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Early last week, the view out my windows had become alluringly clear. The peaks of the San Gabriel Mountains that had been obscured by a cloud of smoke from the Eaton Fire that devastated the city of Altadena reappeared. The campfire smell had blown away — from this part of Los Angeles, at least. The landscape seemed to say, it’s safe to come outside.
Looks can be deceiving. One of the first days I ventured outside again, just to walk the dog down and back up our steep hill, I felt my throat burn by the time we arrived back at the house. That sensation, plus having a baby barely more than a year old, led my family to stay locked in for a few more days.
It’s tricky to know when it’s okay to return to the outdoors during an ongoing wildfire crisis. The area map on Watch Duty looks good: The 800-acre Hurst Fire up near Santa Clarita has been entirely controlled, and no new major blazes took hold in the L.A. area despite windy conditions on Monday. As I write this, the devastating Eaton Fire has now been 89% contained, and the Palisades has reached 63%. As early as the weekend after the fires started, when I was helping a family member clear broken tree branches in the San Gabriel Valley, the fire and its smoke were no longer visible over the horizon. By now, some residents have been allowed to return to areas now deemed safe.
Still, it may be a while before the traumatizing wildfires burn out entirely. Until they do, and even after, an undeniable level of uncertainty comes with every breath we take.
In my neighborhood, the Air Quality Index has been remarkably low over the past week. When consulting my phone’s Weather app and resources such as IQAir, measurements have been moderate or even good — in fact, better than the numbers posted on many perfectly normal L.A. days with no wildfires burning, when haze and smog still cloud the sky. As many people have discovered during these horrible fires, however, AQI is far from a perfect indicator of whether the air outside is okay. It might suffice on an ordinary morning for telling you whether it’s a good or bad day to go for a run, but it is not, on its own, able to account for the toxic soup that burned around L.A.
One of the major concerns about these fires that engulfed whole neighborhoods in Pacific Palisades and Altadena is that our homes, more than ever before, are full of plastic and other chemicals that become extra dangerous when burned. While AQI measures everyday problems like small particulate matter and smog, it doesn’t include pollutants like copper, plastic compounds, asbestos, and other things that might have gotten into Los Angeles’ air.
To find out exactly what chemicals came out of the Eaton Fire, Caltech professor Mike Brown (aka @plutokiller, after his role in the demotion of the former ninth planet) took ash from his house to campus to measure its chemical composition. (Note: My day job is at Caltech.) The result: titanium from new house paint, lead from old house paint, and lots of other heavy metals. “Treat that ash like it’s toxic folks,” he wrote on BlueSky, “(because it is).”
In and around devastated communities such as Altadena, it’s obvious one must proceed with extreme caution regarding the ash and the air itself. In other parts of the city, it’s hard to be sure. Neighbors of ours have resumed their communal daily dog walk, but with some hesitation about whether it’s okay to go outside maskless for even 30 minutes. When a sore throat or a headache comes on, we wonder whether the air is to blame. Before the fires, my family used to take a nightly dog walk of at least an hour, which now includes carrying the baby. Since she is too young to wear a mask, I don’t know when we'll feel that free again.
A small comfort is that, indoors at least, we were ready. Three air purifiers run round-the-clock in various parts of my house because of our proximity to a freeway and the general mediocrity of the Los Angeles air.
But, honestly, it sucks to sit inside in a place so beautiful. Winter in L.A. is gorgeous, full of cool but sunny days perfect for afternoon walks and hikes in places that would be too sun-drenched and blazing hot to visit in the summer. This winter, even with some rain finally in the forecast, our hikes are burned and our air is uncertain.
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Catching up with the American Council on Renewable Energy’s Ray Long.
Today’s chat is with Ray Long, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. We first discussed the odds of permitting reform a year and a half ago, for one of the first Q&As in The Fight. Flash forward and we’re still in the same situation, but now also wrestling with added demand for electricity to power data centers. I wanted to talk again about whether he thought the rise of artificial intelligence would increase the odds of some federal deal happening any time soon. The result: a wide-reaching conversation about the future of the electric grid, the struggles to win community buy-in and the sclerotic nature of the U.S. Congress.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
Do you think the buildout of our energy grid is entwined with the rise of the nation’s data center buildout?
When you look at what we need over the next four years — 166 gigawatts, 15 times the peak load of New York City — that’s a lot of power to build. Roughly half of that is for data center and AI growth.
There are five things we can build in the next four years at scale to address that collective amount. First, it’s transmission — the transmission buildout will help to get a modern grid to enable power flow to where it’s needed in a much more effective way. That’s the first step because if we just build all that power, the current grid can’t handle it.
Second, there are four supply technologies that can be built: solar, batteries, wind, and natural gas. All four of those technologies, we know there’s enough equipment here in the U.S. available for purchase that we can build at volume. And I’ll say this — natural gas is only about 10% of all those gigawatts because of the availability of turbines from suppliers. You can’t get enough over the next four years. So when I talk about decarbonization, most of what is built to address this issue is zero-carbon resources, renewable energy resources.
If you were to compare the current conversation around data center development to the debate over developing renewable energy in the U.S. — or energy in general — do you see any similarities or differences?
There are always issues with permitting projects. Communities are always going to have concerns about what’s built in their backyards.
What’s new — and your polling shows this — is the level of concern communities have. But here’s the thing: Most of this can be overcome by developers going in, listening to what the needs of the communities are, then responding and through the permitting process addressing those concerns. You can’t do that 100% of the time. But my experience is, when you take that sort of approach, you can overcome a lot of it.
Most of the large data centers are actually doing the things I’m discussing — going in and saying, Look, we want to be grid interconnected because grid connection at the end of the day means the resources we’re bringing to bear are also going to make a stronger grid. Number two, it's investing in power generation sources like the ones I said — and those power sources will be on the grid, so they’ll solve for the increased power demands of a community.
Third, water. They should bring the water solutions. You’re seeing data centers coming in and saying it head on now, that they have closed-loop systems or whatever the solution is. At the end of the day, the communities they’re proposing these in have a real negotiating opportunity to make sure they’re holding the data center developers accountable to the needs of the community.
For a community to say we don’t want it here misses a real opportunity for those communities to get the power they need, the grid they need, and the ability to bring down energy costs.
How is the data center debate affecting permitting reform conversations in Washington, from your perspective?
Permitting reform in the U.S. at the state and federal level has been broken for years. The SunZia transmission project? It took 17 years to permit. Ribbon-cutting is in a week or two and there’s still litigation around it. From a business perspective, it’s just untenable, and it’s a miracle that the project is getting built. Developers need a chance to come in and have their project evaluated. Both the community and the developer should be able to get to a go or no-go in a couple of years on one of these projects.
How is data center growth affecting the permitting reform discussion? It’s a very hot issue right now. Right now I think in part because the data center issue is so huge — because we’ve only got four years to solve for the first really big tranche of power we need and prices across the board for electricity are escalating — this is coming to a head. The data center load is a part of the catalyst to get people talking about it [permitting reform].
Do you expect legislating in Congress on permitting reform this year? Anything beyond more conversation?
My hope is that we get a bill. A few weeks ago someone from the administration was quoted as saying they wanted a framework for a bill by the end of May, and it’s June now. We haven’t seen both sides or the administration coalesce around a final project yet.
We’re in a midterm election cycle. Typically it’s very difficult during these cycles to move bills like this. At the same time, with electricity prices increasing and the need to build more, to fix this, I’m very hopeful something will come together. And look at the Senate — you’ve got Republicans and the Democratic ranking members talking about this. It’s all good signs.
If everyone’s talking about energy and affordability during this election, isn’t that a good thing for action in the next Congress?
I’ll say this: You’re seeing the catalyst for it right now with prices rising, and almost every grid operator around the country has raised concerns about shortages at some point this year or next year. It’ll hopefully be enough to have policymakers do something about it this year.
Plus more of week’s biggest development fights.
1. Ohio — This state might just be the most important flashpoint in the national fight over advanced energy and tech infrastructure.
2. Laramie County, Wyoming — The Cowboy State’s capital city is one of the few to reject a data center moratorium. But tech companies. don’t get your hopes up too high.
3. Los Angeles County, California — Elsewhere, we saw the first city in California vote to ban data centers … once and for all.
4. Charles County, Maryland — This populous county south of D.C. is now out of reach for data center development.
5. Baldwin County, Alabama — There will be a vote at the end of this month on whether to ban solar in the county whose opposition nearly prompted a statewide moratorium on development.
6. Hopkins County, Texas — I have one last update related to a large data center legal fight we’ve been covering closely.
The national AI data center moratorium has momentum.
As I’ve been documenting for months here at The Fight, data center opposition is surging across the country. Our latest Heatmap Pro poll puts some very hard numbers behind that picture. More than 7 in 10 Americans oppose new data center construction near where they live, up from just over 4 in 10 last fall. Part of what’s driving that opposition: More than half of respondents hold data centers largely responsible for rising electricity prices, and nearly half are pessimistic about the effect artificial intelligence will have on their lives.
Here’s yet another data point from our poll that underscores the intensity of the opposition: A majority of Americans now say they support a nationwide halt to new data center construction.
Digging into demographics, support for a national AI data center moratorium breaks predictably based on age and gender — younger people are more likely to back the idea, as are women. Americans are just as likely to back moratoria in their own states as they are a national stop to development, indicating the public relations rot may run deep amongst its critics in the public.
The notion of an AI data center moratorium comes from the political left, specifically Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who introduced the first bill to enact such a pause earlier this year. Yet its appeal straddles political lines. Among Democrats, 66% said they’d back a national moratorium, compared to just 19% opposed; in the Republican camp, 55% said they backed the idea, compared to 28% opposed. Independents echoed those views as well, with answers falling neatly in between the two sides (58% support, 21% oppose).
The surge in support for a country-wide stop to new data centers stands in contrast to the more hesitant attitude politicians of all stripes have shown toward the opposition movement. That includes the White House, which until this week embraced a deregulatory approach to fostering AI tech before abruptly changing course this week and seeking early access to new models.
A good example of this political distance exists in Missouri, where Republican Governor Mike Kehoe last month proudly declared that Google was investing $15 billion in a hyperscale data center project in the rural town of New Florence in Montgomery County. After Kehoe’s announcement, the White House’s rapid response media account joined in on celebrating this economic investment, touting the potential for “thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs” from the Google project.
Among the hoi polloi, however, discontent was rife. This was actually the second large data center project in New Florence, and locals in and around this town of fewer than 1,000 residents have been busy suing the county to halt a separate Amazon data center proposed directly across from Google’s project.
Montgomery County is incredibly conservative politically and “has voted red since I can’t even remember,” Sabrina Cope, an organizer with opposition group Preserve Montgomery County, told me over the phone. “They’re turning up their nose at the White House’s support for these kinds of projects. This isn’t an issue solely Democrats or Republicans are upset about.” (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)
The political mismatch here is also bipartisan.
In New York, state legislators on Thursday passed legislation to enact a one-year pause on new data center permitting. The bill now goes to the desk of New York’s governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul, who has signaled she’s against a broad moratorium. “This is a local decision for municipalities,” Hochul told reporters last month, according to a Politico report. “It’s not a statewide approach, necessarily, but it’s something I’m looking at intensely.”
The scene in the Empire State feels eerily similar to what happened in the Pine Tree State when Maine Democrats sought to enact a moratorium, only to be stymied by a veto from Governor Janet Mills, also a Democrat. Should Hochul spurn the state legislature, it would defy what our polls say is the overwhelming political opinion.
Our poll also found rural voters are almost 10 points more likely than suburban and urban denizens to support a moratorium on new data centers. Knowing how often land use conflicts occur in upstate New York, where voters skew Republican, the yeoman’s calculus in both parties might lead more politicians to support temporarily stopping or stalling data center industry growth.
In Illinois, we’re starting to see policy start to align at least a little more closely with what Democratic voters want. On Friday, Governor J.B. Pritzker announced he would pause data center tax breaks and ask the state legislature to enact a new statute governing the industry’s water and energy use as well as deployment of non-disclosure agreements. If Illinois is a harbinger of things to come in blue states, we’ll see more action like this.