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On permitting reform optimism, GM layoffs, and LA’s H2 conversion

Hurricane Melissa made landfall over Cuba with winds raging up to 120 miles per hour | If the Category 5 storm veers westward as it heads north, Melissa will bring roiling seas to Atlantic Canada; if it veers eastward, it will bring rain to the United Kingdom | Heavy snowfall in Tibet forced Chinese authorities to shut down access to Mount Everest.

China’s commerce ministry promised to suspend its latest export restrictions on rare earths for at least a year as part of a trade truce President Donald Trump brokered with President Xi Jinping. Under rules Beijing issued on October 8, Chinese companies were required to obtain the ministry’s permission before exporting equipment to process ore and technology for mining and refining rare earths, magnets made from the metals, and components for electric vehicle battery manufacturing. That doesn’t mean Beijing is dialing back all its restrictions on rare earths, over which China controls roughly 90% of the world’s refining capacity. “Importantly, China’s commerce ministry today made no mention of suspending its April 4 regulations, which require export licenses for seven kinds of rare earths and magnets made from them,” The New York Times’ Beijing bureau chief, Keith Bradsher, wrote Thursday morning. “The April rules continue to disrupt production at the many factories in the United States and Europe that need Chinese materials.”
That’s bad news for Western rare earth companies whose stocks have been on a tear since China announced the latest export controls. But it’s good news for clean-energy companies who need access to the minerals — and not their only cause for optimism this morning. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the cost of borrowing down to its lowest level in three years. The move came amid a flurry of economic uncertainty from the United States’ ongoing trade conflicts, accusations from the Trump administration’s over jobs and inflation reports, and the ongoing government shutdown. For the first time since 2019, two Fed officials dissented over the rate cut decision — one who wanted a larger, half-point cut, and the other who called for holding steady at the current level. The political upheaval aside, any cut is good news for renewable energy developers. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote after last month’s quarter-point cut, the move may “provide some relief to renewables developers and investors, who are especially sensitive to financing costs.” But it still “may not be enough” to erase the challenges from higher tariffs.
On Wednesday, General Motors pinkslipped more than 3,400 workers who build electric vehicles and batteries as the company “rapidly adjusts to new policy under President Donald Trump and sluggish interest among U.S. buyers,” The Detroit News reported. The automaker’s Detroit-area all-electric assembly plant, called Factory Zero, will be the hardest hit, with 1,200 cuts.
GM had emerged this year as the best-selling electric vehicle maker in the country, with record sales in the most recent quarter. By eliminating the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles last month as part of his One Big Beautiful Bill Act, however, Trump cost GM “1.6 billion,” as Andrew Moseman wrote last week in Heatmap.
Just over a week ago, as I wrote here, Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse warned that his vote on the bipartisan permitting reform ideas he helped put forward depended on the Trump administration easing up on what we’ve frequently called in this newsletter the “total war on wind.” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum balked at the idea. And yet, talks seem to be progressing. On Wednesday, E&E News reported that Whitehouse, the top Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee and a longstanding climate hawk, said talks were "pretty constant right now” and that the Senate planned to release a framework by the end of the year. He added that “there’s good faith on all four corners, referring to Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican, Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee, a Utah Republican, and ranking member Martin Heinrich, a New Mexico Democrat. “I don’t think we necessarily have to be down to legislative language, but it has to be clear enough to where we’re going so our colleagues have a chance to look at it and kick the tires and see what their concerns are.”
Kentucky is reeling from the looming halt to federal food stamps. Now the Trump administration wants to let the nation’s biggest grid operator charge Kentuckians to keep aging fossil fuel stations open in other states? No way, say one of the state’s biggest utilities and its attorney general. As Utility Dive reported, East Kentucky Power Cooperative, which serves nearly a quarter of the state’s ratepayers, and Attorney General Russell Coleman are challenging the PJM Interconnection’s plan to make utilities across its system pay for the Department of Energy’s emergency orders to keep coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants set to close this year open past their expiry dates. Much like the coal plant the agency ordered to stay open in Michigan, the Energy Department recently directed utilities in the PJM service area to keep two gas- and oil-fired units online near Philadelphia and a 400-megawatt oil-fired plant going near Baltimore. In August, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected East Kentucky Power Cooperative’s arguments against having to pay for PJM’s overall costs. But now the utility and the attorney general, a Republican, are fighting back against the latest filings.
Elsewhere in the PJM territory, chip giant Nvidia is investing in a data center built to smooth out power use as demand for artificial intelligence surges. The project, announced in Axios, is “the first commercial rollout of software that adjusts energy draw in real time.” Nvidia is set to deploy grid-regulating software by the startup Emerald AI at a server farm under construction in Virginia. Once completed, the facility will be “the first built to a new industry-wide certification on flexible power.”
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power board voted unanimously to approve a contentious plan for an $800 million conversion of two units at the Scattergood Generating Station. The 3 to 0 decision to sign off on the plant’s environmental impact report clears the way for the city’s largest gas-fired plant to burn both natural gas and hydrogen. While the regulators said the plan was in line with the city’s goal of running on 100% renewables by 2035, since green hydrogen is made with clean electricity, opponents told the Los Angeles Times that the project would prolong the use of fossil fuels in the city and contribute to local pollution from nitrogen oxides.
If successful, the conversion will be one of the country’s biggest experiments in swapping gas for hydrogen. On Long Island in New York, utility giant National Grid announced a plan in August to install the world’s first linear generator that will run entirely on green hydrogen. Yet the efforts come as the Trump administration has eliminated federal funding for two of the seven regional hydrogen hubs set up under the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that were specifically designed to commercialize green hydrogen. And now, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, a list of rumored cuts that could come once the government shutdown ends puts the other five hubs on the chopping block.
Artificial intelligence is starting to decode the language of whales. Now biologist David Gruber of the Cetacean Translation Initiative, who has spent decades trying to understand marine life, said that the work his research outfit is doing to detect patterns in whale songs could “dramatically strengthen legal protections for nonhuman life,” Inside Climate News reported. Already, Gruber’s work has uncovered a sperm whale “alphabet,” finding that click patterns shift with conversational context, and discovered that whales even have dialects with pods from different parts of the ocean “vocalizing as differently as a New Yorker and a Texan.”
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The spinoff of Lawrence Livermore National Lab has a new 10-point plan to get onto the grid by the 2030s.
One of fusion energy’s newest startups, Inertia Enterprises, is betting that the fastest route to commercial fusion runs through one of the field’s oldest ideas. The company, which raised a $450 million Series A earlier this year, plans to build a power plant based on the laser-driven fusion system pioneered at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s — the only tech yet to have produced more energy from a fusion reaction than it took to initiate it. Now, Inertia has shared its commercialization roadmap exclusively with Heatmap, detailing the 10 near-term capabilities it must demonstrate before this landmark experiment can become a grid-scale power plant by the mid-2030s.
The roadmap offers a route from the national lab’s impressive but commercially impractical fusion demonstrations to an economical power plant capable of producing electricity for the grid. At its core are a set of milestones — mostly aimed at developing cheap, mass-manufacturable components — that Inertia says it must clear before those individual systems can be integrated into a working plant. This road is not necessarily linear, however, as various teams will likely be working on many of these goals simultaneously.
At least the physics of Inertia’s approach are already proven, the startup’s CEO Jeff Lawson told me, pointing to the fusion experiments at Lawrence Livermore’s National Ignition Facility as a proof-of-concept. The lab’s demonstration of net energy gain caps more than six decades and $30 billion (in 2026 dollars) of U.S. fusion research. The remaining challenges, he argued, are all engineering-related, requiring “elbow grease, hard work, and smart people” rather than breakthroughs in fusion science.
"It seems to us like a startup or a commercial company of any variety should be focused on commercializing a proven scientific result, as opposed to actually trying to demonstrate the basic science to begin with," Lawson told me. Basic science, he argues, is better left to national labs and universities, where researchers can pursue "unbounded problems" that don’t align with the expectations and timelines of venture-backed startups.
Indeed, no fusion startup has yet achieved scientific breakeven, the milestone Lawrence Livermore first hit in 2022, and has since repeated numerous times. But leading players such as Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Helion Energy maintain that it’s only a matter of time before they validate the physics behind their own reactor designs, which they claim will be highly cost-competitive.
Lawson, on the other hand, readily acknowledged that Lawrence Livermore’s tech is uneconomical in its current form. His bet is simply that the more predictable path to a commercial reactor is to drive down the cost of the lab’s validated fusion approach, known as inertial confinement. This system relies on high-powered lasers firing at a millimeter-scale pellet of fusion fuel, compressing it to extreme temperatures and pressures until the atoms fuse. Today, the National Ignition Facility makes each individual fusion target by hand, a workable solution given that it only uses about a dozen per year.
That production model, however, isn’t remotely plausible for a grid-scale power plant. Because each fusion reaction lasts just a fraction of a billionth of a second, a commercial facility must fire its lasers at a fresh target about 10 times per second to generate continuous electricity — requiring the production of hundreds of millions of targets each year.
Scaling production to roughly a million pellets per day and making them inexpensive enough for commercial operation without compromising the strength or precision required for fusion ignition is central to Inertia’s roadmap. That includes goals five, seven, eight and nine — industrializing the manufacturing of the carbon shells that hold the fusion fuel, making the thin films that hold those carbon shells both durable and cheap, scaling up and automating fusion target assembly, and speeding up how fast targets are filled with the requisite deuterium-tritium fuel.
The other central focus of the roadmap is the laser system, which will ultimately consist of 1,000 individual units operating in concert to compress and heat the fusion fuel. Key priorities include reducing the system’s cost (goal two), dramatically increasing its firing cadence (goal three), and bolstering its durability to withstand high-intensity operations (goal four). Goal six also complements these efforts, calling for the development of a control system capable of tracking moving fusion targets to precisely align each laser shot.
Goals one and 10 bookend the journey with some broader milestones. The first focuses on increasing the fusion target’s energy gain — the ratio of fusion energy produced to laser energy delivered — to more than 25 times ignition. Today, the National Ignition Facility’s best-performing laser shot has yielded a gain of just over four times what it took to start the reaction. Goal 10 then zooms out to the ultimate objective: integrating all these technologies into a commercially viable power plant that can deliver either electricity or industrial heat to end customers.
To reach that point, Inertia has embarked on an industrial engineering hiring spree, recruiting folks with experience taking complex hardware systems from prototype to mass production, “not unlike the processes that are used in the semiconductor or consumer electronics world,” Lawson explained. The company has been making progress on its component development goals since the beginning of the year, he told me, and expects to announce the successful demonstration of a few of these milestones in the coming months. Lawson ultimately expects Inertia to complete the core components of its laser and target manufacturing systems by the middle of next year.
The team will spend the next two to three years integrating these individual pieces into two fully operational subsystems, a prototype laser system and a target manufacturing line. Around 2030, the company will begin combining those subsystems into a first-of-a-kind fusion power plant, which will also serve as the proving ground for the target chamber, tritium fuel breeding system, and power conversion system that turns fusion heat into electricity. By the middle of the next decade, Inertia aims to be generating power from this first plant, setting the stage for the company to build and connect additional grid-scale commercial power plants.
There are plenty of engineering trade-offs that the company will have to solve for. Take the decision around how to size the target chamber, for example. “If you make it bigger, your walls have an easier time and survive longer, but it’s more expensive. If you make it smaller, your walls have a tougher time because they’re closer to all the heat and energy that the fusion reaction is creating, but now your power plant costs less to build.”
But to Lawson, this represents exactly the type of problem Inertia was built to solve: complex engineering issues that come to the fore once scientists have demonstrated the fundamental physics are sound. He thinks other fusion companies may someday reach this stage, as well — though he’s unwilling to hazard a guess on exactly what approach or startup is best positioned to do so.
“There have been generations of scientists who’ve made their predictions about fusion energy and gotten it wrong,” he told me. “I’m not going to pretend to be smarter than them. All I’m here to say is, just knowing that one did work, we can commercialize it.”