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Energy

Energy Is Exempt From Trump’s Tariffs. So Why Did Stocks Take a Hit?

There’s a bigger picture, here.

Donald Trump and power lines.
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Apple shares fell 9% Thursday — not surprising, iPhones are largely made in China, putting them soon behind a 65% tariff. Nike (down 14.5%) and Lululemon’s (down 9.5%) supply chains are now behind the formidable 46% tariff on Vietnam. But why is Vistra, which owns dozens of coal, gas, nuclear and renewable power plants in California, Texas, and along the East Coast, down 15%? Constellation, whose portfolio includes several nuclear plants, down 11%? GE Vernova, whose gas turbines are sold out until almost the end of the decade, down 10%? Some of the best performing stocks of 2024 are now some of the biggest laggards.

The biggest reason isn’t because natural gas or uranium or coal suddenly got more expensive (although uranium imports from Canada do face a 10% tariff). It’s because of anxiety about what the tariffs will do to economic growth — and electricity demand growth as a result.

The tariffs announced on Wednesday will be a major hit to the country’s economic trajectory according to almost every non-White House economist that’s looked at them. The Yale Budget Lab estimated that the April 2 tariffs alone would bring down GDP growth by half a percentage point, while Trump’s tariffs combined would bring down growth by 0.9 percentage points this year. Morgan Stanley economists echoed that finding in a note to clients Thursday. “Policy changes will weigh meaningfully on growth,” they wrote. “Downside risks will be larger if these tariffs remain in place.”

“Economic growth and energy consumption are pretty closely linked,” Aurora Energy Research managing director Oliver Kerr told me. “An economic slowdown tends to result in less demand for power overall. That's what the market is probably reacting to today.”

The downturn in power stocks also indicates that the market is not expecting any reindustrialization of America due to the high tariffs to happen in the near term. If it did, power producers might be in better shape, as factories are major consumers of electricity.

“Tariffs, in theory, could be a part of an economic policy arsenal to boost domestic production,” Kerr said. But without domestic incentives like those included in the Inflation Reduction Act or the Chips and Science Act, “it’s a tough case to make for why all of these factories should start opening all across the Midwest.”

Also lurking in the background is the same force that’s been driving the market performance of any company that owns substantial power capacity — especially if it’s clean firm, like nuclear, or dispatchable, like natural gas: enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The power producers, the turbine manufacturers, and the chip designers were high flyers throughout 2024 thanks to optimism about a multi-hundred-billion dollar buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers.

That optimism has flagged of late thanks to a series of reports from brokerage TD Cowen finding that Microsoft was shaving back some of its data center commitments. Now, Bloomberg is reporting that Microsoft “has pulled back on data center projects around the world, suggesting the company is taking a harder look at its plans to build the server farms powering artificial intelligence and the cloud.” The company has also “halted talks for, or delayed development” for data centers from Wisconsin to Indonesia, the Bloomberg report said.

That’s bad news for the companies like Vistra, GE Vernova, and Constellation that have ridden the wave of expected demand to stock market glory. “The main constraint that we see for AI load growth is power,” Kerr told me. But if there’s less load growth coming, then there’s less power we’ll need. Better start building some factories soon.

Blue

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Q&A

How an ‘Abundance’ Policy Shop Is Approaching Data Centers

Chatting about win-win solutions with the Abundance Institute’s Ryan Norris.

Ryan Norris.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Ryan Norris, senior fellow for energy policy at the Abundance Institute. The libertarian-leaning institute — whose name cleverly shortens to AI — is a new-ish entity with increasing relevance in energy and tech spaces. As Norris and I discussed, it’s starting to help shape policy on data center development and the generation that’ll power it all, especially in Republican circles. Norris himself previously worked with Americans for Prosperity, a right-wing political organization. I reached out to him and asked if we could chat because I wanted to know more about the institute’s work within the energy space. He wound up saying a lot more than I expected. So let’s dive into it.

The following conversation was lightly edited and abridged for clarity.

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Hotspots

Wisconsin’s Anti-Data Center Voters Never Showed Up

Plus more of the week’s biggest development fights.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Shelby County, Alabama — The Trump administration’s widening effort to intervene in rural energy project fights is facing an early test: What happens if companies don’t take it seriously?

  • This week country music star John Rich, Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners,” explained to an Alabama radio station that one of his first public efforts to support a landowner with administration support ran aground. Rich said he reached out to Alabama Power in the hopes they it could move a planned transmission line cutting across the property of a trucking company owner seeking to retire in the woods. But Rich said Alabama Power has so far shrugged off both him and the Agriculture Department, refusing to allow any company representatives to speak with them.
  • “They farmed my conversation out to a third party attorney. Outside counsel. Not even someone with Alabama Power,” Rich told radio host Leland White. After an hour and a half with the attorney led to “no answers,” the musician said, he sent questions in writing with USDA assistance, which he claimed were met with “legal mumbo jumbo.” “It’s like a slap in the face. I still haven’t spoken to anyone at Alabama Power about this.”
  • Rich told the radio host he may raise the landowner’s issues directly with President Trump. Alabama Power did not respond to a request for comment from me. The utility so far has declined to address specifics with local media, citing ongoing litigation over the conflict.
  • If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say this is a turning point for the Trump administration’s efforts to expand its energy culture war saber-rattling tactics beyond renewable energy permitting. So much of the transmission process, for example, happens outside of any federal purview. Should Rich actually try to raise this issue with the president, what could Trump do besides a Truth Social post? If that’s where this heads, then I think we’re seeing this effort hit a wall, at least for now.

2. Ozaukee County, Wisconsin — Speaking of walls, we just saw the political power of the data center resistance hit one in the Badger State.

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Spotlight

Why Energy Developers Are Freaking Out Over Trump’s Farmland Plans

Renewable and pipeline companies alike have come out against the administration’s attempt to leverage an obscure Cold War-era law.

Farming and solar panels.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The Trump administration is considering changing its interpretation of an obscure law related to farmland ownership to transform it into a national security instrument with profound impacts for U.S. renewables projects — and fossil fuels. U.S. energy developers and their trade groups are ringing alarms about the plan, arguing that Trump may be about to undermine their relationships with international investors in allied nations.

For the past week, I’ve been hearing anxious rumbling from contacts in D.C. about a proposed regulation from the Agriculture Department published on June 26. The plan has gotten little attention so far outside of energy trade publications and wonk analysis. Pay no mind to the relative quiet — anyone working in energy development needs to know what’s at stake. Explaining why this is sending D.C. energy lobbyists into a tizzy gets complicated quickly, so bear with me. But the easiest way to sum it up is a fear of death by a thousand cuts.

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