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On permitting reform optimism, GM layoffs, and LA’s H2 conversion

Hurricane Melissa made landfall over Cuba with winds raging up to 120 miles per hour | If the Category 5 storm veers westward as it heads north, Melissa will bring roiling seas to Atlantic Canada; if it veers eastward, it will bring rain to the United Kingdom | Heavy snowfall in Tibet forced Chinese authorities to shut down access to Mount Everest.

China’s commerce ministry promised to suspend its latest export restrictions on rare earths for at least a year as part of a trade truce President Donald Trump brokered with President Xi Jinping. Under rules Beijing issued on October 8, Chinese companies were required to obtain the ministry’s permission before exporting equipment to process ore and technology for mining and refining rare earths, magnets made from the metals, and components for electric vehicle battery manufacturing. That doesn’t mean Beijing is dialing back all its restrictions on rare earths, over which China controls roughly 90% of the world’s refining capacity. “Importantly, China’s commerce ministry today made no mention of suspending its April 4 regulations, which require export licenses for seven kinds of rare earths and magnets made from them,” The New York Times’ Beijing bureau chief, Keith Bradsher, wrote Thursday morning. “The April rules continue to disrupt production at the many factories in the United States and Europe that need Chinese materials.”
That’s bad news for Western rare earth companies whose stocks have been on a tear since China announced the latest export controls. But it’s good news for clean-energy companies who need access to the minerals — and not their only cause for optimism this morning. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the cost of borrowing down to its lowest level in three years. The move came amid a flurry of economic uncertainty from the United States’ ongoing trade conflicts, accusations from the Trump administration’s over jobs and inflation reports, and the ongoing government shutdown. For the first time since 2019, two Fed officials dissented over the rate cut decision — one who wanted a larger, half-point cut, and the other who called for holding steady at the current level. The political upheaval aside, any cut is good news for renewable energy developers. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote after last month’s quarter-point cut, the move may “provide some relief to renewables developers and investors, who are especially sensitive to financing costs.” But it still “may not be enough” to erase the challenges from higher tariffs.
On Wednesday, General Motors pinkslipped more than 3,400 workers who build electric vehicles and batteries as the company “rapidly adjusts to new policy under President Donald Trump and sluggish interest among U.S. buyers,” The Detroit News reported. The automaker’s Detroit-area all-electric assembly plant, called Factory Zero, will be the hardest hit, with 1,200 cuts.
GM had emerged this year as the best-selling electric vehicle maker in the country, with record sales in the most recent quarter. By eliminating the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles last month as part of his One Big Beautiful Bill Act, however, Trump cost GM “1.6 billion,” as Andrew Moseman wrote last week in Heatmap.
Just over a week ago, as I wrote here, Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse warned that his vote on the bipartisan permitting reform ideas he helped put forward depended on the Trump administration easing up on what we’ve frequently called in this newsletter the “total war on wind.” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum balked at the idea. And yet, talks seem to be progressing. On Wednesday, E&E News reported that Whitehouse, the top Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee and a longstanding climate hawk, said talks were "pretty constant right now” and that the Senate planned to release a framework by the end of the year. He added that “there’s good faith on all four corners, referring to Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican, Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee, a Utah Republican, and ranking member Martin Heinrich, a New Mexico Democrat. “I don’t think we necessarily have to be down to legislative language, but it has to be clear enough to where we’re going so our colleagues have a chance to look at it and kick the tires and see what their concerns are.”
Kentucky is reeling from the looming halt to federal food stamps. Now the Trump administration wants to let the nation’s biggest grid operator charge Kentuckians to keep aging fossil fuel stations open in other states? No way, say one of the state’s biggest utilities and its attorney general. As Utility Dive reported, East Kentucky Power Cooperative, which serves nearly a quarter of the state’s ratepayers, and Attorney General Russell Coleman are challenging the PJM Interconnection’s plan to make utilities across its system pay for the Department of Energy’s emergency orders to keep coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants set to close this year open past their expiry dates. Much like the coal plant the agency ordered to stay open in Michigan, the Energy Department recently directed utilities in the PJM service area to keep two gas- and oil-fired units online near Philadelphia and a 400-megawatt oil-fired plant going near Baltimore. In August, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected East Kentucky Power Cooperative’s arguments against having to pay for PJM’s overall costs. But now the utility and the attorney general, a Republican, are fighting back against the latest filings.
Elsewhere in the PJM territory, chip giant Nvidia is investing in a data center built to smooth out power use as demand for artificial intelligence surges. The project, announced in Axios, is “the first commercial rollout of software that adjusts energy draw in real time.” Nvidia is set to deploy grid-regulating software by the startup Emerald AI at a server farm under construction in Virginia. Once completed, the facility will be “the first built to a new industry-wide certification on flexible power.”
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power board voted unanimously to approve a contentious plan for an $800 million conversion of two units at the Scattergood Generating Station. The 3 to 0 decision to sign off on the plant’s environmental impact report clears the way for the city’s largest gas-fired plant to burn both natural gas and hydrogen. While the regulators said the plan was in line with the city’s goal of running on 100% renewables by 2035, since green hydrogen is made with clean electricity, opponents told the Los Angeles Times that the project would prolong the use of fossil fuels in the city and contribute to local pollution from nitrogen oxides.
If successful, the conversion will be one of the country’s biggest experiments in swapping gas for hydrogen. On Long Island in New York, utility giant National Grid announced a plan in August to install the world’s first linear generator that will run entirely on green hydrogen. Yet the efforts come as the Trump administration has eliminated federal funding for two of the seven regional hydrogen hubs set up under the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that were specifically designed to commercialize green hydrogen. And now, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, a list of rumored cuts that could come once the government shutdown ends puts the other five hubs on the chopping block.
Artificial intelligence is starting to decode the language of whales. Now biologist David Gruber of the Cetacean Translation Initiative, who has spent decades trying to understand marine life, said that the work his research outfit is doing to detect patterns in whale songs could “dramatically strengthen legal protections for nonhuman life,” Inside Climate News reported. Already, Gruber’s work has uncovered a sperm whale “alphabet,” finding that click patterns shift with conversational context, and discovered that whales even have dialects with pods from different parts of the ocean “vocalizing as differently as a New Yorker and a Texan.”
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On Taiwan’s LNG investment, Chinese solar job cuts, and molten chloride fast reactors
Current conditions: Temperatures in Washington, D.C., are climbing up to the mid 80s Fahrenheit today before taking a double-digit plunge as cold air blows in this weekend • California’s biggest utility has warned of looming blackouts as the southern part of the state braces for a potential wildfire • Tropical Storm Trudy is strengthening in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico into what could become a major hurricane.
The Houthis sent a clear signal this week: We are coming for Saudi Arabia’s oil industry. Days after striking Riyadh and scaring Western oil executives away from an industry summit in the Saudi capital, the Iran-backed rebels hit the headquarters of the kingdom’s state energy behemoth, Aramco. Official reports on Tuesday initially downplayed the impact on the sweeping complex in Dhahran, in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich east. On Wednesday, however, Reuters reported that the missile attack had caused “extensive damage,” including “with a fire spreading across several floors.” Saudi Arabia has at other points during the conflict after proven resilient. After Houthi missiles pulverized a key node on the East-West Pipeline that serves as the main conduit to get oil from the Persian Gulf coast to the Red Sea shore, crews quickly created a workaround to restore the flow of crude. Following a brief uptick, the prices of Brent crude, the global benchmark, and the U.S.-centric West Texas Intermediate both fell on Wednesday. Maybe not for long: The Houthis vowed yesterday to continue targeting oil facilities.
Since shutting down its nuclear plants, Taiwan has become dependent on natural gas for at least half its electricity generation. But the self-governing island democracy doesn’t drill any of the fuel. It’s dependent on imports at a moment when, thanks to the war in Iran, anyone who isn’t producing their own is looking for a cheap, steady supply of liquified natural gas. Taipei has found a supplier. In a Wednesday post on his Truth Social platform, President Donald Trump said Taiwan agreed to buy 30% of the LNG shipped from the proposed $55 billion megaproject to build a gas pipeline from Alaska’s Arctic coast to an export terminal south of Anchorage. As part of the 20-year deal, Trump said the Taiwanese government would pay $4.4 billion for an equity stake in the project. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs confirmed the deal and said it would work out the details later.
The pledged investment for the long-delayed project comes days after the Environmental Defense Fund released a new analysis showing that utilities and developers are cooling on clean power and once again pumping money into fossil fuel infrastructure at a rate that could see gas and even coal regain “a market share not seen since the early 2010s.” Amid all this investment, the national average retail price of electricity fell year over year from 20 cents per kilowatt-hour in September 2025 to 19.6 cents per kilowatt-hour last month, according to the freshest data on Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub. “Great news, right?” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday. “Not really.” He explains further: “While this is the first year-over-year decline in average prices since September 2023, it’s mostly due to California moving around its Climate Credit to the late summer months of August and September, historically among the highest-demand periods on the grid. The state previously delivered the credits in April and October. But while this is a nice thing for California ratepayers, it does less to tell us about nationwide electricity price trends.”

China’s top five solar manufacturers cut nearly 41,000 jobs last year as Beijing cracks down on the overcapacity that made exports so cheap Europeans started building fences out of panels. A new Reuters analysis of company filing shows that Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei employed 40,589 fewer people than a year earlier. That 21% drop followed a 31% decline last year. The job cuts represent what the newswire called a “paradox,” in that the solar sales are booming as the world seeks alternatives to Middle Eastern hydrocarbons, yet the biggest manufacturers built too many factories and now no one can make any money.
The shift in China comes as the U.S. scrambles to rebuild its solar manufacturing capacity. Tariffs that Trump implemented, former President Joe Biden maintained, and Trump doubled down on have already set the stage for what my colleague Emily Pontecorvo reported may or may not be a manufacturing resurgence in the U.S. In August, we reported the Department of Commerce’s new trade restrictions were the administration’s lifeline to solar manufacturers that lost a key incentive when federal tax credits went away, taking with them the bonus for buying domestically-produced panels.
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The world has seen experimental reactors that use molten salt as a coolant for a fission reaction fueled by uranium or plutonium. Several startups, including Bill Gates’ TerraPower, are now seeking to commercialize a version of that technology. Recently, the startup partnered with the utility giant Southern Company to examine a whole new possibility: A molten chloride fast reactor that uses liquid salts as both a coolant and a fuel. If that could work, it would be the first in the world. The advantages of the technology, in theory, would be limited enrichment needs, no fuel assemblies of uranium pellets, and a more flexible reactor that can ramp up and down to meet the grid’s needs. On Wednesday, the Department of Energy backed the effort to validate the science behind so-called MCFR reactors. The research will take place at the Idaho National Laboratory and has support from Southern and Core Power, a startup looking to harness fission to power cargo ships.
Is quantum computing a climate technology? Despite overlapping investors, it’s a difficult case to make, my colleague Katie Brigham wrote earlier this year. But the ways in which the technology develops certainly could be a model for other energy breakthroughs. On Wednesday, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unveiled a deal with New York University whereby City Hall will support the construction of a quantum computing lab in exchange for 15% of any proceeds from selling intellectual property developed at the facility. “In the first deal of its kind in NYC history, the public is investing $30 million in a quantum lab — in exchange for three board seats and 15% of the revenue generated from technology it creates,” Lina Khan, the chair of the board of the New York City Economic Development Corporation, wrote in a post on X. “And if any firm coming out of the lab merges, gets acquired, or IPOs, the city gets a payout.”
When the solution to Indonesia’s very modern smog problems was invented, the archipelago nation remained under Dutch colonial rule and the planet was about 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, cooler than it is today. To ease the thick haze in Jakarta and other cities from forest fires the country the country is repurposing a weather-modification technique first invented in the 1940s. Per Bloomberg: “Aircraft will disperse pellets of dry ice above South Sumatra province in an experimental approach that authorities hope will reduce the hazardous smoke that’s blanketed the region for weeks, disrupting economic activity and damaging public health.” The first trial run starts today.
Energy costs remain high — and early voting has begun.
The national average retail price of electricity has fallen year over year from 20 cents per kilowatt-hour in September 2025 to 19.6 cents per kilowatt-hour in September of this year, or about 2%, according to the latest update to Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub.
Great news, right?
Not really.
While this is the first year-over-year decline in average prices since September 2023, it’s mostly due to California moving around its Climate Credit to the late summer months of August and September, historically among the highest-demand periods on the grid. The state previously delivered the credits in April and October.
But while this is a nice thing for California ratepayers, it does less to tell us about nationwide electricity price trends. Excluding the credit, average prices would have been roughly flat, according to the MIT researchers. And even with the credit, bills are still rising year over year, at around $180 per month, up from $173 a year ago (though down from this year’s all-time high of $217 in July). Forty-five states and Washington, D.C., have seen their average bills go up over the last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recently released inflation figures showed electricity prices rising 0.2% in September from August and 4.4% over the last year, while overall prices rose 0.6% and 3.7%, trends largely driven by increases in the price of gasoline.
As we’ve written about several times before, some of the biggest electricity price increases are in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. In New York, prices in September were 31.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, up from 30 cents in August and 27 cents in September of last year.
In Maine, which sits at the end of the sparse New England natural gas network, prices have been rising sharply. In September, prices were just under 40 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared to 37 cents in August and 31 cents a year ago. Maine’s public advocate has blamed years of price hikes on natural gas prices, distribution costs — especially repairing infrastructure damaged by storms —and, to a lesser extent, subsidies for renewables.
Maine is just one of several midterm battlegrounds where energy costs have taken center stage, especially since the war in Iran spiked oil prices.
In Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate by defeating Jon Husted, electricity prices stand at just over 20 cents per kilowatt hour, compared to 18 cents last September, while bills have risen from about $129 a month to $162. Brown leads Husted in the polls by about 4 percentage points, according to Nate Silver’s polling average. Ohio started early voting earlier this month.
Fossil fuels are the real October surprise.
This is Heatmap Daily, an evening news digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.
At this point, the real October surprise may be the lack of one — because little seems set to change in the U.S. energy economy between now and the midterm elections on November 3.
Inflation certainly isn’t budging. Prices rose 3.7% over the past year, and 0.6% in September alone, according to today’s new government inflation report. That reading was hot — a tenth of a percent above what economists expected.
Surging gasoline and especially diesel fuel prices were to blame. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% last month, which pushed up prices above the economy: Transportation services, a category that includes airfare and Uber rides, increased by 0.6%, while food prices rose by 0.6%. (Read my colleague Matthew Zeitlin on how rising diesel costs can jack up food prices.) Staggeringly, fuel oil prices rose 15.3% — an eye-popping reading for a report where figures are usually in the tenth of a percent.
President Trump seems to be running out of time to repair the U.S. energy economy before Americans elect the last Congress of his presidency. His last-minute deal to free up 2.25 millions barrels of oil from Russia this month — with another 11 million or so to come afterward — seems unlikely to lower diesel prices, given that it represents only a few days of U.S. demand. (The deal has already succeeded in undermining Ukraine, however, and led six Republican senators to rebuke him this week.) Meanwhile, Election Day is in 20 days, and Americans are already voting in 20 states.
This is not how the Trump administration was supposed to play out — at least not according to its proponents. Trump in 2024 ran on taming the energy inflation that had plagued President Biden’s last two years in office. He vowed to “drill, baby, drill” and end Biden’s ambitious climate policies, which he called a “Green New Scam.” He even promised to do the bidding of oil company CEOs if they only steered $1 billion to his campaign.
This flagrant offer of quid pro quo may have mortified some in the industry, but it was coherent with the rest of Trump’s pitch: For more than a decade, he has essentially argued that only by surrendering to the fossil fuel industry, by giving oil and gas companies as much regulatory relief as they can stand, can voters finally escape high energy prices. Trump, of course, cemented this pitch in a typically over-the-top and ill-considered proposal, pledging to cut energy prices in half by 2026 or so. That was never going to happen, and its failure to happen has blown up for the president. But the underlying idea was consistent.
The Trump administration has spent the past two years executing this energy agenda. It repealed large swaths of the Inflation Reduction Act, ending incentives to build new solar and wind farms and terminating consumer-side subsidies for electric vehicles. It rolled back fines and rules restricting wasteful methane pollution. It has effectively eliminated fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks. And it has declared an extralegal war on the wind industry.
And what has happened? Prices have gone up anyway. Gasoline and diesel are more expensive on an inflation-adjusted basis than they were on the day Trump took office. Now, you might argue that this surge is unrelated to the underlying policy, and that gasoline and diesel prices have surged because of the fallout from Trump’s war in Iran — not his domestic energy policy.
But the Iran crisis reveals the problem that Trump would have faced in any event: Oil prices are set on the global market, and neither the domestic oil industry nor the federal government possess the capacity to swing America’s production or consumption enough to affect those prices. Trump’s presidency, in other words, would always have been held hostage by the global energy markets — just as Biden’s was before him.
There is a deeper lesson here: The fossil fuel industry cannot guarantee low prices for consumers in the enduring way that Trump has promised — even if you give it all the regulatory relief that it demands. Nor can the oil, gasoline, and diesel markets deliver the deep energy security or economic stability that American policymakers want — or that voters desire. Trump’s war on Iran has continually been undermined by the American economy’s exposure to crude oil prices; the president is now compromising Ukraine’s defense in order to secure a dubiously small amount of crude. Fossil fuels remain America’s soft underbelly. Policymakers will keep getting poked until the country diversifies its energy system.