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On Trump’s electricity insecurity, Rivan’s robots, and the European grid

Current conditions: A series of clipper storms blowing southeastward from Alberta are set to deliver the first measurable amount of snow to the Interstate 95 corridor in the coming days • Planes, trains, and ferries are facing cancellations in Scotland as Storm Bram makes landfall with 70-mile-per-hour winds • In India’s northern Punjab region, a cold snap is creating such a dense fog that travel is being disrupted in some areas.
For the past few days, I have written about alarming forecasts of flooding in the Pacific Northwest as back-to-back atmospheric rivers deluged the region. On Thursday, it became clear just how severe the crisis is becoming, as Washington State issued an urgent order to evacuate more than 100,000 residents, according to The New York Times. Several days of rain have swollen rivers and streams in the Skagit Valley, roughly halfway between Seattle and the Canadian border, putting everyone in the area within a 100-year flood plain. “You can stand downtown here and just see whole Doug firs and cottonwood trees coming down the river, like a freight train,” James Eichner, who fled floodwaters near the Snohomish River farm where he works, told the newspaper. “It’s just a giant steamroller.”
While it’s still difficult to link specific weather events to climate change, federal researchers have connected intensified atmospheric rivers to the planet’s rising temperatures. But the record heat the world has experienced over the past three years isn’t necessarily due entirely to global warming. In a new analysis published in Carbon Brief, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather found that the main culprits turn out to be a combination of El Niño effects, declining sulfur emissions from Chinese coal plants and global shipping no longer masking warming, and stronger than usual solar radiation.

China’s success at building new power plants has earned the country the title of the world’s first “electrostate,” a play on the old petrostate moniker afforded to nations where vast domestic oil and gas resources dominate the economy and politics. In the People’s Republic, blue-gray solar panels glaze entire mountainsides, nuclear reactors come online faster than the U.S. can pick a site for one, and wind turbines spring from the ground. In America, meanwhile, power-thirsty data centers are forced to jury-rig on-site power plants made of old jet engines. But that’s not how President Donald Trump sees it. In response to a Wall Street Journal story outlining how China’s vast grid is boosting Beijing’s artificial intelligence ambitions, Trump posted on his Truth Social website that the newspaper was “WRONG.” He went on: “Every AI plant being built in the United States is building its own Electric Generating Facilities. The approvals are being given carefully, but very quickly, a matter of weeks. Any excess Electricity being produced is going to our Electric Grid, which is being strengthened, and expanded, for other purposes than AI, like never before. In other words, AI has far more Electricity than they will ever need.”
The outburst came as Trump’s approval ratings on the economy sunk to the lowest point ever recorded by an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll taken while he’s been in office. Just 31% of U.S. adults now approve of how Trump is handling the economy, down from 40% in March.
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Like Tesla, electric vehicle giant Rivian is making a bet on self-driving cars. On Thursday, the company outlined what TechCrunch called “an ambitious effort that includes new hardware, including lidar and custom silicon, and eventually, a potential entry into the self-driving ride-hail market.” The automaker made the announcements at its inaugural “Autonomy & AI Day” event in Palo Alto, where the publication said the company sent “a very public signal to shareholders that it’s keeping pace, or even exceeding, the automated-driving capabilities of industry rivals like Tesla, Ford, General Motors, as well as automakers from Europe and China.”
It’s just the latest extension of Rivian’s empire. In March, Heatmap’s Katie Brigham reported that the company spun off its micromobility division. The startup, named Also, announced a $105 million Series B round on the same day it went independent.
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The Republican-led House of Representatives voted largely along partisan lines to pass three bills Thursday designed to speed up permitting for energy projects. While Politico noted the bills are unlikely to be taken up in the Senate, the package managed to pick up six Democrats’ votes in favor of a provision to ease Section 401 Clean Water Act rules and boost pipeline construction. Earlier this week, a bipartisan bill to modernize the federal permitting process and prepare to digitize the experience passed unanimously.
Heatmap’s Jael Holzman broke the news this week that the top three Senate Democrats focused on climate issues oppose another permitting reform bill with bipartisan support, the SPEED Act, on the grounds that it did too little to clear bottlenecks for renewables and transmission lines. For those hoping a long-anticipated bipartisan legislative push may finally come to fruition before tax credits expire for solar and wind projects, at least one thing is clear: A negotiation is underway.
The European Commission proposed what PV Tech called a “two-pronged approach to improving Europe’s energy infrastructure.” The plan aims to speed up and make more transparent the process for permitting projects related to the grid. The proposal also calls for establishing eight new “energy highways” to deliver transmission capacity to areas of “strategic importance” in the 27-nation bloc. The first part, called the “European Grids Package,” calls for creating the Trans-European Network for Energy, or TEN-E, that was first proposed in 2013. The report also noted how far behind Europe was on its previous targets. Despite a goal of 88 gigawatts of new cross-border electricity transmission capacity by 2030, the EU is on pace to build just 41 gigawatts.
The move comes days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen notched a victory for her deregulatory agenda when her center-right coalition in the European Parliament broke taboos and teamed up with the far-right to pass legislation easing environmental rules on most companies. As a result of the change, as I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter, 80% of businesses operating in the EU will no longer have to track and report their own environmental impacts.
Deep in the cloud forests of the Serra do Quiriri mountains in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest, scientists discovered an entirely new species of frog. Named Brachycephalus lulai, the tiny amphibian has pumpkin-orange skin with green and brown freckles and obsidian eyes. Males max out at a little over 11 millimeters, while females grow nearly 14 millimeters. They are, according to Phys.org, “among the smallest four-legged animals on Earth.” What makes the discovery so interesting is that the researchers identified the so-called “pumpkin toadlet” by its unique mating song, unlike any known species in its genus, which consists of two short bursts of sound, according to their paper in the journal PLOS One.
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The attacks on Iran have not redounded to renewables’ benefit. Here are three reasons why.
The fragility of the global fossil fuel complex has been put on full display. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, causing a shock to oil and natural gas prices, putting fuel supplies from Incheon to Karachi at risk. American drivers are already paying more at the pump, despite the United States’s much-vaunted energy independence. Never has the case for a transition to renewable energy been more urgent, clear, and necessary.
So despite the stock market overall being down, clean energy companies’ shares are soaring, right?
Wrong.
First Solar: down over 1% on the day. Enphase: down over 3%. Sunrun: down almost 8%; Tesla: down around 2.5%.
Why the slump? There are a few big reasons:
Several analysts described the market action today as “risk-off,” where traders sell almost anything to raise cash. Even safe haven assets like U.S. Treasuries sold off earlier today while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
“A lot of things that worked well recently, they’re taking a big beating,” Gautam Jain, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, told me. “It’s mostly risk aversion.”
Several trackers of clean energy stocks, including the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index (down 3% today) or the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (down over 3%) have actually outperformed the broader market so far this year, making them potentially attractive to sell off for cash.
And some clean energy stocks are just volatile and tend to magnify broader market movements. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has a beta — a measure of how a stock’s movements compare with the overall market — higher than 1, which means it has tended to move more than the market up or down.
Then there’s the actual news. After President Trump announced Tuesday afternoon that the United States Development Finance Corporation would be insuring maritime trade “for a very reasonable price,” and that “if necessary” the U.S. would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the overall market picked up slightly and oil prices dropped.
It’s often said that what makes renewables so special is that they don’t rely on fuel. The sun or the wind can’t be trapped in a Middle Eastern strait because insurers refuse to cover the boats it arrives on.
But what renewables do need is cash. The overwhelming share of the lifetime expense of a renewable project is upfront capital expenditure, not ongoing operational expenditures like fuel. This makes renewables very sensitive to interest rates because they rely on borrowed money to get built. If snarled supply chains translate to higher inflation, that could send interest rates higher, or at the very least delay expected interest rate cuts from central banks.
Sustained inflation due to high energy prices “likely pushes interest rate cuts out,” Jain told me, which means higher costs for renewables projects.
While in the long run it may make sense to respond to an oil or natural gas supply shock by diversifying your energy supply into renewables, political leaders often opt to try to maintain stability, even if it’s very expensive.
“The moment you start thinking about energy security, renewables jump up as a priority,” Jain said. “Most countries realize how important it is to be independent of the global supply chain. In the long term it works in favor of renewables. The problem is the short term.”
In the short term, governments often try to mitigate spiking fuel prices by subsidizing fossil fuels and locking in supply contracts to reinforce their countries’ energy supplies. Renewables may thereby lose out on investment that might more logically flow their way.
The other issue is that the same fractured supply chain that drives up oil and gas prices also affects renewables, which are still often dependent on imports for components. “Freight costs go up,” Jain said. “That impacts clean energy industry more.”
As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the Navy would start escorting ships “as soon as possible.”
“It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
A federal court shot down President Trump’s attempt to kill New York City’s congestion pricing program on Tuesday, allowing the city’s $9 toll on cars entering downtown Manhattan during peak hours to remain in effect.
Judge Lewis Liman of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the Trump administration’s termination of the program was illegal, writing, “It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
So concludes a fight that began almost exactly one year ago, just after Trump returned to the White House. On February 19, 2025, the newly minted Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, rescinding the federal government’s approval of the congestion pricing fee. President Trump had expressed concerns about the program, Duffy said, leading his department to review its agreement with the state and determine that the program did not adhere to the federal statute under which it was approved.
Duffy argued that the city was not allowed to cordon off part of the city and not provide any toll-free options for drivers to enter it. He also asserted that the program had to be designed solely to relieve congestion — and that New York’s explicit secondary goal of raising money to improve public transit was a violation.
Trump, meanwhile, likened himself to a monarch who had risen to power just in time to rescue New Yorkers from tyranny. That same day, the White House posted an image to social media of Trump standing in front of the New York City skyline donning a gold crown, with the caption, "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"
New York had only just launched the tolling program a month earlier after nearly 20 years of deliberation — or, as reporter and Hell Gate cofounder Christopher Robbins put it in his account of those years for Heatmap, “procrastination.” The program was supposed to go into effect months earlier before, at the last minute, Hochul tried to delay the program indefinitely, claiming it was too much of a burden on New Yorkers’ wallets. She ultimately allowed congestion pricing to proceed with the fee reduced from $15 during peak hours to $9, and thereafter became one of its champions. The state immediately challenged Duffy’s termination order in court and defied the agency’s instruction to shut down the program, keeping the toll in place for the entirety of the court case.
In May, Judge Liman issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the DOT from terminating the agreement, noting that New York was likely to succeed in demonstrating that Duffy had exceeded his authority in rescinding it.
After the first full year the program was operating, the state reported 27 million fewer vehicles entering lower Manhattan and a 7% boost to transit ridership. Bus speeds were also up, traffic noise complaints were down, and the program raised $550 million in net revenue.
The final court order issued Tuesday rejected Duffy’s initial arguments for terminating the program, as well as additional justifications he supplied later in the case.
“We disagree with the court’s ruling,” a spokesperson for the Transportation Department told me, adding that congestion pricing imposes a “massive tax on every New Yorker” and has “made federally funded roads inaccessible to commuters without providing a toll-free alternative.” The Department is “reviewing all legal options — including an appeal — with the Justice Department,” they said.
Current conditions: A cluster of thunderstorms is moving northeast across the middle of the United States, from San Antonio to Cincinnati • Thailand’s disaster agency has put 62 provinces, including Bangkok, on alert for severe summer storms through the end of the week • The American Samoan capital of Pago Pago is in the midst of days of intense thunderstorms.
We are only four days into the bombing campaign the United States and Israel began Saturday in a bid to topple the Islamic Republic’s regime. Oil prices closed Monday nearly 9% higher than where trading started last Friday. Natural gas prices, meanwhile, spiked by 5% in the U.S. and 45% in Europe after Qatar announced a halt to shipments of liquified natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which tapers at its narrowest point to just 20 miles between the shores of Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It’s a sign that the war “isn’t just an oil story,” Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday. Like any good tale, it has some irony: “The one U.S. natural gas export project scheduled to start up soon is, of all things, a QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil joint venture.” Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer further explored the LNG angle with Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew on the latest episode of Shift Key.
At least for now, the bombing of Iranian nuclear enrichment sites hasn’t led to any detectable increase in radiation levels in countries bordering Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday. That includes the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Tehran research reactor, and other facilities. “So far, no elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels has been detected in countries bordering Iran,” Director General Rafael Grossi said in a statement.
Financial giants are once again buying a utility in a bet on electricity growth. A consortium led by BlackRock subsidiary Global Infrastructure Partners and Swedish private equity heavyweight EQT announced a deal Monday to buy utility giant AES Corp. The acquisition was valued at more than $33 billion and is expected to close by early next year at the latest. “AES is a leader in competitive generation,” Bayo Ogunlesi, the chief executive officer of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, said in a statement. “At a time in which there is a need for significant investments in new capacity in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, especially in the United States of America, we look forward to utilizing GIP’s experience in energy infrastructure investing, as well as our operational capabilities to help accelerate AES’ commitment to serve the market needs for affordable, safe and reliable power.” The move comes almost exactly a year after the infrastructure divisions at Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, bought the Albuquerque-based utility TXNM Energy in an $11.5 billion gamble on surging power demand.
China’s output of solar power surpassed that of wind for the first time last year as cheap panels flooded the market at home and abroad. The country produced nearly 1.2 million gigawatt-hours of electricity from solar power in 2025, up 40% from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg analysis of National Bureau of Statistics data published Saturday. Wind generation increased just 13% to more than 1.1 gigawatt-hours. The solar boom comes as Beijing bolsters spending on green industry across the board. China went from spending virtually nothing on fusion energy development to investing more in one year than the entire rest of the world combined, as I have previously reported. To some, China is — despite its continued heavy use of coal — a climate hero, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham has written.
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Canada and India have a longstanding special friendship on nuclear power. Both countries — two of the juggernauts of the 56-country Commonwealth of Nations — operate fleets that rely heavily on pressurized heavy water reactors, a very different design than the light water reactors that make up the vast majority of the fleets in Europe and the United States. Ottawa helped New Delhi build its first nuclear plants. Now the two countries have renewed their atomic ties in what the BBC called a “landmark” deal Monday. As part of the pact, India signed a nine-year agreement with Canada’s largest uranium miner, Cameco, to supply fuel to New Delhi’s growing fleet of seven nuclear plants. The $1.9 billion deal opens a new market for Canada’s expanding production of uranium ore and gives India, which has long worried about its lack of domestic deposits, a stable supply of fuel.
India, meanwhile, is charging ahead with two new reactors at the Kaiga atomic power station in the southwestern state of Karnataka. The units are set to be IPHWR-700, natively designed pressurized heavy water reactors. Last week, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India poured the first concrete on the new pair of reactors, NucNet reported Monday.
The Spanish refiner Moeve has decided to move forward with an investment into building what Hydrogen Insight called “a scaled-back version” of the first phase of its giant 2-gigawatt Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley project. Even in a less ambitious form, Reuters pegged the total value of the project at $1.2 billion. Meanwhile in the U.S., as I wrote yesterday, is losing major projects right as big production facilities planned before Trump returned to office come online.
Speaking of building, the LEGO Group is investing another $2.8 million into carbon dioxide removal. The Danish toymaker had already pumped money into carbon-removal projects overseen by Climate Impact Partners and ClimeFi. At this point, LEGO has committed $8.5 million to sucking planet-heating carbon out of the atmosphere, where it circulates for centuries. “As the program expands, it is helping to strengthen our understanding of different approaches and inform future decision-making on how carbon removal may complement our wider climate goals,” Annette Stube, LEGO’s chief sustainability officer, told Carbon Herald.