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The true test of the electric vehicle revolution is here.
Take a quick look at the cars Americans buy and you’ll see the usual suspects that populate our parking lots: Full-size pickup trucks take their place at the top of the podium, while a few well-known sedans — and lots of SUVs and crossovers — round out the top 25. What you won’t see is much overlap with the big electric vehicle push.
The Tesla Model Y is there, an outlier in a field of mostly gas-guzzlers. The F-150 and Silverado trucks occupy spots one and two, and while Ford and Chevy have introduced fully electric versions of each, they haven’t been able to convince many pickup partisans to go EV. As for the thoroughbreds of the Target run that Americans buy in droves, a few come as plug-in hybrids, but there are no fully electric Nissan Rogues, Subaru Foresters, or Honda CR-Vs on offer.
Suddenly, though, here comes a familiar face. This summer, Chevrolet rolled out the Equinox EV, a battery-powered version of the small crossover that sells by the hundreds of thousands in its combustion configuration. And later this year it has promised to release a true entry-level version of this vehicle that starts around the magical $35,000 mark. The electrified Equinox is, on the one hand, painfully ordinary, just a battery-powered version of the car you see in the school drop-off line. Yet it might be the most important EV of the moment, and one that could tell us a lot about the success of GM’s electric fortunes and the true state of the American EV buyer.
Whether we’re truly in an EV funk depends on how you look at it. Sales aren’t growing as fast in 2024 as they did in 2023, but that’s largely because the industry leader, Tesla, got distracted from building new cars people actually want. EV sales didn’t spike into the stratosphere once more models hit the market, as some predicted, but that’s because such predictions were always specious. Whatever spin or narrative one puts on top of the car sales data, the question is basically this: Now that the early adopters have adopted, what will it take for the silent majority to buy electric cars?
Lots of those potential EV buyers are brand loyalists. They own a Subaru, and once they drive it into the ground, they’ll get another one. They are on their third Toyota RAV4. They are Chevy ‘til they die. For some of them, the arrival of an EV in their favorite make or model might be the tipping point to try out the life electric. General Motors doesn’t have to sell all of its fans on the idea right away, either. Chevrolet sells more than 200,000 petrol-powered Equinoxes in a typical year. Moving just some of those people to electric power would be a difference-maker in American EV momentum.
There’s something about a well-known name, too. Ford tried to dust little sex appeal onto the Mustang Mach-E by putting the pony car’s name onto its electric crossover. But making an electric version of a Panera icon like the Equinox says something else. It’s an attempt to signal to the practicality-minded parents of America that it’s their turn to try an EV.
Detroit had hoped such logic would work when it electrified its money-makers, the full-size trucks. But the automakers ran into headwinds, in part because lots of pickup drivers belong to the “never EV” camp and thought this amounted to electrification being forced on them. People behind the wheel of a family crossover like the Equinox are less likely to see their vehicle as an extension of tribal identity. It’s a car, and if they can be convinced that an electric one can save them money or make life easier, a lot of them will probably take the plunge.
Then there’s the other reason to see the Equinox as an acid test: price. Well-equipped versions of the EV now arriving at Chevy dealerships cost well into the $40,000s. But the simpler 1LT version of the car that’s tipped to debut in the fall will start as low as $35,000. It’ll be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit, taking the effective cost of the car down under $30,000 — effectively the same as the $28,6000 starting MSRP of the gas-burning Equinox.
This is territory where only smaller EVs like the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf had been able to play. The Equinox, though, is no city compact, but rather a family crossover with a promised 319 miles of driving range. If it comes to fruition, it’s a hell of a value proposition compared to where the EV market has been, with most vehicles starting with 200-some miles of range and costing $40,000 or more, a point where not even $7,500 in Biden bucks made them cost-competitive with the perfectly ordinary cars that make up the bulk of American auto sales.
In other words, we’re about to find out whether money really was the issue holding back the EV revolution. If the EV Equinox doesn’t take off, then we can expect to hear more bugles of retreat in the form of headlines about automakers scaling back electrification and pushing more hybrids out of fear that the suburbs truly aren’t ready for the electric car. There’s a lot at stake for the EV push — and for Detroit, where GM has recommitted to reaching an all-electric future, eventually.
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A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.
Long Islanders, meanwhile, are showing up in support of offshore wind, and more in this week’s edition of The Fight.
Local renewables restrictions are on the rise in the Hawkeye State – and it might have something to do with carbon pipelines.
Iowa’s known as a renewables growth area, producing more wind energy than any other state and offering ample acreage for utility-scale solar development. This has happened despite the fact that Iowa, like Ohio, is home to many large agricultural facilities – a trait that has often fomented conflict over specific projects. Iowa has defied this logic in part because the state was very early to renewables, enacting a state portfolio standard in 1983, signed into law by a Republican governor.
But something else is now on the rise: Counties are passing anti-renewables moratoria and ordinances restricting solar and wind energy development. We analyzed Heatmap Pro data on local laws and found a rise in local restrictions starting in 2021, leading to nearly 20 of the state’s 99 counties – about one fifth – having some form of restrictive ordinance on solar, wind or battery storage.
What is sparking this hostility? Some of it might be counties following the partisan trend, as renewable energy has struggled in hyper-conservative spots in the U.S. But it may also have to do with an outsized focus on land use rights and energy development that emerged from the conflict over carbon pipelines, which has intensified opposition to any usage of eminent domain for energy development.
The central node of this tension is the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline. As we explained in a previous edition of The Fight, the carbon transportation network would cross five states, and has galvanized rural opposition against it. Last November, I predicted the Summit pipeline would have an easier time under Trump because of his circle’s support for oil and gas, as well as the placement of former North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as interior secretary, as Burgum was a major Summit supporter.
Admittedly, this prediction has turned out to be incorrect – but it had nothing to do with Trump. Instead, Summit is now stalled because grassroots opposition to the pipeline quickly mobilized to pressure regulators in states the pipeline is proposed to traverse. They’re aiming to deny the company permits and lobbying state legislatures to pass bills banning the use of eminent domain for carbon pipelines. One of those states is South Dakota, where the governor last month signed an eminent domain ban for CO2 pipelines. On Thursday, South Dakota regulators denied key permits for the pipeline for the third time in a row.
Another place where the Summit opposition is working furiously: Iowa, where opposition to the CO2 pipeline network is so intense that it became an issue in the 2020 presidential primary. Regulators in the state have been more willing to greenlight permits for the project, but grassroots activists have pressured many counties into some form of opposition.
The same counties with CO2 pipeline moratoria have enacted bans or land use restrictions on developing various forms of renewables, too. Like Kossuth County, which passed a resolution decrying the use of eminent domain to construct the Summit pipeline – and then three months later enacted a moratorium on utility-scale solar.
I asked Jessica Manzour, a conservation program associate with Sierra Club fighting the Summit pipeline, about this phenomenon earlier this week. She told me that some counties are opposing CO2 pipelines and then suddenly tacking on or pivoting to renewables next. In other cases, counties with a burgeoning opposition to renewables take up the pipeline cause, too. In either case, this general frustration with energy companies developing large plots of land is kicking up dust in places that previously may have had a much lower opposition risk.
“We painted a roadmap with this Summit fight,” said Jess Manzour, a campaigner with Sierra Club involved in organizing opposition to the pipeline at the grassroots level, who said zealous anti-renewables activists and officials are in some cases lumping these items together under a broad umbrella. ”I don’t know if it’s the people pushing for these ordinances, rather than people taking advantage of the situation.”