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“This is Sky Valley Fire. Evacuation alert for Bolt Creek Fire. GO! No time for delay. Load up your family and pets and LEAVE NOW.”
Imagine getting an alert like this on your phone. Your heart immediately starts pounding; your hands shake. Is it real? Could this actually be happening? All the while, as your head spins, you’re losing precious minutes of time.
Luckily for many of the people who received this actual message last year in the Seattle suburbs, the “go now” alert was a mistake. But if you live in an area with anything greater than a “low” risk of wildfire, you should have a plan in place for what to do if that alert does come. It’s far better to “overreact” and leave immediately than to risk your life — and the lives of first responders.
The good news is, wildfire evacuation plans can begin long before your phone ever buzzes with that dreaded alert. Preparing for fire season ahead of time takes, cumulatively, as little as 90 minutes — but when a fire is encroaching, the math becomes far more urgent.
Importantly: Do not wait for an evacuation notice if you feel like a fire is approaching or like you could be in danger. Trust your gut and leave immediately. Though agencies do their best to protect people with advanced notices, fire is fast and unpredictable. In fact, many survivors of the deadly fire in Lahaina, Hawaii, say they did not receive evacuation orders before the flames had closed in on them.
Here’s what to do if there’s a fire in your area:
If you are experiencing smoke from a wildfire at your home, you should be paying attention to its development — the hazards of wildfires, after all, start with the smoke. If the fire is within 20 miles of you, you should definitely start paying attention; and if it is within 10 miles of you, it’s a threat. This threat increases if you are downwind or uphill.
Do not underestimate how fast a fire can move: 6 miles per hour in forests and up to 14 miles per hour in grasslands, depending on conditions. Embers, which can ignite homes, can also travel several miles, and wind direction can also quickly shift. If a nearby wildfire is approaching the 10-mile range of your home but you haven’t received a voluntary evacuation notice or don’t feel directly endangered yet, still review this evacuation checklist from the U.S. Forest Service. If you do receive a pre-evacuation alert or notice of some kind or want to take further steps to prepare, also:
Make sure you are signed up for emergency alerts or have another way of receiving updates, such as an agency website or Twitter account or a radio tuned into the correct station. Turn the sound on and up on your phone so you’ll hear the alarm or it will wake you up if you’re asleep.
Keep your car charged or filled to half a tank of gas or more. Scope out potential evacuation routes ahead of time, planning alternative routes in case roads are blocked or closed. Authorities say you should memorize at least two ways out of your neighborhood and avoid sketchy shortcuts that might be dangerous or blocked. Otherwise, take the quickest route to the main road, highway, or freeway out of the area.
Make a plan of where you’ll go if you need to leave your home for an extended period of time. A family or friend’s house? A hotel? A community emergency shelter? Open Red Cross shelters can be found here.
Open your garage door so you’re easily able to leave if you lose power.
Round up pets and secure them so they’re easy to put into carriers and transport to the car if you need to evacuate, and so you don’t waste precious time trying to chase them down when they’re scared. As the U.S. Forest Service notes, “this is especially important with cats.”
Prepare livestock and horses, if applicable, by reviewing this checklist.
Load up your car so you are prepared to leave on short notice. Remember to pack your go-bag (here is a version of the list in Spanish); suitcases of clothes and medicine (enough for at least a few days); pet supplies like collars, food, and water bowls; important files and back-up disks; insurance and bank papers; special or sentimental items; valuable jewelry or heirlooms (or store them in a fireproof safe); photo albums; and household items like keys and purses.
Too much to remember? Washington State suggests running through the Five P’s of evacuation: People, Prescriptions, Papers, Personal Needs, and Priceless Items.
Strongly consider leaving immediately. Roads can get congested after a mandatory evacuation order is issued, potentially creating dangerous situations where you’re trapped in your car near the fire. It will also get more difficult to see as the fire gets closer and the smoke gets thicker (always evacuate with your headlights turned on). Evacuating early also gives you time to calmly prepare a plan and collect essential items. If you’re on the fence, keep in mind it’s always better to leave too early than too late.
If you have time to prepare your house ahead of your evacuation, here is a checklist from the Western Fire Chiefs Association that you can use to get ready. Keep in mind that “the accepted sequence for safe evacuation is people first, then pets, livestock, and finally property,” Idaho Firewise writes. Major steps include:
Close all windows and interior doors to prevent the spread of fire indoors if the flames reach your home, and remove any curtains from windows. Close shutters and blinds. Leave your exterior doors unlocked so firefighters can get inside if need be.
Turn on all the main lights in your house as well as outdoor lights. This will allow firefighters to be able to see and navigate around your home in smoky conditions.
Push flammable furniture away from walls and windows and to the center of the room.
Shut off gas and turn off pilot lights. Don’t forget about pilot lights in gas fireplaces.
Attach hoses to outdoor water sources — firefighters will potentially use these to defend your home. The Western Fire Chiefs Association also recommends turning the nozzle to “spray” and propping a non-flammable ladder against your house to provide roof access. Fill buckets or garbage cans with water and leave them around your property if you’re able. However, you should not leave any water running, KQED notes, since that decreases the flow available to firefighters.
Prepare yourself for evacuation. California’s ReadyForWildfire.org recommends wearing “long pants, [a] long sleeve shirt, heavy shoes/boots, [a] cap, [a] dry bandanna for face cover [or a leftover COVID mask], goggles, or glasses,” and notes that “100% cotton is preferable.”
Finally, check on, text, or call neighbors and make sure they’re aware of the fire and also prepared to leave. Let them know you are choosing to evacuate. Also email, text, or call family who live outside the area and might be worried about you to let them know of your plans.
There is only one thing to do: Leave as fast as you can.
If you get an evacuation notice (or hear the high-low siren that also signals an evacuation order in California), do not waste time checking to see if the alert is real, gathering up items around your house, or making efforts to prepare your home. Your only focus at this point should be on getting to safety as quickly as you can.
Grab your go-bag and pets and get in your car; drive with the headlights on and follow the directions of any fire or emergency officials. If you need to evacuate on foot, quickly change into long pants, a long shirt, a cap, and heavy boots, and take essential items in a backpack or easily carried duffel bag. Know what to do if you get trapped near a wildfire. Be careful of downed powerlines or other hazards. And stay out of the area until officials say it is safe to return.
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We didn’t know days like this could happen. Then we learned how bad they really are.
When I woke up this morning in Chicago, the Air Quality Index was in the 300s, and I could barely see the top of the skyscraper across the street. The weather app on my phone featured a little image of a man wearing a World War I-style full-face gas mask. That’s fun, I thought. I didn’t know it could do that.
I went downstairs. Old photographs of the city were hanging in the hotel lobby — girls playing in bathing suits next to the lake — and I realized that the haze shrouding the old Lakeshore Drive condos was in fact haze, smoke, particulate matter, and not a lens artifact. It really used to be that smoky all the time, back before the Clean Air Act. Then I glanced up and saw that the haze out the window was far worse than the century-old pollution in the picture.
It’s significant, I think, that a mass smoke-out like this has now happened to the eastern U.S. for a second time. Second times matter. When exhaust from Canadian wildfires blanketed the Northeast and parts of the Midwest in June 2023, exposing more Americans to wildfire smoke than on any previous day in history, one could almost write it off as a freak occurrence. It was upsetting, sure, and reminiscent of California’s climate-addled amber skies. But didn’t wildfire smoke also descend on New England once in the 1780s? Even on a warmer planet, couldn’t this remain a once-in-a-century blip?
Twice in just over three years, though — that‘s more than a hiccup. That’s almost a trend. To get smoked out once may be regarded as a misfortune; for it to recur again, without any plan to respond, starts to look like carelessness. The federal government is doing roughly diddly squat about adaptation — President Trump can build a fan on the border and make Canada pay for it — but state and local governments across the eastern U.S. will now need to reckon with a new form of extreme weather. You grew up with snow days, but now we’ll have smoke days — and schools and sports leagues and concert venues will need rules about how to deal with them. When should games be canceled, tickets refunded? Is smoke more like a heat wave or a hurricane? Hotels and office buildings will need to review their ventilation policies and possibly upgrade their equipment; municipal emergency response plans will be revised and printed in triplicate.
All this will happen because the smoke has invaded a second time — and arguably a third, if you count last year’s minor episode — and that means it could come back again. For that reason, this event strikes me as a much bigger deal than what happened in 2023. The smoke is now a fact of life; institutions will need a policy about it. The tortious creep of litigation risk will enforce that outcome, even if no federal official enforces it.
So it goes. But to be clear, this new inconvenience is not what worries me most about today’s events. No, what frightens me instead is that today’s airborne toxic event is not something that was supposed to happen. Until a few years ago, we had not thought too hard about whether a major smoke exposure event like this could happen on the East Coast at all. It had not seemed possible.
For years, economists and climate scientists have simulated how global warming might affect the U.S. and global economies. They poured years of careful work into this modeling, and they simulated — with ever-increasing levels of statistical persnicketiness — what extreme heat and sea-level rise might do to agricultural yield, labor productivity, energy demand, heat mortality, and real estate values, among other potential sources of damage. This work was useful; it improved our practical understanding of coastal flooding, to name one example. It also helped calibrate U.S. regulatory policy, even if it never achieved the crowning heights of helping to set a national carbon tax.
Yet these careful models almost never accounted for mass smoke exposure days. Indeed, the kind of thing that happened this week — when heavy haze blows down from Canada and exposes more than 100 million people to hazardous air — was not countenanced by the simulations at all. Only in recent years did economists begin to study events like these, and only because mass exposure events like 2023’s happened first.
We’ve long known that the tiny shreds of particulate matter in wildfire smoke dance across the body’s barriers and penetrate its deep places, etching their way into lung, heart, and brain tissue. Inflammation follows. What makes days like today unique is the scale: Tens of millions of Americans inhaling wildfire smoke at the same time. As we’ve started studying this phenomenon, it’s become clear that the mortality effects of days like today, the deaths elevated above what you’d otherwise expect, can persist for years. That becomes extraordinarily expensive for society.
How costly? “When monetized,” a group of Stanford and Princeton economists wrote in Nature last year, in the first major study on the topic, “the climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the U.S.A.”
You read that right: The cost of climate-worsened wildfire smoke alone is larger than what earlier studies said every other estimated cost of climate change would be, combined.
To summarize, wildfire smoke did not appear in our economic simulations of climate change. As recently as a few years ago, we did not really know that days like today — or June 7, 2023; or September 15, 2020; or September 9, 2020 — could occur. Then they happened. And happened again. And then we studied them and discovered that, in fact, they may be more expensive for the U.S. economy than we once thought climate change itself would be.
That worries me. Now we know these smoke-out days can happen; now they are fast becoming a rare but predictable feature of summer life. But until recently they were unimaginable. What other ignominies, what other tail risks and airborne surprises, are lurking in the uncontrolled experiment we’re running on the biosphere? What else — unforecast, unmodeled, unstudied, unthought of — lies ahead? After 10 years of covering the climate system, I am not someone who lies sleepless fretting about atmospheric CO2. But I do wonder what else we don’t know enough about to ask.
“Microsoft, you can’t hide, we can see your dirty side!”
Protestors interrupted one of the final sessions of PNW Climate Week — a conference that brings together climate leaders across Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia — objecting to Microsoft’s rising carbon emissions from data centers and partnerships with oil and gas companies. The company’s Chief Sustainability Officer Melanie Nakagawa was having a one on one conversation with GeekWire climate reporter Lisa Stiffler at Seattle’s City Hall when protestors carrying signs reading “Microsoft’s AI pollutes” and other slogans began shouting from the audience.
I was there, having just moderated the prior panel on how to finance Washington’s clean energy ambitions. Early on there were some rumblings in the crowd from up front. “Climate leaders don’t build gas pipelines in Moses Lake,” was the first objection I heard clearly. It came shortly after Nakagawa kicked off the conversation by highlighting Microsoft’s partnership with sustainable aviation fuel startup Twelve, which recently opened its first commercial-scale SAF plant in Moses Lake, Washington. The tech giant has supported the project through a strategic investment from its Climate Innovation Fund, as well as an offtake agreement for the fuel that will help offset its emissions from employee travel.
Whether Microsoft is building a gas pipeline in this particular community I haven’t been able to determine, though it seems irrelevant to Twelve’s SAF facility, which doesn’t rely on natural gas. But it is true that Microsoft is one of the largest power consumers in Grant County, Washington, home to Moses Lake, where a natural gas pipeline operator is looking to expand its network to accommodate data center load growth.
Another audience interruption was more pointed. “How does signing a 20-year deal with Chevron help you reach your clean energy goals?,” one protestor asked, referring to Microsoft's recently announced power purchase agreement with Chevron for nearly 2.7 gigawatts of natural gas-fired power to supply a West Texas data center. The project represents one of the largest gas-powered artificial intelligence developments in the U.S., and Stiffler acknowledged that she had been planning to ask about it, herself.
Nakagawa answered the question. at least in part, saying “that project with Chevron is initially using natural gas and it’s a natural gas contract,” before emphasizing that the company has built “over 4.5 gigawatts of clean energy already today,” and remains committed to balancing speed-to-power with its clean energy goals. She added that, “with this deal in particular, we’re looking at a range of tools in our toolbox to ensure that we can continue to grow our power, but also do so in a way that is responsible and sustainable.” She stopped short, however, of making any commitments to transitioning the project to renewable energy over time.
The session became more chaotic from there. Another protestor stood up, shouting that “Microsoft is enabling genocide in Palestine.” Other activists joined in, while still other audience members shouted back. As Nakagawa recovered and resumed answering a question from Stiffler about Microsoft’s recent decision to pause its carbon removal purchases after years of dominating the nascent industry, protestors throughout the crowd began a chant of “Microsoft, you can’t hide, we can see your dirty side.” Security eventually shepherded many of them out.
Stiffler continued speaking with Nakawaga about the company’s clean energy efforts, touching on many of the protestors’ concerns as she asked about community opposition to data centers, the role of large corporations in the clean energy transition, and whether Microsoft can realistically achieve its goal of becoming carbon negative by 2030.
Nakawaga emphasized that the company must, “first and foremost, listen to where the communities are and what they are calling for.” Regarding the concerns she hears most often, she explained that “first has been transparency. Second has been around resource uses and what are we doing about those resource uses. We’re hearing about jobs and employment and investments in education, investments in housing.”
If this session was any indication, those concerns won’t go away anytime soon.
Heat kills more Americans than any other extreme weather event in the United States. But wildfire smoke — while not strictly “weather” — appears to kill even more. Current excess death estimates put American heat mortality at about 10,000 people per year, or possibly as high as 12,000. Recent studies on wildfire PM 2.5 exposure suggest a mortality of double that: 24,000 all-cause deaths every year.
Needless to say, wildfire smoke is definitely not something you want to inhale if you can avoid it. (And really, you should try to.) But for the 115 million Americans in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the country who’ve been exposed to hazardous air from the fires in Ontario and Minnesota this week, there’s a chance that the damage is already done. According to a wildfire smoke mortality estimation tool from Cornell University’s School of Public Health and the Northeast Regional Climate Center, the total mortality for this smoke event could already be as high as 424 people so far, including nearly 100 in Michigan and more than 50 in both New York and Wisconsin.
Alistair Hayden, an assistant professor of practice in Cornell’s Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, stressed to me that the tool is a “first draft,” and that his team is still working on getting it peer-reviewed. “We intend it as a hypothesis that people can test in the coming weeks or months to confirm our numbers,” Hayden told me. “I’m really hoping to be proven wrong.”
But Hayden also emphasized that while the West Coast might historically be where many smoke-related deaths have occurred, “this is the third out of four years [in the Northeast] that we’re having the smoke, so it seems like something we should be planning for,” he said. “It reminds me of that saying: ‘Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.’”
Admittedly, the smoke this week is a bit of a freak occurrence. A cooler-than-average sea surface pattern across the North Pacific, known as a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, helped produce weak low-pressure areas in the northwestern part of the United States, which in turn allowed for heat domes to develop across the Southwest and Plains. After one did just that earlier this month, the hot, high-pressure dome then shifted north, where it developed “dryness across Canada, followed by the lightning-producing thunderstorms,” Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told me. Then, boom: widespread fires.
“It is very unusual to have a combination of an El Niño and a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,” Merrill went on. “That’s one of the unusual factors this year, which contributed to the heat dome being farther north in that particular position.” The heat dome and jet stream then worked together to direct the thick smoke down into some of the most populous regions of Canada and the U.S.
That’s what makes this particular smoke event so bad. Were the smoke blowing over remote regions of Canada, as it would under more usual conditions, “then the big cities and the Great Lakes wouldn’t experience the smoke; it would have gone north toward the Hudson Bay and then Greenland,” Merrill said. In fact, the Canadian fire season is tracking below average overall; it’s the meteorological conditions that made this week’s smoke events, as one outlet put it, “the perfect storm.”
Wildfire smoke in the region is not historically anomalous, however. A 1903 article in The New York Times describes a “yellow day” similar to smoky events in 1894, 1881, and earlier. But large-scale burns in Canada’s dense, remote boreal, which produce more smoke, are increasing. Though it’s difficult to attribute any one wildfire directly to climate change because of the complex nature of such events, we do know that fire weather is becoming more common with the warming of the atmosphere from greenhouse gas emissions. As modeled by Zeke Hausfather in the Friday edition of his newsletter The Climate Brink, “hotter, drier seasons burn the most” in Canada — and “recent years cluster there” as the country has outpaced the global average in warming.
But as Hausfather also writes, “While overall area burned is the climate-linked trend, who breathes the smoke on a given week in July is mostly driven by the weather.” This is similar to the way that, though it may be a quiet year in the Atlantic, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in the right (or wrong) spot for the season to be remembered as catastrophic.
On the other hand, as foolish as it might be for the Central Plains and East Coast to still believe smoke is the exclusive domain of Westerners, it is also a mistake to assume smoke only comes from without. As I reported earlier this year, the Eastern half of the country has seen a 10-fold jump in the frequency of large burns over the last 40 years. Nowhere is safe from the smoke.
Planning and preparation, then, should be paramount. But as Grist learned last month, there are no established Air Quality Index numbers that would trigger the postponement, relocation, or cancellation of, say, a FIFA World Cup game, including the final, which is set to be played in New Jersey on Sunday. White House officials are reportedly meeting with FIFA’s president on Friday to discuss contingencies, given the unhealthy air quality in the region.
Which brings us back to Hayden’s modeling. He offered a note of optimism in that research by Stanford’s Sam Heft-Neal and his colleagues indicates that emergency room visits do not rise in tandem with increasing wildfire smoke. “As smoke gets bad, the health impacts get bigger. But then as smoke gets worse and worse, the amount of health impacts actually goes down, measured for emergency room visits,” Hayden said. “The idea is that people modify their behavior in higher smoke” — say, by staying indoors, wearing masks, or canceling outdoor events.
It’s time to treat smoke as an East Coast phenomenon, in other words. Doing so will save lives. “Will [smoke events] become more frequent in the future? Most likely we will see a recurrence,” Merrill, the meteorologist, told me. “How often they happen is yet to be determined.”