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On permitting reform, Warren Buffett’s BYD exit, and American antimony

Current conditions: Super Typhoon Ragasa, the most powerful storm in the world so far this year, made landfall over the northern Philippines as it progresses toward southern China and Taiwan • Hurricane Gabrielle is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major storm while tracking northwest through the central Atlantic, but is unlikely to have direct impacts on land beyond creating dangerous riptides along the East Coast • Puerto Rico’s densely populated San Juan metropolitan area is bracing for flash flooding amid heavy rain.
A federal judge lifted President Donald Trump’s stop-work order for the Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island, Heatmap’s Jael Holzman reported Monday. Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan-era Republican appointee to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, granted a motion for a preliminary injunction at the hearing, allowing construction to continue as the government conducts a review of its concerns over the project. “There is no question in my mind of irreparable harm to the plaintiff,” Lamberth said. As I previously reported in this newsletter, the project’s owners, Danish energy giant Orsted and the developer Skyborn Renewables, filed a lawsuit earlier this month. Analysts never expected Trump’s order to hold, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin reported last month, though the cost to the project’s owners was likely to rise. The Trump administration has enlisted at least half a dozen agencies in a widening attack meant to stymie the offshore wind industry, despite its growth overseas in Europe and Asia.
In an interview with Axios, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright insisted the assault on offshore wind and the use of the federal permitting apparatus to stall projects, is “a one-off exception, or one-off complication.” Overall, he said, building infrastructure is “going to be massively easier than it has been in a long time.”
“The biggest remaining thing” in the Trump administration’s energy agenda that has yet to come to fruition? “Permitting reform,” Wright told Axios. “We’re building big infrastructure, but that’s still much slower and clumsier than it should be.” The will to find compromise on a new permitting reform bill may be limited. Republicans in Congress are reluctant to fuse energy legislation into the next reconciliation bill, as I wrote here yesterday. Last week, I reported that Representative Scott Peters, a key Democrat championing a federal permitting reform bill, warned that he wouldn’t move forward while the Trump administration blocked solar projects in California. But Wright said he’s been talking to Republicans and Democrats and said the political window may “quite possibly” open this year.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro stepped up his threats to withdraw from the PJM Interconnection if the nation’s largest grid operator doesn’t speed up interconnections of new supply and find ways to curb electricity price hikes. In a speech at a summit convened in Philadelphia to bring together the 13 states in the grid system, the Democrat said that PJM’s “slow, reactive approach” to addressing rising power demand “is no longer working for our states,” particularly “at a time when the Trump administration is cutting funding for energy projects.” Separately, in a Monday interview on Bloomberg TV, Shapiro said, “If PJM is not willing to look in the mirror and really reform itself, then I’m willing to go my own way, and Pennsylvania can stand alone in this effort.”
It’s not the first time he’s threatened to leave. In January, Shapiro said something similar while criticizing PJM’s “market failure.” In the meantime, on Monday, he pitched what he called the PJM Governors’ Collaborative to coordinate leaders of the dozen other states in the grid system to advocate for better rates. Shapiro isn’t the only one asking questions about PJM. As Matthew wrote yesterday, “the system as it’s constructed now may, critics argue, expose retail customers to unacceptable cost increases — and greenhouse gas emissions — as it attempts to grapple with serving new data center load.”
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has fully exited Chinese automaker BYD, ending what Reuters described as a 17-year investment that grew over 20-fold in value in that period. The selloff, revealed in a filing by Berkshire’s energy subsidiary, recorded the value of the investment as zero as of the end of March, down from $415 million at the end of 2024. The company initially invested in BYD in 2008, when it bought a roughly 10% share of the Shanghai-based automaker. In August 2022, Berkshire started paring back its position. By June of last year, Berkshire had sold off almost 76% of its stake, bringing it to just under 5% of BYD’s outstanding shares, CNBC reported. Buffett has not explained why he started selling his BYD stake. But in 2023, he told CNBC’s Becky Quick that BYD is an “extraordinary company” being run by an “extraordinary person,” but “I think that we’ll find things to do with the money that I’ll feel better about.” Around the same time, Berkshire sold most of the company’s shares in Taiwan’s leading semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC.
The U.S. has granted Perpetua Resources permission to begin construction on a mine in Idaho that will produce gold and antimony, a brittle, silvery-white metal used in semiconductors, batteries, and high-tech military equipment, Reuters reported. China controls the global market for antimony, generating nearly four times the supply of the second-place producer, Tajikistan, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. The U.S., by contrast, has no active antimony mines.
Perpetua’s Stibnite project, about 138 miles north of Boise, could change that. The U.S. Forest Service gave Perpetua a conditional notice to proceed, and construction is slated to start next month. Once complete, Stibnite could supply up to 35% of America’s needs. “Completing federal permitting for Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project is a major step towards unlocking America’s critical minerals resources,” Emily Domenech, executive director of the government's permitting council, told Reuters.
A University of Delaware-led research team has developed a new type of catalyst that can help convert plastic waste into liquid fuels without the unwanted byproducts from current methods. Traditional catalysts have a hard time working on bulky polymers because the molecules don’t interact with the active parts of a catalyst, where the chemical reaction takes place. To address this, the scientists transformed a nanomaterial called MXenes (pronounced max-eens) to have larger, more open pores. As a result, the catalyst triggered a reaction nearly two times faster than traditional catalysts. “Instead of letting plastics pile up as waste, upcycling treats them like solid fuels that can be transformed into useful liquid fuels and chemicals, offering a faster, more efficient and environmentally friendly solution,” Dongxia Liu, a professor at the University of Delaware's College of Engineering and the senior author on the study, said in a press release.
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On ‘modernizing’ coal, 2.8 degrees of warming, and Spain’s nuclear phaseout
Current conditions: Hurricane Melissa passed by Bermuda on its way northward, leaving at least 30 dead in its wake across the Caribbean • Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is strengthening as it approaches the eastern shore of the Philippines • Colombia and Venezuela are bracing for flooding from heavy rainfall up to 2 inches above average.
The Environmental Protection Agency has quietly walked back its plans to eliminate Energy Star, the popular program that costs just $32 million in annual budget but saves Americans more than $40 billion each year. In May, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that his agency would end the program. The proposal drew swift backlash from industry groups and Republicans in Congress, as I wrote in a July newsletter. Now Zeldin is reconsidering the move, four unnamed sources with direct knowledge of the agency’s plans told The New York Times. Federal records show the agency renewed four contracts with ICF, the consulting firm that helps oversee the program, including one deal that stretches through September 2030.
Calling the initial plan to eliminate Energy Star “vexing,” RE Tech Advisors’ Deb Cloutier, one of Energy Star’s original architects, told Heatmap’s Jeva Lange, “There are a lot of lobbying efforts that I’m personally aware of within the commercial real estate industry and the manufacturing industry, where folks are reaching out and doing calls to action for the House and Senate Appropriations majority members — similar activities to what we did eight years ago when Energy Star was directly under fire.” She added, “I know that there are many, many representatives, both Republican and Democrats, who support Energy Star. We’ve had 35 years of bipartisan support, and it has been earmarked in congressional law many times, through multiple George H.W. and George W. Bush administrations.”
The world is on track to warm by an average of 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the Rhodium Group predicted in its latest forecast. The consultancy said its modeling showed a 67% likelihood that global temperatures will rise between 2.3 degrees and 3.4 degrees thanks to the current trajectory of planet-heating pollution. That’s a significant improvement on the dire predictions issued a decade ago. But if decarbonization doesn’t pick up pace, the probability of limiting warming to 2 degrees — the more modest target set in the Paris Agreement — is below 5%. Still, the findings don’t deviate much from Rhodium’s projections before Trump returned to office. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote this morning, “in the long run, Trump might not mean much for the climate’s trajectory.”
Nevertheless, the overshoot beyond 2 degrees is partly why Bill Gates took a more moderate stance on climate change in his latest memo, as Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer wrote last week. It’s also why, as Rob explained in a big story, private companies promising to commercialize technology to geoengineer the world’s temperature are raising large sums of money.
The Department of Energy is stepping up its efforts to keep aging coal plants online. The agency on Friday announced plans to offer up to $100 million to owners of coal-fired power stations that plan to modernize the stations with upgrades that “improve efficiency, plant lifetimes, and performance of coal and natural gas use.” In a press release, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright praised President Donald Trump for having “ended the war on American coal” and “restoring common sense energy policies that put Americans first.”
Despite Trump’s promises to revive American coal production and use, exports fell 11% in the first half of this year due to China buying less of the fuel amid ongoing trade negotiations, according to an analysis published Friday by the Energy Information Administration.

In the latest sign that Wall Street is heeding Trump’s calls to veer away from investment initiatives that cut out fossil fuels, lending giant State Street’s asset management arm withdrew its U.S. operations from what was once a leading climate action group for the industry. The company said “it had decided that only its units serving UK and European clients would remain part of the Net Zero Asset Managers” group, the Financial Times reported. BlackRock, Vanguard, and JP Morgan Asset Management had already left the group known as NZAM in the U.S. JP Morgan and State Street had already also quit another green investor group, Climate Action 100+, last year.
Months after Taiwan shut down its final reactors earlier this year, a plurality of voters approved a referendum calling for the last atomic plant to be turned back on. Years after Germany completely exited nuclear power, the new government has reversed Berlin’s position and has now joined France in supporting atomic energy again as it considers ways to restore its fleet. Switzerland and Belgium, meanwhile, reversed plans to shut down nuclear plants, and Italy — the first country in the world to end its nuclear power production years ago — is working on reviving its industry. That leaves only Spain still stubbornly planning to close its nuclear plants starting in 2027.
The tides may be turning. In February, a majority of lawmakers in Spain’s parliament approved a resolution condemning Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s phaseout plans. Now the board of Spain’s Centrales Nucleares Almaraz-Trillo has officially requested a three-year extension on the operating license for units one and two of the Almaraz Nuclear Power Plant. If granted, the extension would allow the reactors to stay online through 2030. The station currently supplies 7% of Spain’s electricity.
Fusion energy, the joke goes, is the energy source of tomorrow — and always will be. But recent laboratory breakthroughs have unleashed billions of dollars in private financing to commercialize fusion energy for real, with companies promising to open power plants in the next decade. There’s a big bottleneck, however: Many of the materials needed for fusion reactors are scarcely produced right now. New bipartisan legislation aims to change that by extending the 45X tax credit for clean manufacturing — one of the few parts of the Inflation Reduction Act retained in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — to producers of vanadium, deuterium, helium-3, and other materials needed for fusion power to take off.
It’s an off-off-cycle election year, but there are still a handful of key elections going on in Georgia, New Jersey, and Virginia.
With the Trump administration disassembling climate policy across the federal government, state elections are arguably more important to climate action than ever.
Here are the key races we’re watching where clean energy, public transit, and other climate-oriented policies are on the ballot.
There are only 10 states in the country that hold elections for a Public Service Commission, a small group of regulators who oversee utility companies, and Georgia is one of them. As Charles Hua, the executive director of the nonprofit PowerLines, recently put it, these officials are the “Supreme Court justices” of energy. They preside over what kinds of infrastructure gas and electric utilities will build, where they’ll build it, and how much rates will go up as a result.
The election in Georgia is long overdue after being held up by a lawsuit the last two election cycles. Two of the five current commissioners have served three extra years without being re-elected by voters. During that time, the commission has approved six rate increases for customers of Georgia Power, the largest utility in the state, in part to pay for major cost overruns on new nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle. Now Georgia Power is proposing a major expansion of natural gas power — about 10 nuclear reactors’ worth — mostly to meet data center demand.
The two seats are held by Republicans Fitz Johnson and Tim Echols. They are being challenged by Democrats Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johson, who have vowed to push for Georgia Power to meet demand with clean energy.
Energy costs are at the center of the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia this year, and Democrats and Republicans are making opposite arguments about how to lower them. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill has vowed to freeze utility rates and clear red tape to “open the floodgates on new cheaper and cleaner energy projects,” including solar, battery storage, and nuclear. Her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, thinks the key to lower prices is pulling out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a 13-state cap and trade program that incentivizes cleaner power generation and raises money for climate-friendly projects. He also wants to repeal the state’s electrification goals for vehicles and buildings and ban offshore wind development.
A similar fight is playing out in Virginia, although there it’s tied more to the state’s rapidly multiplying data centers. Virginia is already home to 13% of global data center capacity, with more coming online. A recent state legislative report warns that customers are looking at increases of $14 to $37 per month by 2040 as a result.
The Democratic candidate for governor, former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, wants to expand solar and wind power and invest in building efficiency. She’s also advocated for data centers to “pay their fair share” of new energy infrastructure, and said she will encourage them to pilot advanced clean technologies like small modular nuclear reactors and hydrogen. She’s running against Winson Earle Sears, the current lieutenant governor of Virginia, who has questioned the reliability of renewable energy, arguing for an all-of-the-above strategy that includes “clean coal.” While “beautiful clean coal,” it may be one of Trump’s favorite energy sources, the reality is, it’s still just coal.
The governor’s seat isn’t the only one that’s up for grabs in Virginia. Whoever wins will need the House of Delegates on their side. Democrats currently have a razor thin 51-seat majority, and all 100 seats are on offer. Even a blue wave in the House doesn’t guarantee strong climate action, however, according to the nonprofit advocacy group Climate Cabinet. “Which candidates win will determine whether Virginia expands on” its climate law, the Clean Economy Act, “or backslides,” the group said in a “races to watch” memo.
Voters in Charlotte, North Carolina, and the whole of Mecklenburg County, will be asked whether to increase their sales tax by 1% to fund new transportation projects. Roughly 60% of the estimated $20 billion raised by the tax will go toward the expansion of rail and bus service. Charlotte is among the fastest-growing cities in the country. During a legislative hearing this summer, State Senator Mujtaba Mohammad said an average of 130 people move to the area each day. “We are experiencing longer commutes, more car accidents, higher car insurance premiums, more pedestrian-related accidents and less revenue to address our crumbling critical infrastructure," he said.
The Charlotte Area Transit System finalized a new long-range plan this year to foster “transit-oriented communities,” by increasing bus frequency, extending service hours, adding microtransit options to underserved neighborhoods, and adding 43 miles of new rail. But the plan is only possible with funding from the sales tax.
Sales tax increases are a common way to raise money for public transit systems — legislators in California recently voted to put a sales tax increase on next year’s ballot to address a looming fiscal cliff for transit in the Bay Area. Illinois also voted last week to increase the sales tax in the Chicago area by 0.025% to raise money for its ailing transit system, among other measures.
A few smaller elections where climate is also on the ballot this year, according to Climate Cabinet:
A new report from the Rhodium Group finds that the range of likely temperature outcomes has essentially not changed since 2023.
It’s that time of year when COP, the annual United Nations climate conference, draws near, and a flood of reports assess how much progress the world has made (or not made) to limit global warming. Given the sharp reversal in U.S. climate policy under President Trump, it may seem inevitable that the future will look bleaker than before. His administration has spent the past nine months dismantling nearly every bit of domestic climate policy implemented by its predecessor, and has even managed to thwart international efforts at climate cooperation.
The annual climate outlook from the Rhodium Group, a U.S. energy and climate research firm, offers a somewhat hopeful counterpoint to that narrative, however. It finds that the range of possible climate futures has essentially not changed in the past two years.
A full decade has passed since the landmark Paris Agreement on climate change, and in that time the world has avoided the most catastrophic scientific projections. In 2015, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, projected that global average temperatures could increase by as much as 7.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century without significant shifts in policy and advancements in technology. Now, the Rhodium Group estimates that warming is highly unlikely to exceed 3.9 degrees by 2100, and could be limited to 2 degrees.
The numbers themselves are not hopeful. This is a vast range in terms of the potential impacts implied, and even 2 degrees of warming should not be considered “little.” The IPCC estimates that compared with a scenario that limits warming to 1.5 degrees, more than twice as many people would be exposed to severe heat at least once every five years in a world 2 degrees warmer; ice-free summers in the Arctic would occur 10 times more often; the number of plant, animal, and insect species that lose at least half their habitat would be two to three times larger; and crop yields and fisheries would suffer roughly twice the losses.
Putting those dire projections aside, what’s interesting is that this 2- to 3.9-degree range is about the same as what the Rhodium Group forecast when it published its first Climate Outlook report in 2023. Also relatively unchanged: a finding that global power sector emissions will peak within the next decade, and that total emissions will likely remain constant or subtly decline through 2060, but then go up again as Global South countries see more rapid economic development in the latter half of the century.
The reason the numbers haven’t changed much, despite some seemingly dramatic policy changes that have occurred in the interim, has to do with Rhodium’s unique approach to projecting the future.
Many of the reports that come out around this time, such as the UN’s annual Emissions Gap Report, try to assess where the world is headed based on currently enacted policies as well as pledges, such as the “nationally determined contributions” that countries submit to the UN. Those might include promises like, “We’ll build X quantity of renewable energy by 2030,” or “We’ll protect X amount of our forests.” The models assume that these policies and pledges are fixed. They do not contemplate future ramp-ups or potential reversals. They also use fixed assumptions about GDP and population growth, oil prices, technology costs, etc.
A recent report by Wood Mackenzie, for example, estimates that temperatures will climb to 2.6 degrees by 2060, and then models a few other potential discrete scenarios, including one that shows what it would take to limit warming to 2 degrees.
The limitation of this approach is that the trajectory for each variable these models use is deeply uncertain, Hannah Pitt, one of the authors of the Rhodium report, told me. “Even a small change in GDP growth can have really big implications for emissions — likewise for oil prices and renewable costs and all that,” she said. “We try to take into consideration the wide range of uncertainty we have in the future of those core drivers of emissions.” That requires modeling thousands of scenarios with different combinations of how those underlying drivers might evolve.
Then, rather than assuming that policies on the books today remain static, Rhodium uses data on how climate and energy policy has historically responded to economic inputs like oil prices and GDP growth, in different parts of the world to project how policy might change going forward, using a carbon price as a proxy for policy ambition.
This approach takes into account such a wide range of possibilities that the results aren’t likely to change much year to year. Both in 2023 and now, the modeling incorporated the prospect that a Trump administration or something like it could reverse some progress, and that energy demand could soar. “We are looking at the long-term evolution of policy, not the administration fluctuations,” Pitt explained. It would take a true step-change in policy or a major technological breakthrough to produce a noticeable change in the trajectory, she said.
What are those breakthroughs? At this point, they aren’t a mystery. Cheaper clean firm power — like advanced nuclear, fusion, or geothermal — would be a huge help. Solutions for decarbonizing flying and shipping are also on the list. We also need to make it affordable to produce iron, steel, cement, and petrochemicals with far fewer emissions.
On the policy side, bending the curve might mean something like stricter electric vehicle requirements. As mentioned earlier, economic development in the Global South is expected to shift emissions back upward later this century — in part because if policy evolves the way it has historically, and if more and more people around the world are buying cars, the cars may not be 100% electric, and emissions from transport will go up.
None of this is to say that the Trump administration’s actions will have no effect on warming. Recall the report’s expansive range of future warming scenarios of 2 to 3.9 degrees — it’s very possible that policies enacted today will push the world closer to one or the other. A separate recent Rhodium study that dives into the specifics of U.S. policies found that emissions in 2035 could be 0.8 to 1.2 gigatonnes higher than what the group projected in the same report last year, largely due to Trump’s policies.
It should be comforting that one administration can’t veer the world too far off course — although by that same logic, we can’t expect a single administration to shift projections in a positive direction, either. A "breakthrough" in something like decarbonized cement will likely happen over years, through a feedback loop of sustained policy support and technological development.
There is no “too late” when it comes to addressing the technology and policy gaps the report highlights, Pitt said “Of course, the sooner the better,” she said. “But the difference between a 2.8-degree future and a 2.5-degree future saves lives. So the effort to drive these technology costs down is worthwhile, even if it doesn’t happen on the timeline that we would hope.”