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Are These Midcentury Homes Ready for the Climate of the Next Midcentury?

The week's hottest real estate listings, ranked by climate risk.

A midcentury modern home being flooded.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Glued to real estate posts on The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Dwell, Spaces, The Modern House, or Architectural Digest and wondering how those gorgeous homes will hold up in the next decades? I have you covered.

Heatmap has partnered with my new climate risk platform, Habitable. Every week, we add a climate risk score to the real estate listings featured in the news and ask: Could you live here as the climate changes?

Using a model developed by a team of Berkeley data scientists at Climate Check, Habitable scores each property for heat, flood, drought, and fire risk on a scale of 1-10. One represents the lowest risk and 10 is the highest. Our rating for each hazard is based on climate change projections through 2050. (You can check your own home’s climate risk here.)

For today’s edition, I apply the Habitable Index to the many midcentury homes coming on the market for the first time ever. Read on and find out out which of these mid-century homes will prove most climate resilient, from best to worst.

1. This mid-century treehouse is a slice of perfection.

John Marsh Davis hillside mid-century house.Zillow

This John Marsh Davis spectacular hillside mid-century house is worth snapping up. On the market for the first time since the original owners (and architect) built it, the house allows for indoor-outdoor living at scale. What’s more, this property should be intact until the next mid-century. Its climate risk is low, with no flood risk and only moderate drought, heat, and fire risk. Race you to Kentfield.

Featured in WSJ and listed for just under $5 million.


2. Hang on — that Flying Nun House is going, going, might already be gone.

Flying Nun House.Zillow

In Bellevue, Nebraska, the “Flying Nun House” just went to auction and could very well have sold by the time we publish. This wholly original home is a time capsule seemingly untouched since it was built and decorated in the 1970s. And no need to worry about that pristine shag rug flooding either; there is little if any climate risk other than the high heat typical for the region. Nebraska here we come!

Featured on @zillowgonewild and listed for $695,000.


3. Chesapeake Bay modern made to withstand floods.

 Tred Avon River house.Zillow

This Habitable house on the Tred Avon River in Marlyand is built to withstand whatever the environment plans to throw at it. Yes, it’s on a river but the house sits 18 feet above the mean high water level. With geothermal heating systems and concrete rain screens and a dock with power lifts with water deep enough to accommodate sailboats, this house is climate ready. Forget Nebraska, race you to Maryland.

Featured on @list.modern for just under $4 million.


4. A San Francisco treat

Oakland house.Compass

With spectacular views over San Francisco Bay in Oakland, this mid-century house on a hilltop surrounded by oak trees and horse trails is on the market for the first time in 67 years. The climate risk is minimal for flood and heat, but the fire and drought risk is something worth considering.

Featured in Dwell and listed for $2.9 million.


5. Will this private island sink you?

Starboard Rock Sanctuary.Christie’s

This mid-century modern home sits on its own private rock island and connects to the trails of Starboard Rock Sanctuary overlooking Acadia National Park in Maine. And while it’s not the worst flood risk we’ve seen, the 7/10 score still may force you onboard an actual boat soon enough.

Featured on @TheCreativesAgent and listed for $1.7 million.


6. This California house knows it has a fire problem.

Amazing modernist California home.Christie’s

This amazing modernist California home was part of a 1950s housing cooperative in Los Angeles. It has been restored by architectural preservationist HabHouse and is now for sale.

With concrete and the amazing carport, the house is fairly fire proof which is helpful considering the 8/10 fire risk. Floods and heat won’t be a problem, but like much of LA, the drought risk will make life here a bit parched. Porsche not included.

Featured on @TheCreativesAgent and listed for just over $4.1 million.


7. Mid-Century Shelter Island marvel unlikely to weather the storms.

 Bertrand Goldberg house.Sotheby’s

A design marvel built in 1952 by architect Bertrand Goldberg who designed Chicago’s Marina City is for sale. Combining plywood, a massive stone fireplace, and floor-to-ceiling windows with full-scale views across the Long Island Sound, it’s a one of a kind home. Shame about the location, though, because this historic structure has a 10/10 risk of flooding. It will be sad to see this beauty swallowed by the sea.

Featured in Dwell and listed for $14 million.

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Bruce Westerman, the Capitol, a data center, and power lines.
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After many months of will-they-won’t-they, it seems that the dream (or nightmare, to some) of getting a permitting reform bill through Congress is squarely back on the table.

“Permitting reform” has become a catch-all term for various ways of taking a machete to the thicket of bureaucracy bogging down infrastructure projects. Comprehensive permitting reform has been tried before but never quite succeeded. Now, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House are taking another stab at it with the SPEED Act, which passed the House Natural Resources Committee the week before Thanksgiving. The bill attempts to untangle just one portion of the permitting process — the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA.

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Hotspots

GOP Lawmaker Asks FAA to Rescind Wind Farm Approval

And more on the week’s biggest fights around renewable energy.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Benton County, Washington – The Horse Heaven wind farm in Washington State could become the next Lava Ridge — if the Federal Aviation Administration wants to take up the cause.

  • On Monday, Dan Newhouse, Republican congressman of Washington, sent a letter to the FAA asking them to review previous approvals for Horse Heaven, claiming that the project’s development would significantly impede upon air traffic into the third largest airport in the state, which he said is located ten miles from the project site. To make this claim Newhouse relied entirely on the height of the turbines. He did not reference any specific study finding issues.
  • There’s a wee bit of irony here: Horse Heaven – a project proposed by Scout Clean Energy – first set up an agreement to avoid air navigation issues under the first Trump administration. Nevertheless, Newhouse asked the agency to revisit the determination. “There remains a great deal of concern about its impact on safe and reliable air operations,” he wrote. “I believe a rigorous re-examination of the prior determination of no hazard is essential to properly and accurately assess this project’s impact on the community.”
  • The “concern” Newhouse is referencing: a letter sent from residents in his district in eastern Washington whose fight against Horse Heaven I previously chronicled a full year ago for The Fight. In a letter to the FAA in September, which Newhouse endorsed, these residents wrote there were flaws under the first agreement for Horse Heaven that failed to take into account the full height of the turbines.
  • I was first to chronicle the risk of the FAA grounding wind project development at the beginning of the Trump administration. If this cause is taken up by the agency I do believe it will send chills down the spines of other project developers because, up until now, the agency has not been weaponized against the wind industry like the Interior Department or other vectors of the Transportation Department (the FAA is under their purview).
  • When asked for comment, FAA spokesman Steven Kulm told me: “We will respond to the Congressman directly.” Kulm did not respond to an additional request for comment on whether the agency agreed with the claims about Horse Heaven impacting air traffic.

2. Dukes County, Massachusetts – The Trump administration signaled this week it will rescind the approvals for the New England 1 offshore wind project.

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Q&A

How Rep. Sean Casten Is Thinking of Permitting Reform

A conversation with the co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition

Rep. Sean Casten.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Rep. Sean Casten, co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of climate hawkish Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. Casten and another lawmaker, Rep. Mike Levin, recently released the coalition’s priority permitting reform package known as the Cheap Energy Act, which stands in stark contrast to many of the permitting ideas gaining Republican support in Congress today. I reached out to talk about the state of play on permitting, where renewables projects fit on Democrats’ priority list in bipartisan talks, and whether lawmakers will ever address the major barrier we talk about every week here in The Fight: local control. Our chat wound up immensely informative and this is maybe my favorite Q&A I’ve had the liberty to write so far in this newsletter’s history.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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