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On EV trends, Rivian’s factory fire, and West Nile Virus

Current conditions: The Midwest is bracing for a brutal heat wave • California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range received a dusting of snow over the weekend • It will be 85 degrees and cloudy today in Flushing Meadows for the start of the U.S. Open tennis championship.
A fire broke out in the parking lot at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois, plant on Saturday, damaging dozens of cars before being extinguished. The plant itself was not affected, according to the Normal Fire Department, and no one was injured. The source of the blaze is under investigation. Rivian’s Normal factory produces all of the EV company’s current models. Last week Rivian got the city’s approval to expand the plant by about 1.3 million square feet to manufacture the upcoming mass-market R2 SUV. EVs catch fire less often than gas-powered cars, but they burn hotter and are harder to put out once alight.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is recovering from West Nile Virus, a spokeswoman said. Fauci was hospitalized with fever, chills, and fatigue but is now at home and is expected to make a full recovery. According to Dr. Jonathan LaPook, the chief medical correspondent for CBS News, Fauci thinks he was infected after being bitten by a mosquito in his backyard. West Nile is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So far this year 216 cases have been confirmed. About one in five infected people develop symptoms. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, climate change is one of many factors that increase the risk of human exposure to West Nile by accelerating mosquito development, biting rates, and disease incubation.
The Wall Street Journal explores what’s going on with plug-in hybrid cars, which have been on the market for more than a decade but are experiencing a bit of a revival as of late. The number of models on sale in the U.S. has nearly doubled over the last five years, to 47, and sales were up 60% in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2024. While conventional hybrids come with a small battery and motor that helps power the car’s engine to reduce fuel use, plug-in hybrids have a bigger battery that’s strong enough to run the vehicle exclusively on electricity for a little while before the gas engine takes over. The recent rise in sales is attributed in part to automakers being forced to comply with new tailpipe emissions rules, and drivers being EV curious but not quite ready to abandon gas entirely. “Plug-in hybrids balance the need to reduce vehicle emissions and offer consumers an entry point to electrified vehicles,” a Stellantis spokesperson told the Journal. GM is bringing back plug-in hybrids in 2027 after axing the Chevrolet Volt. Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford are all either considering rolling out a plug-in hybrid in the U.S. or expanding existing lineups.
A U.K.-based startup called Promethean Particles recently closed an £8 million ($10.5 million) Series A funding round to make tiny, super absorbent particles that the company says can soak up greenhouse gases. Promethean Particles produces metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), which are “composed of metal ions interconnected by organic molecules to form a porous, lattice-like structure.” These nanoparticles have huge surface area, and the size of their pores can be customized to trap different gases and liquids. So the technology is being eyed as an option for capturing carbon at source for storage and transport, but like many CCS technologies, it is very expensive. The company’s MOFs are already being used in a prototype project in the U.K. Promethean Particles will use the new funding round (which was led in part by Aramco Ventures) to create a bigger manufacturing facility and work to improve affordability.
In case you missed it last week: The U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation recently got to work on its mission to repair roughly 4,500 EV charging ports across the country. It’s starting with an out-of-service charging station in Washington, D.C., that will get new infrastructure and added charging capacity at faster speeds. The upgrades are made possible by a $150 million grant program through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program, which was created as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
Almost all (97%) of the new electricity generation capacity the U.S. added in the first half of 2024 came from carbon-free sources including wind, solar, battery storage, and nuclear.
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With more electric heating in the Northeast comes greater strains on the grid.
The electric grid is built for heat. The days when the system is under the most stress are typically humid summer evenings, when air conditioning is still going full blast, appliances are being turned on as commuters return home, and solar generation is fading, stretching the generation and distribution grid to its limits.
But as home heating and transportation goes increasingly electric, more of the country — even some of the chilliest areas — may start to struggle with demand that peaks in the winter.
While summer demand peaks are challenging, there’s at least a vision for how to deal with them without generating excessive greenhouse gas emissions — namely battery storage, which essentially holds excess solar power generated in the afternoon in reserve for the evening. In states with lots of renewables on the grid already, like California and Texas, storage has been helping smooth out and avoid reliability issues on peak demand days.
The winter challenge is that you can have long periods of cold weather and little sun, stressing every part of the grid. The natural gas production and distribution systems can struggle in the cold with wellheads freezing up and mechanical failure at processing facilities, just as demand for home heating soars, whether provided by piped gas or electricity generated from gas-fired power plants.
In its recent annual seasonal reliability assessment, the North American Reliability Corporation, a standard-setting body for grid operators, found that “much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies” should it encounter “extreme operating conditions,” i.e. “any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps.”
NERC cited growing electricity demand and the difficulty operating generators in the winter, especially those relying on natural gas. In 2021, Winter Storm Uri effectively shut down Texas’ grid for several days as generation and distribution of natural gas literally froze up while demand for electric heating soared. Millions of Texans were left exposed to extreme low temperatures, and at least 246 died as a result.
Some parts of the country already experience winter peaks in energy demand, especially places like North Carolina and Oregon, which “have winters that are chilly enough to require some heating, but not so cold that electric heating is rare,” in the words of North Carolina State University professor Jeremiah Johnson. "Not too many Mainers or Michiganders heat their homes with electricity,” he said.
But that might not be true for long.
New England may be cold and dark in the winter, but it’s liberal all year round. That means the region’s constituent states have adopted aggressive climate change and decarbonization goals that will stretch their available renewable resources, especially during the coldest days, weeks, and months.
The region’s existing energy system already struggles with winter. New England’s natural gas system is limited by insufficient pipeline capacity, so during particularly cold days, power plants end up burning oil as natural gas is diverted from generating electricity to heating homes.
New England’s Independent System Operator projects that winter demand will peak at just above 21 gigawatts this year — its all-time winter peak is 22.8 gigawatts, summer is 28.1 — which ISO-NE says the region is well-prepared for, with 31 gigawatts of available capacity. That includes energy from the Vineyard Wind offshore wind project, which is still facing activist opposition, as well as imported hydropower from Quebec.
But going forward, with Massachusetts aiming to reduce emissions 50% by 2030 (though state lawmakers are trying to undo that goal) and reach net-zero emissions by 2050 — and nearly the entire region envisioning at least 80% emissions reductions by 2050 — that winter peak is expected to soar. The non-carbon-emitting energy generation necessary to meet that demand, meanwhile, is still largely unbuilt.
By the mid 2030s, ISO-NE expects its winter peak to surpass its summer peak, with peak demand perhaps reaching as high as 57 gigawatts, more than double the system’s all-time peak load. Those last few gigawatts of this load will be tricky — and expensive — to serve. ISO-NE estimates that each gigawatt from 51 to 57 would cost $1.5 billion for transmission expansion alone.
ISO-NE also found that “the battery fleet may be depleted quickly and then struggle to recharge during the winter months,” which is precisely when “batteries may be needed most to fill supply gaps during periods of high demand due to cold weather, as well as periods of low production from wind and solar resources.” Some 600 megawatts of battery storage capacity has come online in the last decade in ISO-NE, and there are state mandates for at least 7 more gigawatts between 2030 and 2033.
There will also be a “continued need for fuel-secure dispatchable resources” through 2050, ISO-NE has found — that is, something to fill the role that natural gas, oil, and even coal play on the coldest days and longest cold stretches of the year.
This could mean “vast quantities of seasonal storage,” like 100-hour batteries, or alternative fuels like synthetic natural gas (produced with a combination of direct air capture and electrolysis, all powered by carbon-free power), hydrogen, biodiesel, or renewable diesel. And this is all assuming a steady buildout of renewable power — including over a gigawatt per year of offshore wind capacity added through 2050 — that will be difficult if not impossible to accomplish given the current policy and administrative roadblocks.
While planning for the transmission and generation system of 2050 may be slightly fanciful, especially as the climate policy environment — and the literal environment — are changing rapidly, grid operators in cold regions are worried about the far nearer term.
From 2027 to 2032, ISO-NE analyses “indicate an increasing energy shortfall risk profile,” said ISO-NE planning official Stephen George in a 2024 presentation.
“What keeps me up at night is the winter of 2032,” Richard Dewey, chief executive of the neighboring New York Independent System Operator, said at a 2024 conference. “I don’t know what fills that gap in the year 2032.”
The future of the American electric grid is being determined in the docket of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
The Trump administration tasked federal energy regulators last month to come up with new rules that would allow large loads — i.e. data centers — to connect to the grid faster without ballooning electricity bills. The order has set off a flurry of reactions, as the major players in the electricity system — the data center developers, the power producers, the utilities — jockey to ensure that any new rules don’t impinge upon their business models. The initial public comment period closed last week, meaning now FERC will have to go through hundreds of comments from industry, government, and advocacy stakeholders, hoping to help shape the rule before it’s released at the end of April.
They’ll have a lot to sift through. Opinions ranged from skeptical to cautiously supportive to fully supportive, with imperfect alignment among trade groups and individual companies.
The Utilities
When the DOE first asked FERC to get to work on a rule, several experts identified a possible conflict with utilities, namely the idea that data centers “should be responsible for 100% of the network upgrades that they are assigned through the interconnection studies.” Utilities typically like to put new transmission into their rate base, where they can earn a regulated rate of return on their investments that’s recouped from payments from all their customers. And lo, utilities were largely skeptical of the exercise.
The Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, wrote in its comments to FERC that the new rule should require large load customers to pay for their share of the transmission system costs, i.e. not the full cost of network upgrades.
EEI claimed that these network costs can add up to the “tens to hundreds of millions of dollars” that should be assigned in a way that allows utilities “to earn a return of and on the entirety of the transmission network.”
In short, the utilities are defending something like the traditional model, where utilities connect all customers and spread out the costs of doing so among the entire customer base. That model has come under increasing stress thanks to the flood of data center interconnection requests, however. The high costs in some markets, like PJM, have also led some scholars and elected officials to seriously reconsider the nature of utility regulation. Still, that model has been largely good for the utilities — and they show no sign of wanting to give it up.
The Hyperscalers
The biggest technology companies, like Google, Microsoft, and Meta, and their trade groups want to make sure their ability to connect to the grid will not be impeded by new rules.
Ari Peskoe, an energy law professor at Harvard Law School, told me that existing processes for interconnection are likely working out well for the biggest data center developers and they may not be eager to rock the boat with a federal overhaul. “Presumably utilities are lining up to do deals with them because they have so much money,” Peskoe said.
In its letter to FERC, the DOE suggested that the commission could expedite interconnection of large loads “that agree to be curtailable.” That would entail users of a lot of electricity ramping down use while the grid was under stress, as well as co-locating projects with new sources of energy generation that could serve the grid as a whole. This approach has picked up steam among researchers and some data center developers, although with some cautions and caveats.
The Clean Energy Buyers Association, which represents many large technology companies, wrote in its comment that such flexibility should be “structured to enable innovation and competition through voluntary pathways rather than mandates,” echoing criticism of a proposal by the electricity market PJM Interconnection that could have forced large loads to be eligible for curtailment.
The Data Center Coalition, another big tech trade group representing many key players in the data center industry, emphasized throughout their comment that any reform to interconnection should still allow data centers to simply connect to the grid, without requiring or unduly favoring “hybrid” or co-location approaches.
“Timely, predictable, and nondiscriminatory access to interconnection service for stand-alone load is… critical… to the continued functioning of the market itself,” the Data Center Coalition wrote.
The hyperscalers themselves largely echoed this message, albeit with some differences in emphasis. They did not want any of their existing arrangements — which have allowed breakneck data center development — to be disrupted or to be forced into operating their data centers in any particular fashion.
Microsoft wrote that it was in favor of “voluntarily curtailable loads,” but cautioned that “most data centers today have limited curtailment capability,” and worried about “operational reliability risks.” In short, don’t railroad us into something our data centers aren’t really set up to do.
OpenAI wrote a short comment, likely its first ever appearance in a FERC docket, where it argued for “an optional curtailable-load pathway” that would allow for faster interconnection, echoing comments it had made in a letter to the White House.
Meta, meanwhile, argued against any binding rule at all, saying instead that FERC “should consider adopting guidance, best practices, and, if appropriate, minimum standards for large load interconnection rather than promulgating a binding, detailed rule.” After all, its deploying data centers gigawatts at a time and has been able to reach deals with utilities to secure power.
The Generators
Perhaps the most fulsome support for the broadest version of the DOE’s proposal came from the generators. The Electrical Power Supply Association, an independent power producer trade group, wrote that more standardized, transparent “rules of the road” are needed to allow large loads like data centers “to interconnect to the transmission system efficiently and fairly, and to be able to do so quickly.” It also called on FERC to speed up its reviews of interconnection requests.
Constellation, which operates a 32-gigawatt generation fleet with a large nuclear business, said that it “agrees with the motivations and principles outlined in the [Department of Energy’s proposal] and the need for clear rules to allow the timely interconnection of large loads and their co-location with generators.” It also called for faster implementation of large load interconnection principles in PJM, the nation’s largest electricity market, “where data center development has been stymied by disagreements and uncertainty over who controls the timing and nature of large load interconnections, and over the terms of any ensuing transmission service.” Constellation specifically called out utilities for excessive influence over PJM rulemaking and procedures.
Constellation’s stance shouldn’t be surprising, Peskoe told me. From the perspective of independent power producers, enabling data centers to quickly and directly work with regional transmission organizations and generators to come online is “generally going to be better for the generators,” Peskoe said, while utilities “want to be the gatekeeper.”
In the end, the fight over data center interconnection may not have much to do with data centers — it’s just one battle after another between generators and utilities.
The senator spoke at a Heatmap event in Washington, D.C. last week about the state of U.S. manufacturing.
At Heatmap’s event, “Onshoring the Electric Revolution,” held last week in Washington, D.C. every guest agreed: The U.S. is falling behind in the race to build the technologies of the future.
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, a Democrat who sits on the Senate’s energy and natural resources committee, expressed frustration with the Trump administration rolling back policies in the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act meant to support critical minerals companies. “If we want to, in this country, lead in 21st century technology, why aren’t we starting with the extraction of the critical minerals that we need for that technology?” she asked.
At the same time, Cortez Masto also seemed hopeful that the Senate would move forward on both permitting and critical minerals legislation. “After we get back from the Thanksgiving holiday, there is going to be a number of bills that we’re looking at marking up and moving through the committee,” Cortez Masto said. That may well include the SPEED Act, a permitting bill with bipartisan support that passed the House Natural Resources Committee late last week.
Friction in the permitting of new energy and transmission projects is one of the key factors slowing down the transition to clean energy — though fossil fuel companies also have an interest in the process.
Thomas Hochman, the Foundation of American Innovation’s director of infrastructure policy, talked about how legislation could protect energy projects of all stripes from executive branch interference.
“The oil and gas industry is really, really interested in seeing tech-neutral language on this front because they’re worried that the same tools that have been uncovered to block wind and solar will then come back and block oil and gas,” Hochman said.
While permitting dominated the conversation, it was not the only topic on panelists’ minds.
“There’s a lot of talk about permitting,” said Michael Tubman, the senior director of federal affairs at Lucid Motors. “It’s not just about permits. There’s a lot more to be done. And one of those important things is those mines have to have the funding available.”
Michael Bruce, a partner at the venture capital firm Emerson Collective, thinks that other government actions, such as supporting domestic demand, would help businesses in the critical minerals space.
“You need to have demand,” he said. “And if you don’t have demand, you don’t have a business.”
Like Cortez Masto, Bruce lamented the decline of U.S. mining in the face of China’s supply chain dominance.
“We do [mining] better than anyone else in the world,” said Bruce. “But we’ve got to give [mining companies] permission to return. We have a few [projects] that have been waiting for permits for upwards of 25 years.”