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Economy

Renewable Energy Developers Eye Interest Rate Relief

On Fed deliberations, Senate negotiations, and investment stagnations

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Thursday
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: 192 people are still missing after heavy rains set off a torrent of flash floods in the Indian state of Kerala • Spain’s heat wave is believed to have peaked after an observatory near Barcelona recorded an all-time high • Temperatures in Antarctica soar to more than 50˚F above normal.

THE TOP FIVE

1. A September rate cut could bring relief to renewable energy developers

The Federal Reserve once again voted to hold interest rates steady at 5.3% but signaled that a rate cut could arrive as soon as September. That rate cut would be music to the ears of renewable energy developers, who have struggled to cope with higher borrowing costs. Compared to fossil fuels, renewable energy is more vulnerable to interest rate changes because upfront capital expenditures comprise a greater share of the total project cost. As Joel Dodge wrote for Heatmap in March, high interest rates have hit the offshore wind industry particularly hard, contributing to cost overruns and even cancellations.

In a press conference on Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell cited “further progress” towards the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation. “A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table” for the September meeting, said Powell. Renewable developers will certainly hope so.

2. Senate energy permitting bill passes through committee

The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee approved a bipartisan energy permitting bill in a 15-4 vote on Wednesday. The bill has a little something for everyone: sped-up permitting for renewable energy, requirements for oil and gas leases, and LNG approval time limits. It’s a joint effort by Republican Senator John Barrasso and Independent Senator Joe Manchin, who effused that the bill’s passage marked “a tremendous day for all of us.” Critics of the bill include over 360 environmental groups, who view the fossil fuel provisions as an affront to climate action. Three Democratic-caucusing senators and one Republican senator have already signaled that they will oppose the legislation. The White House has yet to weigh in, though senior climate policymakers have previously said that permitting reform is necessary to unlock the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act.

3. Global battery investment declines for the first time this decade

After growing for four years straight, global investment in batteries is set to decline this year, according to analytics firm Rystad Energy. The main culprit, Rystad says, is a slump in the Chinese market, where industry consolidation and supply chain constraints have put a damper on the firehose of investment that marked 2021 and 2022. If the spending dip bears out, it could pose challenges for the global EV industry. Sustained technological improvements and cost declines – largely driven by Chinese investments – have made EVs more affordable and driven their adoption in Asian and Western markets alike.

What this means for the future of the battery industry is unclear, says Duo Fu, Rystad’s vice president for battery market research. He noted that “collaboration across the entire supply chain is crucial for the industry's health.”

4. Grid-enhancing technology gets a raise

TS Conductor closed a $60 million growth investment round, the company announced on Wednesday. The U.S.-based manufacturer of advanced power lines plans to use the money to open a second production facility, with its Southern California plant nearly at capacity. TS’s power lines offer an upgrade on the traditional stock by decreasing line losses, reducing sag, and accommodating up to triple the power during peak generation hours.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that transmission capacity will have to nearly triple by 2035 if the U.S. is to integrate the renewable energy required to meet its climate goals. Transmission lines, however, are notoriously costly and time-intensive to build. Grid-enhancing technologies like TS’s can ease the burden on new construction by allowing grid operators to increase the capacity of their existing lines.

5. BYD and Uber strike a deal

Uber has announced that it will purchase 100,000 EVs from Chinese auto company BYD as part of an effort to shift Uber’s fleet of vehicles to electric. Uber drivers will be offered a host of discounts – on things like leasing, charging, and maintenance – to encourage them to make the jump to an EV. The vehicles will hit the streets first in Europe and Latin America, with Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Middle East further down the road.

The deal comes as political leaders in the United States and Europe scramble to stem the flow of low-cost Chinese EVs over worries that they will outcompete Western manufacturers. In May, the Biden administration announced that it would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, and European lawmakers imposed their own tariff (albeit smaller) on the cars in July.

THE KICKER

$120 billion — that’s the total cost of natural disasters in the first half of 2024, according to German insurance company Munich Re. It’s a slight decrease from the same period last year, but still well above the average for the past three decades.

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AM Briefing

‘We Are Open to Any Ideas’

On U.S. nuclear exports, German green H2, and SpaceX

Chris Wright.
Heatmap Illustration/Luke Liu

Current conditions: Aside from tides up to two feet above average on Staten Island and Long Island, the powerful nor’easter barreling toward the East Coast is likely to spare New York City • Tropical Storm Nolo is set to hit Hawaii with a potentially historic multi-day deluge • Hurricane Polo is slamming into Mexico’s Pacific coast with dangerous swells and heavy rain.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump’s energy chief says no diesel export ban coming, despite reports to the contrary

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump told reporters he had “called for” halting exports of diesel as prices roared to record highs amid a shortage of refining capacity to produce the fuel. On Wednesday, Politico reported that the administration was “preparing” a 90-day export ban. When Secretary of Energy Chris Wright took the stage at Heatmap House, our day-long summit on Wednesday in Midtown Manhattan, he told our executive editor Robinson Meyer that — contrary to the previous comments — the president “didn’t endorse” an export ban. “We are open to any ideas to lower energy prices for Americans,” Wright said at our annual event for New York Climate Week, essentially the amuse bouche before the United Nations climate summit in November. “We have a continual, thoughtful dialog based on the facts on the ground of what are the most practical steps moving forward, and it looks like right now we do need to grow the diesel supply in the United States.”

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Climate

Everything Happened at Heatmap House

Tales from a day of “thoughtful dialogues on energy, climate change, and human lives” on Day 3 of New York Climate Week.

Mikie Sherrill, Al Gore, and Chris Wright.
Heatmap Illustration/Luke Liu

“I’m here because I love thoughtful dialogues on energy, climate change, and human lives,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told my colleague Robinson Meyer this afternoon. “That’s been a passion my whole life, and nothing will change that.”

It’s our passion too — and was a defining theme of Heatmap House on Wednesday at New York Climate Week, with 27 sessions across topics including clean energy development, U.S. climate policy, the future of mobility, climate tech, and reindustrialization. From Wright backpedaling on President Trump’s embrace of a diesel export ban to former Vice President Al Gore asserting that 2026 might mark “the positive tipping point on climate,” it was a full day of news, contrarian opinions, juicy predictions, and lots and lots of coffee (consumed by yours truly).

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Climate Tech

The Fusion Industry Needs $10 Billion to Beat China

The Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO made his case at Heatmap House.

Heatmap House speakers.
Heatmap Illustration/Luke Liu, Getty Images

Without billions in new federal investment the United States may lose its pole position in the global race to be the first nuclear fusion superpower, Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO Bob Mumgaard told attendees at Heatmap House in New York City.

When asked onstage whether Commonwealth Fusion could still develop its fusion aspirations at scale without U.S. government financing, Mumgaard said: “I think so – it’s a question of the timing and the place.” Then he suggested that the company — and the industry — might go elsewhere if the country doesn’t put more capital into the growing sector. “There are offers on the table to build nuclear fission power plants not in the United States, so we can do that.”

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