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The R2 reveals — in its smallest details — the automaker’s aggressive new focus on keeping costs low.
Let’s get the big news out of the way: The new Rivian cars are very cool. The airy R2 is a two-row SUV that, if released today, would rival anything else on the American electric vehicle market; Rivian claims that its entry level trim will cost $45,000 and that it will get more than 300 miles of range. After including the Inflation Reduction Act’s incentives, that means the starting price for this car — for many Americans — will be $37,500.
Even more exciting are the company’s R3 and performance-oriented R3X, a hot-hatchback-slash-crossover concept that will be even cheaper than the R2 and has “the soul of a rally car,” according to Rivian’s lead designer Jeff Hammoud. It looks at once like a Volkswagen Golf GTI, an AMC Gremlin, and — could it be? — a Yugo. I love it.
It was a good day for Rivian after a disappointing year. Many things about its business are still working well. The brand evokes a fusion of Apple’s and Patagonia’s sensibilities, although it’s historically been priced more like Porsche, and it has become a favorite of high-earning Millennial dads. I saw more Apple Watch Ultras on Thursday than I have ever seen in one place before. RJ Scaringe, Rivian’s chief executive officer, was wearing one of them.
But Thursday, more importantly, signaled a new phase in Rivian’s life. After years of aggressive spending, the Irvine, California-based company is cutting costs and trying to find a financially sustainable — and profitable — footing. It’s one more sign that in the global electric vehicle sector, an industry that will be central to the fight against climate change, the startup phase has definitively ended.
This shift to profitability can be seen in virtually every aspect of Rivian’s business right now — and even in the design of the R2 itself.
Courtesy of Rivian.
If Rivian can make it, its prospects are good. It is one of a handful of American electric-vehicle makers that has a shot at competing with Tesla and surviving for the long term. But that will require it to get through the next few years and cross the “EV valley of death.” This is the period after a company has fully ramped up production and has very high costs, but before its revenue has grown to compensate. Tesla made it across this valley in 2021 and 2022; now Rivian is making its own attempt. This was the deeper message of Thursday’s event: Now is Rivian’s make-or-break moment, and the company’s leadership knows it.
To get across the valley of death, Rivian must become obsessive to the point of maniacal about its costs. The company’s survival is going to be an exceptionally close thing, and every dollar will matter. That’s why possibly the event’s most important news came right at the end, when Scaringe disclosed, almost as an aside, that Rivian is indefinitely delaying work on its new Georgia factory. That will save it about $2.25 billion, a significant sum for a company that burned roughly twice that amount last year. Rivian’s shares leapt 13% on the news.
“Every single thing we do within the business is focused on driving costs on this,” Scaringe told CNBC on Thursday. Other Rivian executives kept the message going: Walking through the R2’s design with reporters, Jeff Hammoud, Rivian’s design chief, mentioned the company’s efforts to cut costs at least six times. (Form follows function, indeed.)
The team kept asking itself “how can we simplify things — and not only simplify things from a design perspective, but also from a cost perspective,” he said, adding that “we’re not trying to make this thing feel or look cheap — that’s not what we do.”
He’s right: The R2 does not look cheap (as for feel, I wasn’t allowed to touch it), but some of the R1 series’s more premium touches are gone. Rivian has moved the R2’s speakers out of the driver and passenger doors and put them in the center console, a cost-saving measure that Hammoud suggested would give people more space for their water bottles. One of the panels in the car’s rear is made of mold-injected plastic, not sheet metal, which Hammoud said will save money and make the car easier to repair after a fender bender.
Then there are changes most drivers will never notice. The R2’s dashboard panels have a wood-like finish, and Hammoud wanted us to know that they are made of actual wood. And unlike other cars, which use wood purely as a decorative element — I assumed he was talking about the BMW i3 here — the R2’s wood is structurally integral to the dashboard. In other words, they look good and save money on underlying structural material. “With our vehicles and the R2, [the wood] literally holds the screen, it creates the shape for the vents,” Hammoud said. “If you were to take it out, literally the panel would fall apart.”
Courtesy of Rivian.
You can see, too, how other business needs are shaping how the vehicle looks and works — and even what kind of vehicle it is in the first place. Rivian only sells vehicles in the United States and Canada now, but wants and needs to expand into global markets in the coming years. It might be most famous for its pickup trucks, and yet Rivian didn’t announce a next-generation pickup on Thursday. Hammoud told me that that’s partly because Rivian is thinking about what will work well abroad, and mass pickup truck ownership remains a profoundly American phenomenon.
The charging port on the new Rivian models is on the rear passenger side, a move that confused many Americans who have come to prefer the charging port on the drivers’ side. (That’s where Tesla and the Rivian R1 put it, and the location is seen as better for home charging.) But think about it, Hammoud said. Many people in left-hand-drive countries charge their vehicles on the street, and a passenger-side setup — which becomes a driver’s side setup — makes more sense for them. The new setup also puts the charger closer to the battery, reducing the amount of high-voltage wires needed in the car. That cuts the car’s weight and — ding ding ding — lowers its cost. (Tesla puts its charger in the car’s rear for the same reason.)
The company hasn’t always been like this. During the first decade of its existence, interest rates sat nearly at zero, and Rivian could spend with abandon. It planned for its sprawling Georgia factory and could plan to sell more expensive cars to consumers who had access to cheap credit to buy them. The R2 carries forward the R1 tradition of having a flashlight in the drivers’ side door, but it lacks the hidey holes and air suspension of its predecessor. “With the R1, it was our premium flagship. We got to say yes to a lot of things,” Hammoud said. With R2, the question was “what do we have to say no to.”
Courtesy of Rivian.
This spring, Rivian will close down its Normal, Illinois, factory for a series of process upgrades. These will speed up its assembly lines and allow it to make its existing vehicles, the R1T and R1S, faster, with fewer internal computers and less wasted material; Rivian expects these improvements to carry it most of the way to profitability.
Even if it achieves its goal of turning a technical profit by the fall, it will still have a long way to go to become an actually sustainable business — and it will have to survive another year with no new products. The R2 is not due to go on sale until the first half of 2026, and the R3, which is built on the same platform as the R2, won’t start deliveries until “after the R2.” (No price or firm release date for the R3 has been announced.) The American EV market will change significantly by then. By the end of this year, some 50 different EV models in the U.S. will get more than 300 miles of range. Hyundai, Kia, Ford, and GM are all capable of bringing new cars to market during that interval that could smoke the R2 or R3, in part because they will be benchmarked off of them. The R2 and especially R3 seem like perfect cars for today’s market — and perfect cars for Rivian’s cash-saving situation. Whether they’ll be as perfect two years from now is anyone’s guess.
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On the looming climate summit, clean energy stocks, and Hurricane Rafael
Current conditions: A winter storm could bring up to 4 feet of snow to parts of Colorado and New Mexico • At least 89 people are still missing from extreme flooding in Spain • The Mountain Fire in Southern California has consumed 14,000 acres and is zero percent contained.
The world is still reeling from the results of this week’s U.S. presidential election, and everyone is trying to get some idea of what a second Trump term means for policy – both at home and abroad. Perhaps most immediately, Trump’s election is “set to cast a pall over the UN COP29 summit next week,” said the Financial Times. Already many world leaders and business executives have said they will not attend the climate talks in Azerbaijan, where countries will aim to set a new goal for climate finance. “The U.S., as the world’s richest country and key shareholder in international financial institutions, is viewed as crucial to that goal,” the FT added.
Trump has called climate change a hoax, vowed to once again remove the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and promised to stop U.S. climate finance contributions. He has also promised to “drill, baby, drill.” Yesterday President Biden put new environmental limitations on an oil-and-gas lease sale in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The lease sale was originally required by law in 2017 by Trump himself, and Biden is trying to “narrow” the lease sale without breaking that law, according to The Washington Post. “The election results have made the threat to America's Arctic clear,” Kristen Miller, executive director of Alaska Wilderness League, toldReuters. “The fight to save the Arctic Refuge is back, and we are ready for the next four years.”
Another early effect of the decisive election result is that clean energy stocks are down. The iShares Global Clean Energy exchange traded fund, whose biggest holdings are the solar panel company First Solar and the Spanish utility and renewables developer Iberdola, is down about 6%. The iShares U.S. Energy ETF, meanwhile, whose largest holdings are Exxon and Chevron, is up over 3%. Some specific publicly traded clean energy stocks have sunk, especially residential solar companies like Sunrun, which is down about 30% compared to Tuesday. “That renewables companies are falling more than fossil energy companies are rising, however, indicates that the market is not expecting a Trump White House to do much to improve oil and gas profitability or production, which has actually increased in the Biden years thanks to the spikes in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continued exploitation of America’s oil and gas resources through hydraulic fracturing,” wrote Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin.
Hurricane Rafael swept through Cuba yesterday as a Category 3 storm, knocking out the power grid and leaving 10 million people without electricity. Widespread flooding is reported. The island was still recovering from last month’s Hurricane Oscar, which left at least six people dead. The electrical grid – run by oil-fired power plants – has collapsed several times over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said yesterday that about 17% of crude oil production and 7% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down because of Rafael.
It is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. In October, the global average surface air temperature was about 60 degrees Fahrenheit, or nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than pre-industrial averages for that month. This year is also on track to be the first entire calendar year in which temperatures are more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference,” said Copernicus deputy director Dr. Samantha Burgess.
C3S
The world is falling short of its goal to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, the International Energy Agency said in its new Energy Efficiency 2024 report. Global primary energy intensity – which the IEA explained is a measure of efficiency – will improve by 1% this year, the same as last year. It needs to be increasing by 4% by the end of the decade to meet a goal set at last year’s COP. “Boosting energy efficiency is about getting more from everyday technologies and industrial processes for the same amount of energy input, and means more jobs, healthier cities and a range of other benefits,” the IEA said. “Improving the efficiency of buildings and vehicles, as well as in other areas, is central to clean energy transitions, since it simultaneously improves energy security, lowers energy bills for consumers and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.” The group called for more government action as well as investment in energy efficient technologies.
Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell by 30.6% in the 12 months leading up to July, compared to a year earlier. It is now at the lowest levels since 2015.
State-level policies and “unstoppable” momentum for clean energy.
As the realities of Trump’s return to office and the likelihood of a Republican trifecta in Washington began to set in on Wednesday morning, climate and clean energy advocates mostly did not sugarcoat the result or look for a silver lining. But in press releases and interviews, reactions to the news coalesced around two key ways to think about what happens next.
Like last time Trump was elected, the onus will now fall on state and local leaders to make progress on climate change in spite of — and likely in direct conflict with — shifting federal priorities. Working to their advantage, though, much more so than last time, is global political and economic momentum behind the growth of clean energy.
“No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable,” former White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy said in a statement.
“This is a dark day, but despite this election result, momentum is on our side,” Sierra Club Executive Director Ben Jealous wrote. “The transition away from dirty fossil fuels to affordable clean energy is already underway.”
“States are the critical last line of defense on climate,” said Caroline Spears, the executive director of Climate Cabinet, a group that campaigns for local climate leaders, during a press call on Wednesday. “I used to work in the solar industry under the Trump administration. We still built solar and it was on the back of great state policy.”
Reached by phone on Wednesday, the climate policy strategist Sam Ricketts offered a blunt assessment of where things stand. “First things first, this outcome sucks,” he said. He worried aloud about what another four years of Trump would mean for his kids and the planet they inherit. But Ricketts has also been here before. During Trump’s first term, he worked for the “climate governor,” Washington’s Jay Inslee, and helped further state and local climate policy around the country for the Democratic Governors Association. “For me, it is a familiar song,” he said.
Ricketts believes the transition to clean energy has become inevitable. But he offered other reasons states may be in a better position to make progress over the next four years than they were last time. There are now 23 states with Democratic governors and at least 15 with Democratic trifectas — compare that to 2017, when there were just 16 Democratic governors and seven trifectas. Additionally, Democrats won key seats in the state houses of Wisconsin and North Carolina that will break up previous Republican supermajorities and give the Democratic governors in those states more opportunity to make progress.
Spears also highlighted these victories during the Climate Cabinet press call, adding that they help illustrate that the election was not a referendum on climate policy. “We have examples of candidates who ran forward on climate, they ran forward on clean energy, and they still won last night in some tough toss-up districts,” she said.
Ricketts also pointed to signs that climate policy itself is popular. In Washington, a ballot measure that would have repealed the state’s emissions cap-and-invest policy failed. “The vote returns aren’t all in, but that initiative has been obliterated at the ballot box by voters in Washington State who want to continue that state’s climate progress,” he said.
But the enduring popularity of climate policy in Democratic states is not a given. Though the measure to overturn Washington’s cap-and-invest law was defeated, another measure that would revoke the state’s nation-leading policies to regulate the use of natural gas in buildings hangs in the balance. If it passes, it will not only undo existing policies but also hamstring state and local policymakers from discouraging natural gas in the future. In Berkeley, California, the birthplace of the movement to ban gas in buildings, a last-ditch effort to preserve that policy through a tax on natural gas was rejected by voters.
Meanwhile, two counties in Oregon overwhelmingly voted in favor of a nonbinding ballot measure opposing offshore wind development. And while 2024 brought many examples of climate policy progress at the state level, there were also some signs of states pulling back due to concerns about cost, exemplified by New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s major reversal on congestion pricing in New York City.
The oft-repeated hypothesis that Republican governors and legislators might defend President Biden’s climate policies because of the investments flowing to red states is also about to be put to the test. “I think that's going to be a huge issue and question,” Barry Rabe, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan, told me. “You know, not only can Democrats close ranks to oppose any changes, but is there any kind of cross-party Republican base of support?”
Josh Freed, the senior vice president for the climate and clean energy program at Third Way, warned that the climate community has a lot of work to do to build more public support for clean energy. He pointed to the rise of right-wing populism around the world, driven in part by the perception that the transition away from fossil fuels is hurting real people at the expense of corporate and political interests.
“We’ve seen, in many places, a backlash against adopting electric vehicles,” he told me. “We’ve seen, at the local county level, opposition to siting of renewables. People perceive a push for eliminating natural gas from cooking or from home heating as an infringement on their choice and as something that’s going to raise costs, and we have to take that seriously.”
One place Freed sees potential for continued progress is in corporate action. A lot of the momentum on clean energy is coming from the private sector, he said, naming companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google that have invested considerable funds in decarbonization. He doesn’t see that changing.
A counterpoint, raised by Rabe, is those companies’ contribution to increasing demand for electricity — which has simultaneously raised interest in financing clean energy projects and expanding natural gas plants.
As I was wrapping up my call with Ricketts, he acknowledged that state and local action was no substitute for federal leadership in tackling climate change. But he also emphasized that these are the levers we have right now. Before signing off, he paraphrased something the writer Rebecca Solnit posted on social media in the wee hours of the morning after the electoral college was called. It’s a motto that I imagine will become something of a rallying cry for the climate movement over the next four years. “We can’t save everything, but we can save some things, and those things are worth saving,” Ricketts said.
Rob and Jesse talk about what comes next in the shift to clean energy.
Last night, Donald Trump secured a second term in the White House. He campaigned on an aggressively pro-fossil -fuel agenda, promising to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s landmark 2022 climate law, and roll back Environmental Protection Agency rules governing power plant and car and truck pollution.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob pick through the results of the election and try to figure out where climate advocates go from here. What will Trump 2.0 mean for the federal government’s climate policy? Did climate policies notch any wins at the state level on Tuesday night? And where should decarbonization advocates focus their energy in the months and years to come? Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: You know the real question, I guess — and I just, I don’t have a ton of optimism here — is if there can be some kind of bipartisan support for the idea that changing the way we permit transmission lines is good for economic growth. It’s good for resilience. It’s good for meeting demand from data centers and factories and other things that we need going forward. Whether that case can be made in a different, entirely different political context is to be seen, but it certainly will not move forward in the same context as the [Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024] negotiations.
Robinson Meyer: And I think there’s a broad question here about what the Trump administration looks like in terms of its energy agenda. We know the environmental agenda will be highly deregulatory and interested in recarbonizing the economy, so to speak, or at least slowing down decarbonization — very oil- and gas-friendly.
I think on the energy agenda, we can expect oil and gas friendliness as well, obviously. But I do think, in terms of who will be appointed to lead or nominated to lead the Department of Energy, I think there’s a range of whether you would see a nominee who is aggressively focused on only doing things to support oil and gas, or a nominee who takes a more Catholic approach and is interested in all forms of energy development.
And I don’t, I don’t mean to be … I don’t think that’s obvious. I just think that’s like a … you kind of can see threads of that across the Republican Party. You can see some politicians who are interested only, really, in helping fossil fuels. You can see some politicians who are very excited, say, about geothermal, who are excited about shoring up the grid, right? Who are excited about carbon capture.
And I think the question of who winds up taking control of the energy portfolio in a future Trump administration means … One thing that was true of the first Trump administration that I don’t expect to go away this time is that the Trump policymaking process is extremely chaotic, right? He’s surrounded by different actors. There’s a lot of informal delegation. Things happen, and he’s kind of involved in it, but sometimes he’s not involved in it. He likes having this team of rivals who are constantly jockeying for position. In some ways it’s a very imperial-type system, and I think that will continue.
One topic I’ve been paying a lot of attention to, for instance, is nuclear. The first Trump administration said a lot of nice things about nuclear, and they passed some affirmatively supportive policy for the advanced nuclear industry, and they did some nice things for small modular reactors. I think if you look at this administration, it’s actually a little bit more of a mixed bag for nuclear.
RFK, who we know is going to be an important figure in the administration, at least at the beginning, is one of the biggest anti nuclear advocates there is. And his big, crowning achievement, one of his big crowning achievements was helping to shut down Indian Point, the large nuclear reactor in New York state. JD Vance, Vice President-elect JD Vance, has said that shutting down nuclear reactors is one of the dumbest things that we can do and seems to be quite pro, we should be producing more nuclear.
Jenkins: On the other hand, Tucker Carlson was on, uh …
Meyer: … suggested it was demonic, yeah.
Jenkins: Exactly, and no one understands how nuclear technology works or where it came from.
Meyer: And Donald Trump has kind of said both things. It’s just super uncertain and … it’s super uncertain.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.