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There’s a lot more big talk than reactor-building going on.
America’s technology companies need power, and lots of it.
Artificial intelligence combined with still-growing internet and smartphone use will likely require a game-changing investment in data centers — one that its already showing up in huge projected increases for electricity demand across the country. At the same time, many technology companies want to procure and invest in clean power, while many states have clean energy goals that may make it difficult to add new load to the grid without a corresponding investment in clean generation. All told, the Department of Energy estimates that some 700 to 900 gigawatts of new clean firm capacity — energy generation that doesn’t emit greenhouse gases and can run 24 hours a day — will be necessary to build a fully decarbonized grid. Even in the real world, technology companies are interested in acquiring whatever clean power they can.
This is where the nuclear industry would love to step in, specifically the segment of the industry making small modular reactors, otherwise known as SMRs. These reactors, which promise to be cheaper, smaller, and faster to build than the existing nuclear fleet, seem like an ideal match for what technology companies need. What could be better for data centers than on-site power (meaning no transmission costs) that runs all day (meaning no intermittency issues) with no carbon emissions (meaning no climate worries)? And if those nuclear power plants could be built quickly and cheaply out of pre-fabricated parts, all the better, right?
Whether SMRs actually can step in, well ... “If I had every agreement in principle SMRs have signed, I could walk from here to Europe without getting my feet wet,” Dan Yurman, the publisher of Neutron Bytes and a former project manager at the Idaho National Laboratory, told me.
The issue is that the most optimistic timeline for commercial deployment of SMRs starts in the late 2020s, with most observers putting actual deployment into sometimes in the 2030s. All the while, demand for data centers is growing now and is projected to accelerate sharply in the next few years.
As of today only a handful of small modular reactors are currently operational anywhere in the world, and none in the United States. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which governs all civilian nuclear construction in the country, has so far approved just one SMR design; NuScale, the company behind said design, recently laid off almost a third of its employees after its deal to build a power plant in Utah for a collection of local utilities fell through due to rising costs.
That approval process cost $500 million and took around five years, according to the Wall Street Journal — and, of course, NuScale has yet to get a functioning reactor out of it. The company is currently in the process of getting the go-ahead on a more powerful version of its existing design, which the company’s chief executive said could be approved “within 24 months.”
On paper, however, enthusiasm for co-locating SMRs with data centers and industrial sites abounds. Despite the collapse of the Utah project, during an earnings call this month, NuScale eagerly talked up a partnership with Standard Power to provide 2 gigawatts of electricity to data centers in Ohio and Pennsylvania. While its shares are down around 50% for the past 12 months, they are up about 35% (albeit to around $4.20) since the end of last year. In its presentation to investors, NuScale cited estimates that data center electricity consumption would triple by the beginning of the next decade.
“Management is quite enthusiastic around its opportunity with data center operators, noting that it's in discussions with large players as electricity demand accelerates via the AI buildout,” Ryan Pfingst and Chris Souther, two analysts for B. Riley Securities, wrote in a note to clients following the release of NuScale’s earnings report.
That enthusiasm notwithstanding, it’s not clear how far along the Standard Power project is. “A project of this size has a significant amount of detail that’s confirmed and structured before a project begins construction and those discussions are ongoing,” NuScale CEO John Hopkins told analysts on the company’s most recent earnings call. Standard Power did not return a request for comment asking for more details on the financing or construction timeline for its project. When asked for an update from NuScale, a spokesperson referred me to the earnings call.
Meanwhile, in Surry County, Virginia, work is advancing on a project adjacent to the existing Surry nuclear plant. The project would combine data centers, small modular reactors, and hydrogen fuel production; the data centers would come first, with SMRs following once costs come down, according to Michael Hewitt, the co-founder and chief executive officer of IP3, the project’s developer.
For Hewitt, the model for SMR deployment is to build them in factories and scale them directly for end users. “That’s the future of energy: If I want a gigawatt of data center, I build SMRs for the data center on day one,” he told me.
Which company will get there first? “If I had to guess right now, in terms of what will be factory-built first and available to consumers like us, it will more than likely be a light water reactor design — GE, NuScale, or perhaps Rolls-Royce,” Hewitt said. GE’s SMR design, the BWRX-300, is in the pre-application process with the NRC, and was picked by Ontario Power Generation for a nuclear development on its existing Darlington site. The Rolls-Royce SMR has been advancing through the British regulatory and procurement process, while the company currently designs light-water reactors for the Royal Navy.
“The first guy to get the factory built is the winner,” Hewitt said. But none will likely be ready for the Virginia project, at least not within the next eight to 10 years, though, he added. Nevertheless, urgent interest persists.
On Tuesday, Google, Microsoft, and the steel company Nucor announced that they were forming a group that would commit to purchasing clean firm technologies and included in its laundry list of potential power sources advanced nuclear. Another advanced nuclear developer, TerraPower, which is backed by Microsoft’s founder Bill Gates, announced Tuesday that it was applying for a construction permit for a plant in Wyoming and plans to start building non-nuclear portions of it in June. The company expects the full plant to come online in 2030.
There are dozens of other SMR designs at various stage of realization, but the absolute fastest a new design could get online, according to Adam Stein of the Breakthrough Institute, is around four years. “If a developer has not already submitted an application to the NRC to build a power plant — which none of them have for a specific site — then they mostly likely would not be able to operate a power plant before 2028,” Stein told me. “That is the soonest it could happen.”
That said, “If there’s more urgency from the market, a clearer and larger demand signal, then developers will move faster than they are right now,” Stein added.
What’s far more likely, according to Yurman, is that tech companies will sign power purchase agreements for existing nuclear power plants, as Amazon has with Talen Energy. “That’s immediate access to reliable power,” Yurman said.
And even if SMRs are actually built, they may not end up adjacent to data centers, but instead on the sites of existing nuclear and even coal plants (this is the plan for the TerraPower site) which have preexisting grid connections. “If I’m putting together this kind of deal,” Yurman told me, “I’m looking at an old coal power plant I can demolish and keep the grid connection.”
While American tech companies are eager to buy up new power, the real opportunity, should it ever come, may be overseas, where smaller countries without indigenous energy supplies could be especially interested in nuclear power.
“What we need to do is get to full rate production and start stamping out SMRs with low risk,” Hewitt said. “If we do that, we can take these things everywhere.”
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Removing the subsidies would be bad enough, but the chaos it would cause in the market is way worse.
In their efforts to persuade Republicans in Congress not to throw wind and solar off a tax credit cliff, clean energy advocates have sometimes made what would appear to be a counterproductive argument: They’ve emphasized that renewables are cheap and easily obtainable.
Take this statement published by Advanced Energy United over the weekend: “By effectively removing tax credits for some of the most affordable and easy-to-build energy resources, Congress is all but guaranteeing that consumers will be burdened with paying more for a less reliable electric grid.”
If I were a fiscal hawk, a fossil fuel lobbyist, or even an average non-climate specialist, I’d take this as further evidence that renewables don’t need tax credits. The problem is that there’s a lot more nuance to the “cheapness” of renewables than snappy statements like this convey.
“Renewables are cheap and they’ve gotten cheaper, but that doesn’t mean they are always the cheapest thing, unsubsidized,” Robbie Orvis, the senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation, told me back in May at the start of the reconciliation process. Natural gas is still competitive with renewables in a lot of markets — either where it’s less windy or sunny, where natural gas is particularly cheap, or where there are transmission constraints, for example.
Just because natural gas plants might be cheaper to build in those places, however, doesn’t mean they will save customers money in the long run. Utilities pass fuel costs through to customers, and fuel costs can swing dramatically. That’s what happened in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe swore off Russian gas, and the U.S. rushed to fill the supply gap, spiking U.S. natural gas prices and contributing to the largest annual increase in residential electricity spending in decades. Winter storms can also reduce natural gas production, causing prices to shoot up. Wind and solar, of course, do not use conventional fuels. The biggest factor influencing the price of power from renewables is the up-front cost of building them.
That’s not the only benefit that’s not reflected in the price tags of these resources. The Biden administration and previous Congress supported tax credits for wind and solar to achieve the policy goal of reducing planet-warming emissions and pollution that endangers human health. But Orvis argued you don’t even need to talk about climate change or the environment to justify the tax credits.
“We’re not saying let’s go tomorrow to wind, water, and solar,” Orvis said. “We’re saying these bring a lot of benefitsonto the system, and so more of them delivers more of those benefits, and incentives are a good way to do that.” Another benefit Orvis mentioned is energy security — because again, wind and solar don’t rely on globally-traded fuels, which means they’re not subject to the actions of potentially adversarial governments.
Orvis’ colleague, Mike O’Boyle, also raised the point that fossil fuels receive subsidies, too, both inside and outside the tax code. There’s the “intangible drilling costs” deduction, allowing companies to deduct most costs associated with drilling, like labor and site preparation. Smaller producers can also take a “depletion deduction” as they draw down their oil or gas resources. Oil and gas developers also benefit from low royalty rates for drilling on public lands, and frequently evade responsibility to clean up abandoned wells. “I think in many ways, these incentives level the playing field,” O’Boyle said.
When I reached out to some of the clean energy trade groups trying to negotiate a better deal in Trump’s tax bill, many stressed that they were most worried about upending existing deals and were not, in fact, calling for wind and solar to be subsidized indefinitely. “The primary issue here is about the chaos this bill will cause by ripping away current policy overnight,” Abigail Ross Hopper, the CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, told me by text message.
The latest version of the bill, introduced late Friday night, would require projects to start construction by 2027 and come online by 2028 to get any credit at all. Projects would also be subject to convoluted foreign sourcing rules that will make them more difficult, if not impossible, to finance. Those that fail the foreign sourcing test would also be taxed.
Harry Godfrey, managing director for Advanced Energy United, emphasized the need for “an orderly phase-out on which businesses can follow through on sound investments that they’ve already made.” The group supports an amendment introduced by Senators Joni Ernst, Lisa Murkowski, and Chuck Grassley on Monday that would phase down the tax credit over the next two years and safe harbor any project that starts construction during that period to enable them to claim the credit regardless of when they begin operating.
“Without these changes, the bill as drafted will retroactively change tax policy on projects in active development and construction, stranding billions in private investment, killing tens of thousands of jobs, and shrinking the supply of new generation precisely when we need it the most,” Advanced Energy United posted on social media.
In the near term, wind and solar may not need tax credits to win over natural gas. Energy demand is rising rapidly, and natural gas turbines are in short supply. Wind and solar may get built simply because they can be deployed more quickly. But without the tax credits, whatever does get built is going to be more expensive, experts say. Trade groups and clean energy experts have also warned that upending the clean energy pipeline will mean ceding the race for AI and advanced manufacturing to China.
Godfrey compared the reconciliation bill’s rapid termination of tax credits to puncturing the hull of a ship making a cross-ocean voyage. You’ll either need a big fix, or a new ship, but “the delay will mean we’re not getting electrons on to the grid as quickly as we need, and the company that was counting on that first ship is left in dire straits, or worse.”
A new subsidy for metallurgical coal won’t help Trump’s energy dominance agenda, but it would help India and China.
Crammed into the Senate’s reconciliation bill alongside more attention-grabbing measures that could cripple the renewables industry in the U.S. is a new provision to amend the Inflation Reduction Act to support metallurgical coal, allowing producers to claim the advanced manufacturing tax credit through 2029. That extension alone could be worth up to $150 million a year for the “beautiful clean coal” industry (as President Trump likes to call it), according to one lobbyist following the bill.
Putting aside the perversity of using a tax credit from a climate change bill to support coal, the provision is a strange one. The Trump administration has made support for coal one of the centerpieces of its “energy dominance” strategy, ordering coal-fired power plants to stay open and issuing a raft of executive orders to bolster the industry. President Trump at one point even suggested that the elite law firms that have signed settlements with the White House over alleged political favoritism could take on coal clients pro bono.
But metallurgical coal is not used for electricity generation, it’s used for steel-making. Moreover, most of the metallurgical coal the U.S. produces gets exported overseas. In other words, cheaper metallurgical coal would do nothing for American energy dominance, but it would help other countries pump up their production of steel, which would then compete with American producers.
The new provision “has American taxpayers pay to send metallurgical coal to China so they can make more dirty steel and dump it on the global market,” Jane Flegal, the former senior director for industrial emissions in the Biden White House, told me.
The U.S. produced 67 million short tons of metallurgical coal in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, more than three-quarters of which was shipped abroad. Looking at more recent EIA data, the U.S. exported 57 million tons of metallurgical coal through the first nine months of 2024. The largest recipient was India, the final destination for over 10 million short tons of U.S. metallurgical coal, with almost 9 million going to China. Almost 7 million short tons were exported to Brazil, and over 5 million to the Netherlands.
“Metallurgical coal accounts for approximately 10% of U.S. coal output, and nearly all of it is exported. Thermal coal produced in the United States, by contrast, mostly is consumed domestically,”according to the EIA.
The tax credit comes at a trying time for the metallurgical coal sector. After export prices spiked at $344 per short ton in the second quarter of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (much of Ukraine’s metallurgical coal production occurs in one of its most hotly contested regions), prices fell to $145 at the end of 2024, according to EIA data.
In their most recent quarterly reports, a number of major metallurgical coal producers told investors they wanted to reduce costs “as the industry awaits a reversal of the currently weak metallurgical coal market,” according to S&P Global Commodities Insights, citing low global demand for steel and economic uncertainty.
There was “not a whisper” of the provision before the Senate’s bill was released, according to the lobbyist, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “No one had any inkling this was coming,” they told me.
But it’s been a pleasant surprise to the metallurgical coal industry and its investors.
Alabama-based Warrior Met Coal, which exports nearly all the coal it produces, reported a loss in the first quarter of 2025,blaming “the combination of broad economic uncertainty around global trade, seasonal demand weakness, and ample spot supply is expected to result in continued pressure on steelmaking coal prices.” Its shares were up almost 6% in afternoon trading Monday.
Tennessee-based Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported a $34 million first quarter loss in May, citing “poor market conditions and economic uncertainty caused by shifting tariff and trade policies,” and said it planned to reduce capital expenditures from its previous forecast. Its shares were up almost 7%.
While environmentalists have kept a hawk’s eye on the hefty donations from the oil and gas industry to Trump and other Republicans’ campaign coffers, it appears that the coal industry is the fossil fuel sector getting specific special treatment, despite being far, far smaller. The largest coal companies are worth a few billion dollars; the largest oil and gas companies are worth a few hundred billion.
But coal is very important to a few states — and very important to Donald Trump.
The bituminous coal that has metallurgical properties tends to be mined in Appalachia, with some of the major producers and exporters based in Tennessee and Alabama, or larger companies with mining operations in West Virginia.
One of those, Alliance Resource Partners, shipped almost 6 million tons of coal overseas. Its chief executive, Joseph Craft, andhis wife, Kelly, the former ambassador to the United Nations, are generous Republican donors. Craft was a guest at the White House during the signing ceremony for the coal executive orders.
Representatives of Warrior, Alpha Metallurgical, and Alliance Resources did not respond to a requests for comment.
While coal companies and their employees tend to be loyal Republican donors, the relative small size of the industry puts its financial clout well south of the oil and gas industry, where a single donor like Continental Resources’s Harold Hamm can give over $4 million and the sector as a whole can donate $75 million. This suggests that Trump and the Senate’s attachment to coal has more to do with coal’s specific regional clout, or even the aesthetics of coal mining and burning compared to solar panels and wind turbines.
After all, anyone can donate money, but in Trump’s Washington, only one resource can be beautiful and clean.
Two former Department of Energy staffers argue from experience that severe foreign entity restrictions aren’t the way to reshore America’s clean energy supply chain.
The latest version of Congress’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” claims to be tough on China. Instead, it penalizes American energy developers and hands China the keys to dominate 21st century energy supply chains and energy-intensive industries like AI.
Republicans are on the verge of enacting a convoluted maze of “foreign entity” restrictions and penalties on U.S. manufacturers and energy companies in the name of excising China from U.S. energy supply chains. We share this goal to end U.S. reliance on Chinese minerals and manufacturing. While at the U.S. Department of Energy and the White House, we worked on numerous efforts to combat China’s grip on energy supply chains. That included developing tough, nuanced and, importantly, workable rules to restrict tax credit eligibility for electric vehicles made using materials from China or Chinese entities — rules that quickly began to shift supply chains away from China and toward the U.S. and our allies.
That experience tells us that the rules in the Republican bill will have the opposite effect. In reality, they will make it much more difficult for U.S. companies to move supply chains away from Chinese control. The GOP’s proposed restrictions require every developer of a critical minerals project, advanced manufacturing facility, or clean energy power plant to sift through their supply chains and contracts for any relationship with a Chinese (or Russian, Iranian, or North Korean) entity. Using a Chinese technology license, or too many subcomponents, or materials produced in China — even if there are few or no alternatives — would be enough to render a company ineligible for the very incentives they need to finance and build new U.S. energy production or manufacturing facilities.
This would put companies in the position of having to prove the absence of Chinese entanglements (and guarantee that there will be none in the future) to qualify for tax credits, an all but impossible task, particularly given the untested set of new rules. Huge portions of the supply chain have flowed through China for decades, including 65% of global lithium processing and 97% of solar wafer manufacturing. American companies are already working to distance themselves from Chinese expertise and components, but the complex, commingled nature of global supply chains and corporate business structures make it infeasible to flip the switch overnight.
On top of that, the latest version of the bill would impose a brand new tax on any new solar and wind projects that have too much foreign entity “assistance,” while providing the Treasury Secretary carte blanche for determining what that might be. The result: An impossible bind, whereby the very sectors that need the most support to disentangle from China are now the ones most penalized by the new Republican “foreign entity” restrictions.
The fact is that China is ahead, not behind, in many energy sectors, and America desperately needs help playing catch-up. Ford’s CEO has called Chinese battery and electric vehicle technologies “an existential threat” to U.S. automaking. In energy supply chains for nuclear, solar, batteries, and critical minerals, China is not merely producing cheap knockoffs of American inventions, it is churning outcutting-edge battery chemistries, advancedmanufacturing processes, and high-speedcharging systems, all at lower cost. And at least until the Inflation Reduction Act enacted incentives for U.S. manufacturing and deployment, the gap between the U.S. and China waswidening.
These untested foreign entity rules will widen that gap once more. Since the start of the year, developers have abandoned more than $14 billion in domestic clean energy deployment and manufacturing projects, citing the uncertain tariff and tax policy environment, and that was before the new tax on solar and wind. New analysis from Energy Innovation finds that the latest version of the bill would reduce U.S. generation capacity by 300 gigawatts over the next decade — multiple times what we will need to power new data centers for artificial intelligence. Stopping clean energy projects in their tracks is also likely to trigger an energy price shock by constraining the very energy technologies that can be built most quickly. In the end we will cede not only our supply chains to China, but also our competitive edge in the race for AI and manufacturing dominance.
Fortunately, we have all the ingredients in this country already to achieve energy leadership. The U.S. boasts deep capital markets, a highly skilled manufacturing and construction workforce, a strong consumer economy driving demand, and, in spite of recent attacks, the world’s greatest universities and national labs. We simply need policy to provide a workable path for companies to invest with certainty, bring factories back to the United States, hire American workers, and learn to produce these technologies at scale.
With the Inflation Reduction Act’s domestic production incentives and supply chain restrictions, hundreds of companies stepped up over the past few years and made that bet, pouring billions of dollars into American supply chains. Should they be enacted, the reconciliation bill’s foreign entity rules would slam the brakes on all that activity, playing right into China’s hands.
There is a way to apply a set of carefully crafted restrictions to wean us off Chinese supply chains, but we cannot afford to saddle American energy with new taxes and red tape. If we scatter rakes across the floor for companies to step on, they will just throw up their hands and send their investments overseas, leaving us more reliant on China than before.