The Bleak Future of the National Climate Assessment

Current conditions: Severe weather warnings continue through this evening in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota, with strong tornadoes remaining a possible threat • It will be 85 degrees Fahrenheit in Washington, D.C. today, about 14 degrees above average • Late afternoon thunderstorms are expected in Ottawa, where Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is out of a job after Monday’s snap election, which also saw Liberal Mark Carney elected to a full term as Canada’s prime minister.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump administration fires all authors of the National Climate Assessment

On Monday, the Trump administration dismissed all of the nearly 400 contributors to the National Climate Assessment, the congressionally mandated review of how global warming impacts the United States. According to the termination email, the Sixth Climate Assessment, due out in 2028, is “being reevaluated” by the administration, although one former contributor pointed out to The New York Times that “if you get rid of all the people involved, nothing’s moving forward.”

The move follows a series of targeted attacks by the Trump administration on the country’s ability to monitor the impacts of climate change, including the termination of contracts with global research partners and the reduction of funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which the conservative policy blueprint Project 2025 has described as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.” Erin Sikorsky, the director of the Center for Climate and Security, slammed the decision on Bluesky, writing, “Pretending climate risks don’t exist doesn’t make them go away, unfortunately. This move puts Americans, our communities, and our security at risk.”

As we’ve covered at Heatmap, the Fifth Climate Assessment, published in 2023, contained a grim accounting of the stakes: that “every region in the world is projected to face further increases in climate hazards” without “urgent, effective, and equitable” progress away from our current rate of greenhouse gas emissions.”

2. Automaker group pushes lawmakers to revoke the California waiver

On Monday, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation sent a letter to every member of the House of Representatives, urging them to repeal the Environmental Protection Agency’s waiver for California to set vehicle emissions standards stricter than the federal government’s when the matter goes to a vote this week. The Washington D.C.-based trade association, which represents Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and others, argued that companies were being “forced to substantially reduce the number of overall vehicles for sale to inflate their proportion of electric vehicles sales.”

Many are skeptical that Congress actually has the authority to revoke the waiver under the Congressional Review Act; the Government Accountability Office and Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough have both stated that the waiver does not fall into the category of “rules” that the CRA can block. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation remains hopeful, however, going on to refer erroneously to the waiver as a “gas vehicle ban” and adding that it will “reduce vehicle choices for consumers across the country at precisely the same time they are adjusting to the marketplace shock of 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.”

3. Tesla says it’s on track to produce its first semi trucks by the end of the year

Tesla

Tesla announced Monday that it plans to produce its Semi electric trucks at its Nevada gigafactory campus by the end of the year. “We’ll be ramping the factory throughout 2026,” Dan Priestley, the head of Tesla’s Semi program, said in a video posted to Twitter, adding that the factory can produce as many as 50,000 units per year. Tesla first scheduled production to begin in 2019, with CEO Elon Musk subsequently promising in 2022 that 50,000 Semis would be in production by 2024.

If Congress votes to repeal California’s ability to set stricter car and truck pollution standards, however, it could take a big bite out of the anticipated demand for the Semis. Separately, Massachusetts earlier this month postponed enforcement of its rule requiring manufacturers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to sell an increasing number of zero-emission vehicles beginning in 2025.

4. EPA looks for more takers on voluntary retirements

Employees at the Environmental Protection Agency received an email Monday offering them another opportunity to take a voluntary retirement or a deferred resignation, USA Today reports. The agency has already reduced its staff by at least 1,000 workers as part of the administration’s efforts to downsize the federal workforce; current employees have until May 5 to accept one of the two new options. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has previously said he intends to cut the agency’s spending by 65%. At the same time, Russ Vought, the influential head of the Office of Management and Budget, has taken a particularly aggressive attitude toward the EPA, stating in a 2023 speech, “We want their funding to be shut down so that the EPA can’t do all of the rules against our energy industry because they have no bandwidth financially to do so. We want to put them in trauma.”

5. Climate change will make ‘the big one’ worse: study

When the long overdue Cascadia earthquake eventually strikes the northwest coast of the United States, the entire coastline could drop by nearly 7 feet — which suggests not only that more than twice the number of people and structures are at risk than originally thought, but also that said risk will continue to worsen over the next 75 years due climate change-driven sea-level rise. That’s according to new research published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which also found that following such an earthquake, flooding events along the coast could dramatically worsen. “The land persists down” after an event of such a magnitude, and it can last for decades or centuries, meaning “any areas that are kind of on the cusp of the floodplain are now it,” lead author Tina Dura told NBC News.

As I’ve previously reported for Heatmap, there is additional increased danger in the event of the Cascadia earthquake — known colloquially as “the Big One” — due to the recent cuts at NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In the immediate aftermath of the expected earthquake, the Washington and Oregon coasts will be hit by a massive tsunami, the damage of which will also increase as sea levels rise. Seismologists estimate a 15% chance that a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake will strike the region within the next 50 years.

THE KICKER

New England recorded its lowest ever electricity demand on its six-state regional grid on Sunday, thanks in part to the region’s many “behind-the-meter” rooftop solar resources.