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This week's hottest real estate listings were all about over-the-top sports fandom and over-the-top climate risks.
Glued to real estate posts on The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Dwell, Spaces, The Modern House, or Architectural Digest and wondering how those gorgeous homes will hold up in the next decades? I have you covered.
Heatmap has partnered with my new climate risk platform, Habitable. Every Friday, we add a climate risk score to the real estate listings featured in the news this week and ask: Could you live here as the climate changes?
Using a model developed by a team of Berkeley data scientists at Climate Check, Habitable scores each property for heat, flood, drought, and fire risk on a scale of 1-10. One represents the lowest risk and 10 is the highest. Our rating for each hazard is based on climate change projections through 2050. (You can check your own home’s climate risk here.)
For today’s edition, I apply the Habitable Index to houses in the news this week that are notable for over the top sports amenities. The properties feature soccer fields, golf courses, pickleball courts, and so many basketball courts.
Read on to see if the properties of this competitive set are habitable.
Nestseekers
The 7-acre Spring Ivy Estate in Old Westbury, New York, is on the market for $50 million. It’s not a house, it’s a resort. Amenity rich, the house is 25,000 square feet with grand luxurious rooms. There are soaring ceilings, a formal dining room, seven bedrooms, 13 bathrooms and an indoor-outdoor kitchen. It may not seem worth the price tag until you reach the lower level entertainment ‘complex.
Nestseekers
There’s a game room, gym, indoor pool, billiards room, a bowling alley, 12-seat movie ‘complex’ with a real sports bar — including three screens over the bar. But what makes it worth the ticket price is the professional NBA-grade basketball court and an indoor golf simulator. The property scores well for climate risk, so let the games begin.
Featured in Mansion Global and listed for $50 million.
Douglas Elliman
The co-owner of the Boston Celtics listed his suburban estate in Weston, Massachusetts, for sale as he downsizes. On 4 acres, it’s 15,000 square feet with seven beds, seven bathes, not one, but 2 basketball courts (one indoor, one outdoor), along with a spa, gym, courts, and a pool. For ultra wealthy, climate-concerned, basketball-crazed buyers, it’s a slam dunk: The house has no risk for flood, barely a risk for drought or fire, and moderate heat risk. There will be years to practice foul shots all day long, year round, in any weather.
Featured in WSJ for just under $9 million.
Zillow
Super Bowl-winning quarterback Patrick Mahomes has put his Kansas City, Missouri, home on the market for $2,900,000. It’s a small house in a chic neighborhood (near the country club!), but it doesn’t lack amenities. The house has a closet that fits Mahomes’ entire collection of 180 pairs of Adidas sneakers, plus a putting green in the backyard. Habitable checked: The climate forecast, while HOT, is also a winner.
Featured in The Kansas City Star and listed for $2.9 million.
French King Fine Properties
This seven-bedroom, eight-bath stone house in Nashville, Tennessee, has all the amenities of a luxury hotel: two pools, a spa, and a full gym that you won’t have to share with other guests. Perfect for a multi-sport family, there’s lots to do here — gardening, cooking at the indoor-outdoor kitchen, swimming laps, and working out at the gym along with playing tennis, pickleball, volleyball, or basketball on the multi-sport court. The only drawback is the boiling heat — hopefully any exercise-loving buyer likes to sweat.
Featured in Mansion Global and listed for just under $10 million.
Douglas Elliman
He’s not Liberace, but Rod Stewart's house decor will make you wonder. For $70 million, his just-listed, 28,000-square-feet Beverly Hills mansion offers a professional soccer field with two full-size gyms and the most luxurious workout yet.
Douglas Elliman
But hydration will be a problem with extreme flood and fire risk forecasted for the property. Run. Run. Run. Fast.
Featured in The Real Deal and listed for $70 million.
DPP Real Estate
This sprawling house in Rancho Mirage in the desert of Coachella Valley looks lush as you drive up the long, gated drive lined with old-growth carob trees. Amenities and activities abound here. Where to start the workout? Try the gym housed in a former stable, then jump in the 80-foot pool before sweaty games on the tennis court, basketball court, putting green, and bocce ball and competitive horseshoe court. Only then are you allowed to check out the hammock. The punishing schedule is no more punishing than the climate here. A full menu of possibilities await but habitability is not one of them. There’s extreme risk of drought, and medium risk for heat, floods, and fires. Yikes.
Featured in Dwell and listed for $4 million.
James Edition
Outside of Salt Lake City Utah, this 50,738-square-foot home is one of the largest homes in the United States (it’s apparently as big as the White House). The theater here has 27 seats! There are 20-foot ceilings and two staircases out front. There are hundreds if not thousands of chandeliers. Sculptures, ornamental window hangings, bathtubs for two! It’s all here for you.
And then some. The pool is not just a pool! It’s a water slide, with a lazy river and rope swings. There is a basketball court, a two-lane bowling alley, a 27-seat theater room, an exercise room, a game room. There is a pirate ship and slide in the children’s play room. And that is just inside.
James Edition
Outside are trails for hiking, biking, camping, hunting, horseback riding, ATV riding, snowmobiling, and cross-country skiing.
Jam packed, but habitable? Sadly, no, because this $17 million house, the pool, the chandeliers, all of it are at extremely high risk of being eventually lost to floods, fire, heat, and drought. Enjoy it while you can.
Featured at Mansion Global and listed for $17 million.
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Why the new “reasoning” models might gobble up more electricity — at least in the short term
What happens when artificial intelligence takes some time to think?
The newest set of models from OpenAI, o1-mini and o1-preview, exhibit more “reasoning” than existing large language models and associated interfaces, which spit out answers to prompts almost instantaneously.
Instead, the new model will sometimes “think” for as long as a minute or two. “Through training, they learn to refine their thinking process, try different strategies, and recognize their mistakes,” OpenAI announced in a blog post last week. The company said these models perform better than their existing ones on some tasks, especially related to math and science. “This is a significant advancement and represents a new level of AI capability,” the company said.
But is it also a significant advancement in energy usage?
In the short run at least, almost certainly, as spending more time “thinking” and generating more text will require more computing power. As Erik Johannes Husom, a researcher at SINTEF Digital, a Norwegian research organization, told me, “It looks like we’re going to get another acceleration of generative AI’s carbon footprint.”
Discussion of energy use and large language models has been dominated by the gargantuan requirements for “training,” essentially running a massive set of equations through a corpus of text from the internet. This requires hardware on the scale of tens of thousands of graphical processing units and an estimated 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to run.
Training GPT-4 cost “more than” $100 million OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has said; the next generation models will likely cost around $1 billion, according to Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei, a figure that might balloon to $100 billion for further generation models, according to Oracle founder Larry Ellison.
While a huge portion of these costs are hardware, the energy consumption is considerable as well. (Meta reported that when training its Llama 3 models, power would sometimes fluctuate by “tens of megawatts,” enough to power thousands of homes). It’s no wonder that OpenAI’s chief executive Sam Altman has put hundreds of millions of dollars into a fusion company.
But the models are not simply trained, they're used out in the world, generating outputs (think of what ChatGPT spits back at you). This process tends to be comparable to other common activities like streaming Netflix or using a lightbulb. This can be done with different hardware and the process is more distributed and less energy intensive.
As large language models are being developed, most computational power — and therefore most electricity — is used on training, Charlie Snell, a PhD student at University of California at Berkeley who studies artificial intelligence, told me. “For a long time training was the dominant term in computing because people weren’t using models much.” But as these models become more popular, that balance could shift.
“There will be a tipping point depending on the user load, when the total energy consumed by the inference requests is larger than the training,” said Jovan Stojkovic, a graduate student at the University of Illinois who has written about optimizing inference in large language models.
And these new reasoning models could bring that tipping point forward because of how computationally intensive they are.
“The more output a model produces, the more computations it has performed. So, long chain-of-thoughts leads to more energy consumption,” Husom of SINTEF Digital told me.
OpenAI staffers have been downright enthusiastic about the possibilities of having more time to think, seeing it as another breakthrough in artificial intelligence that could lead to subsequent breakthroughs on a range of scientific and mathematical problems. “o1 thinks for seconds, but we aim for future versions to think for hours, days, even weeks. Inference costs will be higher, but what cost would you pay for a new cancer drug? For breakthrough batteries? For a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis? AI can be more than chatbots,” OpenAI researcher Noam Brown tweeted.
But those “hours, days, even weeks” will mean more computation and “there is no doubt that the increased performance requires a lot of computation,” Husom said, along with more carbon emissions.
But Snell told me that might not be the end of the story. It’s possible that over the long term, the overall computing demands for constructing and operating large language models will remain fixed or possibly even decline.
While “the default is that as capabilities increase, demand will increase and there will be more inference,” Snell told me, “maybe we can squeeze reasoning capability into a small model ... Maybe we spend more on inference but it’s a much smaller model.”
OpenAI hints at this possibility, describing their o1-mini as “a smaller model optimized for STEM reasoning,” in contrast to other, larger models that “are pre-trained on vast datasets” and “have broad world knowledge,” which can make them “expensive and slow for real-world applications.” OpenAI is suggesting that a model can know less but think more and deliver comparable or better results to larger models — which might mean more efficient and less energy hungry large language models.
In short, thinking might use less brain power than remembering, even if you think for a very long time.
On Azerbaijan’s plans, offshore wind auctions, and solar jobs
Current conditions: Thousands of firefighters are battling raging blazes in Portugal • Shanghai could be hit by another typhoon this week • More than 18 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours in Carolina Beach, which forecasters say is a one-in-a-thousand-year event.
Azerbaijan, the host of this year’s COP29, today put forward a list of “non-negotiated” initiatives for the November climate summit that will “supplement” the official mandated program. The action plan includes the creation of a new “Climate Finance Action Fun” that will take (voluntary) contributions from fossil fuel producing countries, a call for increasing battery storage capacity, an appeal for a global “truce” during the event, and a declaration aimed at curbing methane emissions from waste (which the Financial Times noted is “only the third most common man-made source of methane, after the energy and agricultural sectors”). The plan makes no mention of furthering efforts to phase out fossil fuels in the energy system.
The Interior Department set a date for an offshore wind energy lease sale in the Gulf of Maine, an area which the government sees as suitable for developing floating offshore wind technology. The auction will take place on October 29 and cover eight areas on the Outer Continental Shelf off Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The area could provide 13 gigawatts of offshore wind energy, if fully developed. The Biden administration has a goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, and has approved about half that amount so far. The DOI’s terms and conditions for the October lease sale include “stipulations designed to promote the development of a robust domestic U.S. supply chain for floating wind.” Floating offshore wind turbines can be deployed in much deeper waters than traditional offshore projects, and could therefore unlock large areas for clean power generation. Last month the government gave the green light for researchers to study floating turbines in the Gulf of Maine.
In other wind news, BP is selling its U.S. onshore wind business, bp Wind Energy. The firm’s 10 wind farm projects have a total generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts and analysts think they could be worth $2 billion. When it comes to renewables, the fossil fuel giant said it is focusing on investing in solar growth, and onshore wind is “not aligned” with those plans.
The number of jobs in the U.S. solar industry last year grew to 279,447, up 6% from 2022, according to a new report from the nonprofit Interstate Renewable Energy Council. Utility-scale solar added 1,888 jobs in 2023, a 6.8% increase and a nice rebound from 2022, when the utility-scale solar market recorded a loss in jobs. The report warns that we might not see the same kind of growth for solar jobs in 2024, though. Residential installations have dropped, and large utility-scale projects are struggling with grid connection. The report’s authors also note that as the industry grows, it faces a shortage of skilled workers.
Interstate Renewable Energy Council
Most employers reported that hiring qualified solar workers was difficult, especially in installation and project development. “It’s difficult because our projects are built in very rural areas where there just aren't a lot of people,” one interviewee who works at a utility-scale solar firm said. “We strive to hire as many local people as possible because we want local communities to feel the economic impact or benefit from our projects. So in some communities where we go, it is difficult to find local people that are skilled and can perform the work.”
The torrential rain that has battered central Europe is tapering off a bit, but the danger of rising water remains. “The massive amounts of rain that fell is now working its way through the river systems and we are starting to see flooding in areas that avoided the worst of the rain,” BBC meteorologist Matt Taylor explained. The Polish city of Nysa told its 44,000 residents to leave yesterday as water rose. In the Czech Republic, 70% of the town of Litovel was submerged in 3 feet of flooding. The death toll from the disaster has risen to 18. Now the forecast is calling for heavy rain in Italy. “The catastrophic rainfall hitting central Europe is exactly what scientists expect with climate change,” Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist with Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, toldThe Guardian.
A recent study examining the effects of London’s ultra-low emissions zone on how students get to school found that a year after the rules came into effect, many students had switched to walking, biking, or taking public transport instead of being driven in private vehicles.
Welcome to Decarbonize Your Life, Heatmap’s special report that aims to help you make decisions in your own life that are better for the climate, better for you, and better for the world we all live in. This is our attempt, in other words, to assist you in living something like a normal life while also making progress in the fight against climate change.
That means making smarter and more informed decisions about how climate change affects your life — and about how your life affects climate change. The point is not what you shouldn’t do (although there is some of that). It’s about what you should do to exert the most leverage on the global economic system and, hopefully, nudge things toward decarbonization just a little bit faster.
We certainly think we’ve hit upon a better way to think about climate action, but you don’t have to take our word for it. Keep reading here for more on how (and why) we think about decarbonizing your life — or just skip ahead to our recommendations, below.