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Energy

IEA to Oil Markets: ‘Buckle Up’

On oil forecasts, DOE cuts, and the cost of coal

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IEA to Oil Markets: ‘Buckle Up’
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Breezy weather in Sarasota, Florida, is increasing today’s fire danger • Turin, Italy, is bracing for an April’s worth of rain in a single day • The aurora borealis may be visible over the northern U.S. tonight and tomorrow thanks to a geomagnetic storm.

THE TOP FIVE

1. IEA report moderates expectations of global oil demand

The International Energy Agency released its monthly analysis of the global oil market on Tuesday, writing “buckle up.” The group cut its forecast by almost a third, estimating world oil demand will rise by 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from its estimate of just over 1 million barrels per day last month. The group further predicted the slowdown will extend into 2026 due to a “fragile macroeconomic environment” and the continued growth of EVs. Though “imports of oil, gas, and refined products were given exemptions from the tariffs announced by the United States,” IEA wrote that its analysis took into consideration “concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth, and intensify trade disputes.” The group noted that the new tariffs also make it more expensive to buy steel and the equipment required for drilling, and that “the situation is still fluid and substantial risks remain.”

On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its 2025 global oil demand forecast. Likewise citing the Trump tariffs, OPEC sees world oil demand rising 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, each down about 150,000 barrels per day from March’s forecast.

2. Energy executives, scientists warn Trump administration against cuts to DOE

On Monday, energy executives and trade groups formally warned the Trump administration that its cuts to the Department of Energy would sabotage the president’s stated goal of “energy dominance.” As Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer previously reported, the agency stands to lose nearly one-fifth of its employees to buyouts and layoffs, with The New York Times reporting Monday that some of the deepest cuts are anticipated at the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations and the Loan Program Office, which also provides support for clean energy development. “LPO continues to play a critical role in financing infrastructure that enables new nuclear power development, revitalizes domestic mineral production, and modernizes both grid and gas systems — all central to the administration’s goals of lowering energy costs, reshoring manufacturing, and achieving energy dominance,” the 30 signatories wrote in the letter, which was addressed to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

3. Coal push could strand ‘tens of billions’ of renewable interconnection investments

President Trump’s executive order meant to boost “beautiful clean coal” could cost “tens of billions” of solar grid interconnection investments, according to comments made by Grid Strategies president Rob Gramlich in a webinar reported on by PV Magazine. (Gramlich is also a Heatmap contributor.)

As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin pointed out last week, many of coal’s uses can be “easily substituted with other sources, such as natural gas,” which is part of why coal production has fallen in the U.S. since 2008. Trump’s order could extend about 50 gigawatts of coal that would otherwise likely have been retired, thereby limiting the amount of wind and solar that can come online. Gramlich’s co-host for the webinar, Roth Capital Partners Managing Director Phil Shen, added that he was “incrementally more pessimistic” about utility-scale solar given the administration’s bolstering of coal.

4. Wisconsin’s fire season is already one for the books

Wisconsin has seen a record number of wildfires in 2025, with local experts citing the warming climate and extended droughts as part of what is fueling the blazes. “We’ve never had this many fires in January and February ever in the state of Wisconsin,” Jim Bernier, the forest fire section manager of the state Department of National Resources, said in comments reported by Wisconsin Public Radio. Wisconsin averages around 864 wildfires annually; there have already been 470 wildfires in 2025, double what would be expected by this time of year. Making matters worse, researchers say that areas where urban development borders wildlands account for nearly 10% of the fire-prone land in the state. “We have to mentally prepare ourselves that … we’re in it for a long haul,” Bernier said.

5. More than 60% of climate voters are women

A new report released Monday found that women are “significantly more likely than men to name climate change or environmental issues as their top political priority.” The research, conducted by the Environmental Voter Project, revealed that 62% of climate voters are women, compared to just 37% being men. The divide is most pronounced among young voters, with women aged 18-24 twice as likely as men of the same age to list climate as a top priority. “This report confirms what so many of us have known for years: women are leading the charge against the climate crisis,” Jane Fonda said in a statement shared with the study’s release. “Mothers, grandmothers, and daughters are showing up, organizing, and voting like our lives — and the lives of our children — depend on it.”

Environmental Voters Project

THE KICKER

Making buses free in New York City would wipe out $600 million a year in net fare revenues for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority — but create $1.5 billion a year in benefits for riders, boost ridership by 23%, and save riders 36 million hours a year, according to a new study by the transportation economist Charles Komanoff.

Yellow

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AM Briefing

A Quid for the Grid

On space solar, EU methane rules, and solar tariffs

Andy Burnham.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: For the first time since 1914, the Atlantic hurricane season may pass without any major hurricanes, per an AccuWeather forecast • From Phoenix to Dallas, flood watches are in effect as the remnants of Hurricane Polo stretch inland from the Pacific through the Southwest • Surigae, now upgraded to a “severe” tropical storm, is set to slam into Japan’s Izu Islands, a partially populated archipelago in the same municipality as Tokyo.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as diesel nears $7 a gallon

The Department of Energy has ordered the release of 40 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as diesel surpasses $6.50 per gallon and Texas proclaims a statewide “disaster” over soaring prices. The move, which Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said would “stabilize the market,” comes as the Trump administration weighs whether to temporarily ban exports of diesel, a radical step that might only slightly lower American prices while sending Europe’s fuel costs skyrocketing, as the chief executive of the continent’s No. 2 oil company cautioned in a Bloomberg interview this week. The oil is expected to be a loan from the stockpile that would, Wright said, ultimately save Americans more than $3 billion. The transaction follows the same approach the Trump administration has taken since agreeing to distribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back in March, when the war with Iran began. Had the administration instead sold the barrels through an emergency drawdown instead of a trade, as it did previously, and simultaneously structured the deal to allow it to buy back oil at the lower prices the futures market is trading at presently, the Energy Department could have significantly increased its profits. That’s the finding of a policy memo from the think tank Employ America that I told you about a few weeks ago. The profit could, in turn, be used to invest in America’s fuel stockpile, clearing some of the $230 million backlog of physical repairs needed on the infrastructure that stores the crude. “The choice to deliver more barrels is fraught, but with that decision made, the administration missed an opportunity to set up the SPR for long-term success,” Arnab Datta, Employ America’s managing director of policy implementation, told me in a text message last night. “I hope they consider creative options to do so moving forward.”

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Blue
Climate Tech

The Startup Raising $17 Million for Super-Thin, Wall-Mounted Batteries

Novele is aiming to smooth out power consumption for commercial buildings, saving tenants money and easing grid strain.

Novele batteries.
Heatmap Illustration/Novele, Getty Images

Electricity is more expensive in times of peak demand — that’s simply a universal truth. But for many commercial building owners and tenants, their most energy-intensive minutes of the month can have an especially outsized impact on their electricity bill. That’s because of the “demand charge,” a fee based on a building’s single highest burst of power consumption, which can make up over 50% of a customer’s monthly bill. Likewise, shrinking those bursts would not only ease strain on the grid, but could also dramatically lower commercial users’ costs.

Or at least that’s Novele’s pitch. The startup, which makes 2-inch-thick, fire-safe lithium-ion batteries that mount on the interior walls of commercial spaces such as offices, hospitals, and big box retailers, announced Wednesday that it raised an oversubscribed $17 million Series A led by impact-focused investor Boisei Labs. The funding will help the company scale its AI-powered battery system, which networks batteries placed throughout a building and uses software to predict impending spikes in power demand. Just before the peak hits, the system can automatically switch the building from grid power to battery power, helping the customer avoid those costly demand charges.

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Podcast

Al Gore on AI, ‘An Inconvenient Truth,’ and the Biggest Surprises of the Past 20 Years

The former vice president of the United States joined us at Heatmap House for New York Climate Week.

Al Gore.
Heatmap Illustration/Luke Liu

Former Vice President Al Gore needs no introduction. He is, in a way, the original climate influencer. His film An Inconvenient Truth gave rise to a new wave of climate activism in the 2000s. It was one of the highest-grossing documentaries of all time upon its release, and it won an Oscar, a Grammy, and — for Vice President Gore — a Nobel Peace Prize.

He’s remained active in climate policy since then and leads the Climate Reality Project. He is also an investor and was a longtime director at Apple.

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