaged by these policies.” The global poor.
What Roberts offers is climate denial without guilt. The details of increasing temperatures and their effects on people in the present and future are quickly minimized, then the focus shifts to imaginary harms to the vulnerable not from climate change but from climate action. Every emissions reduction proposal is dismissed as an indulgence of repugnant elitists, leaving only one moral alternative: to do nothing about climate change except burn more fossil fuels.
Presenting climate denial as an act of selflessness might seem appalling, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t attractive. If you want to hold to outright denialism, Roberts is with you. But if you admit that climate change is happening, he’s got you covered; what matters is that we shouldn’t do anything about it, because inaction is the real way to care for the vulnerable and fight back against the nefarious forces holding the world in their grip. The chutzpah is jaw-dropping, but it would be a mistake to think no one will find this argument attractive.
If you’re selling clean firm power, data centers are “the best news ever.”
There’s a simple and well-supported story to tell about the projected growth in electricity demand coming from data centers, population growth, and new factories, i.e. that it will boost the fossil fuel industry. When faced with the need for more electricity generation, utilities will simply build more natural gas power plants, and market overseers will act to ensure that aging gas and coal plants don’t get shut down. Some version of this story is already playing out in Arizona, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.
Many green activists are understandably wary of the data center boom, seeing it as a “unique opportunity for fossil fuel interests to get in while the getting is still good and turn a digital and industrial boom into yet another gas boom,” as the Natural Resources Defense Council said of Georgia, where a 15-times increase in projected electricity demand has Georgia Power scrambling for more fossil fuels.
However this is not the story I’ve been hearing this week in New York City, where thousands of government officials, climate activists, celebrities, investors, and executives have descended for the annual meeting-and-panel extravaganza that is Climate Week. For the Biden Administration officials, clean energy executives, and technological visionaries flitting between sponsored events, data center load growth is,as John F. Kennedy might have put it in one of his frequent flights of amateur Chinese linguistics, a danger and opportunity mixed into one.
“This can be a good-news story. The sky doesn’t necessarily need to be falling,” Kelly Sanders, assistant director for energy systems innovation at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said during a panel discussion hosted by the think tank Third Way, referring to load growth from manufacturing and data centers. “This could actually be good for clean energy.”
And very good for anyone who can promise to deliver said clean energy, even if it’s years in the future. During a “fireside chat” at Geothermal House, a day-long summit on geothermal energy sponsored by Project InnerSpace, a geothermal nonprofit, Mike Schroepfer, the former CTO of Meta who is now a climate venture investor, said the demand for power from AI was “the best news ever.” He argued that having companies with big power needs and deep pockets was much better for clean energy development than having a stagnant grid that’s just trying to replace dirty power plants.
Among those in the same rah-rah camp, the general idea is that energy-hungry data centers can help get new clean energy sources like advanced geothermal through the project finance "valley of death" so they can eventually deliver affordable, clean power to the rest of us. “For the first time in history, demand for clean energy outstrips supply,” said Ally Yost, a senior vice president at Commonwealth Fusion Systems, during a panel discussion in New York City. “Those that have access to that clean power will be in a very profitable situation.”
“AI is a gift for fusion,” added Clay Dumas, a partner at Lowercarbon Capital, a Commonwealth investor. He even conceded that the skyrocketing demand was a “gift for fission,” from which fusion advocates are typically at pains to distinguish themselves. “There’s an intense interest and demand for clean electrons,” he said, referencing the recent deal to bring back a shuttered reactor at Three Mile Island, alongside a power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
That investors and executives at fusion companies were talking about meeting projected load growth is a good sign of how heady the financial and technology prospects have gotten for anyone who has a good story to tell (and some capital). Fusion’s claim to be the holy grail of energy has passed over time from aspiration to irony and back again, thanks to billions piled into the industry in the past few years.
This combination of dreaminess and realism prevailed at Commonwealth’s event, where Dumas said that when he first invested in the company, “there was an exciting story of how fusion or a company like CFS could provide 5, 10, 20% of the world’s primary energy and could become the biggest company in the history of capitalism,” Dumas said. (Perhaps not surprisingly, several former SpaceX employees work at Commonwealth.) Now the focus is on getting a power plant developed with technology that the industry insists will be ready to go online on a reasonable timeframe — something more like a decade than the standard 20 or 30 years.
But whether you’re splitting atoms or fusing them, the demand for clean power from data centers is coming in months and years, not decades. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman reportedlytold the White House he wants to build 5-gigawatt data centers, which would take the equivalent of five large nuclear reactors to power. Even restarting an existing fission plant takes at least three years, while building a new one using existing typically takes around … well no one knows because there are no plans currently to do so.
“People are not going to be patient” if new clean power can’t be developed quickly, Juliann Edwards, the founder and chief development officer of The Nuclear Company, told me this week. “They're going to go build more gas plants.”
Kathleen Barrón, the chief strategy officer at Constellation, the country’s leading nuclear energy providers, said during the panel hosted by Third Way that conversations about new nuclear are “starting to happen,” and that the most important part of that process is coming up with a reasonable cost estimate. “Once you know what it costs, you can figure out what contributions will be,” she said, referring to the nasty problem of how to split up the expense among various stakeholders, including the government. Barrón pointed out that the second reactor at Vogtle was almost a third cheaper than the first — meaning that maybe the nuclear industry has a chance of getting a handle on costs. In the meantime, owners of existing plants will be happy to reopen and expand what they can, picking up generous incentives all along the way.
Edwards told me she’s been speaking with potential offtakers like Amazon and Meta, utilities, independent power producers, and investors in pursuit of having “binding contracts” for new plants by late 2026. But the hyperscalers committed to using clean power will need more than that.
Lucia Tian, a former official at the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office who now heads of clean energy and decarbonization technologies at Google, estimated that Google’s clean energy needs would be largely served from existing renewable technologies “that we can deploy at scale,” which, paired with storage, would get the company to around 80% of its needs. “But in order to get that last 20%, we need a suite of technologies including nuclear, long-duration energy storage, fossil generation with carbon capture and storage.”
Behind each of these promising technologies is a unique deployment issue. Geothermal might work in the western United States only, for instance, and even then not before the late 2020s. As for nuclear, outside of reopening shuttered plants and uprating existing ones, Tian said, “the reality that everyone recognizes” is that if “I sign a deal today” for a small modular reactor or the existing AP1000 design, “it’s not going to come online before 2030.” This leaves “a strong role for CCS,” she added, referring to using natural gas with carbon capture and storage, an approach strongly encouraged by new Environmental Protection Agency rules for gas plants, but one that is by no means widespread today.
Making progress on a technology that’s been in development for decades and still involves extracting and burning a fossil fuel doesn’t quite meet the futuristic moment the data center and artificial intelligence boom has created in the present.
“Every day someone asks, can’t you foot the billion dollar risk of a nuclear reactor?” Tian said. The future will have to wait a bit longer, but the data centers are coming now.