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Climate

Are America’s New Emissions Targets Strong Enough?

On Biden’s big announcement, Montana’s climate case, and the murder hornet

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Are America’s New Emissions Targets Strong Enough?
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Temperatures across western states are between 10 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit above seasonal averages • A temple in Thailand collapsed after unrelenting heavy rain • It’s hot and humid on the remote Caribbean island of Sombrero, where a lizard that was facing extinction six years ago has made a remarkable comeback thanks to conservation efforts.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Biden unveils tougher emissions targets in new NDC

In one of his last major environmental moves before leaving office, President Biden today announced a new climate plan for the United States that includes tougher emissions targets.

  • The old goal: Reduce all emissions by 50% to 52% (compared to 2005 levels) by 2030.
  • The new goals: Cut all emissions across the economy by 61% to 66% by 2035, curb methane specifically by at least 35%, and become net zero by 2050.

All countries under the Paris Agreement are required to submit updated climate plans – or nationally determined contributions (NDC) – by February of next year. While the new goal is an improvement, it is “at the lower bound of what the science demands and yet it is close to the upper bound of what is realistic if nearly every available policy lever were pulled,” said Debbie Weyle, U.S. acting director of the World Resources Institute. “Assertive action by states and cities will be essential to achieving this goal.” The Climate Action Tracker project calculates that the U.S. must cut total emissions by at least 62% below 2005 levels by 2030 to be compatible with a goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. President-elect Trump is expected to take the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once again.

2. Montana Supreme Court sides with youth climate activists in landmark case

The Montana Supreme Court yesterday handed a win to a group of 16 youth climate activists, upholding a lower court’s ruling in the landmark Held V. Montana case that the state was violating residents’ constitutional right to a clean environment by permitting fossil fuel projects without considering the climate consequences. The state had argued that its greenhouse gases were a drop in the bucket compared to global emissions, with negligible effects on the climate, but in a 6-1 ruling, the justices disagreed and affirmed the lower court’s decision. “Montana’s right to a clean and healthful environment and environmental life support system includes a stable climate system,” chief justice Mike McGrath wrote.

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3. EPA approves California’s 2035 gas car ban

The Environmental Protection Agency this week gave the green light for California to enforce its ban on sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035. About a dozen other states, plus some major automakers, adhere to California’s strict vehicle emission standards, so the decision could have broad implications. But it also is likely to be revoked by the incoming Trump administration, and a long court battle could ensue.

4. Report: Off-grid solar and storage could power AI data centers

A new report from a group of leading climate tech and microgrid development firms examined the feasibility of using off-grid solar and storage to provide clean power for AI data centers. It found solar microgrids would cost nearly the same as using off-grid natural gas turbines, could be built on a shorter timeline as opposed to rolling out new grid connections, and are “enormously scalable.” “We found that there is enough available land in the southwest U.S. alone that is close to roads and gas pipelines to build 1,200 gigawatts of offgrid solar microgrid data center capacity, far more than will be needed for the foreseeable future,” said Zeke Hausfather, lead climate researcher at Stripe. Here’s a look at the varying “time to operation” estimates from the report:

OffgridAI

And speaking of data centers, Oklo, a nuclear startup chaired by Open AI’s Sam Altman, has secured a 20-year agreement to supply power to data center operator Switch Inc. Under the deal, Oklo will build small modular reactors that can supply up to 12 gigawatts of electricity and come online by 2030. Caveat: The Financial Times noted that the deal “is non-binding and the company’s technology is years from production.”

5. Trump advised to nix environmental reviews for some mining projects

President-elect Trump’s advisers are telling him to let federally funded critical minerals projects go ahead without environmental reviews, Reuters reported. Nixing the review process currently required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) could speed up mining projects and help cut U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals used in clean tech like electric vehicles, but it could also allow developers to ignore climate change and environmental justice considerations.

THE KICKER

The invasive “murder hornet” has been eradicated from the U.S.

Karen Ducey/Getty Images

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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Red
Daily Briefing

Think Congress Is Slow? Meet the Power Sector.

BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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Blue
AM Briefing

Neutral, at Worst

On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating in the Pacific near Hawaii, is arriving in the Southwest laden with heavy rain that’s set to flood the region • Indonesia has the worst air quality in the world as forest fires rage along Sumatra’s southern coast • A cross-country storm will soak much of the United States on Tuesday’s Election Day.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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Blue