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Jesse and Rob download with Johns Hopkins professor Jeremy Wallace.

The rollbacks are coming. Donald Trump’s incoming administration is expected to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement, weaken the Environmental Protection Agency’s rules for power plants and tailpipe pollution, and — potentially — rewrite or repeal big swaths of the Inflation Reduction Act. Each of those actions would seem to provide an opening for the world’s No. 1 polluter — China — to assert global leadership and zip ahead in the next generation of clean energy technology.
How will it respond? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse chat with Jeremy Wallace, the A. Doak Barnett Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins University. Wallace, a Heatmap contributor, helps us understand how China is thinking about Trump, the current state of China’s economy, and why China sometimes flexes its climate leadership — but just as often doesn’t. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: While we have no idea what is in Trump’s head, he does have a set of voices around him. To the degree that you can see and briefly summarize those camps, Jeremy, what, what do you … What is he going to be hearing? What are the dominant intellectual threads, or self-interested economic-motivated threads that he’s likely to hear from different parts of his coalition?
Jeremy Wallace: I would say three different camps. There will be as many as different advisors, but I think summarizing it into three different camps is helpful. There’s a Lighthizer camp that … Lightizer comes out of the steel industry, and thinking about domestic steel manufacturing and national security. So that’s a camp, and that’s a tariff, tariff, tariff world. We can China decouple in order to reduce their power.
There’s a Musk camp, who is probably just singular, that is simultaneously extremely kind of right-wing in its orientation, but also runs a multi-trillion-dollar company that is principally Chinese-produced, and Chinese demand — not only, by any means, but is a major portion of that business. And then there is the, there are the Wall Street billionaires that we’re talking about as Treasury Secretary, where there is an interest in continued economic relations and not destroying U.S. credibility to pay its own debts, to make sure that the economy continues to run.
And I think all of those would have very different views about what U.S.-China policy should be. There’s a Pentagon wing, right? There’s all kinds of other voices, as well. But I think from Trump world, I think those are probably the three principal voices that he actually cares about. And I don’t know what the right … I don’t know what the policies will be, other than my guess is that there would be a lot of cycling between those three different views.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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The federal government collects gobsmacking amounts of energy information. A new website makes it easy to access and use.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
Oil prices are surging. The global crude benchmark Brent traded at more than $108 a barrel on news that Saudi Arabia has canceled some oil shipments to Europe.
In the ‘physical’ market, where companies buy and sell actual oil to use and burn, the commodity is now trading at more than $120 a barrel. In the United States, gasoline and diesel prices are spiking nationwide — $7 a gallon diesel could soon be possible. At a gathering of Group of 20 energy ministers in Houston, oil executives said they are running out of tools to blunt future price increases.
Which brings us to the topic of today’s newsletter. Say you wanted to know: How high have gasoline prices gotten in the United States? How expensive is gasoline now compared to President Trump’s first term — or the crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? There are various third-party data sources you could look at to get an up-to-date look — AAA and Gas Buddy come to mind — but neither makes it easy to see historic data. And even if you could access their old data, you’d need to adjust it for inflation, which means picking a good deflator, running a statistical analysis … and at that point, who has the time?
Lucky for you, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, already maintains a long-running data set of the average gasoline price, inflation-adjusted and updated every week. It’s historically been kind of a pain to access, because you had to download the data as a raw spreadsheet and then visualize it yourself. But thanks to a new website, which went live on Monday, you can now draw a quick chart and see: Gasoline is now more expensive than it was at any point during Trump’s first administration in real dollars.

But it’s still well below some of the records that it set in the late 2000s and early 2010s:

These charts are from the excellent new website U.S. Energy Data. It’s a collaboration from the philanthropic organization Arnold Ventures, the think tank Institute for Progress, and the data scientist Hannah Ritchie.
I’m really excited about it. Here’s the deal: The EIA is a federal agency that maintains impressively detailed and up-to-date data on virtually every facet of America’s energy and industrial economy. But that data is often difficult to access or is buried in the agency’s website. And while subject-matter experts are often familiar with the EIA’s statistics and how to use them, it still takes time, dedication, and some expertise to use them well.
The new U.S. Energy Data project gets rid of all of that work. Now, you can browse the EIA’s statistics for power prices, electricity demand, electricity generation, hydrocarbons and biofuels, and power reliability. You can chop up the data on a state-by-state basis, remix it into new charts, and link and export the charts for use elsewhere.
The new project is inspired by Our World in Data, which Ritchie helps edit. That project collates and visualizes data about the biggest questions in global economics, demographics, public health, poverty, energy use, and more — but it doesn’t have any subnational data. That’s one reason why the new U.S. Energy Data platform is so nice to have.
So with the new site, you can see, for instance, whether states with the most electricity demand growth have seen power prices rise or fall:

Or compare real vs. nominal electricity prices in Texas and California:


Or look at how dry natural gas production — which subtracts natural gas liquids like ethane and butane from the production of the fuel gas itself, and is actually “the metric that is most commonly quoted for ’natural gas production’” — has changed over time per state:

You can also look at how the EIA quantifies power grid reliability and compare the states that have the most blackouts overall against the states that see the highest amount of time that an average customer goes without power.
In short, I’m very excited about it, and I suspect that many Heatmap readers will get a kick out of it. Go click around now — and also remember if you’re curious about hyperlocal electricity price data, we may already have you covered at the Heatmap Electricity Price Hub!
The startup and the city announced the contract on Tuesday.
The City of New York announced on Tuesday that it will partner with curbside charging startup it’s electric to expand the city’s PlugNYC electric vehicle charging network from 88 curbside charge points today to around 700 by 2030.
“To put in perspective how important this is,” Tiya Gordon, it’s electric’s co-founder and COO, told me. “London and New York City have similar populations. But London has around 27,000 curbside EV chargers while New York City has just 88 so this is a major opportunity for expansion.”
The $60.2 million contract, which covers both installation and five years of operation, is part of New York’s Green Rides Initiative, which aims to replace all rideshare vehicles on the city’s streets with either zero-emission or wheelchair-accessible alternatives by 2030. The program began in 2021 with a pilot in partnership with electric utility Con Edison and EV charging startup FLO. Phase one of the new agreement will involve replacing those chargers with it’s electric models by early 2027, followed by a second phase that will involve installing 600 additional chargers across the city’s five boroughs — the largest municipal curbside charging buildout in the country to date.
The new charging stations will have four chargers apiece for a total of nearly 150 new stations, are just the first step towards addressing this explosion in demand. Each station will come equipped with Level 2 chargers, which can charge a vehicle to 100% of its battery level within seven hours. The city says it will encourage off-peak or overnight charging through “pricing [focused] on affordability while encouraging reasonable turnover,” such as the pilot program’s time-differentiated pricing structure. Where feasible, the stations will beature docking connections to charge e-bikes.
As of February, approximately 13% of New York City’s rideshare vehicles were electric, but that number is growing as both Uber and Lyft’s aim to electrify their entire U.S. fleets by 2030. According to Gordon, commuting to rapid charging stations throughout the city and waiting for a station to become available while on shift costs drivers 30% of their income. Rapid chargers exacerbate the problem; they slow down significantly once the charge reaches 80% to prevent the EV battery from overheating, forcing drivers to either wait for significantly longer or make more frequent stops to charge.
“They’re losing a lot of their income in driving to the limited number of public fast charging stations in New York City — because there’s just two in Brooklyn, two in Manhattan, and a few at the airports,” Gordon said. “Access to curbside charging solves the majority of their problems as they can charge off-shift with a Level 2 charger on the curbside overnight.”
To enable drivers to charge while not on shift, the city will select locations where a greater concentration of rideshare drivers live, especially in outer boroughs far away from the suburban driveways or paid parking garages that typically house charging stations. Incorporating input from drivers, the Department of Transportation has already selected 10 neighborhoods across the city, including Stapleton in Staten Island and Unionport in the Bronx.
it’s electric itself is headquartered in the Brooklyn Navy Yard and manufactures its sleek, futuristic charging stations in Long Island City, Queens. Gordon first conceived of the company while walking through Brooklyn during the Covid-19 pandemic with her co-founder, Nathan King, commiserating over the struggle to find an affordable, convenient place to charge an EV. As the company grew, Gordon and King chose to keep manufacturing local not only to avoid tariff or supply chain complications, but also to deliver jobs in New York City across the entire value chain of an electric charging station — manufacturing, installation, operations, and maintenance. The company contracts with manufacturer Boyce Technologies, which also supplies the Help Point kiosks in the city’s subway system.
it’s electric’s design eliminates a bottleneck that often delays the construction of EV charging stations: the utility interconnection and permitting process. Instead of tapping into the grid, its chargers taps into the electricity supply in nearby buildings via a shallow conduit just below the sidewalk, leveraging spare electrical capacity. The charging stations meter and pay for their own electricity use, and in exchange for the building’s surplus power, it’s electric shares its revenue with building owners. While the first tranche of charging stations the company launches in New York City will be traditional utility-connected chargers, the NYC Department of Transportation confirmed to me that it may use the capacity-sharing design in future expansions.
Though it’s electric has installed these capacity-sharing chargers in major U.S. cities including Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Detroit, and Washington D.C., the New York City project represents a major step up in scale — the 700 chargers it will deliver for New York City comprise almost half of the 2,000 chargers in its current pipeline. To support these projects and hire additional staff, the company also announced on Tuesday that it has raised a new bridge round of seed funding led by Halogen Ventures, bringing its total funding to $15 million.
Gordon thinks the expansion of EV charging in New York City is significant not just for her company, but for the EV industry on the whole. “It signals to the world that the U.S. is not backing down from electrification and is still moving forward in meaningful ways,” she told me. Next, Gordon is eyeing the global market. “The technology that we have really differentiates us because we can power our chargers from a variety of sources — the utility connection, an adjacent building, or even wooden utility poles overhead. The next announcements from it’s electric will center around our expansion from NYC to other countries.”
On a Russia-Ukraine truce, Dems’ climate shift, and Ambler Road
Current conditions: Temperatures in Laredo, Texas, are soaring past 103 degrees Fahrenheit amid a heat wave scorching the Southern and Central United States • Tropical Storm Norbert is weakening in the Pacific right as another depression is strengthening into Tropical Storm Odalys • South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal is facing severe thunderstorms with winds of up to 50 miles per hour.
President Donald Trump declared a truce Monday morning between Russia and Ukraine over energy infrastructure, claiming that both countries had agreed to stop attacking refineries, pipelines, and power plants going forward despite those facilities representing frequent targets since the war began in 2022. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. leader said record-high diesel prices were “mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine war, not Iran,” suggesting prices would come down now that “Ukraine has agreed to not hit Russian energy targets” and “Russia has agreed to do likewise.” Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed the pact, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark set out of Europe, briefly surpassed $109 per barrel before coming back down to $106 by the time the market closed Monday. West Texas Intermediate, out of the U.S., hit about $102, while Murban crude from the United Arab Emirates shot up 10% to $131 per barrel. The latest surge came after Saudi Arabia halted shipments via its East-West Pipeline, the main conduit through which the kingdom has exported oil since the Strait of Hormuz’s closure stopped tankers from leaving the Persian Gulf.
The average fuel surcharge for grain shipments on U.S. railways more than doubled over the past year, in the latest sign of how soaring energy prices will spur inflation of food costs. The surcharge skyrocketed 153% to 48 cents per rail car-mile by the second week of September, according to a Reuters analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The surcharges accounted for 11% of the total rail transportation costs for shipping corn and soybeans, compared to 5% a year ago. Railroads collected about $3 billion in fuel surcharges in the second quarter of this year, covering 90% of diesel costs. The situation highlights why now is “the worst time for diesel to get expensive,” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote last month, since harvest season is around the corner and most farming equipment runs on the fuel.
House Democrats are out with their first new climate agenda since the Green New Deal’s glory days of 2020. This time, however, it’s more of what the top Democrat behind the proposal called “a workable plan for long term economic and job growth” than an emissions-cutting blitz. My colleague Emily Pontecorvo has a detailed breakdown of what’s in it, but here are the five big takeaways:
“We’re not introducing a bill after this,” Representative Kathy Castor, the Florida Democrat who oversaw the project to draft the agenda, told Emily. “We’re providing it to policymakers in Washington for them to build the bipartisan support you need to get something across the finish line. The Trump administration is going to be there for two more years. What can we get done now that would have bipartisan support?”
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The U.S. needs $110 billion to build 45 gigawatts of new power generation through 2030 to meet the surging demand from data centers, according to a Moody’s Ratings analysis. More than 30 gigawatts of that supply is slated to come from natural gas-fired plants, with solar and storage making up much of the rest and nuclear restarts accounting for less than 5%, Bloomberg reported. That all sounds like a lot. But consider that the U.S. started this year on track to add 86 gigawatts of new generation, much of which it from solar and storage, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In other words, we deployed nearly twice as much new generation in the past year as we would need for data centers through the end of this decade.
The nation’s largest operator of nuclear and geothermal power plants, Constellation Energy, certainly sees gas as the likelier near-term source of power generation in New England. On Monday, Utility Dive reported that the utility giant plans to buy the 609-megawatt Rhode Island State Energy Center from Shell Energy for $715 million. It’s easy to see why gas looks like a safe bet. Three Massachusetts utilities are now suing Hydro-Quebec, the state-owned utility in Canada’s French-speaking province, over a shortfall in deliveries during particularly hot days this summer — while Hydro-Quebec is, in turn, suing for payments it says the American power companies owe, according to Canary Media. That electricity drama is unfolding as New Englanders prepare to “pay through the nose to stay warm this winter” as the price of heating fuel soars, Matthew wrote last week.

Almost exactly a year ago, Trump issued an executive order approving the long-stalled federal project to build a road through the Alaskan wilderness to support production of minerals from the remote Ambler Mining District. Now the U.S. government is taking a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, the 50% co-owner of a joint venture with the Australian miner South32 focused on extracting copper, zinc, and other metals from the site. As part of the deal, the company said in a press release, the Department of Defense “committed to work in good faith to help facilitate financing required for construction of the proposed 211-mile, industrial-use-only Ambler Road.”
The Pentagon also inked a $450 million deal with The Elmet Group, an integrated miner and processor, with $150 million earmarked for Toronto-based Blue Moon Metals’ tungsten mine in Nevada, Mining.com reported.
There’s still an open debate about how much of the nuclear supply chain Saudi Arabia would be allowed to control under the kingdom’s coveted deal with the Trump administration. Whether the Saudis should enrich — or, even more worrying from a nonproliferation standpoint, recycle — nuclear fuel will generate heated discussion in the years to come. But it looks increasingly likely that the oil-rich nation will mine at least some of its own uranium. “Exploration and geological studies at the Jabal Sayid project in Madinah have revealed estimated resources of around 110 million tonnes of ore with high concentrations of rare earth minerals, especially the heavy elements, alongside promising concentrations of uranium,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the kingdom’s energy minister, told Arab News.