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In just the past few years, Chinese EV-maker BYD has become the most important car company most Americans have still never heard of. It is China’s biggest private employer, the world’s third most valuable automaker (after Tesla and Toyota), and it’s capable of producing more than 5 million cars a year. It’s also just one of dozens of innovative new Chinese auto companies that are set to transform the global mobility market — regardless of what happens with Trump’s tariffs.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob talk with Michael Dunne, the founder of Dunne Insights and a longtime observer of the Chinese automotive sector. Dunne was president of GM Indonesia from 2013 and 2015, and was once managing director of JD Power and Associates’ China division. We talk about the deep history of BYD, the five non-BYD Chinese car companies you should know, and how Western automakers could (with difficulty and a lot of policy help) eventually catch up.
Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: Is the answer tariffs? I’ll put that out there. I mean, that has been part of the answer for Europe — and in a maybe a bit more targeted way, to some degree, even for the Biden administration — but now, of course, for the Trump administration, is the central feature of competitiveness policy. Will that work? Or what are the downsides or pros and cons there?
Michael Dunne: This may sound counterintuitive and maybe even un-American, but yes, I do believe we need tariffs for the short term to buy ourselves some time. But that’s not the end of the story. We also have to get our act together in regards to innovation investment, scaling at home. So that’s the harder part. Tariffs are almost easier now.
One other thing that is worth mentioning, for sure: When I lived in China, started there in 1990. When I got there, I went to a plant called Beijing Jeep, China’s first joint venture, met the plant manager. I said, Hey, what are you doing here? Yeah, we’re importing parts from the Ohio Jeep Cherokee plant we’re putting them together here in China, and we’re distributing.
Ooh, gosh. Well, when are you going to have your own car? That’ll be about 10 years from now, he said. So that’s kind of where we are — we’re like 10 years behind them in electrics. They were 10 years behind us. So I said, How do you feel about the fact that you’re importing these parts from the U.S. and you won’t be ready for 10 more years? And he said, well, it doesn’t feel good at all, but we’ll get there.
Then shortly after that meeting, the Chinese government came out and said, how are we gonna get there? Number one, we have 100% tariffs on imports. We don’t want imports. If you want to sell into our market, you must manufacture here and you must form joint ventures. And the Chinese partner must have 50% of that joint venture. Those are some serious terms of engagement.
And so people who say, oh, tariffs are for losers, and they don’t work. Actually, if you look around at China, at Japan, at Korea, imports as a share of their markets are all under 10%. So hang on. Did we not get the memo here in America?
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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The tension between the two GOP energy philosophies — one admitting renewables, the other firmly rejecting — could tank a permitting reform deal.
The fate of a House GOP permitting deal stands on a knife’s edge.
During a dramatic vote on the House floor Tuesday, far-right Republicans and opponents of the offshore wind industry joined with Democrats in a nearly-successful attempt to defeat a procedural vote on the SPEED Act, a bill to streamline implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act.
Speaking with reporters off the House floor, GOP lawmakers said that the bill — which has the backing of both the oil and gas sector and some large trade groups that represent renewables companies — faced opposition from a handful of Republicans over language that would block the federal government from rescinding previously-issued permits for energy projects. The tactic is one Trump has used repeatedly to stymie offshore wind projects. Republican hardliners feared that a future version of the deal would take that language further, restricting the president’s power to stall solar and wind permit applications through extralegal bureaucratic delays.
The vote to consider SPEED ultimately passed with a margin of 215 to 209 votes, with two Republicans — Representatives Anna Paulina Luna and Christopher Smith — voting no. Though the bill is alive for now, the outcome casts a pall over the prospects for any permitting deal this Congress because, as Heatmap’s reporting has made clear, there is little shot of a grand deal on NEPA reform without exactly the sort of executive power restrictions Republican objectors feared.
That the bill nearly came up short also illustrates a shift in the GOP’s thinking on energy policy that has gone largely unnoticed. Vestiges of the party remain committed to the philosophy of “all of the above,” but the new generation of lawmakers is more likely to be anti-renewables at all costs. Combined with today’s hyper-partisan environment and narrow majorities in both chambers, that tension makes legislating on energy almost impossible.
Republicans used to approach energy policy in a laissez faire, let-a-thousand-flowers bloom fashion. This fuel-type agnosticism characterized Republicans’ approach to energy policy under the first Trump administration, as well as during the Biden era. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy repeated the “all of the above” mantra to nudge his party closer to anything resembling a climate policy, and subscribed to the idea that any permitting deal would have to benefit all types of energy projects.
The SPEED Act closely resembles a McCarthy-era approach to energy policy: just make everything go faster.
It is true that the bill would bind the hands of the executive in some ways, requiring them to get consent from the project developer in order to voluntarily vacate a previously-issued NEPA approval. If someone sued the government because they believed a NEPA approval was invalid and got a federal court to agree, the judge overseeing the case would be barred from immediately vacating the approval or issuing an injunction on construction. This is a big reason why the oil and gas industry supports the bill, as it’s a way to shield the sector from environmentalists filing lawsuits against fossil-based extraction and fuel transportation projects (e.g. pipelines).
But there’s a small irony in the SPEED Act spinning out over offshore wind concerns, which is that if it were enacted today, not even its supporters think it would actually stop the administration from messing with wind projects. As pro-fossil pundit Alex Epstein noted on X, the bill would only limit the president’s authority to revoke approvals under NEPA. It would do nothing to erode presidential power under any other statute, including another one of the administration’s favorite tools against offshore wind, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act.
I spoke with two separate energy industry attorneys who confirmed this interpretation. “It would be welcome for whatever the next administration would look like,” Peter Whitfield, a partner at Sidley Austin who works on energy projects, told me of the SPEED Act. “It might not be helpful now.” The bill’s clean energy backers are looking at the legislation as a “long range” play, he said: “They’re not looking at year one, two, three — they’re looking at years eight and after. I think that’s why there is so much enthusiasm in the renewable energy space for reform.”
Another attorney, who requested anonymity because they did not have permission from their firm, confirmed that the bill would stop the Trump administration from exploiting NEPA in the future, but said that nothing in the legislation requires agencies to move forward on energy projects.
It’s that eight-years-from-now future that seems to have the anti-renewables conservative wing in Congress worried. The House is expected to vote on the SPEED Act as soon as tomorrow, but lawmakers will first consider amendments offered by the Republicans who nearly killed the bill, including one that would explicitly bar offshore wind projects from benefiting under any of its NEPA changes.
If those amendments fail, the odds of final House passage are uncertain, although some Democrats who voted against the procedural motion may wind up voting for the final bill. If they succeed and the bill moves to the Senate, Democrats aim to add new ideas on transmission and the renewables permitting freeze that may upset frazzled Republicans even more.
“We would expect that senators wouldn’t endorse a House product,” Frank Macchiarola, chief advocacy officer for American Clean Power, told me in an interview last week. Macchiarola said the language in the House bill “goes a long way towards addressing the problem” of Trump’s war on renewables permits, but that it is “not a perfect product,” though he declined to speak on the record about what would get it closer to ideal. If I had to guess, I’d say that senators will try to provide new avenues for companies to compel an end to the review process, whether through legal challenges or other means of protest.
In other words, grab your popcorn — more drama is coming.
On EU’s EV reversal, ‘historic’ mineral deals, and India’s nuclear opening
Current conditions: Yet another powerful atmospheric river, this one dubbed Pineapple Express, is on track to throttle the Pacific Northwest this week • Bolivia is facing landslides • Western Australia is under severe risk of bushfire.
The Ford Motor Company expects to pay roughly $19.5 billion in charges, primarily from its electric vehicle business. In a press release, the automaker said it would refocus on hybrids and “efficient gas engines,” ramp up manufacturing of batteries for a standalone business, and boost truck production. The battery business aims to churn out 20 gigawatts of capacity every year starting in 2027. But the charges the company faces stem from its decision to abandon multibillion-dollar investments the carmaker made in new assembly lines for electric vehicles, demand for which slowed last year and dipped at the end of this year after the Trump administration phased out federal tax credits in September. “This is a customer-driven shift to create a stronger, more resilient and more profitable Ford,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a press release. “The operating reality has changed, and we are redeploying capital into higher-return growth opportunities: Ford Pro, our market-leading trucks and vans, hybrids and high margin opportunities like our new battery energy storage business.”
Ford isn’t the only one accelerating in reverse away from electric vehicles. Last week I told you about the deal the European Union struck between its center-right and far-right lawmakers to curb environmental regulations. Now the bloc has moved to scrap its 2035 target to ban sales of new combustion-engine vehicles. The move would have marked a dramatic sea change in the West’s transportation policy, all but eliminating sales of traditional gasoline-powered cars in favor of battery-propelled alternatives. It’s a sign of Brussels’ broader effort to pull back from green mandates that European President Ursula von der Leyen blames for the continent’s economic malaise.

It could have been worse. The Treasury guidance issued Friday dictating what wind and solar projects will be eligible for federal tax credits could have effectively banned developers from tapping the write-offs set to start phasing out next July. In the weeks before the Internal Revenue Service released its rules, GOP lawmakers from states with thriving wind and solar industries, including Senators John Curtis of Utah and Chuck Grassley of Iowa, publicly lobbied for laxer rules as part of what they pitched as the all-of-the-above “energy dominance” strategy on which Trump campaigned. Grassley went so far as to block two of Trump’s Treasury nominees “until I can be certain that such rules and regulations adhere to the law and congressional intent,” as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin covered earlier in August.
Since the guidance came out on Friday, both Grassley and Curtis have put out positive statements backing the plan. “I appreciate the work of Secretary [Scott] Bessent and his staff in balancing various concerns and perspectives to address the President’s executive order on wind and solar projects,” Curtis said, according to E&E News. Calling renewables “an essential part of the ‘all of the above’ energy equation,” Grassley’s statement said the guidance “seems to offer a viable path forward for the wind and solar industries to continue to meet increased energy demand” and “reflects some of the concerns Congress and industry leaders have raised.”
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Virginia’s outgoing Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin vetoed more energy bills than he signed last year, killing legislation designed to increase rooftop solar and energy storage, boost utility planning requirements, and make efficiency improvements more available to low-income residents. Now that Democrat Abigail Spanberger is coming in to replace Youngkin as the next governor, those bills are coming back, the Virginia Mercury reported. In a column, lawyer and environmentalist Ivy Main called on Democrats to dream bigger. “Data center development is so far outstripping supply side solutions that if legislators aren’t more aggressive this year, next year they will find themselves further behind than ever,” Main wrote. “As more bills are filed over the coming weeks, we are likely to see plenty of bold proposals. Hopefully, legislators now understand the urgency, and will be ready to act.”
Data centers are now “swallowing American politics,” Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote recently. Just 44% of Americans would welcome a data center nearby, according to a poll from September by Heatmap Pro.
The 1984 Bhopal chemical disaster in India never resulted in any serious ramifications for Union Carbide, the Dow Chemical subsidiary responsible for the accident that left more than 3,700 dead from exposure to toxic gases. In 2010, India passed a law that threatened to impose full civil penalties on any private nuclear company that suffered an accident somehow. That legislation has prevented all but Russia’s state-owned nuclear company from entering the Indian market. Hoping to lure American small modular reactor companies to India, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed all year to overhaul the civil liability law. On Monday, Modi-aligned lawmakers proposed legislation to reform the nuclear sector and free foreign vendors from financial responsibility for anything that could potentially happen with their equipment.
The renewables industry, meanwhile, is continuing to boom on the subcontinent. The Japanese industrial giant agreed to invest $1.3 billion into renewable power in India in its latest push into green energy in South Asia, Bloomberg reported.
There’s green hydrogen, made from blasting freshwater with electricity made by renewables. There’s blue hydrogen, the version of the fuel that comes from natural gas mitigated with carbon capture equipment. Gray hydrogen is the traditional kind made with natural gas that spews pollution into the atmosphere. And then there’s pink hydrogen, made like the green kind with clean electricity except generated by a nuclear reactor. Orange is the latest color in the hydrogen rainbow, referring to the version of the gas that comes from a chemical process that accelerates production of the gas in natural formations underground. The startup Vema has announced a 10-year conditional offtake agreement with the off-grid data center power provider Verne to supply over 36,000 metric tons per year of “orange” hydrogen for server farms, Heatmap’s Katie Brigham reported.
The startup Vema just signed a new offtake agreement to provide 36,000 tons of orange hydrogen per year for data centers.
Love it or hate it, it’s looking like there may be a good reason to add yet another color to the hydrogen rainbow. In 2022, Florian Osselin, co-founder and CSO of the startup Vema Hydrogen, published a paper in Nature called “Orange hydrogen is the new green,” in which he outlines how to expedite the natural process of hydrogen formation in certain underground geologies, laying the foundation for what the company now calls Engineered Mineral Hydrogen.
Osselin’s startup, Vema, is now announcing a 10-year conditional offtake agreement with the off-grid data center power startup Verne to supply over 36,000 metric tons per year of so-called “orange” hydrogen for data centers. The announcement comes on the heels of Vema’s $13 million seed round earlier this year, which supports the company’s efforts to take its engineered hydrogen experiments out of the lab and into the field.
Vema’s ultimate goal is to produce low-carbon hydrogen at less than $1 per kilogram, making it cost competitive with petroleum-derived hydrogen and magnitudes cheaper than clean hydrogen produced via electrolysis.
“The Earth is generating hydrogen all the time,” Colin McCulley, the startup’s senior vice president of operations, told me. “So those reactions, when they’re close to the surface, are very, very slow and not fast enough to create enough hydrogen to capture.” To expedite natural hydrogen production — which occurs when water interacts with iron-rich rocks underground — Vema will inject water and its proprietary catalyst into suitable formations. The catalyst is designed to increase both the speed and the scale of the reaction, rapidly forming large, commercially relevant quantities of hydrogen.
The company has done extensive exploration and testing, McCulley told me, with the team running over 100 experiments per week for over a year. But though the lab results have been promising, scaling up will be the true test. If the tech is a success, the plan is to begin selling hydrogen in 2028.
“We’re going to start small, in which case we will likely sell truckloads of hydrogen — think 10 tons a day-type scale,” McCulley told me. “The eventual goal is to have on-site — or basically next door — consumption of the hydrogen.” This would eliminate the need to build expensive hydrogen pipelines or transport the fuel via truck. That’s a valuable cost-cutting proposition for producers of clean fuels such as methanol and ammonia, which face steep green premiums and use hydrogen as a feedstock. McCulley also envisions co-locating with data centers.
Right now, the company is starting a pilot project in Canada, and planning for others atr undisclosed locations, where McCulley says there are well-studied deposits of iron-rich rocks that sit relatively close to the surface, ripe for producing engineered hydrogen. West Coast states including Oregon, Washington, California, and Alaska have particularly well-suited subsurface geologies that lie decently close to major metropolitan areas, he explained.
Low exploration risk is a key reason why Vema thinks it’s a better bet than geologic hydrogen companies such as Koloma, which focus on locating and extracting naturally occurring underground hydrogen deposits — no additional stimulation required. But these natural formations typically lie far deeper than Vema is targeting and there’s much less certainty about where they’re located, Vema’s CEO Pierre Levin told me in an email.
“Natural geologic hydrogen depends on complex underground systems with multiple interdependent variables,” Levin, who previously served as CEO of the geologic hydrogen company Hethos, wrote. “With natural hydrogen, you’re at nature’s mercy. [Engineered Mineral Hydrogen] changes the game because we control the subsurface production process, which means predictable, manageable flow rates.”
At the moment, however, investors appear to be lining up behind the geologic hydrogen approach. Koloma alone has raised over $350 million since its founding in 2021 — though it also has yet to produce commercial hydrogen.
McCulley estimates that its hydrogen won’t be cost competitive with fossil fuels until Vema has already completed several large-scale projects, which isn’t likely to happen until 2035 or 2040. “So we need to be able to get through some of these first projects where we’re going to have to sell at a premium price,” he told me. It’s never a guarantee that emerging technologies like this will find patient backers willing to bet on the promise that economies of scale are just over the horizon. The startup is currently raising its Series A, though, and McCulley said he’s seen strong interest from the tech industry in supporting Vema at the price point it’s targeting
The company wouldn’t reveal what price this is, though, and the numbers for its contract with Verne are also under wraps. That deal depends on both Vema and Verne advancing their tech to the point where it’s well-proven and bankable. For Verne, that means demonstrating the viability of its next-generation data center power systems, which include more efficient, off-grid generators capable of running on clean hydrogen. For Vema, it requires completing pilot testing and building a successful demo project. Both sides also have to secure additional funding.
If Vema can pull that together, the payoff looks huge. “If you start producing this stuff at less than $1 per kilogram, the sky’s the limit,” McCulley told me. “The current industrial [hydrogen] gas plants, the biggest ones are, say, around 200 tons per day,” he explained. “We can be five times that from one location.”