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Earlier this month, the electric-car maker Rivian announced its new SUV, the R2 — a $45,000 family hauler that will get more than 300 miles in range. It also debuted the R3 and R3X hatchbacks, which entranced online car nerds.
These new Rivian models are sleek and important, but they won’t go on sale until 2026 at the earliest. Can Rivian last that long? We also chat about how electric vehicles’ physical requirements — big batteries, high voltage wires — are changing the design of cars themselves.
In this week’s episode, Rob and Jesse discuss Rivian’s quest to survive, how electrification is creating new vehicle categories, and the coolest EVs coming down the pike.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: There’s this term called carcinization in evolutionary biology.
Jesse Jenkins: Ooh.
Meyer: People know this meme, which is that things in the sea tend to evolve into crabs. There’s lots of animals that look like crabs in the sea that are not true crabs, so to speak, because the crab is like a very successful bottom dweller form factor. And so animals that do not start as crabs, once they fill the same ecological niche as crabs, will wind up looking like crabs after you know 10 million, 15 million years.
To remember another guy, I have been thinking also a lot of the — again, if you’re not driving, Google this — the 1990s Toyota Previa, which was a kind of, it was a minivan that was like a half oval. It was kind of pill shaped. And again, the wheels were right at the front and right at the back. It was a more successful car, you’ll see it, it was the iconic 90s Toyota minivan.
And I do feel like, to some degree, the whole car market is undergoing this process of carcinization, where what is actually the vehicle that people want the most, especially families want the most, is a minivan. But minivans are not seen as cool or rugged, and so the whole car market is like trying to generate a vehicle that is as close to the Previa as possible but does not look like a mini— You know, it’s not actually, but to some degree I feel like we keep evolving minivans again and again.
If you think about the history of what the family car has been, where it was a station wagon in the 70s and 80s, then it was a minivan. Now it's this crossover SUV thing.
Jenkins: Yeah, because they make a lot of sense.
Meyer: Those are, broadly, very similar cars. They’re very similar, right? They let you seat two to three kids and they give you a lot of space in the back. But as fashion changes and what's cool, we have to keep redesigning that form factor for just what’s trendy at the moment. But we’re just dancing around this common design.
Jenkins: Yeah, it’s really interesting. There’s such a funny love hate relationship out there with minivans. I mean, they are incredibly useful cars, right? But it’s so hard culturally. It’s so hard to be like, Oh, I got a minivan, I gotta drive a minivan now. I turned 40 this year, so I’m right there. I grew up—
Meyer: You're closer to your midlife crisis than I am here.
Jenkins: —in a household with, originally, when I was first born, they had two Volkswagen bugs. And then as we, my sister and I grew up and we needed more space, both my parents traded in their bugs for Volkswagen minibuses. So we had the Volkswagen bus. And it was like the best family car growing up, right? Because we could all camp in it. Like, you know, we could throw the back seat down and put a mattress there. One of us could sleep on the floor, the middle seats. All my friends would fit inside it for trips to the beach. You know, it was just a super useful vehicle.
And of course that, you know, that sort of design atrophied out in terms of the mass market. People still buy them to convert for campers and things like that, like the Volkswagen California and other kinds of models like that in the van segment. But it’s interesting, the ID.4 Buzz is coming back to the market in the U.S. this year, as well. It’s the sort of rebirth of theVolkswagen microbus, and I'm really curious to see how it does because it’s a cool design. It’s a very retro forward, right? Which is very similar to how the R3 looks, I'd say.
I'll come back to that in a minute. But I’m really curious to see how it sells. I know my family’s been really interested in it, waiting for it to come out and see what it actually looks like in real life, and maybe test drive it and see if it’s something we might want in the future. But I would love to see more in that category, right? The van.
And you know, the SUV is really just trying to imitate a van with rugged looks that you really don't need. If you just admit it, you just want a minivan.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…
Advanced Energy United educates, engages, and advocates for policies that allow our member companies to compete to power our economy with 100% clean energy, working with decision makers and energy market regulators to achieve this goal. Together, we are united in our mission to accelerate the transition to 100% clean energy in America. Learn more at advancedenergyunited.org/heatmap
KORE Power provides the commercial, industrial, and utility markets with functional solutions that advance the clean energy transition worldwide. KORE Power's technology and manufacturing capabilities provide direct access to next generation battery cells, energy storage systems that scale to grid+, EV power & infrastructure, and intuitive asset management to unlock energy strategies across a myriad of applications. Explore more at korepower.com.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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Current conditions: A new nor’easter is washing the ocean over North Carolina’s Highway 12 right as crews complete reconstruction on the Outer Banks thoroughfare following last month’s storm • After whipping Mexico’s Pacific Coast with heavy rains, Hurricane Trudy has weakened to a Category 1 storm • Super Typhoon Champi knocked out power for more than half of Guam before barreling toward the Philippines as a potential Category 5 storm.
Last week was the worst week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since President Donald Trump’s tariffs roiled the market in April 2025. The reason? Hotter than expected federal data on inflation fueled fears of an interest rate hike that could prove devastating to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investors were already worrying the physical investments would cost more than giants such as ChatGPT-maker OpenAI or Claude-creator Anthropic are set to earn. But on Monday, semiconductor makers such as Oracle, Intel, and Micron Technology rallied as the AI rout came to an end. Yet CoreWeave, the cloud-computing heavyweight that led the selloff last week, closed slightly lower. The issue, investors told CNBC, is the company’s debt load. “The market tends to get worried about companies that have refinance risk when rates are higher, and CoreWeave was a little bit of the poster child,” John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector and corporate credit at Janus Henderson, whose firm owns CoreWeave bonds due in 2031, told the broadcaster. “They need the debt markets in order to grow, in some form or fashion.” That CoreWeave came close to bouncing back at all comes down at least in part to Ark Investment Management chief Cathie Wood opting to buy about $12 million of shares in the company amid the market plunge last week, a play for which The Street notes she’s known. Notably, Oracle, which was previously dubbed the “canary in the coal mine” for concern over AI debt, closed just 1% higher before plunging in after-market trading.
Microsoft, meanwhile, pulled out a major data center deal in the United Kingdom to anchor Nscale Global Holdings’ debut facility in the country, located in Loughton on the outskirts of London. But The Wall Street Journal reported that power supply issues ultimately caused Microsoft to back out of the 50-megawatt project, highlighting how hyperscalers can throw a major data center complex into disarray even at a later stage in the development. Nscale’s upcoming $35 billion stock market debut rests, as The Information noted, on its ability to build data centers.
Amazon is backing a deal for another power plant built with X-energy’s next-generation reactors. On Monday, the high temperature gas-cooled reactor startup, in which Amazon took an equity stake two years ago, signed a joint development agreement with American Electric Power to evaluate a potential 960-megawatt project at a former coal site in Sullivan County, Indiana. In a press release, AEP CEO Bill Fehrman said Amazon’s support provided “all necessary capital protections and financial safeguards that we have said are essential for any potential nuclear project to move forward.” That’s a notable departure from the line many utilities executives share in private, which is that — absent some kind of federal cost overrun insurance — building new reactors will prove too difficult a sell to shareholders. It’s part of a string of nuclear deals for Indiana, which currently has no operating atomic power reactors in its borders. On Monday evening, AtkinsRealis, the developer behind Canada’s signature CANDU reactor technology that can run on raw uranium, announced a memorandum of understanding to build up to 6 gigawatts of the pressurized heavy water reactors in Indiana. The state and the utility Hoosier Energy are the counterparties to the agreement.
In Arkansas, meanwhile, Google unveiled a new “enhanced partnership” with utility giant Entergy to power the tech giant’s West Memphis campus. As part of the agreement, Google pledged to support solar, battery, and transmission investments in Arkansas that the companies said would deliver “at least $500 million in new savings for all customers.”
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright called out New York Governor Kathy Hochul for holding up a natural gas pipeline he said would lower heating prices for residents in the Northeast as early as winter of 2028. During an appearance Monday on the Fox Business Network, Wright touted his agency’s decision last week to award Williams Companies $42 million through the wartime Defense Production Act to speed up construction of the Constitution Pipeline. “We wanted to get this in by winter of 2027 but delays and still opposition from energy-subtraction Democrats has unfortunately slowed the effort,” Wright said. “The delay right now is the governor here in New York State. We’ve been talking with her. We hope she’ll go along with this. Maybe after the election, I think she will.” The governors of all six New England states, he said, “are all on board with it.”
In a statement to me, Hochul spokesperson Ken Lovett called the announcement “nothing more than a political ploy to divert attention from Trump’s tariffs and his reckless war in Iran that have not only failed to bring down prices as the president promised, but have dramatically driven up home energy costs and gas prices at the pump.” He added that, “while the president continues to obsess over blocking renewable energy projects in order to focus on gas, oil, and even coal, Governor Hochul is focused on driving an all-of-the-above energy strategy designed to keep the lights on and costs down for New Yorkers.”
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Albertans are the richest Canadians on average, thanks to the province’s oil and gas industry. They’re also — after the Quebecois, of course — among the Canadians with the strongest claim to a distinct identity from the national Anglo norm, often drawing comparisons to Texans within the U.S. Monday offered the biggest test yet of just how differently Alberta sees itself. Turns out whatever regional resentments Albertans may have against Ottawa after a decade of Liberal Party rule that frequently sought to restrict the oil and gas sector hasn’t been enough to merit secession. Voters overwhelmingly rejected a nonbinding referendum calling for a real vote on whether to split away from Canada and establish an independent Alberta. At least part of the reason may be that Prime Minister Mark Carney has put a new focus on beefing up Canada’s domestic energy industries in a bid to increase exports and make the country less reliant on an increasingly aggressive U.S. That includes building new pipelines. But a new analysis by Reuters warns that a successful infrastructure buildout won’t lead to another jobs boom in oil. Much of the growth in oil sands output, instead, “is likely to come from automation and efficiency gains rather than large-scale hiring,” the newswire reported, citing industry forecasts and nearly a dozen interviews with company officials, workers, politicians, and academics. Carney admitted as much when asked by the reporter during a visit to Alberta’s Fort McMurray this month: “I wouldn't use the term ‘boom.’ I would use ‘sustained growth.’”
Europe, meanwhile, is trying to keep its own populist blowback to rising prices contained. Right as violent protests over cost of living spread from France to Italy, the Italian government has struck a deal with the European Commission that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expects to slash household energy bills ahead of next year’s elections. Under the agreement, according to the Financial Times, Italy will be allowed to compensate gas-fired generators to keep wholesale electricity prices from rising above €59 per megawatt-hour, roughly $66. The European Union’s market rules require that the last and most expensive source of electricity tapped to meet demand serves as the wholesale price. But the EU’s executive chamber allowed for Italy to ease its rules after prices surged 45% higher than in nuclear-powered France and renewables-rich Spain last month.
China’s exports of solar panels fell 6.4% last month compared to the same period last year, according to Reuters. That marks the fifth straight year-on-year decline in 2026. It’s a sign that China is cracking down on its glut in solar manufacturing. But Beijing isn’t looking to lose its edge over the fastest growing electricity source in the world. Last week, Bloomberg reported that China had added 12 pieces of solar-related manufacturing equipment to its list of items restricted from export. That could make it much more difficult for U.S. manufacturers comply to stand up factories given the Trump administration’s 232 import restrictions on Chinese solar equipment, which take effect later this year. The results of the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation into polysilicon, which my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I covered here, are meant to be the Trump administration’s lifeline to solar manufacturers who lost a key incentive when federal tax credits expired, ending a bonus program for developers that use domestically-made panels.
One area where China has appeared to be gaining an edge — green hydrogen production — may still remain a competitive industry for Western manufacturers. Chinese electrolyzers, the machines needed to separate the H from H2O with electricity, cost less than half of those made outside the country, according to data from the International Energy Agency. But trade levies erase much of that advantage, ultimately reducing capital expenditures by only 8% for European projects using Chinese equipment, Hydrogen Insight reported.
Call it mine-to-battery manufacturing. As demand for batteries booked, Ivanhoe Electric had planned to differentiate itself by taking a fully integrated, farm-to-table approach, owning and operating its own copper mine, refining the metal, and ultimately turning that copper into cathodes for batteries all at its same site in Arizona. Now, however, there’s an even bigger sector demanding copper: Data centers. New data center projects are driving so much demand for copper that the company is considering selling its copper to buyers other than itself, Bloomberg reported.
The company simplifies the process of getting consistent, apples-to-apples bids.
With commercial electricity prices steadily climbing, many businesses and real estate owners are increasingly eager to generate and store their own power onsite, cutting their bills and making costs more predictable. But figuring out whether solar and storage can actually pencil out — and under what conditions — can be a nightmare. Ask a handful of developers for a quote and you might get a rooftop solar array from one, a ground-mounted solar and battery system from another, and a gas turbine from a third, each with its own size, price, and financing terms.
That leaves buyers comparing apples to oranges. And for businesses evaluating a portfolio of potential projects, the process gets even messier. “These are very local-centric systems. Different interconnection requirements, different permits, different suppliers,” Gareth Evans, CEO of the onsite energy planning and procurement startup Veckta, told me. “There are hundreds of solar developers in every state.” The hard part, he added, is “knowing what supplier to go with, how to ask them the right questions in the right language, in the right format, so that you’re getting consistent bids back that you can compare and contrast.”
That’s the tension San Diego-based Veckta has built its business around. And on Tuesday, the startup announced an oversubscribed $11 million Series A to scale its solution. Origin Ventures led the round, with participation from others including the climate-focused investor VoLo Earth Ventures, which led Veckta’s $3.3 million pre-seed round in 2022.
The company starts with a single input: a property address. Veckta’s software analyzes over 5,000 data points, including utility rates, grid emissions, outage risk, local equipment and construction costs, and available incentives to assess — in under a minute — whether an onsite energy project makes financial sense. That helps buyers define their needs, from system size and installation type to contract terms, and ensures that potential suppliers are bidding on the same requirements. The result is a set of comparable proposals, without the upfront cost of hiring a consultant or supply chain expert.
Veckta’s platform includes more than 3,000 vetted suppliers. As bids come in, the startup automatically compares them based on factors including the supplier’s track record, warranties, equipment offerings, compliance with foreign entity of concern requirements, and ability to leverage federal and local incentives. From there, Veckta makes its recommendations. “Supplier A is your best option if you want U.S.-made equipment with the longest warranty, best guarantee, and they’ve done these projects before,” Evans explained, by way of example. “Supplier B is disqualified because they’ve never done a project in your state.”
Out of the roughly 34,000 customer sites Veckta has analyzed, Evans said 37% would see positive returns today by installing solar panels, battery storage systems, or both. That translates to $3.1 billion in potential project value, concentrated largely in markets with high electricity rates such as the Northeast and California, and among businesses facing steep peak-demand charges. But as utility rates continue to rise and installation costs fall, he expects onsite power to become cost-competitive with the grid at “almost 100%” of sites within five years. The startup estimates that would unlock a whopping $12 billion in potential project value.
Veckta wouldn’t capture all that itself, of course. Rather, it generates revenue in two ways: buyers pay an upfront platform fee, and the winning supplier pays a success fee once a contract is signed. Evans told me the startup has been net profitable for the past year, though he would not share specifics. So far in 2026, customers have signed contracts for onsite energy projects at 128 sites. These typically range from 250 kilowatts for businesses like car dealerships and retail stores to 10 megawatts or more for manufacturing facilities, warehouses, or cold storage facilities. “That ranges from Fortune 500s right down to your individual business owner,” Evans told me.
With this latest raise, Veckta plans to expand its supplier network and grow its sales, marketing, and customer support teams. It also wants to help customers capture additional revenue streams from their onsite energy systems, such as by connecting them with demand-response programs, using batteries to provide grid services like frequency regulation, and selling renewable energy credits.
Named customers include rental car company Enterprise Mobility, real estate investment trust Regency Centers, and auto dealership group Lithia & Driveway. About 80% of the projects the platform facilitates today involve rooftop solar paired with batteries, but the company has begun to branch out.
“We’ve done waste-heat-to-energy, we’ve done EV chargers, done backup generators, and then the latest is, we’ve just finished our first pilot on roof replacements,” Evans told me. “We are firm believers that for any complex purchase that is a non-commodity that you can’t just buy off the shelf, we are best placed to help our customers competitively source those deals.”
The Iran war has been a gift to the country’s vehicle, solar, and battery business.
This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday evening digest written by our executive editor.
Happy Monday and welcome back. For months now, we’ve been talking about how the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran has been a boon for electric vehicles, clean energy, and (unfortunately) coal.
But today we got data that confirms: This clean energy export boom is not just a side story. It is one of the brighter spots in the overall Chinese economy, which remains the world’s second largest.
According to economic data released on Monday, China grew 4.5% during the summer quarter as compared to the quarter from a year earlier. That means the country will likely hit its growth target this year, albeit on the low end.
The country’s economic expansion wasn’t driven by domestic consumption, however. Consumer confidence remains low, and residential investment has yet to return after the property crash earlier this decade.
Instead, booming exports are now driving China’s economy. Exports were more than 36% higher in September than a year earlier, driven by chips, ships, electric vehicles, and solar panels and batteries. The country will likely record its biggest trade surplus ever this year.
Some of those categories are clearly flourishing thanks to the global AI boom — think chips and even batteries. But the preponderance of vehicle exports suggests surging oil prices aren’t hurting. Sales of ‘new energy vehicles,’ a category that includes 100% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, were up more than 13% on a year-over-year basis in September, according to the Chinese car manufacturer’s trade group. But exports of these vehicles are booming. Battery electric vehicles were up 130% last month compared to the same period in 2025, and plug-in hybrid exports were up more than 200%.
It’s interesting to consider how much the Chinese and U.S. economy are mirroring each other at this moment. Americans are dealing with a remarkable investment boom, which is buoying the labor market and stubbornly maintaining high inflationary pressure. China is struggling with deflation, and exports are its quickest path to growth. (Consumer sentiment in both countries, interestingly, seems to be in the doldrums, even though American consumers appear to be in much better shape.)
When thinking about what artificial intelligence could do for the United States over the next decade, some subject-matter prognosticators (and even some Anthropic employees) imagine a world of 4%, 5%, or even 7% GDP growth. Such a growth rate is difficult even to envision in the modern era, of course, and it seems like it could propel the U.S. economy to staggering prosperity.
I know better than to make a prediction about where we’re headed. But amateur economic commentators should keep China in mind, too: a country that dominates along many technological axes, but where the standard economic math of supply, demand, and consumer sentiment still holds. Except if the United States economy were to stumble, no exterior source of demand will come to our rescue.