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On stronger uranium, Elon Musk’s big gamble, and Japan’s offshore headwinds

Current conditions: A warm front coming from the Southwest is raising temperatures up to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average across the Upper Midwest • A heat wave nearly 200 miles north of Montreal in La Tuque, Quebec, is sending temperatures to nearly 80 degrees today • Typhoon Matmo has made landfall in southern China, forcing thousands to evacuate amid peak holiday season.
The United States’ beleaguered offshore-wind industry has found a new ally in its effort to fend off President Donald Trump’s assault: Big Oil. On Sunday, the Financial Times published an interview with Shell’s top executive in the U.S., in which she called the administration’s decision to halt permitting on seaborne turbines “very damaging” to investment and warned that a future Democratic president could use the precedent Trump set to attack the oil and gas industry. “However far the pendulum swings one way, it’s likely that it’s going to swing just as far the other way,” Colette Hirstius, president of Shell USA, told the newspaper when asked about the Trump administration’s stop-work orders on offshore wind farms. “I certainly would like to see those projects that have been permitted in the past continue to be developed. Similarly, if you think of the business I run offshore [Gulf of Mexico], that type of permitting uncertainty has been utilized to undermine the permits that we have in the past — and that’s equally as damaging.”
As I reported last month in this newsletter, a federal judge blocked Trump’s stop-work order on the 80% complete wind farm off Rhode Island’s coast. But the administration’s multi-agency onslaught against the offshore wind industry, which Heatmap’s Jael Holzman called a “total war,” is already taking a toll. Danish wind giant Orsted, for example, was forced to raise money via an unusual offering of new shares — which it then sold at a nearly 70% discount.
The Trump administration said Friday it would delay $2.1 billion in funding for transit projects in Chicago amid negotiations with Democrats in Congress to approve a federal budget. The move comes after Russ Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, announced cuts to major New York City infrastructure projects, in what Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin interpreted as Trump’s “seeking retribution from New Yorkers” for the ongoing government shutdown, since Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries both hail from the city.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, is withholding more than $300 million in emergency preparedness grants from states until they can prove that the population estimates used to calculate the funding awards do not include people who have been deported as part of the administration’s immigration crackdown. A group representing state emergency management agencies called the move “a never-before-seen provision” that amounts to “further delaying resources intended to strengthen disaster preparedness and emergency response,” The New York Times reported Friday.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave fuel giant Urenco’s U.S. subsidiary the green light last week to produce reactor pellets enriched with up to double the normal concentration of uranium-235. This past spring, the utility giant Southern Company made history by loading one of the older reactors at the nation’s most powerful nuclear station in Georgia with what’s known as LEU+, a version of low-enriched uranium that goes beyond the roughly 5% enrichment limit regulators typically set for the fuel. Uranium enriched up to 10% with U-235, the fissile isotope that can produce energy through atom-splitting, leaves behind less waste and can keep a reactor going for longer. In a press release, Urenco said the federal permit to produce LEU+ at its Eunice plant in New Mexico “will create new opportunities for the current U.S. reactor fleet by allowing for longer operating cycles and fewer refueling outages.”
Elon Musk will need to spend at least $18 billion to buy roughly 300,000 more Nvidia microchips to complete his sprawling Memphis data center complex, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. The project, called Colossus, has a colossal appetite for electricity. In July, Musk bought a former gas plant in Mississippi. In August, green groups accused xAI of violating federal air pollution rules with its use of gas-fired turbines to power its servers. The federally owned Tennessee Valley Authority’s aggressive push to build more nuclear reactors is often discussed as a means of supplying Musk’s demand with cleaner power, but those projects are still years away from producing electrons.
Over the course of one year, Musk’s xAI has surged to become the second-largest taxpayer in the Tennessee county, after FedEx, as the company burns through cash at what the newspaper called “a breakneck clip.” Earlier this year, xAI raised $10 billion through a combination of debt and equity, and its billionaire founder has turned to his privately held SpaceX to chip in $2 billion. “In typical xAI and Elon fashion, the company’s future is highly unpredictable,” Dylan Patel, chief executive of the semiconductor and artificial intelligence research firm SemiAnalysis, told the Journal. “Elon will do everything he can to not lose to Sam Altman.” He’s struggling. On Monday morning, Altman’s OpenAI inked a deal to buy chips from AMD, just weeks after signing a $100 billion agreement with Nvidia, The New York Times reported.
Japan last week “delayed indefinitely” an auction to set government funding levels for offshore wind projects in what Bloomberg called “the latest blow to the country’s push to expand renewable energy supplies.” The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry put the auction, which had been scheduled to start on October 14 and run for two weeks, on hold to give officials time to reassess the effects of higher interest rates and rising material costs. In August, Japanese industrial giant Mitsubishi Corp. announced its withdrawal from several projects won via a previous auction, citing escalating construction costs.
Scientists have long wondered when and how otophysans, the supergroup of fish that accounts for two-thirds of all freshwater fish and includes catfish, carps, and tetras, evolved to live outside saltwater oceans. A fossil of a tiny fish found in southwestern Alberta has provided some answers. The four-centimeter specimen from the Late Cretaceous period — between 100.5 million and 66 million years ago, when the iconic Tyrannosaurus Rex lived — showed the distinct first four vertebrae that otophysans evolved to transmit vibrations to the ear from the swim bladder. The discovery of the species, named Acronichthys maccognoi, “fills a gap in our record of the otophysans supergroup,” Neil Banerjee, a Western University scientist and co-author of the study, said in a press release. “It is the oldest North America member of the group and provides incredible data to help document the origin and early evolution of so many freshwater fish living today.”
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Current conditions: The wildfires in Spokane, Washington, have now incinerated 850 structures, most of which were homes • Thunderstorms are rumbling over Des Moines, Iowa, breaking the dense “corn sweat” humidity evaporating off crop fields • Severe storms in Brazil’s southeasternmost Rio Grande do Sul province have left at least one dead.
The paradox of President Donald Trump’s critical mineral policy, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin put it last year, remains unresolved. His administration did away with the main domestic market signal for minerals by eliminating the electric vehicle tax credit with incentives for U.S. content last year. But the White House has pulled out the stops to support projects that aim to produce lithium, rare earths, and other minerals needed for weapons and energy manufacturing. On Friday, the Department of Defense announced a package worth more than $2 billion in funding for companies churning out batteries and the minerals contained in them. The funding includes $1.4 billion for the battery company Sila Nanotechnologies and $400 million for Sunrise Energy Metals, a producer of scandium, which is needed for high-heat aluminum alloys for fighter jets and spacecraft. “We want these essential products to be mined, refined and made right here in the USA,” Trump said at a press roundtable, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Trump isn’t the only one throwing money at minerals. The world’s top 50 mining stocks are now worth $2.3 trillion, up $18 billion for the month, according to a Mining.com analysis.
Amazon is reportedly behind plans to build a data center campus powered by a 7.7-gigawatt gas plant in Texas. In January, the project, known as GW Ranch, received a permit to build a gas plant with a pollution output of 33 million tons of carbon dioxide. While the developer behind the facility had been secret, the clean energy consultancy Cleanview reviewed satellite imagery that identified how much land the project was clearing and matched that to public filings for permits. In a post on X, Michael Thomas, the company’s founder, wrote that he confirmed with Amazon that it had acquired the site and planned to buy power from the plant, which is being developed by Pacifico Energy. “Partnering with GW Ranch marks Amazon’s first major investment in an off-grid data center,” Thomas wrote. “In doing so, the company joins Microsoft, Google, and Meta who have all invested significantly in natural gas power this year.”
The U.S. is facing its most brutal wildfire season in years, with blazes “scorching millions of acres.” That’s according to a new analysis by Bloomberg, which found that the 17 fires raging across Washington State have now displaced more than 60,000 people — roughly 10% of the Spokane area’s population. Across the U.S., there are at least 44,722 fires raging across about 5.2 million acres, data from the National Interagency Fire Center shows.
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Ah, the electric minivan. The dream of every emissions-conscious parent or hauler of large things. Rare in America, but taking over Europe. That is, of course, what’s happening with Kia’s PV5. The small electric van now accounts for a third of Europe’s market for similar vehicles. Kia’s first electric van, according to Electrek, is the most popular electric light commercial vehicle on the continent and the United Kingdom.
Under Colombia’s last president, the far-left Gustavo Petro, the country moved to quash its oil drilling industry and embrace green energy. The new right-wing government of President Abelardo de la Espriella isn’t abandoning the effort. Edwin Palma, the minister of mines and energy, just approved a new National Hydrogen Policy that establishes a roadmap for $5 billion in investments into electrolyzers and other infrastructure through 2031, according to Hydrogen Insight.

Europe just got another new nuclear reactor. Slovakia split atoms for the first time at its Mochovce-4 nuclear plant after nearly 40 years of on-again, off-again construction, NucNet reported. The Russian-designed reactor could be among the country’s last purchases from the Kremlin-owned Rosatom as the conservative European Union nation embraces U.S. nuclear technology.
Facing down a sea change, the automaker has staked its next EV bet on a compact, sporty pickup.
“Full fathom five, your father lies,” the invisible spirit Ariel sings early in The Tempest, as a handsome and grieving prince listens, rapt. The song tells of a shipwrecked skeleton transforming into something else — its eyes have become pearls, and its bones pink coral — as it undergoes, yes, a “sea change.” It is the first time that phrase appears in the English language.
Ford is now facing its own kind of sea change. Over the past decade, the automaker has doubled down on its most profitable and exciting vehicles — pickups, SUVs, and the Mustang muscle car — and dropped from its line-up the cheap, boring cars that once made it famous. It embraced, then backed off, the transition to electric vehicles, in part because it failed to make money from them; and it began to reckon with the surge of cheaper, cleaner, and “far superior” EVs from Chinese producers that are transforming global auto markets around the world.
Locked into its aging but reliable line-up, yet unable to innovate at the low end, Ford might seem like the epitome of a company facing disruptive innovation. No wonder its stock has traded flat from where it was five years ago — even as the broader market has surged by more than 70%.
Its solution is an EV skunkworks, run by Tesla alumni, where it can develop a new “universal EV platform” to undergird future vehicles. Today, we got a peek at the first car to emerge from that secret shop: an all-electric compact pickup that will hit the roads by the end of next year. Its name? The Ford Fathom.
We know very little about the Fathom, as our correspondent Andrew Moseman wrote today. It will retail for just over $28,000, and even with mandatory delivery costs and other add-ons will stick to this side of $30,000. That makes it only a smidge more expensive than the gas-burning Ford Maverick, a sporty, compact, and popular pickup that starts around $27,000.
Ford promises that the Fathom will have as much seating capacity as Toyota’s RAV4, America’s best-selling car that isn’t a truck. (Ford’s own F-150, of course, holds the true No. 1 spot.) Those dimensions suggest the Fathom will sport a four-door crew cab, like the Maverick, making it more acceptable to families with kids — or young professionals who want to give their friends rides on the weekend. It will also have a frunk.
Beyond that, though, we don’t know much. We don’t know its range, for instance, and its price point shouldn’t inspire too much confidence on that front. Nor do we know, frankly, whether Ford can pull it off: When the automaker announced its first electric truck, the F-150 Lightning, in 2021, it claimed a price point of less than $40,000. Eighteen months of inflation later, it actually sold them for closer to $55,000 — and it still lost money on every EV that it made. Fixing the latter problem is part of why the skunkworks exists in the first place, and Ford now has an additional half-decade of experience making EVs. But consumers hoping for a miraculously priced electric pickup from the Blue Oval have been burned before.
If the Fathom disappoints, though, then consumers will soon have other options. The American car market is about to be deluged with sporty, compact pickup trucks — a welcome change from just a few years ago, when the segment was almost entirely dominated by mid-size and half-ton models. The Jeff Bezos-backed startup Slate will start delivering two-door, all-electric pickups starting at $25,000 at the end of this year. The automaker Stellantis, which owns the Dodge and Jeep brands, says it wants to bring another compact pickup — it’s almost more of a ute — called the Rampage to North America soon.
That’s welcome news for me — I love these little trucks — but I’m a little worried I’ll be outside my pickup-buying years by the time they actually make it to market. In the meantime, I’ll keep you posted on other updates about the Fathom. Will “sea nymphs hourly ring its knell”? No, but it will have Apple CarPlay and Android Auto.
The company confirmed its plans to market research company Cleanview.
The data center buildout has hit a new inflection point. It has long been true that artificial intelligence is fueling climate change by driving up power demand; more recently, tech companies have started directly financing new natural gas plants in their quest for AI glory. Now one is backing the biggest fossil fuel-fired power plant ever to exist in the United States — exclusively to power an AI data center complex.
That company is Amazon, according to the market research company Cleanview, which reported on Friday that the tech giant is building an AI data center campus in Texas powered by an up to 7.65-gigawatt off-grid natural gas plant.
That’s larger than any other power plant in the country — fossil or otherwise. The next biggest plant is the Grand Coulee hydroelectric plant in Washington State, at 7 gigawatts, followed by Arizona’s 4-gigawatt Palo Verde nuclear plant, and the West Count Energy Center, a 3.7-gigawatt natural gas plant in Florida.
The new power plant’s developer, Pacifico Energy, announced in January that it had secured permits from Texas regulators for the project, dubbed “GW Ranch.” The site is also permitted for up to 750 megawatts of solar and 1.8 gigawatts of battery energy storage.
It was not clear who the customer for all this energy would be until earlier this week, when Cleanview uncovered construction permits Amazon filed showing that the company owned the GW Ranch site. The company confirmed to Cleanview that it acquired the site and planned to buy power from Pacifico’s plant.
Not only will this natural gas plant be larger than the one in Florida, it will also use far less efficient technology. Pacifico’s permit says it plans to build 35 “simple cycle” generating units, which are typically installed in rarely-used peaker power plants and waste a lot more fuel potential than the modern “combined cycle” natural gas plants that serve as baseload power for the grid today. These more efficient turbines are essentially on backorder for years, and power-hungry developers have increasingly turned to the simpler versions as a quick fix as they race to bring facilities online.
According to its permit, the GW Ranch plant is allowed to emit as much as 33 million tons of CO2 per year. That’s twice as much as the most-polluting power plant in the country, the James H. Miller Jr. coal plant in Alabama, emitted in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available.
In a statement to Cleanview, an Amazon spokesperson said the company “believes in paying the full costs of powering our operations,” and that this Texas project “does just that: it’s powered by new on-site generation that won’t raise electricity costs for Texas families and designed to transition to grid-connected service as interconnection timelines allow.”
Some researchers disagree on that point, however. In an opinion piece for Utility Dive, Energy Innovation director Jeffrey Rissman and senior fellow Eric Gimon argue that the proliferation of off-grid natural gas generation for data centers will increase costs for regular people more than if the data centers connected to the grid, because they will be competing with utility companies for gas supply. “Data centers can buy gas in bulk and sign long-term contracts (as we’ve seen in Texas, Pennsylvania and New Mexico), giving them access to cheap gas, even if this unfairly drives up prices for everyone else,” they write.
Jane Flegal, a senior fellow at the Searchlight Institute, has also argued that building off-grid natural gas plants to serve data centers locks in emissions for decades because the plants don’t face competitive pressure from other resources. When a new natural gas plant is hooked up to the grid, by contrast, there’s a far greater chance that cheaper, cleaner resources will displace its generation over time.
The Rhodium Group recently developed a scoring system to help investors differentiate between projects that are likely to accelerate the energy transition, those that will have little effect one way or the other, and those that will actively slow it down. They used it to assess options for powering data centers, and found that off grid natural gas plants scored the worst, falling at the bottom of the latter category.
Regardless, Amazon still, somehow, asserts that it is committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2040.