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On stronger uranium, Elon Musk’s big gamble, and Japan’s offshore headwinds

Current conditions: A warm front coming from the Southwest is raising temperatures up to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average across the Upper Midwest • A heat wave nearly 200 miles north of Montreal in La Tuque, Quebec, is sending temperatures to nearly 80 degrees today • Typhoon Matmo has made landfall in southern China, forcing thousands to evacuate amid peak holiday season.
The United States’ beleaguered offshore-wind industry has found a new ally in its effort to fend off President Donald Trump’s assault: Big Oil. On Sunday, the Financial Times published an interview with Shell’s top executive in the U.S., in which she called the administration’s decision to halt permitting on seaborne turbines “very damaging” to investment and warned that a future Democratic president could use the precedent Trump set to attack the oil and gas industry. “However far the pendulum swings one way, it’s likely that it’s going to swing just as far the other way,” Colette Hirstius, president of Shell USA, told the newspaper when asked about the Trump administration’s stop-work orders on offshore wind farms. “I certainly would like to see those projects that have been permitted in the past continue to be developed. Similarly, if you think of the business I run offshore [Gulf of Mexico], that type of permitting uncertainty has been utilized to undermine the permits that we have in the past — and that’s equally as damaging.”
As I reported last month in this newsletter, a federal judge blocked Trump’s stop-work order on the 80% complete wind farm off Rhode Island’s coast. But the administration’s multi-agency onslaught against the offshore wind industry, which Heatmap’s Jael Holzman called a “total war,” is already taking a toll. Danish wind giant Orsted, for example, was forced to raise money via an unusual offering of new shares — which it then sold at a nearly 70% discount.
The Trump administration said Friday it would delay $2.1 billion in funding for transit projects in Chicago amid negotiations with Democrats in Congress to approve a federal budget. The move comes after Russ Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, announced cuts to major New York City infrastructure projects, in what Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin interpreted as Trump’s “seeking retribution from New Yorkers” for the ongoing government shutdown, since Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries both hail from the city.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, is withholding more than $300 million in emergency preparedness grants from states until they can prove that the population estimates used to calculate the funding awards do not include people who have been deported as part of the administration’s immigration crackdown. A group representing state emergency management agencies called the move “a never-before-seen provision” that amounts to “further delaying resources intended to strengthen disaster preparedness and emergency response,” The New York Times reported Friday.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave fuel giant Urenco’s U.S. subsidiary the green light last week to produce reactor pellets enriched with up to double the normal concentration of uranium-235. This past spring, the utility giant Southern Company made history by loading one of the older reactors at the nation’s most powerful nuclear station in Georgia with what’s known as LEU+, a version of low-enriched uranium that goes beyond the roughly 5% enrichment limit regulators typically set for the fuel. Uranium enriched up to 10% with U-235, the fissile isotope that can produce energy through atom-splitting, leaves behind less waste and can keep a reactor going for longer. In a press release, Urenco said the federal permit to produce LEU+ at its Eunice plant in New Mexico “will create new opportunities for the current U.S. reactor fleet by allowing for longer operating cycles and fewer refueling outages.”
Elon Musk will need to spend at least $18 billion to buy roughly 300,000 more Nvidia microchips to complete his sprawling Memphis data center complex, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. The project, called Colossus, has a colossal appetite for electricity. In July, Musk bought a former gas plant in Mississippi. In August, green groups accused xAI of violating federal air pollution rules with its use of gas-fired turbines to power its servers. The federally owned Tennessee Valley Authority’s aggressive push to build more nuclear reactors is often discussed as a means of supplying Musk’s demand with cleaner power, but those projects are still years away from producing electrons.
Over the course of one year, Musk’s xAI has surged to become the second-largest taxpayer in the Tennessee county, after FedEx, as the company burns through cash at what the newspaper called “a breakneck clip.” Earlier this year, xAI raised $10 billion through a combination of debt and equity, and its billionaire founder has turned to his privately held SpaceX to chip in $2 billion. “In typical xAI and Elon fashion, the company’s future is highly unpredictable,” Dylan Patel, chief executive of the semiconductor and artificial intelligence research firm SemiAnalysis, told the Journal. “Elon will do everything he can to not lose to Sam Altman.” He’s struggling. On Monday morning, Altman’s OpenAI inked a deal to buy chips from AMD, just weeks after signing a $100 billion agreement with Nvidia, The New York Times reported.
Japan last week “delayed indefinitely” an auction to set government funding levels for offshore wind projects in what Bloomberg called “the latest blow to the country’s push to expand renewable energy supplies.” The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry put the auction, which had been scheduled to start on October 14 and run for two weeks, on hold to give officials time to reassess the effects of higher interest rates and rising material costs. In August, Japanese industrial giant Mitsubishi Corp. announced its withdrawal from several projects won via a previous auction, citing escalating construction costs.
Scientists have long wondered when and how otophysans, the supergroup of fish that accounts for two-thirds of all freshwater fish and includes catfish, carps, and tetras, evolved to live outside saltwater oceans. A fossil of a tiny fish found in southwestern Alberta has provided some answers. The four-centimeter specimen from the Late Cretaceous period — between 100.5 million and 66 million years ago, when the iconic Tyrannosaurus Rex lived — showed the distinct first four vertebrae that otophysans evolved to transmit vibrations to the ear from the swim bladder. The discovery of the species, named Acronichthys maccognoi, “fills a gap in our record of the otophysans supergroup,” Neil Banerjee, a Western University scientist and co-author of the study, said in a press release. “It is the oldest North America member of the group and provides incredible data to help document the origin and early evolution of so many freshwater fish living today.”
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Average U.S. gasoline prices have slipped back above $4 a gallon.
A decade ago, the Princeton economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson published a paper about a fact that they called “not nearly as widely known as it should be”: The U.S. economy has done better under Democratic presidents than Republican presidents.
Blinder was not a completely impartial observer — he served on President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, and Clinton later appointed him vice chair of the Federal Reserve — but he and Watson compiled a lengthy list of statistics to back up their claim. The U.S. economy has grown faster, produced more jobs, had a lower unemployment rate, seen higher corporate profits and investment, and experienced better stock market performance under Democrats than Republicans. While the original paper described this divergence from 1947 to 2013, recent research has shown that it held through the subsequent Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.
The only metric where the two parties come close is inflation, but Democrats still seem to have a tiny edge there, even after the Biden-era inflation.
Why? Blinder and Watson found that it didn’t entirely come down to timing. (Other observers have disputed this, arguing that Republicans tend to get elected at the peak of economic booms, while Democrats win during or just after recessions.) Instead, Blinder and Watson found that a few factors — oil shocks, productivity growth, a more favorable international growth environment, and perhaps better consumer confidence — could explain much of the divergence.
Of course, these factors can’t be entirely separated from a president’s record in office. Oil shocks, for example, tend to drag down global growth, which in turn slows the U.S. economy. And as Watson and Blinder write, some of those oil shocks “may have been induced by [American] foreign policy.” By that mechanism, presidential bellicosity in the Middle East can translate into poorer economic outcomes. This belligerence may even be, as the writer Matt Yglesias contended earlier this year, Republican presidents’ “worst economic policy.”
Why am I recounting all this? Because average U.S. gasoline prices have slipped back above $4 a gallon, according to AAA. (As I write, they stand at $4.01.) The collapse of the ceasefire with Iran — and President Trump’s inability to figure out how to end a war he started — are once again driving up fossil fuel prices.
The numbers add up. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress today that the Iran War has cost $37.5 billion so far, but according to a tracker from Brown University researchers, Americans have already paid nearly double that — $71 billion! — on more expensive gasoline and diesel fuel. A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real economic underperformance. That estimate suggests the burden of higher energy prices from the Iran War has wiped out the expected $65 billion consumer boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s expanded tax refunds.
Of course, from a decarbonization perspective, higher gas prices are good, in theory. They encourage people to drive less and to switch to more fuel-efficient — or even fully electrified — vehicles, reducing carbon emissions. (This is part of why I joke about Degrowth Donald, raising fuel prices as he goes.) But short-term oil shocks are the second worst kind of emissions reductions after recessions: They are unlikely to last; they will probably not lead to real decarbonization; and they produce a lot of human misery along the way.
Perhaps this oil spike won’t persist. Perhaps Trump will find a way out of the quagmiring conflict in the Persian Gulf. Perhaps Republican presidential underperformance really does all come down to luck, too. (Or maybe, as a 2020 paper argued, Democratic presidents benefit from a “pre-election growth surge” just before a Republican wins.) But I think it’s worth noting that the recent trickle of news — and the recent and less noticed surge in gas prices — is how an oil interruption results in slower growth overall. If oil shocks really are responsible for GOP presidential underperformance, this is what it would look like.
The irony is that technology finally exists to make the American transportation sector — and the overall economy — less dependent on oil. This technology was developed at the American public’s expense to help manage a scenario much like this one. And the administration has undermined it at almost every opportunity.
The latest forecast from BloombergNEF raises its estimate for AI electricity demand by 83%.
Energy analysts at BloombergNEF predicted last year that U.S. data center electricity demand would reach 106 gigawatts within the next decade. In its latest outlook, released Tuesday, the group increased its forecast by 83%, to 194 gigawatts — enough to light up 150 million homes, or roughly every single household in the country today.
Even that may be a conservative estimate. If data center developers were to max out the total number of the high-powered chips used to train and operate AI models forecast to be delivered by 2035, electricity demand would reach 229 gigawatts.
Over 100 gigawatts of that demand has entered the development pipeline since the beginning of this year, the result of both rising demand for artificial intelligence and shortened construction timelines for data centers. Some developers have oriented their site selection around energy availability, redeveloping brownfield energy generation sites for quick access to electricity and developing relationships with utilities. Others have eschewed grid interconnection entirely and instead relied behind-the-meter power generation.
As Mark Daly, head of technology and innovation at BNEF and a co-author of the report, pointed out to me, a growing share of the project pipeline comes from first-time developers. He and his colleagues project that non-hyperscaler data center capacity will nearly quintuple over the next decade, as hyperscaler capacity almost triples. That could ultimately create pipeline risks, however, as small-scale developers lack the capabilities of more experienced developers to optimize around pre-construction bottlenecks and navigate rapidly growing local opposition. Although local opposition to data centers has become prevalent, historic trends and predictions on how quickly developers are able to navigate hostile environments are built on the proficiency of experienced developers. Because first-time developers may face more challenges, Daly told me that data center projects overall “would see an increase in the number of delays.”
All of this, of course, comes with a big asterisk. The data center sector is rapidly evolving, and therefore highly uncertain. Among leading market research firms, BNEF said, there is a 100-gigawatt spread between the lowest and highest predicted electricity demand from data centers in 2030. Driving this spread are differences in assumptions about the average development timeline for a data center project. Daly told me that BNEF’s “project-based estimate is middle-of-the-road to bearish compared to other outlooks,” but also acknowledged that the fickle nature of local opposition on development timelines may place more constraints on future data center development than currently modeled.
No matter which prediction turns out to be most accurate, hourly U.S. electricity demand will come under intensifying pressure. BNEF predicts that average hourly U.S. electricity demand from AI workloads will grow five-fold over next nine years, reaching 120 gigawatts by 2035. That will put data centers at 12% of total electricity consumption on average by 2030, and 20% in 2035, up from 5% in 2025, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. This will put particular strain on electricity prices in markets like the Mid-Atlantic’s PJM, where data centers already comprise nearly a third of electricity consumption, and Texas’ ERCOT, where data centers currently consume a fifth of the market’s electricity.
Even the most conservative bet on future data center electricity demand is a scenario we’re not prepared for. If the Electric Power Research Institute’s prediction that just 56 gigawatts of new data center capacity will be up and running by 2030 — the lowest estimate BNEF cited — that would still consume the equivalent of Sweden’s total energy supply. Absent investments from utilities into grid resilience and intensive permitting reform to speed up renewable energy siting and development, PJM and ERCOT customers will not be the only ones feeling a serious squeeze in their wallets when their monthly utility bills arrive.
Current conditions: Tropical Depression Two strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha yesterday, recycling the name of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season’s first major storm • Floods from the monsoon season killed at least four people in Vietnam and left as many missing • Lightning in Utah sparked the state’s latest wildfire, the Meeks Fire, near the Strawberry Reservoir.
President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again feud with America’s northern neighbor is, as of Monday, back on again. The White House imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, accusing the nation’s geographically nearest ally and closest cultural bedfellow of unfairly discriminating against American automotives, alcohol, and dairy products. The move threatens to unleash what the Associated Press called “a new wave of economic chaos, with risks of higher inflation and further fraying of relations between two nations that had been closely woven together before Trump’s return” to office.
In its announcement, the Trump administration said the new tariffs would “apply to all covered goods regardless of whether a good originates under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement,” referring to the Trump-negotiated North American free trade agreement, which the U.S. opted this month not to renew. This struck my colleague Robinson Meyer as ominous. “If the White House now thinks it can levy taxes despite that pact,” he wrote in yesterday’s Heatmap Daily newsletter, “then the risks for Ford, General Motors, and their suppliers have increased.”
Perhaps the only thing growing faster than voters’ antipathy toward data centers is the market’s desire for more of them. Demand for data centers is ballooning at such a rapid clip that BloombergNEF just raised its total forecast for 2035 by a jaw-dropping 83%. The latest data outlining the best-case scenario from the energy consultancy, released Tuesday morning, shows the total installed capacity of U.S. data centers reaching 194 gigawatts in the next nine years. The surge reflects how quickly new server farms are flowing into the project pipeline. In a bid to hedge against the continued expansion, BNEF created a new scenario based on the implied power demand of forecast shipments of microchips for AI computers up to 2033. This scenario implies an even greater need for power: 229 gigawatts of demand from data centers in just the next seven years. And that doesn’t count the continued growth of demand from data centers carrying out non-AI functions, such as traditional cloud computing workloads. This comes as the latest Heatmap Pro polling shows that seven in 10 Americans now oppose data centers in their backyard, a marked shift from last September, when the same survey showed voters evenly split in support and opposition.
That ballooning demand is already showing up in power markets. Of the $16.4 billion in charges from PJM Interconnection’s most recent capacity auction, $6.3 billion — some 38% — stems from data centers. That’s what Joseph Bowring, president of PJM’s independent market monitor Monitoring Analytics, told Utility Dive last week. In the last four base capacity auctions the nation’s largest grid operator held, 46% of capacity charges were driven by data centers. “PJM is continuing to act like it’s business as usual,” Bowring told the trade publication Friday. “You have to open your eyes and recognize that it is really a paradigm shift, and failing to do that imposes costs on other customers.”

On a logical level, it’s a simple supply and demand problem. The supply of electricity is not growing as quickly as demand, all while the Trump administration eliminates subsidies that once buoyed investments in new supply. As a result, corporate electricity deals look poised to increase in price. But not for every generating source. New estimates from LevelTen, a marketplace for power purchase agreements, found that solar PPAs were 5% cheaper in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. In a piece by my colleague Matthew Zeitlin, LevelTen attributed the decline to an especially steep drop in prices in California’s electricity market. Excluding CAISO, solar PPA prices nationwide dropped slightly less than 2%. While hyperscalers are still buying solar, LevelTen found that commercial and industrial buyers are pulling back, creating a “continued softening in the market’s buy-side.” “We saw a lot less corporate energy buyers in the space in 2025 — 40% less — and that is just due to the increase of hyperscalers and data centers getting projects and snapping them up quickly,” Sarah Wolf, LevelTen’s director of North American transactions, told Matthew.
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Ah, Germany. The land of the Autobahn. Diesel-powered industry. The purring engines of BMWs, Porsches, and Mercedes-Benzes. The nation’s automotive might makes its latest milestone particularly important: Electric vehicles just outsold gas and diesel cars for the first time. New data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority shows that Germans registered 84,057 new electric vehicles in June, a more than 78% year-over-year increase. Traditional hybrids, meanwhile, saw 83,315 registrations, followed by gasoline-powered cars with 60,796, diesel with 33,862, and plug-in hybrids with 32,212. “The automotive history books will need a new page sooner rather than later, after electric cars outsold every other fuel type in Germany for the first time,” InsideEVs reporter Iulian Dnistran wrote. “It’s a huge shift in Europe’s biggest car market, which has traditionally been associated with diesel-powered cars that could travel hundreds of miles at highway speeds without breaking a sweat.” The Tesla Model Y was by far the best-selling EV in Germany, with nearly twice as many registrations as the No. 2 vehicle, the Volkswagen ID.3.
Putting on my Mesopotamian metal merchant hat again: Copper prices are back up. The price of the metal needed for virtually all electrical infrastructure rose 1.3% to just under $14,000 per metric ton, according to Mining.com. The price ultimately hovered at the red metal’s record set in early June. The spike stems from data showing rising tightness in the Chinese market, namely a hike in the premium buyers will pay in Shanghai for shipments of the metal. The price hiked further after a series of storms halted production in Chile for a few days.
While the West dithers on hydrogen, China is making huge strides. It already may be too late to catch up to Beijing on manufacturing the key machinery needed to produce the zero-carbon fuel. The latest data point, via Hydrogen Insight: China just shipped its largest electrolyzer order yet to Europe, via Romania.