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On the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, the farm bill, and hurricane season

Current conditions: At least two people have died in ongoing flooding in southern Germany • Delhi’s deadly heat wave continues this week • Seven-inch hail reportedly fell in the Texas Panhandle.
Mexico resoundingly elected Claudia Sheinbaum as its next president over the weekend. Sheinbaum, 61, is making headlines for becoming the country’s first female president, as well as its first Jewish leader, but she is also a climate scientist, and her landslide victory “could mark a turning point from the current administration’s pro-fossil fuel policies,” as Climate Home News explained. Sheinbaum studied physics and then received her doctorate in energy engineering. She spent four years at the Lawrence Berkeley Lab studying Mexico’s energy consumption, and had a brief stint on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). She was tapped as secretary of the environment for Mexico City before being elected as the capital’s mayor in 2018. During her tenure she was an advocate for rooftop solar and better public transportation infrastructure.

On the presidential campaign trail, Sheinbaum promised to “accelerate the energy transition” by boosting wind and solar, installing new transmission lines, and improving the country’s hydropower stations. But she has also backed the “energy sovereignty” policies of her predecessor and mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He built an oil refinery, funneled support into an indebted state oil company, and failed to set a national net zero target. Under his leadership, private investment in renewable projects has slumped. Energy policy may be on Sheinbaum’s to-do list when she takes office in October, but tackling crime is likely to be top of the agenda.
The House returns to Washington this week, with 12 bills for 2025 fiscal spending up for debate. GOP lawmakers will seek “deep cuts for energy and environment programs,” E&E News reported, while looking to shift funding toward bills that prioritize defense and homeland security. The proposed Agriculture spending bill, up for subcommittee considerations on June 11, contains annual funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, among other agencies. The farm bill got the stamp of approval from the Agriculture Committee recently after the panel “rejected a Democratic-led effort to preserve conservation programs’ focus on farming practices that reduce emissions tied to the warming and erratic climate,” according to E&E News.
The Atlantic hurricane season started on Saturday, and forecasters are getting nervous as ocean water temperatures remain at record highs and the La Niña weather pattern approaches. Warm waters supercharge storms, while La Niña removes wind shear, which is “one key barrier that can block Atlantic storms,” explained Brian Sullivan at Bloomberg. This morning the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 60% chance of La Niña returning between July and September, and a 70% chance that it’ll make an appearance between August and November. “We’ve never had a La Niña combined with ocean temperatures this warm in recorded history so that’s a little ominous,” University of Miami tropical meteorology researcher Brian McNoldy told PBS. Various agencies and experts (including NOAA and Colorado State University) estimate that the number of hurricanes this year could range between eight and 13, compared to the annual average of seven. But for now, the coast is clear:

A whopper early-season heat wave is headed for the West Coast, and it could last all week – maybe longer. The heat dome will likely tip temperatures into triple digits in Northern California, with Sacramento Valley expecting to see 110 degrees Fahrenheit by Wednesday. The heat could “be the death knell for the remainder of the state’s snowpack,” wrote Hayley Smith at the Los Angeles Times. Coastal regions will probably be spared the worst of the heat. That said, a wildfire near San Francisco has burned about 14,000 acres, making it the state’s largest fire of the season so far. It was about 50% contained as of yesterday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed over the weekend to continue to cut oil production into 2025, the Financial Times reported. There are several reasons: Demand growth remains slow, interest rates remain high, and the U.S. is ramping up production. All of this means OPEC+ isn’t keen to boost supply for fear of depressing oil prices, which have hovered around $80 per barrel recently, down from $90 in April, and much lower than OPEC’s desired $100 per barrel.
The European Union’s wind and solar power generation has increased by 45% since 2019, while fossil fuel power generation has dropped by 22%.
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France’s deadliest heat wave since 2003 killed more than 2,700 people — and possibly as many as 5,700.
More than 5,700 excess deaths were recorded in France during this summer’s record-breaking heat wave, the country’s health agency announced today. That makes the event — which ran, by the official reckoning, from June 17 to July 2 — the country’s deadliest heat wave in more than 20 years.
That’s in line with other estimates we’ve heard. EuroMOMO, a network of European public health agencies that track excess mortality, found that the continent saw more than 10,000 excess deaths during the same period. Roughly 90% of those victims were older than 65, it said. (France’s cohort seems similar: Adults older than 75 made up about two-thirds of the victims, the government said.)
These numbers are staggering — and much larger than some astute Heatmap readers might anticipate. If you read my colleague Jeva Lange’s piece on why it’s so hard to estimate heat deaths last week, she cited a much smaller estimate: Roughly 2,700 died in France during the most recent heat wave. That tally came from Christopher Callahan, an Indiana University scientist who studies climate change’s economic and social costs.
Why is there such a gap between the figures? I emailed Callahan to find out. He shared a few thoughts. First, he uses a different (and theoretically more rigorous) method than the French government: “Our approach uses a statistical relationship between temperature and mortality to explicitly quantify how many additional deaths are associated with a given day’s temperature,” he wrote. “France’s report of excess deaths is just based on how many more people died in late June compared to previous Junes - but we don’t know if those people died because of the heat or some other factor.” (Carbon Brief recently published a Q&A on these varying approaches.)
That might mean his estimate is right, in which case France has misidentified roughly nearly 3,000 deaths. But it could also mean his model, which is trained on data from 2004 to 2019, is “missing something,” he said, like a post-Covid change to public health risk. Last year, Callahan and his colleagues used a similar model to estimate deaths from France’s worst-ever heatwave, a 2003 episode that overwhelmed morgues and killed about 16,000 people. Even 23 years ago, global warming helped make that disaster larger than it needed to be: Some 6,000 of those deaths were due to climate change, their paper found.
Either estimate of the 2026 heat wave, of course, is shattering. As Jeva wrote, even the lower figure would mean the 2026 heat wave killed as many people as died in three years of French homicides. But the divergence in estimates tells us something else too: Even as climate change breaks records and alters our world, we’re never going to quite agree on where it ends and normal randomness begins.
The AI data center boom does not seem close to ending. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, announced its second quarter results this evening, and it beat Wall Street’s expectations, nearly quadrupling its profit on a year-over-year basis. Among the drivers: Its cloud business grew 82% compared to the same quarter last year. (As I’ve written, that rapid growth is helping to turn Alphabet and other hyperscalers into light industrial firms.)
The company’s AI bets seem to be paying off so far — so Google is now planning on spending even more on data centers, energy infrastructure and AI development this year than it once anticipated. It raised its estimates of 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is above earlier projections and twice as much as it spent in the same category last year. 2027 could be even bigger, it signaled. The company’s shares fell slightly on the news in after-hours trading, but from an energy and climate wonk perspective, the message is clear: For now, the AI demand surge transforming the power sector — and the real economy — continues to chug along.