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On Trump’s power pledge, America’s offshore nuclear, and Japan’s offshore wind

Current conditions: A new heat dome is spreading temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the Central United States, from Texas north to the Dakotas • Tropical Storm Bertha made landfall over southern Louisiana with winds of up to 45 miles per hour • Tasmania is facing a cold front with freezing wind chills.

On December 8, 1953 — just eight years after the United States demonstrated the destructive power of splitting atoms in the form of a mushroom cloud over Hiroshima — then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower pledged to lead the world in harnessing fission to constructive ends. In his famed “Atoms for Peace” speech, he vowed to help other nations build nuclear power stations that he believed would bring about a new era of global prosperity built atop a foundation of abundant electricity. Under the law Congress passed the next year to lay the groundwork for a nuclear buildout, Washington didn’t make it easy for foreign countries to import American technology. Before any U.S. nuclear company can sell its wares abroad, the Senate needs to approve what’s known as a 123 Agreement, essentially a treaty in which the partner nation agrees not to use the technology for weapons proliferation. When Abu Dhabi set out to build the Arab world’s first nuclear power station, the U.S. struck a new, special 123 Agreement with the United Arab Emirates in 2009, in which the Gulf monarchy swore off ever enriching or recycling its own fuel. That deal became the gold standard for U.S. nuclear pacts — and one Washington had planned to make a requirement for any other countries in the region. Saudi Arabia, however, wasn’t happy with those restrictions, particularly as its rival Iran pressed ahead with construction of its second and third reactors at its debut Russian-made nuclear station. With the Biden administration putting up resistance, Riyadh began flaunting talks with Beijing to buy Chinese reactors, in what would mark a major entry of the People’s Republic into the nuclear export market.
All of which you needed to know to appreciate what a huge deal the latest news is. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and the Associated Press confirmed that Saudi Arabia had reached a deal with the Trump administration that would likely allow Riyadh to enrich and recycle its own fuel on its soil. While a formal announcement is expected this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio already acknowledged the deal by telling reporters any such agreement would not lead to weapons proliferation. On the face of it, the deal is a major win for the U.S. over its arch adversaries. Russia dominates global nuclear exports, and is currently building the debut plants in Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey. China, meanwhile, has dramatically brought down the cost and time it takes to build its own domestic reactors, which are based on the leading American design, and Beijing is widely expected to make an export push in the coming years. The U.S. has managed to win deals in Eastern Europe to build Poland’s first nuclear plant. But so far, American technology has struggled to compete on both price and construction competence. A moment when Iran is firing missiles at America’s Arab allies may seem ill-suited to embarking on a civilian nuclear program, but the Atlantic Council researcher Allison Minor, who previously served as a U.S. deputy special envoy to Yemen, said the war had added urgency to brokering the Saudi-U.S. deal. “By keeping the door open for uranium enrichment inside Saudi Arabia, the nuclear deal sends a powerful message to Tehran,” she wrote in a blog post. “By securing a 123 agreement that appears to have more preferable terms than the United Arab Emirates and dozens of other U.S. partners have committed to, Riyadh also signals its role as a major global player, even if it is not among the ranks of nuclear-armed nations.”
In March, the White House organized a voluntary industry pledge in which hyperscalers and data centers developers promised to pay above and beyond the normal rate for electricity to ease the strain on Americans. On Thursday, the Trump administration plans to announce a vast expansion of the pact to include the nation’s largest utilities, Reuters reported. Utilities NextEra Energy and Duke Energy joined data center developers Equinix and Digital Realty along with roughly 200 other entities on a list of signatories The Wall Street Journal obtained.
The move comes a day after ratepayer advocates accused the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of failing to address the cost of upgrading infrastructure in its latest order meant to ease the impacts of data centers, Utility Dive reported. Polling from Heatmap Pro has shown repeatedly that public support for data centers is collapsing.
The Colorado River’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, hit record lows in what experts described to the Los Angeles Times this week as a “five-alarm fire.” On Tuesday, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum met with the governors of seven states virtually ahead of his agency’s anticipated release of a plan to cut back on water use to ease shortages. That states appear to be welcoming a federal intervention marks a break with more than a century of Western states fighting to manage their water supplies among themselves with minimal oversight from Washington. Yet “far from a brash commandeering of the system,” E&E News reported, Burgum’s plan “is effectively a kick-the-can exercise for managing the drought-riddled river that supplies water” for one in 10 Americans. “At best, the Trump administration’s plan will leave economies — from the bucolic ranches of the Rocky Mountains to the mansions of Los Angeles, the tech hub of Phoenix and the powerhouse farms along the border with Mexico — in a state of limbo, without clear rules for who will have access to vital supplies in the years to come,” reporter Annie Snider wrote. “At worst, it dares the region’s political leaders — most especially Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, who is facing one of the country’s closest gubernatorial races in the fall — to launch a destabilizing court fight.” As former Heatmap reporter Neel Dhanesha wrote in 2023, sometimes plans can at least buy some time.
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Russia officially kicked off the global race for small modular reactors in 2019 with the launch of its first floating nuclear station, which is still pumping out power in an Arctic port today. Since then, dozens of companies have proposed small reactors on land, and a handful of startups has looked to build nuclear-propelled civilian ships. But no one has really attempted any major offshore nuclear energy projects yet. Still, the Trump administration is preparing for the potential new sector. On Wednesday, the Department of the Interior’s Marine Minerals Administration — the agency recently formed out of combining the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management with the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement — signed a memorandum of understanding with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to “responsibly respond to industry requests” and support new technologies.
“Submerged reactor systems have been safely deployed in naval applications for decades, demonstrating their potential as a reliable source of energy in demanding marine environments,” Matt Giacona, the acting director of the Marine Minerals Administration, said in a statement. “While no commercial deployment on the Outer Continental Shelf is planned or approved at this time, it could greatly strengthen America’s energy security in the future.”
China unveiled a new set of rules for the solar industry last week that are expected to “do a good job in cutting out low-cost, outdated technology across the value chain,” according to a new report from the research division at the magazine PV Tech. The new national regulations, set to take effect on January 1, 2027, phase out weaker panels and conventional polysilicon products. “These new restrictions are very interesting as the Chinese government now sees a need to stop the oversupply, maybe coming from lowered deployment in China in the first half of the year,” Joe Hennessy, co-author of the report and analyst at PV Tech Research, told PV Tech. “This will affect the smaller producers the most, as they are less likely to have upgraded lines during the period of losses.” Larger solar manufacturers are already producing panels with efficiency rates of up to 24%, the report found.
This is a story I’m planning to keep a close eye on, given the forthcoming results of the Department of Commerce’s 232 investigation into whether domestic U.S. producers of polysilicon need new tariffs to protect them against Chinese imports. My best-placed sources say the agency is on track to release its findings by next month, though others close to the process say the 74-day government shutdown could give the administration until early September to meet its legal deadlines.”
Koloma, the startup seeking to tap into naturally occurring hydrogen deposits, has a third exploration deal in the Philippines. On Thursday, Heatmap editorial fellow Ameya Hadap broke news that the company has inked an agreement for exclusive rights to a roughly 817-square-mile area of Luzon’s Zambales Province. The Colorado-based firm now has the rights to more than 1,600 square miles of the country.
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Current conditions: Aside from tides up to two feet above average on Staten Island and Long Island, the powerful nor’easter barreling toward the East Coast is likely to spare New York City • Tropical Storm Nolo is set to hit Hawaii with a potentially historic multi-day deluge • Hurricane Polo is slamming into Mexico’s Pacific coast with dangerous swells and heavy rain.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump told reporters he had “called for” halting exports of diesel as prices roared to record highs amid a shortage of refining capacity to produce the fuel. On Wednesday, Politico reported that the administration was “preparing” a 90-day export ban. When Secretary of Energy Chris Wright took the stage at Heatmap House, our day-long summit on Wednesday in Midtown Manhattan, he told our executive editor Robinson Meyer that — contrary to the previous comments — the president “didn’t endorse” an export ban. “We are open to any ideas to lower energy prices for Americans,” Wright said at our annual event for New York Climate Week, essentially the amuse bouche before the United Nations climate summit in November. “We have a continual, thoughtful dialog based on the facts on the ground of what are the most practical steps moving forward, and it looks like right now we do need to grow the diesel supply in the United States.”
Former Vice President Al Gore, meanwhile, injected some optimism into the discussion about decarbonization. Reflecting on how climate discourse had evolved since the release of his famous film An Inconvenient Truth 20 years ago, he said booming electric vehicle sales and a global shift to renewables and nuclear power spurred by the energy shock from the war in Iran showed that “these are signs that this thing is really moving into high gear.” He added: “The fossil fuel industry is losing. They know they’re losing, and they’re trying to slow down how quickly they lose.” Yet perhaps one of the best hopes for speeding up deployment of more clean energy dimmed last night when Punchbowl News reported that increasingly bullish talks on permitting reform may be tanking. “The administration and congressional Republicans agreed to a strong bipartisan offer. The Democrats have since refused to take yes for an answer. If they think that the administration is going to freeze these concessions until the lame duck, they are severely mistaken,” a White House official told the outlet.

Later in the afternoon yesterday, I scurried off to the New York Nuclear Symposium, the annual conference organized by the advocacy group Nuclear New York. In the august halls of the New York Bar Association on 44th Street, policy experts and executives debated exactly what was needed to shift the excitement over atomic energy into actual projects with shovels in the ground. While some doubts persisted over how quickly anyone would commit to new fission plants in the U.S., at least beyond the various first-of-a-kind projects currently under development, the American government charged forward with export deals. Earlier this week, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency announced a partnership with Turkey to build as much as 5 gigawatts of small modular reactor power in the country. On Thursday, NucNet reported that Poland’s national nuclear company had reached a deal with the U.S. developers Bechtel and Westinghouse on the commercial terms for the European nation’s first atomic power station, a trio of Westinghouse AP1000s on the Baltic sea.
Meanwhile, the South Korean project manager and builder Samsung C&T unveiled new deals with two SMR companies in the U.S. The company pledged $100 million toward building the next-generation reactors designed by Google-backed Kairos Power. A day later, the company signed onto projects involving GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s 300-megawatt reactor, based on a traditional water-cooled design.
Enhanced geothermal leader Fervo Energy announced Thursday morning that it had shipped the first megawatts to the grid from its flagship Cape Station project, nearly three years to the day after breaking ground at the site. The facility in Beaver County, Utah marks a significant scale-up from the company’s earlier Project Red, located in the Blue Mountain geothermal field of Nevada, which began supplying 3.5 megawatts of electricity to the grid in 2023. Cape Station, by contrast, is the company’s first greenfield project. Phase I of the facility consists of three 33-megawatt units, the first of which has begun ramping up, while the remaining two are expected to reach commercial operations by 2027. “I could not be more proud of the years of hard work from Fervo’s employees, investors, suppliers, customers, and partners, which brought us to this moment,” Fervo CEO Tim Latimer said in a statement. “We are just getting started.”
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Last month, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I reported on the Department of Commerce’s latest import levies on polysilicon, the main ingredient in most solar panels. The restrictions were designed to keep out cheap, subsidized competition from Chinese companies. But the nearly four-month delay in the policy’s implementation opened the door to companies stockpiling foreign-made reactors. To avoid that, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security has issued a temporary rule explaining how it will monitor imports, Solar Power World reported. Starting December 4, polysilicon components in a panel such as wafers, cells, and the finished rigs themselves will have a 15% tariff.
“Flooding the U.S. market with large volumes of imported products is a strategy that companies abroad have long used to undermine American manufacturers,” Andy Park, the global chief executive officer of Hanwha Qcells, said in a statement. “We have repeatedly seen import volumes surge ahead of the implementation of significant U.S. trade or industrial policies, as companies seek to exploit loopholes and gain an unfair advantage before new measures take effect.”
“When it comes to fuels, we have plenty of options, but nothing has hit the jackpot.” That’s what Ernest Moniz, former President Barack Obama’as energy secretary, told me yesterday morning on stage at a Climate Week breakfast hosted by his nonprofit, the EFI Foundation. Just 21% of the world’s end-use energy comes from electricity, meaning 79% comes from molecules — mostly natural gas and oil. The point Moniz, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology-trained physicist, was making was that we need to take green fuels such as hydrogen and biodiesel more seriously. “My bet for scalability is some or multiple colors of hydrogen,” referring to the rainbow of names that denote how hydrogen fuel is produced. Hours later, Hydrogen Insight reported that the German energy giant Uniper had signed “one of the largest” offtake deals ever for aviation fuel made with green hydrogen. As part of the deal, the Düsseldorf-based firm will buy 40,000 metric tons of green fuels for at least the next decade.
The New York State Research and Development Authority announced awards for eight energy storage facilities and 13 large-scale renewable projects on Wednesday, totaling $3.7 billion in private investment. Combined, the projects are expected to pump out 1.7 gigawatts of power. “These newly-contracted large-scale energy projects not only further the growth of clean energy and more than double the utility-scale energy storage that exists currently statewide — but they contribute to New York’s comprehensive, all of the above energy strategy,” Doreen Harris, NYSERDA’s chief executive, said in a statement. “This will help reduce costs for New York ratepayers while continuing to improve the reliability of our state’s grid.”
Tales from a day of “thoughtful dialogues on energy, climate change, and human lives” on Day 3 of New York Climate Week.
“I’m here because I love thoughtful dialogues on energy, climate change, and human lives,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told my colleague Robinson Meyer this afternoon. “That’s been a passion my whole life, and nothing will change that.”
It’s our passion too — and was a defining theme of Heatmap House on Wednesday at New York Climate Week, with 27 sessions across topics including clean energy development, U.S. climate policy, the future of mobility, climate tech, and reindustrialization. From Wright backpedaling on President Trump’s embrace of a diesel export ban to former Vice President Al Gore asserting that 2026 might mark “the positive tipping point on climate,” it was a full day of news, contrarian opinions, juicy predictions, and lots and lots of coffee (consumed by yours truly).
Early in the day, Carlos Araque, the CEO and co-founder of Quaise, an advanced geothermal company, started things off by addressing the elephant in the room: potentially imminent movement on permitting reform. “It’s always easy to be picky and want for more,” he acknowledged, although he added that “my ask has always been — as far back as 2018 — if you can do for geothermal what you do for oil as in terms of regulatory permitting exclusions, then you’re moving 90% of the way to the goal. So that’s happening — that’s slowly and surely happening.”
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New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill also spoke about permitting reform at a local scale. “You cannot simply say to people, ‘Sorry, your bills are just going to keep skyrocketing,’” she stressed. “That is not the answer, which is why we’ve acted so aggressively. I approved 18 solar and battery storage projects in the first six months [of my term]. We knew the federal credits were going to run out if we did not get that done, so that’s why we had to take on permitting reform right away to make sure we were growing that.”
And while Jane Flegal, the principal at Flegal Energy Advisors, didn’t have any secret insight into the potential deal, she broke down her predictions into three buckets: reforms to conventional environmental statutes such as the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Water Act, and the National Historic Preservation Act; transmission, “which, no one knows what’s in there, but we all know what was in the Manchin deal, and I think we can and should expect something at least that ambitious;” and permitting certainty, which would constrain executive power to cancel permits after they’ve been issued.
Chris Hayes, the host of All In with Chris Hayes on MS NOW and a former climate reporter, took the stage just after Gore, who marked the 20-year anniversary of his Academy Award-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth. Like Gore, Hayes was in a reflective mood. “I think to some degree, we’re kind of moving forward in this understanding that all of us are implicated in the system that’s going to change very slowly over time,” he said, calling it one of the lessons of the past 20 years. “But I think there was a high-water mark of consumer activism that is sort of gone.”
Then, of course, there was Wright. The energy secretary — whom climate insiders have described to us as the biggest climate villain in the Trump administration after Trump himself — talked to Rob about as many fuels as they could cover. Wind: “There have been very spirited dialogues in the administration about this. I do believe a successful permitting reform thing changes the playing field for anything you want to build in this country, including wind.” Nuclear: “Our thing is just to try to get it back on its feet and get out of the way.” Natural gas: “Gas in my lifetime is going to be the American energy superpower for sure, but you never want all your eggs in one basket.” Batteries: “I’m all in.” And EVs: “Should we have the broader America subsidizing, you know, the habits of wealthy people? I don’t think we should.”
Electric vehicles also came up in our mobility session, of course, along with other forms of mobility including ferries, subways, and rail. “It’s not something we talk about very much in the U.S.,” Laura Fox, the co-founder and managing partner of Streetlife Ventures, told me, adding that “we have a really great rail freight network that is underutilized and that typically saves shippers 30% to 40% when they’re shipping goods in the current environment.” (Representative Mike Levin of California also shared that if he could only connect two places in his proposed giant high-performance rail system, “I’d like to see the line between Los Angeles and San Diego solidified.”)
The evening wrapped with a focus on reindustrialization. Tom Steyer, the co-executive chair of Galvanize Solutions, told us he’s doing fine after his unsuccessful bid for California governor. (Nothing a trip to Tahoe with the family couldn’t cure.) He also shared that the climate movement may have lessons for the modern movement opposing AI and data centers. The world’s richest companies can’t just “come in and take people’s water, especially at a time when people are so water insecure,” he stressed. “How could that possibly be right?”
AI — and water — also came up in conversation with Emilio Tenuta, the senior vice president and chief sustainability officer of Ecolab, which provides industrial and commercial water and hygiene solutions. (Ecolab also sponsored our reindustrialization section.) He argued that “what we really need to focus on is the Water Efficiency Index” when evaluating, for example, semiconductor fabrication plants, because it contextualizes water use in more absolute terms than traditional metrics.
Page Crahan, general manager of Tapestry, an Alphabet X moonshot project that uses AI to develop a model of the grid’s electricity network, zeroed in on how best to use artificial intelligence. “We had 10 years to build what it took us 110 years to build globally” in order to meet anticipated energy demand, she told my colleague Jael Holzman. “And that was in 2023, before data centers.” For “computationally intensive challenges, data-heavy challenges, and certainly running simulations and insights for a system this size,” AI is a good use case, she said.
Tapestry is using its models in partnership with PJM Interconnection (as we’ve covered here at Heatmap) — and speaking of PJM, its executive director of strategic policy and external affairs, Asim Haque, spoke to my colleague Matthew Zeitlin next. “If you do not bring your own new capacity, we are going to curtail you before we curtail your average residential consumer for sure,” he said, adding, “this is a concept that is pending in front of the FERC right now. We can talk about carrots. We can talk about sticks. I don’t know which one this is. I think from the data center perspective, it’s likely a stick.”
Josh Parker, the head of sustainability at Nvidia, rounded the day out on a positive note. “The good news is, we are very quickly unlocking new capacity with clean energy,” he said, including developing new clean energy technologies like advanced fission and geothermal. “All of these technologies are benefiting from AI, and so that, coupled with the fact that data center operators with AI factories generally are some of the largest consumers of clean energy and are still are looking for all the clean energy they can, leads me to believe — and I think this is the most credible forecast — that very soon we’re going to see all of that convert over to clean as soon as we can get through the supply constraints that we’re currently in.”
If you were with us in person, thank you again. You’re what made our event one to remember. And if you weren’t able to join us this year — we hope to see you in 2027.
But wait! Before I send you on your way, you can find all of our coverage of the day below along with some additional quotes from some of my favorite conversations:
The Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO made his case at Heatmap House.
Without billions in new federal investment the United States may lose its pole position in the global race to be the first nuclear fusion superpower, Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO Bob Mumgaard told attendees at Heatmap House in New York City.
When asked onstage whether Commonwealth Fusion could still develop its fusion aspirations at scale without U.S. government financing, Mumgaard said: “I think so – it’s a question of the timing and the place.” Then he suggested that the company — and the industry — might go elsewhere if the country doesn’t put more capital into the growing sector. “There are offers on the table to build nuclear fission power plants not in the United States, so we can do that.”
You’d be forgiven if you thought Commonwealth and nuclear fusion was already doing well. The Massachusetts-based pioneer in fusion technologies raised $1 billion in new investment just a couple months ago. Generally speaking, innovation in nuclear power is incredibly popular in Congress, which has an influential bipartisan Fusion Energy Caucus. Commonwealth has received public support from the Trump administration’s Energy Department, as has one of the Heatmap House sponsors, Inertia.
But we’re talking about nuclear fusion, a still-futuristic form of energy generation seeking to harness the power of stars exploding in contained environments. It’s an insanely promising tech moonshot.
Mumgaard said the company is aiming for its tech to provide electrons onto the grid by the 2030s. He also said a Fusion Industry Association request to Congress and the Trump administration for $10 billion of investment might be what’s needed for that power to be American first.
“We debated that [amount] with the industry association, and you have to say what gets the job done. It’s a disservice to lowball what’s needed,” he told my colleague Katie Brigham. “This is a very important thing. It’s an entirely new industry. Let’s treat it as such.”
He added his view that U.S. fusion development is essentially an energy security maneuver, and that competition with China on fusion should be seen as parallel to the race for dominance in artificial intelligence.
“Think about what it means in a technological race. Power is the thing that powers the next economy, right?” Mumgaard said. “All the geostrategic strife we have right now is about power in the form of natural resources. Who has them? What are they? What boats are they on through what body of water? Fusion takes all of that off the table.”