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It’s official: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz got the rose.
On Tuesday morning, after days of frenzied speculation that floated names including Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Kamala Harris announced that Walz’s name will be the one to underline hers on the presumptive Democratic presidential ticket.
Many on the climate left will likely be thrilled by the pick: Of all the finalists reportedly in contention for VP, Walz had the most impressive clean energy and environmental accomplishments. An Army veteran and former congressman of a rural, otherwise conservative Minnesota district, Walz has a record of working across party lines to get things accomplished. In 2009, he memorably voted for the doomed cap-and-trade bill and defended his position to tough crowds of Midwestern farmers and ranchers.
Within months of being sworn in as Governor of Minnesota in 2019, Walz set a goal for his state to get its electricity from 100% carbon-free sources by 2050. At the time, only a few other states had similar goals. “Climate change is an existential threat. We must take immediate action,” Walz argued at the time. “If Washington is not going to lead, Minnesota will lead.”
By the time Walz signed actual emissions legislation into law last year, he’d set an even more ambitious timeline — carbon-free electricity by 2040. The bill also streamlined permitting, set a minimum wage for employees constructing large-scale utility projects, and included an environmental justice provision to keep energy from waste incineration plants in frontline communities from counting toward the 2040 goal. Minnesota continued “crushing it on climate action” in the months that followed, with Walz securing a $2 billion budget package that included grid improvements, solar panels on state-owned buildings, an electric-vehicle rebate program, heat pump grants and rebates, a green bank, and more. He also signed a transportation bill to overhaul transit hubs, expand passenger rail service, improve infrastructure, and offer electric bike credits.
And he hasn’t stopped. Earlier this summer, Walz announced a $200 million grant to reduce food-related pollution, including protecting and restoring carbon-absorbing peatlands, improving food waste programs, and replacing gas-powered agricultural machinery with trucks that run on electricity or clean fuel. The state is also considering bills that would reform building codes to improve access to affordable housing — an issue Walz has taken a personal interest in. Walz is also, apparently, a YIMBY on energy permitting.
YIMBYs to the white house!
"We have permitting that takes too long...and prohibits or makes more expensive doing renewable energy projects. I think that same thing applies to housing. We put up barriers to making it more affordable." - Democratic VP Candidate Tim Walz https://t.co/MAiy3Ct5B5 pic.twitter.com/EnswfMw67g
— Jordan Grimes 🚰 (@cafedujord) August 6, 2024
Walz’s canny communication skills have already been much remarked upon, and he’s openly recognized that many on the left struggle with a messaging problem regarding climate change. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community,” the governor told Time’s Justin Worland. “All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”
Walz’s record isn’t spotless, though. During his congressional career, he earned a score of just 75% from the League of Conservation Voters. Earlier this summer, a coalition of 16 environmental groups, including the local Sierra Club chapter, called out Walz and his administration for being too soft on regulation, including state agencies’ reliance on farmers voluntarily complying with nitrate pollution limits, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency’s failure to adequately police air quality violations from a foundry in a low-income neighborhood, and what the group argued was a flawed permitting process for a crude oil pipeline built through wetlands. North Dakota Republicans — including Governor Doug Burgum, who’s been floated for a potential Trump cabinet — have pressured Walz to include carbon capture as a carbon-free energy technology under the state’s emissions law (currently, decisions over CCS and hydrogen are under the purview of Minnesota’s Public Utilities Commission).
There’s also the small matter that Harris and Walz have to actually win to be able to enact any of their climate goals. At least on paper, the math had looked slightly better for Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, who is an incredibly popular governor in a must-win state. “Minnesota is very unlikely to be the tipping point state — less than a 1% chance,” Nate Silver wrote Tuesday morning, arguing that Shapiro would have been a better pick despite mounting criticism from progressives.
Within hours of the news, though, the climate left had already enthusiastically circled around Walz. In a statement, Evergreen Action Executive Director Lena Moffitt applauded Walz’s “masterclass in how to govern in a way that meaningfully improves people’s lives and sets the state up for a thriving future.” Cassidy DiPaola, the communications director at Fossil Free Media and a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign, likewise acknowledged Walz’s progress on green issues, nodding to his “evolution into a climate champion.” She added that Walz has more than proven himself at the state level and that “his ability to connect climate policy to the everyday concerns of Midwestern and rural voters could prove invaluable in building broader support for climate action.”
That, after all, will be the big question. Early voting for the next president of the United States begins in 41 days.
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Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by ... another wind opponent.
Democrat Zack Mullock unseated Representative Jeff Van Drew, one of offshore wind’s biggest foes, on Tuesday night in the race for New Jersey’s second district. But while Mullock is a fan of renewable energy, he’s still a man of the south Jersey shore — and unlikely to be a champion for turbines off his coast.
District 2 encompasses the entire lower quarter of the state, covering six coastal counties from Atlantic City down to the tip of Cape May and around to the Delaware Bay. The area is a hotbed for offshore wind opposition, where groups like Protect our Coasts NJ have filed legal challenges against almost every wind project proposed in the region.
After heading to Congress in 2019, Van Drew, who was previously a Democrat, switched parties and became a key ally to this movement. He called for a moratorium on offshore wind development, held hearings on offshore wind “industrialization”, and requested that the Government Accountability Office investigate the industry. He also worked with the Trump administration to block projects that were under construction.
During a debate in late October, Mullock accused Van Drew of flip flopping on wind, arguing that the congressman was a staunch supporter of the industry during his decade-long tenure in the New Jersey legislature. Mullock, who is currently serving his second term as mayor of the city of Cape May, summed up his own position by citing a resolution he signed in 2023 calling for a moratorium on surveying and acoustic testing for offshore wind development pending an investigation into a spate of whale deaths. He signed it due to “concerns” about the environment and commercial fishing, he said.
“I believe very much in our future with renewable energy,” he said. “We need to go full steam ahead with solar panels. And yes we should do wind where it is appropriate, where it doesn't hurt our environment and it doesn't hurt our commercial fishing industry.”
Mullock’s campaign website says he supports federal investments in renewable energy and incentives for energy-efficient homes. He also wants “stricter enforcement of the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act,” and to fund coastal resiliency and other “smart infrastructure” projects that protect against climate impacts. He also campaigned in support of a data center moratorium.
Early signs point to a rough election for AI infrastructure.
We’ve seen enough: If this was the data center election, it was a really bad night for the industry.
Democratic campaigns and their affiliated Super PACs spent bigly on data center-themed attack ads. The ads came in various flavors. Some ads painted a vote for tax cuts as aiding data center developers. Others brought up candidates’ previous support for data centers or stock the candidate may have held in the tech industry or AI infrastructure developers. As Election Day approached, the data center industry sought to bat back claims that their sector’s poor reputation with the electorate would sway the results. People may have soured on their industry, they argued, but people weren’t going to vote based on that position.
Results are still coming in, but so far congressional races heavily featuring these data center attacks are heavily going in Democrats’ favor. In addition, these races have so profoundly shifted that it’ll be challenging for the industry to argue they played no role in the outcome.
Some of the most illustrative examples are obvious. In Georgia, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms campaigned on a statewide data center moratorium and won control of the governor’s mansion, becoming the first black woman to ever lead a U.S. state. Similar results in Ohio where Amy Acton flipped party control of the governor’s seat with a campaign that included going hard against data centers. In Pennsylvania, two Democrats who focused on data centers in their races have flipped Republican districts: Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti and firefighter Bob Brooks. In New Jersey, Cape May mayor Zack Mullock rode data center attacks to defeat Rep. Jeff Van Drew, the biggest opponent of the offshore wind industry. In Virginia, Democrat Shannon Taylor rode data center-laden attacks to take control of the Richmond area congressional seat from Rep. Rob Wittman.
If you’re arguing this election was decided by data centers, your best proof point: Democrat Gina Hinojosa has taken control of the governor's mansion in Texas, defeating incumbent Greg Abbott, who’d sought recently to take a hard line against the industry. Hinojosa ran on going further, calling to pass a law completely pausing data center development across one of the industry’s favorite states. She won a decisive victory. So did Democratic Texas Agriculture Commissioner candidate Clayton Tucker, who I explained months ago became one of anti-data center Facebook’s favorite online personalities.
But it makes sense that data centers would matter a lot in Texas, which could be compared to Virginia in terms of their buildout. When you inspect the election results more closely, they tell a more complicated story about the upper boundaries of these data center attacks.
For decades, Greenville and Spartanburg County have been GOP vote strongholds and reliable for both Republican congressional candidates and statewide campaigns. The congressional district gave Donald Trump at least a 20-point cushion in the 2024 presidential election, according to Decision Desk HQ. Last week, I explained for subscribers to The Fight how Courtney McClain, a novice candidate living one mile from a controversial data center proposal, was running against incumbent Rep. William Timmons. I couldn’t find much in the way of online ad spending on either side in this race and it’s never been on the radar of most political observers as a campaign that could somehow flip party control. But the data center debate in Spartanburg County has been immense.
Tonight, Timmons kept his ordinarily ruby red district by slim single digits after running even for most of the night. But this swing was essentially the same as the national margin. And because Timmons didn’t lose, this actually feels like a crucial distinction – data centers were not deciding races themselves in all cases. Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Republican Darlene Graham in a result driven by Democratic overperformance and GOP underperformance in this area, but it’s challenging to tie this result to the data center issue at all. Anything from the economy and the Iran War to Graham’s deceased brother and his baggage could be blamed for this result from this heavily evangelical region.
However, it will be challenging for the data center sector to differentiate themselves from this outcome, especially since a pro-data center Super PAC – Building the Future – publicly waded into the race in support of Graham only to lose. “Darlene Graham’s loss is a black eye for the data center industry,” wrote Teddy Schleifer of The New York Times on election night.
The same story played out in Georgia’s 1st district, which includes the city of Savannah. OpenAI is developing a controversial data center project in Effingham County, northwest of Savannah and the congressional race – which like South Carolina’s 4th had comparatively little spending – has been chock full of data center mudslinging, with the Democrat Amanda Hollowell calling for broader moratoria on development.
Effingham County went for Trump by almost 50 points in 2024. As of this story’s publication, the Republican, Jim Kingston, is winning by a single percentage point with 93% of the vote in. Most of what’s left is in Effington. Should this candidate win, it’s safe to say it’s because voters in this county looked past data centers, or did not link their vote for a national candidate to the local development.
On Election Night, Effingham County formally tabled any decision on the OpenAI data center. So at least on the ground level, people are paying close attention to these results.
After taking two seats in a special election last year, the party gained a third in the midterms.
Democrats claimed two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission in a special election last year, ending almost 20 years of unanimous Republican control over the regulator.
One of those winning Democrats, Peter Hubbard, ran again this year for a full six-year term in a rematch against Republican Fitz Johnson. The other open seat this year saw Sheila Edwards running in an open race against Republican Josh Tolbert.
Both Hubbard and Edwads won, securing a 3–2 Democratic majority on the Public Service Commission.
“Over the last 12 months, Georgian consumers have made one thing clear: They are tired of rising utility bills and they are hungry to see change. Georgia’s sea change moment for energy policy has arrived,” Charles Hua, the executive director of the utility-focused advocacy group PowerLines, told me.
The Democrats have not been shy about what their priorities will be on the commission.
“Winning control of the Georgia Public Service Commission means prioritizing lowering power bills instead of constantly increasing corporate profits, ramping up the deployment of clean energy technologies, and focusing the people in our decision-making as state regulators,” Hubbard said in a statement on his website.
Edwards, for her part, made it clear where she stands on data centers specifically in an October debate with Tolbert. “They came into our communities,” Edwards said. “They didn’t pay any taxes. They are using our water, using our electricity, and they’re being a public nuisance to the communities that they’re coming into.”
Hubbard also talked about data centers on Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast back in June. “I advocate for a whole-of-government approach, because while the Public Service Commission really only has oversight over the power side of things — where that power comes from and how much data centers are paying on their tariff — there’s much larger issues in terms of water use, in terms of the tax incentives,” he told my colleague Robinson Meyer. “The estimate is $3.5 billion in tax abatements this year in Georgia, uncollected revenue that data centers otherwise would be willing to pay.”
The race has seen outsize spending and interest from major figures not accustomed to dealing in utility regulator races. (Just 10 states have elected utility commissions, period.) Kamala Harris appeared at a virtual fundraiser for the Democratic candidates in Georgia, as well as Democratic hopefuls to the Arizona Corporation Commission. The solar energy industry spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of the Democrats in Georgia. Meanwhile, anonymous donors pumped millions of dollars into Tolbert’s bid.
Democrats swept into the Georgia PSC last year on a wave of dissatisfaction with rising electricity prices, especially rate hikes attached to the construction of two new nuclear reactors at the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, which ran years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. In the runup to the election, the PSC approved a three-year base rate freeze proposed by Georgia Power in an attempt to head off public dissatisfaction.
In the past year, rates in Georgia have gone up by less than 1% across the state on average, according to the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub, while rates are up over 18% in the last three years and over 6% in the past two years.
Shares in Southern Company, the parent company of Georgia Power, were down slightly more than 0.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday night.