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Politics

We Fact Checked Everything Trump Has Said About the Paris Agreement Since 2021

No, it’s not a “ripoff.”

Donald Trump and climate delegates.
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If Donald Trump retakes the White House in November, he will direct the U.S. to leave the Paris Agreement — again. This time, though, the ex-president and his allies also plan to make it more difficult for any future Democratic president to rejoin the international deal to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius.

Trump’s most frequently proclaimed gripe with the climate treaty (beyond not believing in climate change) is that it rips off the U.S.

“The Paris Accord was going to cost us $1 trillion and China, nothing, Russia, nothing, India, nothing. It was a ripoff of the United States.” [June 27, 2024]

Fact check: This is inaccurate even by Donald Trump standards. In Trump’s 2017 Rose Garden address announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — the 2015 treaty that united most countries around the world in the quest to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius — Trump claimed that by 2040, compliance would entail a cost to the economy that would approach “$3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs.” As proof, he cited a study conducted by NERA Economic Consulting, which later issued a news release stating that “the Trump administration selectively used results” from its study and that “NERA’s study was not a cost-benefit analysis of the Paris Agreement, nor does it purport to be one.”

The claim that China, Russia, and India would pay “nothing,” meanwhile, appears to be an allusion to the obligation for wealthier nations like the U.S. to direct hundreds of billions of dollars to poorer nations to adapt to the impacts of climate change. As my colleague Katie Brigham said, it’s true there’s controversy around whether China or India, which have giant (but still developing) economies, should either provide this funding or receive this funding. Russia, which joined the agreement in 2019, hasn’t really been a part of this conversation, though.

“I will also immediately stop crooked Joe Biden’s latest ripoff of the American people, his plan to give — listen to this — global climate reparations to foreign nations. He’s going to give billions of dollars, because he’s saying that we have a dirty climate.” [Dec. 16, 2023]

Fact check: The U.S. will not “under any circumstances” pay climate reparations to developing nations, climate envoy John Kerry vowed in front of Congress last year. The situation is, however — and unsurprisingly — more complicated than that.

At COP28 last year, the U.S. pledged $17.5 million to the UN’s “loss and damage” fund, which is intended to help developing countries recover from future climate disasters. While some outlets — including this publication — have characterized this fund as “reparations,” the fund has more in common with other international pledges directed at helping developing countries than calls for climate reparations that hold historic polluters morally and financially responsible.

“We have China that doesn’t partake; we have India that doesn’t partake; and we have Russia that doesn’t partake. None of them partake in cleaning the climate. They laugh at us, how stupid we are. We clean the climate and then their air flows to us from Asia.” [March 3, 2022]

Fact check: China, India, and Russia are all Paris Agreement signatories. But even if they truly didn’t “partake” at all in international climate mitigation efforts, that hardly means the U.S. shouldn’t try to be cleaner.

But let’s take Trump at face value here. When asked to assess if the Paris Agreement gives an unfair advantage to nations like China and India, law professor Daniel Bodansky at the Arizona State University College of Law pointed out to USA Today that “the United States is the second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and has higher per capita emissions than either China or India. It is misleading to point the finger at China and India and label them as the real polluters.”

What about the bad air flowing to us “from Asia,” then? This isn’t total nonsense. For one thing, we do all share the same atmosphere; that’s kind of the whole point of the global movement to stop climate change. But more concretely, yes, researchers have found that pollutants from China can make their way to the Western U.S.

Here’s where it gets awkward: “An estimated 36% of manmade sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxide, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon over China are the result of manufacturing goods for export. About a fifth of each of these was associated with products exported to the U.S. in particular,” Scientific American writes. In other words, a lot of that “bad air” flowing to us from Asia that Trump is complaining about is from manufacturing products for Americans.

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Hotspots

GOP Lawmaker Asks FAA to Rescind Wind Farm Approval

And more on the week’s biggest fights around renewable energy.

The United States.
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1. Benton County, Washington – The Horse Heaven wind farm in Washington State could become the next Lava Ridge — if the Federal Aviation Administration wants to take up the cause.

  • On Monday, Dan Newhouse, Republican congressman of Washington, sent a letter to the FAA asking them to review previous approvals for Horse Heaven, claiming that the project’s development would significantly impede upon air traffic into the third largest airport in the state, which he said is located ten miles from the project site. To make this claim Newhouse relied entirely on the height of the turbines. He did not reference any specific study finding issues.
  • There’s a wee bit of irony here: Horse Heaven – a project proposed by Scout Clean Energy – first set up an agreement to avoid air navigation issues under the first Trump administration. Nevertheless, Newhouse asked the agency to revisit the determination. “There remains a great deal of concern about its impact on safe and reliable air operations,” he wrote. “I believe a rigorous re-examination of the prior determination of no hazard is essential to properly and accurately assess this project’s impact on the community.”
  • The “concern” Newhouse is referencing: a letter sent from residents in his district in eastern Washington whose fight against Horse Heaven I previously chronicled a full year ago for The Fight. In a letter to the FAA in September, which Newhouse endorsed, these residents wrote there were flaws under the first agreement for Horse Heaven that failed to take into account the full height of the turbines.
  • I was first to chronicle the risk of the FAA grounding wind project development at the beginning of the Trump administration. If this cause is taken up by the agency I do believe it will send chills down the spines of other project developers because, up until now, the agency has not been weaponized against the wind industry like the Interior Department or other vectors of the Transportation Department (the FAA is under their purview).
  • When asked for comment, FAA spokesman Steven Kulm told me: “We will respond to the Congressman directly.” Kulm did not respond to an additional request for comment on whether the agency agreed with the claims about Horse Heaven impacting air traffic.

2. Dukes County, Massachusetts – The Trump administration signaled this week it will rescind the approvals for the New England 1 offshore wind project.

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Q&A

How Rep. Sean Casten Is Thinking of Permitting Reform

A conversation with the co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition

Rep. Sean Casten.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Rep. Sean Casten, co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of climate hawkish Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. Casten and another lawmaker, Rep. Mike Levin, recently released the coalition’s priority permitting reform package known as the Cheap Energy Act, which stands in stark contrast to many of the permitting ideas gaining Republican support in Congress today. I reached out to talk about the state of play on permitting, where renewables projects fit on Democrats’ priority list in bipartisan talks, and whether lawmakers will ever address the major barrier we talk about every week here in The Fight: local control. Our chat wound up immensely informative and this is maybe my favorite Q&A I’ve had the liberty to write so far in this newsletter’s history.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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Spotlight

How to Build a Wind Farm in Trump’s America

A renewables project runs into trouble — and wins.

North Dakota and wind turbines.
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It turns out that in order to get a wind farm approved in Trump’s America, you have to treat the project like a local election. One developer working in North Dakota showed the blueprint.

Earlier this year, we chronicled the Longspur wind project, a 200-megawatt project in North Dakota that would primarily feed energy west to Minnesota. In Morton County where it would be built, local zoning officials seemed prepared to reject the project – a significant turn given the region’s history of supporting wind energy development. Based on testimony at the zoning hearing about Longspur, it was clear this was because there’s already lots of turbines spinning in Morton County and there was a danger of oversaturation that could tip one of the few friendly places for wind power against its growth. Longspur is backed by Allete, a subsidiary of Minnesota Power, and is supposed to help the utility meet its decarbonization targets.

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