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On a coal comeback, permitting reform, and NRDC’s nuclear conversion

Current conditions: A megastorm is bombarding more than 200 million Americans from the Midwest to the East Coast, blasting dozens of states with wind speeds as high as 80 miles per hour • Eight states — Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas — are bracing for sub-zero temperatures • It’s rainy and just over 50 degrees Fahrenheit in Dublin, Ireland, for St. Patrick’s Day.
When someone writes the definitive history of the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, one of the more ironic footnotes will be the fact that the breakthrough that gave rise to a new era for geothermal energy came 11 months after the law passed. As a result, geothermal was little more than a rounding error in the bill, receiving relatively little support compared to the billions of dollars allocated for next-generation nuclear power. Like nuclear power, geothermal is carbon-free, runs 24/7, and loved by both climate hawk Democrats and energy hawk Republicans. That’s exactly what’s behind a new bill to bolster the industry. Legislation set to be introduced in the Senate would boost federal funding and research for geothermal power, I can report exclusively in this newsletter. On Tuesday, Senators John Hickenlooper, the Democrat from Colorado, and Steve Daines, the Montana Republican, plan to propose the GEO Power Act to authorize the Department of Energy to “move beyond limited-scale pilots and unlock the large-scale geothermal electricity generation needed to meet surging demand and drive down costs,” according to the senators’ description of the bill. If passed, the GEO Power Act would allow the Energy Department to offer “innovative financing approaches” to help build up the industry in areas with little existing geothermal power. The bill would also “generate public data to de-risk future geothermal projects” and set milestones to make sure companies that receive funding maintain fiscal accountability. Two of the industry’s top trade groups, Geothermal Rising Action and the Enhanced Geothermal Systems Deployment Coalition, backed the bill, as did companies such as Fervo, Eavor, XGS Energy, and Quaise Energy. “We’re on the verge of harnessing a new wave of geothermal energy to meet surging electricity demand, lower prices, and address the climate crisis,” Hickenlooper said in a statement. “The key will be in scaling up new, next-generation geothermal projects across the country.”
Enhanced geothermal, a specific subset of next-generation technologies, could actually come online fairly quickly, too. New research by the Center for Public Enterprise, a think tank that tracks effective government spending on energy, suggests that a commercial-scale project of up to 500 megawatts could enter into commercial production within 36 to 52 months of active development, “with a conservative planning horizon of three to six years from project initiation to in-service,” assuming developers can secure necessary permits and transmission. That timeline “can be compressed even further, to less than three years, if a sufficient number of drill rigs and crews are available.”
Oklo has received its first license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, allowing the nuclear startup to begin recycling and selling isotopes “across medicine, research, advanced manufacturing, and national security,” I can exclusively report in this newsletter. The approval makes the California-based company the first of the cohort of fourth-generation reactor startups whose technologies use coolants other than water to get the green light to start up a commercial operation of any kind. Once operational, it will also allow Oklo to begin generating revenue for the first time. The NRC has given out permits to rival fourth-generation companies only for construction activities. The Bill Gates-backed TerraPower, for instance, was granted permission just this month to begin construction on its first commercial power plant in Wyoming, as was the Google-backed Kairos Power for its demonstration facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
The permit for the facility, dubbed Atomic Alchemy and located at the Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory, authorizes the company to “receive, possess, use, store, and conduct” chemical and mechanical processing, packing, manufacturing, and distribution of a limited amount of Radium-226, which is used to make advanced cancer treatments, in addition to a handful of other isotopes. “Demand for critical isotopes is rising, but U.S. supply remains limited,” Jacob DeWitte, Oklo’s chief executive and co-founder, said in a statement. “This work helps create a more resilient and dependable domestic supply chain of isotopes and supports the transition from early operations to durable, commercial isotope production in the United States.” The license grants the company a foothold in one of its core businesses. On top of designing liquid sodium-cooled microreactors the startup plans to own and operate for electricity production, Oklo is building out a division to reprocess and recycle nuclear waste into fresh fuel for its power plants. That business, too, would involve extracting and selling high-priced medical isotopes from spent fuel, and Atomic Alchemy lays the groundwork for that future effort. To construct this debut facility, Oklo plans to build four non-power Versatile Isotope Production Reactors systems with a capacity of about 15 megawatts-thermal each.
The United States could get its first new coal-fired power plant since 2013 as part of a sweeping $56 billion deal the Trump administration announced Monday with 17 Indo-Pacific countries. Terra Energy Center reached a $1 billion deal with South Korea’s Hyundai Industries Power Systems to supply large-scale boilers for a new, more than 1.2-gigawatt coal plant in Alaska. It’s the first order for utility-scale coal boilers in the U.S. since about 2006. KOREIT, one of Korea’s largest private equity firms focused on infrastructure, pledged to make a $500 million equity investment in the Terra Energy Center project.
Coal use has collapsed in the U.S. over the past two decades as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, made natural gas cheap and abundant, the prices of renewables and batteries dropped, and decarbonization policies encouraged the closure of existing stations. Today coal generates about 16% of America’s electricity. But President Donald Trump has sought to stimulate demand for coal by forcing retiring plants across the country to remain open past their closure deadlines and easing regulations such as limits on mercury emissions from existing stations. The policies have delivered mixed results. Coal use has recently seen spikes. But states such as Washington are finding loopholes, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo reported. Either way, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote last year, coal plants just keep breaking down.
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The Trump administration declined to appeal a federal court ruling in favor of the offshore wind project that, as I wrote yesterday, came online this week off the coast of Rhode Island. Last week, the Department of Justice whiffed on filing an appeal before the deadline to challenge a federal judge's injunction blocking a Department of the Interior order meant to stop construction on Revolution Wind over national security concerns.
E&E News called the move “a potential sign of the importance of bipartisan permitting negotiations.” In December, the top climate hawks in the Senate told Heatmap’s Jael Holzman that their votes on permitting reform hinged on the legislation barring the Trump administration from continuing its assault on offshore wind and solar. When the SPEED Act passed in the House later that month, right-wing Republicans conditioned their support on a carve-out specifically granting Trump the power to go after renewables. A new bipartisan bill introduced last month, called the FREEDOM Act, rekindled those negotiations by specifically barring the executive branch from yanking already-granted permits, whether it’s an offshore wind farm or an oil pipeline.

The Natural Resources Defense Council cut its teeth fighting against the expansion of nuclear power. Now the storied conservation group has come out in support of atomic energy for the first time. The NRDC filed comments in support of restarting Iowa’s defunct Duane Arnold nuclear plant, the state’s only atomic power station, which closed in 2020. “This is unprecedented for us because it marks the first time in our history that we have taken action in support of an individual nuclear power plant,” Manish Bapna, president and chief executive of NRDC, told Axios.
The move comes just days after the Nuclear Regulatory Commission took its latest step to speed up approvals of new reactors. The rule proposed last week would set fixed, accountable fee caps for new and current licensees and reduce fees for prospective applicants. “We need to cultivate accountability internally, incentivize applicants, and lower barriers for new technologies,” NRC Chairman Ho Nieh said in a statement. “This rule supports innovation and aligns with the NRC’s principles of efficiency and reliability.”
Nevada’s biggest utility is putting off launching a new rate structure that critics warn could raise household electricity costs by changing the billing formula. State regulators gave NV Energy permission last year to charge customers in southern Nevada on the 15-minute period each day when they use electricity the most rather than tallying up total usage. The new charge was set to come into effect on April 1. But NV Energy told E&E News it would hold off until October 1 to inform customers of what they should expect. “Postponing the implementation of daily demand is the right decision for our customers,” NV Energy President Brandon Barkhuff said in a statement. “This additional time will allow us to provide customers with personalized information and practical tools so they can better understand how their energy use affects their bill before daily demand takes effect.”
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Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by ... another wind opponent.
Democrat Zack Mullock unseated Representative Jeff Van Drew, one of offshore wind’s biggest foes, on Tuesday night in the race for New Jersey’s second district. But while Mullock is a fan of renewable energy, he’s still a man of the south Jersey shore — and unlikely to be a champion for turbines off his coast.
District 2 encompasses the entire lower quarter of the state, covering six coastal counties from Atlantic City down to the tip of Cape May and around to the Delaware Bay. The area is a hotbed for offshore wind opposition, where groups like Protect our Coasts NJ have filed legal challenges against almost every wind project proposed in the region.
After heading to Congress in 2019, Van Drew, who was previously a Democrat, switched parties and became a key ally to this movement. He called for a moratorium on offshore wind development, held hearings on offshore wind “industrialization”, and requested that the Government Accountability Office investigate the industry. He also worked with the Trump administration to block projects that were under construction.
During a debate in late October, Mullock accused Van Drew of flip flopping on wind, arguing that the congressman was a staunch supporter of the industry during his decade-long tenure in the New Jersey legislature. Mullock, who is currently serving his second term as mayor of the city of Cape May, summed up his own position by citing a resolution he signed in 2023 calling for a moratorium on surveying and acoustic testing for offshore wind development pending an investigation into a spate of whale deaths. He signed it due to “concerns” about the environment and commercial fishing, he said.
“I believe very much in our future with renewable energy,” he said. “We need to go full steam ahead with solar panels. And yes we should do wind where it is appropriate, where it doesn't hurt our environment and it doesn't hurt our commercial fishing industry.”
Mullock’s campaign website says he supports federal investments in renewable energy and incentives for energy-efficient homes. He also wants “stricter enforcement of the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act,” and to fund coastal resiliency and other “smart infrastructure” projects that protect against climate impacts. He also campaigned in support of a data center moratorium.
Early signs point to a rough election for AI infrastructure.
We’ve seen enough: If this was the data center election, it was a really bad night for the industry.
Democratic campaigns and their affiliated Super PACs spent bigly on data center-themed attack ads. The ads came in various flavors. Some ads painted a vote for tax cuts as aiding data center developers. Others brought up candidates’ previous support for data centers or stock the candidate may have held in the tech industry or AI infrastructure developers. As Election Day approached, the data center industry sought to bat back claims that their sector’s poor reputation with the electorate would sway the results. People may have soured on their industry, they argued, but people weren’t going to vote based on that position.
Results are still coming in, but so far congressional races heavily featuring these data center attacks are heavily going in Democrats’ favor. In addition, these races have so profoundly shifted that it’ll be challenging for the industry to argue they played no role in the outcome.
Some of the most illustrative examples are obvious. In Georgia, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms campaigned on a statewide data center moratorium and won control of the governor’s mansion, becoming the first black woman to ever lead a U.S. state. Similar results in Ohio where Amy Acton flipped party control of the governor’s seat with a campaign that included going hard against data centers. In Pennsylvania, two Democrats who focused on data centers in their races have flipped Republican districts: Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti and firefighter Bob Brooks. In New Jersey, Cape May mayor Zack Mullock rode data center attacks to defeat Rep. Jeff Van Drew, the biggest opponent of the offshore wind industry. In Virginia, Democrat Shannon Taylor rode data center-laden attacks to take control of the Richmond area congressional seat from Rep. Rob Wittman.
If you’re arguing this election was decided by data centers, your best proof point: Democrat Gina Hinojosa has taken control of the governor's mansion in Texas, defeating incumbent Greg Abbott, who’d sought recently to take a hard line against the industry. Hinojosa ran on going further, calling to pass a law completely pausing data center development across one of the industry’s favorite states. She won a decisive victory. So did Democratic Texas Agriculture Commissioner candidate Clayton Tucker, who I explained months ago became one of anti-data center Facebook’s favorite online personalities.
But it makes sense that data centers would matter a lot in Texas, which could be compared to Virginia in terms of their buildout. When you inspect the election results more closely, they tell a more complicated story about the upper boundaries of these data center attacks.
For decades, Greenville and Spartanburg County have been GOP vote strongholds and reliable for both Republican congressional candidates and statewide campaigns. The congressional district gave Donald Trump at least a 20-point cushion in the 2024 presidential election, according to Decision Desk HQ. Last week, I explained for subscribers to The Fight how Courtney McClain, a novice candidate living one mile from a controversial data center proposal, was running against incumbent Rep. William Timmons. I couldn’t find much in the way of online ad spending on either side in this race and it’s never been on the radar of most political observers as a campaign that could somehow flip party control. But the data center debate in Spartanburg County has been immense.
Tonight, Timmons kept his ordinarily ruby red district by slim single digits after running even for most of the night. But this swing was essentially the same as the national margin. And because Timmons didn’t lose, this actually feels like a crucial distinction – data centers were not deciding races themselves in all cases. Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Republican Darlene Graham in a result driven by Democratic overperformance and GOP underperformance in this area, but it’s challenging to tie this result to the data center issue at all. Anything from the economy and the Iran War to Graham’s deceased brother and his baggage could be blamed for this result from this heavily evangelical region.
However, it will be challenging for the data center sector to differentiate themselves from this outcome, especially since a pro-data center Super PAC – Building the Future – publicly waded into the race in support of Graham only to lose. “Darlene Graham’s loss is a black eye for the data center industry,” wrote Teddy Schleifer of The New York Times on election night.
The same story played out in Georgia’s 1st district, which includes the city of Savannah. OpenAI is developing a controversial data center project in Effingham County, northwest of Savannah and the congressional race – which like South Carolina’s 4th had comparatively little spending – has been chock full of data center mudslinging, with the Democrat Amanda Hollowell calling for broader moratoria on development.
Effingham County went for Trump by almost 50 points in 2024. As of this story’s publication, the Republican, Jim Kingston, is winning by a single percentage point with 93% of the vote in. Most of what’s left is in Effington. Should this candidate win, it’s safe to say it’s because voters in this county looked past data centers, or did not link their vote for a national candidate to the local development.
On Election Night, Effingham County formally tabled any decision on the OpenAI data center. So at least on the ground level, people are paying close attention to these results.
After taking two seats in a special election last year, the party gained a third in the midterms.
Democrats claimed two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission in a special election last year, ending almost 20 years of unanimous Republican control over the regulator.
One of those winning Democrats, Peter Hubbard, ran again this year for a full six-year term in a rematch against Republican Fitz Johnson. The other open seat this year saw Sheila Edwards running in an open race against Republican Josh Tolbert.
Both Hubbard and Edwads won, securing a 3–2 Democratic majority on the Public Service Commission.
“Over the last 12 months, Georgian consumers have made one thing clear: They are tired of rising utility bills and they are hungry to see change. Georgia’s sea change moment for energy policy has arrived,” Charles Hua, the executive director of the utility-focused advocacy group PowerLines, told me.
The Democrats have not been shy about what their priorities will be on the commission.
“Winning control of the Georgia Public Service Commission means prioritizing lowering power bills instead of constantly increasing corporate profits, ramping up the deployment of clean energy technologies, and focusing the people in our decision-making as state regulators,” Hubbard said in a statement on his website.
Edwards, for her part, made it clear where she stands on data centers specifically in an October debate with Tolbert. “They came into our communities,” Edwards said. “They didn’t pay any taxes. They are using our water, using our electricity, and they’re being a public nuisance to the communities that they’re coming into.”
Hubbard also talked about data centers on Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast back in June. “I advocate for a whole-of-government approach, because while the Public Service Commission really only has oversight over the power side of things — where that power comes from and how much data centers are paying on their tariff — there’s much larger issues in terms of water use, in terms of the tax incentives,” he told my colleague Robinson Meyer. “The estimate is $3.5 billion in tax abatements this year in Georgia, uncollected revenue that data centers otherwise would be willing to pay.”
The race has seen outsize spending and interest from major figures not accustomed to dealing in utility regulator races. (Just 10 states have elected utility commissions, period.) Kamala Harris appeared at a virtual fundraiser for the Democratic candidates in Georgia, as well as Democratic hopefuls to the Arizona Corporation Commission. The solar energy industry spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of the Democrats in Georgia. Meanwhile, anonymous donors pumped millions of dollars into Tolbert’s bid.
Democrats swept into the Georgia PSC last year on a wave of dissatisfaction with rising electricity prices, especially rate hikes attached to the construction of two new nuclear reactors at the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, which ran years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. In the runup to the election, the PSC approved a three-year base rate freeze proposed by Georgia Power in an attempt to head off public dissatisfaction.
In the past year, rates in Georgia have gone up by less than 1% across the state on average, according to the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub, while rates are up over 18% in the last three years and over 6% in the past two years.
Shares in Southern Company, the parent company of Georgia Power, were down slightly more than 0.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday night.