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The COP28 president responds to critics, a fossil fuel lobbyist influx, and more
Current conditions: Cyclone Michaung drenches Chennai, India, with 20 inches of rain in two days • Death toll from northern Tanzania floods rises to 63 • The high is 90 degrees in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, which voted this weekend to annex two-thirds of neighboring oil state Guyana.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber responded to critics on Monday, insisting that he and the UAE “very much believe and respect the science” after The Guardian published a video of him pooh-poohing the phase-out of fossil fuels in an online event that took place ahead of the summit. “I have always been very clear on the fact that we are making sure that everything we do is centered around the science,” Al Jaber, who is also the chief executive of the UAE’s state oil company Adnoc, went on. “We did not in any way underestimate or undermine the task at hand.”
Al Jaber’s ability to lead the climate summit had been called into question after the publication of the comments on Sunday, which he says were taken out of context. Some critics, however, remain unappeased. In an interview Monday, former Vice President Al Gore called Al Jaber “a smart guy … [but] when I look at the massive expansion plan that they have to increase their production of oil [after the conference] … do you take us for his fools?”
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All the attention on Al Jaber took some wind out of the sails of the UAE’s major green financing deal on Monday, needless to say. But the biggest pledge of COP28’s finance-themed day came from the country’s banking sector, which committed $270 billion to green finance through 2030. That’s on top of a $30 billion fund the UAE announced Friday to invest in clean energy, infrastructure, and other climate projects. It’s been previously estimated that the developing world will need an investment of $2.4 trillion a year to address climate change.
Here are some other highlights from finance and gender day at COP28:
Tuesday’s COP28 agenda is focused on energy and industry, the just transition, and Indigenous Peoples.
Carbon dioxide becomes a “more potent greenhouse gas” the more it accumulates in the atmosphere, a new study published in Science found. Previously, the strength of the greenhouse gas effect of CO2 was thought to scale linearly, Science writes. Overall, the paper found that “doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased the impact of any given increase in CO2 by about 25%,” thanks to the gas’s effect on the stratosphere.
While that would imply the planet will heat at an increasingly rapid rate, the report wasn’t all bad news. “[T]hough this effect means that the carbon dioxide added to the air now leads to more warming than it would have a century ago,” writes Science, “it also means that geoengineering schemes to release sunlight-reflecting particles could be more effective than thought by heating the stratosphere and reducing CO2’s strength.”
There are enough voters who prioritize climate issues to potentially swing elections in certain key states, a new 18-state study by the Environmental Voter Project (EVP) has found. It’s not just young voters (ages 18-34) doing the heavy lifting on climate and environment at the ballot box, either; voters who are 65 and older were second to young voters with regards to prioritizing green political issues, with one in six listing “climate change” or “clean air, clean water, and the environment” as their #1 issue.
This is significant, because in states like New Mexico, for example, EVP found that one-third of older voters prioritize climate. And just next door, “EVP identified 230,000 climate voters 65 or older in Arizona, a state where the presidential race was decided by 10,500 votes in 2020,” Inside Climate News reports. Read the full results here.
Today’s 15-year-olds will be just 27 when states like California, New York, and New Jersey begin to require that all new cars on the road be zero-emission vehicles. To best prepare today’s learning-permit holders for the future, then, states like Illinois have begun to add electric vehicles to their driver’s education fleets, Yale Climate Connections reports.
Using grants from ComEd, the local utility, “more than a dozen schools” in Illinois have made EVs and chargers available to first-time drivers so far. Educators point out that EVs still have “four wheels, a steering wheel, a brake pedal, and an accelerator” to allow students to learn the basics, but they can also offer features that double as handy teaching tools, like overhead cameras that show how far a vehicle is from a curb during those dreaded parallel parking sessions.
“There’s always talk about ‘I’ll just wait for technology,’ but the technology is available — there are ways of doing it.” —Massive Attack founding member Robert Del Naja. The band announced on Tuesday its plans for a one-day music festival in August that will be 100% powered by renewable energy.
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Renewables developers may yet be able to start construction before the One Big Beautiful Bill deadlines hit.
The Trump administration issued new rules for the wind and solar tax credits on Friday, closing the loop on a question that has been giving developers anxiety since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in early July.
For decades, developers have been able to lock in tax credit eligibility by establishing that they have officially started construction on a project in one of two ways. They could complete “physical work of a significant nature,” such as excavating the project site or installing foundational equipment, or they could simply spend 5% of the total project budget, for instance by purchasing key components and putting them in a warehouse. After that, they had at least four years to start shipping power to the grid before stricter work requirements kicked in.
Shortly after signing the OBBBA, however, Trump issued an executive order directing the Treasury Department to revise its definition of the “beginning of construction” of a wind or solar project. Under the new law, this definition can make or break a project. OBBBA established new deadlines for wind and solar development, allowing projects that start construction before the end of this year to qualify for the tax credits as they currently stand. But projects that start construction between January 1 and July 4 of 2026 will have to follow stringent new rules limiting the use of materials with ties to China in order to qualify.
The start construction date also affects how long a developer has to complete a project and still qualify for credits. Projects that start before July 4 of next year have at least four years, while those that start after must meet an impossibly short timeline of being up and running in just a year and a half, by the end of 2027.
Some worried the new guidance would narrow that four year timeframe or affect project eligibility retroactively. Neither happened. The only major change the Treasury department made to the existing guidance was to get rid of the 5% safe harbor provision. While this is not nothing, and will certainly disqualify some projects that might otherwise have been able to claim the credits, it is nowhere near as calamitous for renewables as it could have been.
Projects can still establish they have started construction by completing “physical work of a significant nature,” and the definition of physical work still includes off-site work, such as the manufacturing of equipment. That means it’s still possible for a company to simply place an order for a custom piece of equipment, like a transformer, to establish their start date — as long as they have a binding contract in place and can demonstrate that the physical production of the equipment is underway.
The new guidance also contains a carve-out that allows solar projects that are less than 1.5 megawatts to use the 5% rule, which will help rooftop solar and smaller community-scale installations.
Trump’s executive order came after a reported deal he made with House Freedom Caucus Republicans who wanted to axe the tax credits altogether. The order directed the Treasury to prevent “the artificial acceleration or manipulation of eligibility” and restrict “the use of broad safe harbors unless a substantial portion of a subject facility has been built.”
Treasury’s relative restraint, then, comes as something of a relief. “It’s not good, it’s not helpful, but from my perspective, the guidance could have been a lot worse,” David Burton, a partner at Norton Rose Fulbright who specializes in energy tax credits, told me. “Utility-scale solar and wind developers should be able to plan around this and not be that harmed.”
That doesn’t mean clean energy groups are happy about the changes, though. “At a time when we need energy abundance, these rules create new federal red tape,” Heather O’Neill, president and CEO of the industry group Advanced Energy United, said in a statement. “These rules will make it more difficult and expensive to build and finance critical energy projects in the U.S.”
The changes don’t go into effect until September 2, so for the next two weeks, all projects can still utilize the 5% safe harbor.
Even though the rules are not the death-blow for projects that some anticipated, there’s still one big unknown that could squeeze development further: The Treasury department has yet to put out guidance related to the new foreign sourcing rules created by the OBBB. One of the big fears there is that companies will have to prove their lack of ties to China so far up their supply chains that compliance becomes impossible.
We probably won’t be left wondering for long, though. Trump’s executive order asked for those rules within 45 days, putting the due date on Monday.
On the worsening transformer shortage, China’s patent boom, and New York’s nuclear embrace
Current conditions: Tropical Storm Erin is still intensifying as it approaches the Caribbean • Rare August rainstorms are deluging the Pacific Northwest with a month’s worth of precipitation in 24 hours, threatening floods • Hong Kong has issued its highest-level “black” rainstorm warning multiple times this month as Tropical Storm Podul lashes southern China.
President Donald Trump’s order to keep large fossil-fueled power stations scheduled to retire between now and 2028 operating indefinitely will cost ratepayers across the United States $3.1 billion per year, according to new research from the consultancy Grid Strategies on behalf of four large environmental groups. If the Department of Energy expands the order to cover all 54 fossil fuel plants slated for closure in the next three years, the price tag for Americans whose rates fund the subsidies to keep the stations running would rise to $6 billion per year.
The problem may only grow. The agency’s existing mandates “perversely incentivize plant owners to claim they plan to retire so they can receive a ratepayer subsidy to remain open,” the report points out.
With electricity consumption hitting new records in the U.S., demand for transformers is surging. The years-long supply shortage for power and distribution transformers is now set to hit a deficit below demand of 30% and 10%, respectively, in 2025, according to a new report from the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Complicating matters further for manufacturers scrambling to ramp up supply, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is throwing clean-energy projects into jeopardy and sending mixed signals to factories on what kinds of transformers to produce. At the same time, tariffs are raising the price of materials needed to make more transformers.
“The U.S. transformer market stands at a critical juncture, with supply constraints threatening to undermine the nation's energy transition and grid reliability goals,” Ben Boucher, a senior supply chain analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. “The convergence of accelerating electricity demand, aging infrastructure and supply chain vulnerabilities has created constraints that will persist well into the 2030s.”
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A worker in a Chinese electric vehicle factory. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
For years, China was known for ripping off the West’s technology and patenting cheaper but more easily manufactured copies. Not anymore. China applied for twice as many high-quality clean energy patents as the U.S. in 2022, according to a New York Times analysis of the most recently available public data. The European Patent Office, which supplied data to the Times, defines a “high quality” patent as one that has been filed in two or more countries, indicating that the company or individual involved has a strong competitive interest in protecting its idea.
The growth in China’s intellectual property ambitions is a sign that Beijing’s strategic push to ramp up academic research and industrial innovation is maturing. “It is the opposite of an accident,” said Jenny Wong Leung, an analyst and data scientist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which created a database of global research on technologies that are critical to nations’ economic and military security, including clean energy.
In June, New York Governor Kathy Hochul directed the New York Power Authority, the nation’s second-largest government-owned utility after the federal Tennessee Valley Authority, to support the construction of the state’s first new nuclear plant since the 1980s. Albany has plenty to sort out between now and the 15-year deadline for completing the project, including selecting a site, picking from one of the many new reactor designs, and finding a private partner. But one thing isn’t a problem, at least for now: Public support.
New Siena polling I covered in my Substack newsletter yesterday shows that 49% of registered voters in New York support the effort, with just 26% opposed. Both sides of the political spectrum are largely in lockstep, with Republican support outpacing that of Democrats by a margin of 55% to 49%. That’s lucky for Hochul, who will need support from the more politically conservative upper reaches of the state where the facility is likely to be built. For more on the technical and political considerations in play, here’s Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin on the plan.
It seems like everyone is abandoning their net zero goals. But not insurer Aviva. The company’s chief executive, Amanda Blanc, said the British giant remained committed to its carbon-cutting goals in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, The Guardian reported. With rising profits propelling shares in the company to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, Blanc said, “extreme weather conditions, climate change, and the impact that that has on our insurance business that actually insures properties” meant Aviva needed to “remain committed to our ambition.”
The red-headed wood pigeon once seemed on the verge of extinction. The population, endemic to Japan’s Ogasawara Islands, fell to below 80 individuals in the 2000s. But once its main predator, the feral cat, was removed, the bird made a remarkable comeback. A team of researchers at Kyoto University set out to find out why the expected problems from inbreeding never occurred. Per a press release: “Their results revealed that the frequency of highly deleterious mutations in the red-headed wood pigeon was lower than in the more widespread Japanese wood pigeon. This suggests that, rather than hindering it, the pigeon's success was likely rooted in its long-term persistence in a small population size prior to human impact.”
And more on the week’s most important conflicts around renewable energy projects.
1. Lawrence County, Alabama – We now have a rare case of a large solar farm getting federal approval.
2. Virginia Beach, Virginia – It’s time to follow up on the Coastal Virginia offshore wind project.
3. Fairfield County, Ohio – The red shirts are beating the greens out in Ohio, and it isn’t looking pretty.
4. Allen County, Indiana – Sometimes a setback can really set someone back.
5. Adams County, Illinois – Hope you like boomerangs because this county has approved a solar project it previously denied.
6. Solano County, California – Yet another battery storage fight is breaking out in California. This time, it’s north of San Francisco.