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Electric Vehicles

Here Come the EPA’s New Tailpipe Rules

On car pollution limits, a big energy conference, and ‘kitten season’

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Here Come the EPA’s New Tailpipe Rules
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Current conditions: Freeze warnings are in place across many states in the south east • Troplical Cyclone Megan made landfall in Australia • A neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro reportedly recorded a temperature of 144 degrees Fahrenheit as Brazil swelters in an extreme heat wave.

THE TOP FIVE

1. EPA’s new tailpipe emissions rules expected this week

The Environmental Protection Agency this week is expected to officially announce new tailpipe emissions rules that will dramatically reshape the transportation sector over the coming years. If carmakers are to meet the EPA’s new rules, electric vehicles would need to make up a much larger share of car and light truck sales by 2030 than they do now. Last year EVs accounted for about one-tenth of sales. The end goal is to see that rise to two-thirds by 2032, but the nearer-term targets have shifted in response to anger and pressure from carmakers and the United Auto Workers union who argued EVs remain too costly and that the transition should be more gradual. Transportation is America’s biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the Biden administration sees reducing this pollution as instrumental to the U.S. fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitment of cutting emissions in half by 2030.

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2. ‘Super Bowl of energy’ conference kicks off in Houston

One of the world’s biggest oil and gas conferences is happening in Houston this week. More than 7,000 people will attend CERAWeek – which has earned the nickname the “Super Bowl of energy” – where industry executives will hear from major producers about market outlooks. The main focus is expected to be energy security, Reuters reported, but “climate concerns are reflected in the conference sessions on carbon sequestration technology and hydrogen fuels, which have become two of the oil industry's favorite means of addressing global warming.” Natural gas – and President Biden’s pause on new LNG export projects – will be high on the agenda. The Houston Chronicle reported that geothermal is also a “hot topic.” And several sessions will focus on the role of nuclear power going forward. Last Energy, a company that builds micro-scale nuclear power plants, apparently plans to hang one of its “nuclear islands” from a crane outside the venue.

3. South Sudan closes all schools, braces for extreme heat wave

South Sudan has shuttered all schools “indefinitely” and told parents to keep kids indoors ahead of a two-week heat wave expected to bring temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit. The east African country is no stranger to heat, but temperatures have rarely exceeded 104 degrees Fahrenheit, according to The Associated Press. “This extreme weather condition poses serious health hazards to children, particularly young learners and adults with underlying health conditions,” said the Ministry of Health. “During the closure of the schools, parents are advised to stop their children from playing outdoors.” South Sudan is one of the five most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, according to the UN Environment Programme, and has over the years seen temperatures rise and floods become more common.

4. Ocean temperatures break records for full year

Global sea surface temperatures have been at record highs for at least 365 days now, the Financial Times reported. On Wednesday of last week ocean temperatures set a new all-time high at 21.2 degrees celsius, or 70.16 degrees Fahrenheit. “This exceptional heat has bleak implications,” the FT said. Some ecosystems, including coral reefs, are already showing signs of devastation. And scientists are increasingly worried about a strong upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. On a macro level, there’s “a lot of concern” that a key ocean current conveyor belt known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could slow due to an influx of fresh meltwater, “with unknown consequences for habitable conditions on Earth.”

5. China begins construction on major clean energy transmission line

China has reportedly broken ground on an ultra-high-voltage transmission line that will span 664 miles and help the country integrate growing amounts of clean energy. China is the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitter, but the country is rapidly expanding its renewable capacity: Last year it installed more new solar panels than the total built by any other country, and its wind installation climbed, as well. Solar installations are expected to rise another 7% this year. But the grid has struggled to keep up. The new $3.9 billion transmission project will serve three provinces, be fed by solar and wind power, and store energy in mountain reservoirs, Bloomberg reported.

THE KICKER

“Kitten season” – the warmer months when cats are most fertile and begin to reproduce – is starting earlier and lasting longer as the climate warms, putting added pressure on animal rescue shelters.

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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Red
Daily Briefing

Think Congress Is Slow? Meet the Power Sector.

BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
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This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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AM Briefing

Neutral, at Worst

On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating in the Pacific near Hawaii, is arriving in the Southwest laden with heavy rain that’s set to flood the region • Indonesia has the worst air quality in the world as forest fires rage along Sumatra’s southern coast • A cross-country storm will soak much of the United States on Tuesday’s Election Day.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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Blue