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Climate

Are America’s New Emissions Targets Strong Enough?

On Biden’s big announcement, Montana’s climate case, and the murder hornet

Are America’s New Emissions Targets Strong Enough?
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Temperatures across western states are between 10 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit above seasonal averages • A temple in Thailand collapsed after unrelenting heavy rain • It’s hot and humid on the remote Caribbean island of Sombrero, where a lizard that was facing extinction six years ago has made a remarkable comeback thanks to conservation efforts.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Biden unveils tougher emissions targets in new NDC

In one of his last major environmental moves before leaving office, President Biden today announced a new climate plan for the United States that includes tougher emissions targets.

  • The old goal: Reduce all emissions by 50% to 52% (compared to 2005 levels) by 2030.
  • The new goals: Cut all emissions across the economy by 61% to 66% by 2035, curb methane specifically by at least 35%, and become net zero by 2050.

All countries under the Paris Agreement are required to submit updated climate plans – or nationally determined contributions (NDC) – by February of next year. While the new goal is an improvement, it is “at the lower bound of what the science demands and yet it is close to the upper bound of what is realistic if nearly every available policy lever were pulled,” said Debbie Weyle, U.S. acting director of the World Resources Institute. “Assertive action by states and cities will be essential to achieving this goal.” The Climate Action Tracker project calculates that the U.S. must cut total emissions by at least 62% below 2005 levels by 2030 to be compatible with a goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. President-elect Trump is expected to take the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once again.

2. Montana Supreme Court sides with youth climate activists in landmark case

The Montana Supreme Court yesterday handed a win to a group of 16 youth climate activists, upholding a lower court’s ruling in the landmark Held V. Montana case that the state was violating residents’ constitutional right to a clean environment by permitting fossil fuel projects without considering the climate consequences. The state had argued that its greenhouse gases were a drop in the bucket compared to global emissions, with negligible effects on the climate, but in a 6-1 ruling, the justices disagreed and affirmed the lower court’s decision. “Montana’s right to a clean and healthful environment and environmental life support system includes a stable climate system,” chief justice Mike McGrath wrote.

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  • 3. EPA approves California’s 2035 gas car ban

    The Environmental Protection Agency this week gave the green light for California to enforce its ban on sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035. About a dozen other states, plus some major automakers, adhere to California’s strict vehicle emission standards, so the decision could have broad implications. But it also is likely to be revoked by the incoming Trump administration, and a long court battle could ensue.

    4. Report: Off-grid solar and storage could power AI data centers

    A new report from a group of leading climate tech and microgrid development firms examined the feasibility of using off-grid solar and storage to provide clean power for AI data centers. It found solar microgrids would cost nearly the same as using off-grid natural gas turbines, could be built on a shorter timeline as opposed to rolling out new grid connections, and are “enormously scalable.” “We found that there is enough available land in the southwest U.S. alone that is close to roads and gas pipelines to build 1,200 gigawatts of offgrid solar microgrid data center capacity, far more than will be needed for the foreseeable future,” said Zeke Hausfather, lead climate researcher at Stripe. Here’s a look at the varying “time to operation” estimates from the report:

    OffgridAI

    And speaking of data centers, Oklo, a nuclear startup chaired by Open AI’s Sam Altman, has secured a 20-year agreement to supply power to data center operator Switch Inc. Under the deal, Oklo will build small modular reactors that can supply up to 12 gigawatts of electricity and come online by 2030. Caveat: The Financial Times noted that the deal “is non-binding and the company’s technology is years from production.”

    5. Trump advised to nix environmental reviews for some mining projects

    President-elect Trump’s advisers are telling him to let federally funded critical minerals projects go ahead without environmental reviews, Reuters reported. Nixing the review process currently required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) could speed up mining projects and help cut U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals used in clean tech like electric vehicles, but it could also allow developers to ignore climate change and environmental justice considerations.

    THE KICKER

    The invasive “murder hornet” has been eradicated from the U.S.

    Karen Ducey/Getty Images

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    Hotspots

    More Turbulence for Washington State’s Giant Wind Farm

    And more of the week’s top news around development conflicts.

    The United States.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    1. Benton County, Washington – The bellwether for Trump’s apparent freeze on new wind might just be a single project in Washington State: the Horse Heaven wind farm.

    • Intrepid Fight readers should remember that late last year Rep. Dan Newhouse, an influential Republican in the U.S. House, called on the FAA to revoke its “no hazard” airspace determinations for Horse Heaven, claiming potential impacts to commercial airspace and military training routes.
    • Publicly it’s all been crickets since then with nothing from the FAA or the project developer, Scout Clean Energy. Except… as I was reporting on the lead story this week, I discovered a representative for Scout Clean Energy filed in January and March for a raft of new airspace determinations for the turbine towers.
    • There is no public record of whether or not the previous FAA decisions were revoked and the FAA declined to comment on the matter. Scout Clean Energy did not respond to a request for comment on whether there had been any setbacks with the agency or if the company would still be pursuing new wind projects amidst these broader federal airspace issues. It’s worth noting that Scout Clean Energy had already reduced the number of towers for the project while making them taller.
    • Horse Heaven is fully permitted by Washington state but those approvals are under litigation. The Washington Supreme Court in June will hear arguments brought by surrounding residents and the Yakima Nation against allowing construction.

    2. Box Elder County, Utah – The big data center fight of the week was the Kevin O’Leary-backed project in the middle of the Utah desert. But what actually happened?

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    Q&A

    What the ‘Eco Right’ Wants from Permitting Reform

    A conversation with Nick Loris of C3 Solutions

    The Fight Q&A subject.
    Heatmap Illustration

    This week’s conversation is with Nick Loris, head of the conservative policy organization C3 Solutions. I wanted to chat with Loris about how he and others in the so-called “eco right” are approaching the data center boom. For years, groups like C3 have occupied a mercurial, influential space in energy policy – their ideas and proposals can filter out into Congress and state legislation while shaping the perspectives of Republican politicians who want to seem on the cutting edge of energy and the environment. That’s why I took note when in late April, Loris and other right-wing energy wonks dropped a set of “consumer-first” proposals on transmission permitting reform geared toward addressing energy demand rising from data center development. So I’m glad Loris was available to lay out his thoughts with me for the newsletter this week.

    The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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    Spotlight

    How to Get Away with Murdering an Energy Industry

    And future administrations will learn from his extrajudicial success.

    Donald Trump and wind turbines.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    President Donald Trump is now effectively blocking any new wind projects in the United States, according to the main renewables trade group, using the federal government’s power over all things air and sky to grind a routine approval process to a screeching halt.

    So far, almost everything Trump has done to target the wind energy sector has been defeated in court. His Day 1 executive order against the wind industry was found unconstitutional. Each of his stop work orders trying to shut down wind farms were overruled. Numerous moves by his Interior Department were ruled illegal.

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