IEA to Oil Markets: ‘Buckle Up’

Current conditions: Breezy weather in Sarasota, Florida, is increasing today’s fire danger • Turin, Italy, is bracing for an April’s worth of rain in a single day • The aurora borealis may be visible over the northern U.S. tonight and tomorrow thanks to a geomagnetic storm.

THE TOP FIVE

1. IEA report moderates expectations of global oil demand

The International Energy Agency released its monthly analysis of the global oil market on Tuesday, writing “buckle up.” The group cut its forecast by almost a third, estimating world oil demand will rise by 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from its estimate of just over 1 million barrels per day last month. The group further predicted the slowdown will extend into 2026 due to a “fragile macroeconomic environment” and the continued growth of EVs. Though “imports of oil, gas, and refined products were given exemptions from the tariffs announced by the United States,” IEA wrote that its analysis took into consideration “concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth, and intensify trade disputes.” The group noted that the new tariffs also make it more expensive to buy steel and the equipment required for drilling, and that “the situation is still fluid and substantial risks remain.”

On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its 2025 global oil demand forecast. Likewise citing the Trump tariffs, OPEC sees world oil demand rising 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, each down about 150,000 barrels per day from March’s forecast.

2. Energy executives, scientists warn Trump administration against cuts to DOE

On Monday, energy executives and trade groups formally warned the Trump administration that its cuts to the Department of Energy would sabotage the president’s stated goal of “energy dominance.” As Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer previously reported, the agency stands to lose nearly one-fifth of its employees to buyouts and layoffs, with The New York Times reporting Monday that some of the deepest cuts are anticipated at the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations and the Loan Program Office, which also provides support for clean energy development. “LPO continues to play a critical role in financing infrastructure that enables new nuclear power development, revitalizes domestic mineral production, and modernizes both grid and gas systems — all central to the administration’s goals of lowering energy costs, reshoring manufacturing, and achieving energy dominance,” the 30 signatories wrote in the letter, which was addressed to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

3. Coal push could strand ‘tens of billions’ of renewable interconnection investments

President Trump’s executive order meant to boost “beautiful clean coal” could cost “tens of billions” of solar grid interconnection investments, according to comments made by Grid Strategies president Rob Gramlich in a webinar reported on by PV Magazine. (Gramlich is also a Heatmap contributor.)

As my colleague Matthew Zeitlin pointed out last week, many of coal’s uses can be “easily substituted with other sources, such as natural gas,” which is part of why coal production has fallen in the U.S. since 2008. Trump’s order could extend about 50 gigawatts of coal that would otherwise likely have been retired, thereby limiting the amount of wind and solar that can come online. Gramlich’s co-host for the webinar, Roth Capital Partners Managing Director Phil Shen, added that he was “incrementally more pessimistic” about utility-scale solar given the administration’s bolstering of coal.

4. Wisconsin’s fire season is already one for the books

Wisconsin has seen a record number of wildfires in 2025, with local experts citing the warming climate and extended droughts as part of what is fueling the blazes. “We’ve never had this many fires in January and February ever in the state of Wisconsin,” Jim Bernier, the forest fire section manager of the state Department of National Resources, said in comments reported by Wisconsin Public Radio. Wisconsin averages around 864 wildfires annually; there have already been 470 wildfires in 2025, double what would be expected by this time of year. Making matters worse, researchers say that areas where urban development borders wildlands account for nearly 10% of the fire-prone land in the state. “We have to mentally prepare ourselves that … we’re in it for a long haul,” Bernier said.

5. More than 60% of climate voters are women

A new report released Monday found that women are “significantly more likely than men to name climate change or environmental issues as their top political priority.” The research, conducted by the Environmental Voter Project, revealed that 62% of climate voters are women, compared to just 37% being men. The divide is most pronounced among young voters, with women aged 18-24 twice as likely as men of the same age to list climate as a top priority. “This report confirms what so many of us have known for years: women are leading the charge against the climate crisis,” Jane Fonda said in a statement shared with the study’s release. “Mothers, grandmothers, and daughters are showing up, organizing, and voting like our lives — and the lives of our children — depend on it.”

Environmental Voters Project

THE KICKER

Making buses free in New York City would wipe out $600 million a year in net fare revenues for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority — but create $1.5 billion a year in benefits for riders, boost ridership by 23%, and save riders 36 million hours a year, according to a new study by the transportation economist Charles Komanoff.