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On Greenland jockeying, Brazilian rare earth, and atomic British sea power

Current conditions: A geomagnetic storm triggered by what’s known as a coronal mass ejection in space could hit severe levels and disrupt critical infrastructure from southern Alabama to northern California • After weekend storms blanketed the Northeast in snow, Arctic air is pushing more snow into the region by midweek • Extreme heat in South America is fueling wildfires that have already killed 19 people in Chile.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump once again ratcheted up pressure on Denmark and the European Union to consider his bid to seize Greenland. In a post on Truth Social, the president announced punitive 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting on February 1, with plans to raise the levies to 25% by June. “We have subsidized Denmark, and all of the Countries of the European Union, and others, for many years by not charging them Tariffs, or any other forms of remuneration,” he wrote. “Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give back — World Peace is at stake!” In response, the EU has threatened to deploy its economic “big bazooka.” Known formally as the anti-coercion instrument, the policy came into force in 2023 to counter China’s attacks on Lithuania, and involves the imposition of sweeping trade sanctions, ousting the aggressor nation’s companies from the world’s second-largest market, and ending intellectual property protections. Economists told the Financial Times that a trade war over Greenland would risk sparking the worst financial crisis since the Great Recession.

Electricity generation is set to grow 1.1% this year and 2.6% in 2027, according to the latest short-term energy outlook report from the federal Energy Information Administration. Despite the Trump administration’s attacks on the industry, solar power will provide the bulk of that growth. The U.S. is set to add 70 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar in 2026 and 2027, representing a 49% increase in operating solar capacity compared to the end of 2025. While natural gas, coal, and nuclear combined accounted for 75% of all generation last year, the trio’s share of power output in 2027 is on track to slip to 72%. Solar power and wind energy, meanwhile, are set to rise from about 18% in 2025 to 21% in 2027.
Still, the solar industry is struggling to fend off the Trump administration’s efforts to curb deployments of what its top energy officials call unreliable forms of renewable power. As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last month, the leading solar trade association is pleading with Congress for help fending off a “near complete moratorium on permitting.”
Everybody wants to invest in critical minerals — including the Western Hemisphere’s second center of power. Brazil is angling for a trade deal with the U.S. to mine what the Financial Times called its “abundant but largely untapped rare earth deposits.” With tensions thawing between Trump and the government of leftwinger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, officials in the Brazilian administration see a chance to broker an agreement on the metals Washington needs for modern energy and defense technologies. “There’s nothing but opportunity here,” one official told the newspaper. “Brazil’s government is open to a deal on critical minerals.”
Northwest of Brazil, in Bolivia, the new center-right government is stepping up efforts to court foreign investors to develop its lithium resources. The country’s famous salt flats comprise the world’s largest known reserve of the key battery metal. But the leftist administration that ruled the Andean nation for much of the past two decades made little progress toward exploiting the resource under state-owned companies. The new pro-Washington government that took power after the October election has vowed to bring in the private sector. In what Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli last week called the government’s “first message to investors,” the administration vowed to honor all existing deals with Chinese and Russian companies, according to Mining.com.
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Last month, I told you about how swapping bunker fuel-burning engines for nuclear propulsion units in container ships could shave $68 million off annual shipping costs. That’s got real appeal to the British. Five industrial giants in the United Kingdom — Rolls-Royce, Babcock International Group, Global Nuclear Security Partners, Stephenson Harwood, and NorthStandard — have formed a new group called the Maritime Nuclear Consortium to boost British efforts to commercialize nuclear-powered cargo ships. “Without coordinated U.K. action, the chance to define the rules, create high-skilled jobs and anchor a global supply chain could be lost to faster competitors,” Lloyd's Register, a professional services company in London that provides maritime certifications, said in a statement to World Nuclear News. “Acting now would give the U.K. first-mover advantage, and ensure those standards, jobs and supply chains are built here.”
On the more standard atomic power front, the U.S. has officially inked its nuclear partnership deal with Slovakia, which I wrote about last week.
Sunrun has come out against the nascent effort to harvest the minerals needed for panels and batteries from metal-rich nodules in the pristine depths of the ocean. Last week, America’s largest residential solar and storage company signed onto a petition calling for a moratorium on deep-sea mining. The San Francisco-based giant joins Google, Apple, Samsung, BMW, Volvo, Salesforce, and nearly 70 other corporations in calling for a halt to the ongoing push at a little-known United Nations maritime regulator to establish permitting rules for mining in international waters. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange has written, there are real questions about whether the potential damage to one of the few ecosystems on Earth left untouched by human development is really worth it. Trump has vowed to go it alone on deep-sea mining if global regulators can’t come to agreement, as I wrote last year. But it’s unclear how quickly the biggest developer in the space, The Metals Company, could get the industry started. As You Sow, the advocacy group promoting the moratorium, said Sunrun’s signature “brings an important voice from the clean energy sector.”
The home electrification company Jetson, which makes smart thermostats and heat pumps, has raised $50 million in a Series A round. Founded less than two years ago, the company pulled in first-time funding from venture firms including Eclipse, 8VC, and Activate Capital, and saw at least two existing investors put in more money. “Heat pumps have worked for decades, but their cost and complexity have put them out of reach of most homeowners,” Stephen Lake, Jetson’s co-founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “We’re removing the friction by making the process digital, fast, and affordable while fully managing the purchase from start to finish. This funding will help us quickly bring this experience to more homeowners across the U.S. and Canada.”
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The founder of sustainable apparel company Zady argues that policy is the only that can push the industry toward more responsible practices.
Everlane’s reported sale to Shein has left many shocked and saddened. How could the millennial “radical transparency” fashion brand be absorbed by the company that has become shorthand for ultra-fast fashion? While I feel for the team within the company that cares about impact reduction, I am not surprised by the news.
Everlane was built around a theory of change that was always too small for the problem it claimed to address — that better brands and more conscientious consumers could redirect a coal-powered, chemically intensive, globally fragmented industry.
The theory had real appeal, but it was wrong. Yes, it created some better products, but it was never going to remake the fashion industry on its own.
This is the tension at the center of sustainable fashion: Consumer demand can create a niche, even a meaningful one, but it cannot reconfigure the economics of global supply chains. What is needed are common sense laws that require all significant players to play by the same basic rules: reduce emissions, ban toxic chemicals, and maintain basic labor standards.
A company I used to run, Zady, was an early competitor to Everlane, and we were part of the same cultural and commercial moment. When we raised money, we told investors that while our Boomer parents may have thought that changing the world meant marching on the streets, we knew better. Change was going to happen through business.
The problem was that, while our market was growing, fast fashion was growing faster. There was a small but passionate group of consumers trying to buy better, but the overall system drove companies to produce more — more units, more emissions, more chemicals, and more waste.
The truth is that brands do not have direct control over the environmental impacts of their products. Most of the emissions and applications of chemicals are not happening at the brand level, but are instead in fiber production, textile mills, dyehouses, finishing facilities, and laundries, all of which the brands do not own. These factories operate on the thinnest of margins, and the open secret is that brands share these suppliers. No one brand wants to pay the cost for their shared factories to make the necessary upgrades to address their impacts. It’s a classic collective action problem.
Everlane’s capital story matters here, too. Unless a founder arrives with substantial personal wealth, outside investment is often the only path to scale. A company can remain small, independent, and slow-growing, but then it will likely be more expensive, more limited in reach, and less able to influence factories.
Everlane chose the other path. It took institutional growth capital from storied venture firms more closely associated with the digital revolution (including some that also fund clean energy technologies) and became a recognizable national brand. This obligated the company to operate inside a financial structure that leads inexorably toward some kind of exit, whether through a sale, an initial public offering, or some other liquidity event. Once that is the operating system, sustainability can remain a real and important goal, but it is not the final governing logic — investor return is.
“Radical transparency” was never enough to solve the fashion industry’s or venture capital model’s structural problems. Naming a factory is not the same as knowing what happens inside it. Publishing a supplier list does not tell us whether the facility runs on coal, whether wastewater is treated before being released back into the ecosystem, or whether restricted substances are present in dyes, finishes, trims, or coatings.
We already have many forms of transparency in American capitalism. Public companies, for example, are required to disclose executive compensation and the average pay of their workers; this transparency has done exactly nothing to close the pay gap. A disclosure is not the same thing as a legal standard.
So what does this mean for all of us? We don’t know exactly how Shein will absorb Everlane. I could guess that this is a Quince play for Shein, a way to access higher-end consumers that would otherwise never go on the Shein site.
What this tragicomedy reveals is that the idea born from Obama-era optimism, that the arc of history naturally bends toward justice and sustainability, was ephemeral.
The work to make this coal-powered industry sustainable will come from regulation. The technology to decarbonize is there, and unlike with aviation, for instance, it would cost the apparel industry a mere 2 cents per cotton t-shirt to get it done. But unlike with aviation, there are no requirements or incentives that these investments be made, so they are not.
The electric vehicle industry got a head start through direct subsidies and fuel efficiency standards. Apparel needs the same.
If you’re disappointed or angry about this turn of events, I ask you to channel those feelings into citizenship. Help pass the New York or California Fashion Acts that would require all large fashion companies that sell into the states to reduce their emissions and ban toxic chemicals. It’s currently legal to have lead on adult clothing, and Shein is consistently found to have it on their products. The industry is pushing back through their trade associations, so people power is needed so that legislators know it needs to be their priority.
But if you want to shop sustainably, you don’t need a brand. What is most helpful is understanding your own style and lifestyle — that’s how we know what we actually need and what we don’t. There are apps to help on that front. (I love Indyx, for instance, but there are others.)
The only way forward is together, and that means political solutions — emissions requirements, chemical requirements, labor requirements — not just consumer ones.
On Tesla’s solar factory, Bolivia’s protests, and China’s hydrogen motorcycle
Current conditions: The East Coast heat wave is exposing more than 80 million Americans to temperatures near or above 90 degrees Fahrenheit through at least the end of today, putting grid operators who run PJM Interconnection and the New York electrical systems on high alert • Thunderstorms are drenching the United States’ southernmost capital city, Pago Pago, American Samoa, and driving temperatures up near 90 degrees • Some 3,600 miles north in the Pacific, Guam’s capital city of Hagåtña is in the midst of a week of even worse lightning storms.
American investment in low-carbon energy and transportation has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, ending an unbroken growth trend stretching back to 2019. In the first three months of 2026, total investment in those green sectors reached $61 billion, according to a Rhodium Group analysis published this morning. That’s a 3% drop from the previous quarter — and a 9% decline from the first three months of 2025. Contrary to the Trump administration’s claims to be overseeing a resounding revival of U.S. manufacturing, investments in clean technologies fell for a sixth consecutive quarter to $8 billion, down a whopping 34% from the first quarter of 2025. With federal tax credits for electric vehicles eliminated, investments into battery manufacturing plunged 47% year over year. At the state level, there’s been some progress. Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Michigan, and New York all recorded their largest year-over-year increases over the past four quarters as clean electricity investments at least doubled in each state. “Wind was the primary driver in Virginia, New Mexico, New York, and Colorado; and solar in Michigan and Oklahoma,” the report noted. Sales of electric vehicles, at least on a worldwide level, are also gaining momentum: the International Energy Agency released a report this morning that forecast 30% of global new car sales will be battery electric this year.
The Tuesday night primary elections in six U.S. states, meanwhile, offered mixed results for clean energy supporters. Representative Thomas Massie, the dissident Republican from northern Kentucky who repeatedly broke with his party to criticize President Donald Trump and boasted of his off-grid home’s solar and battery system, lost by double digits to his White House-backed rival. Pennsylvania’s state Representative Chris Rabb, a progressive would-be “Squad” member whose platform mirrors the Green New Deal movement’s key policy demands, won the Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District spanning parts of Philadelphia.

During an appearance on Fox News last week, investor and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary vowed to release documents showing that opponents of the data center complex he proposed building in the Utah desert received funding from China, suggesting the protesters seeking to thwart his $100 billion megaproject were useful idiots in Beijing’s bid to hamper America’s technological progress. Now Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum is echoing those claims. “It’s not organic and local,” he said Thursday on stage at the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference in Anchorage, where he was the keynote speaker. “Some of this is foreign-sourced dark money coming in.” The link between rising electricity prices and data centers, he said, was “specious.” He went on to cite a specific example of a small town in North Dakota, from when he served as the state’s governor, where a billion-dollar data center project ended up reducing costs for ratepayers by paying a premium to “buy down” the price households paid. It wasn’t immediately obvious which project he was referring to. But my best guess from some cursory research is that he may have meant the Applied Digital data center in Ellendale, along the southeastern border with South Dakota. In 2023, Prairie Public reported that the facility helped bring down transmission costs, reducing ratepayers’ bills by as much as $61 per year.
Burgum also suggested that Democrats were inflaming the data center issue for political gain. But opposition spans the political spectrum. Tom Steyer, the billionaire progressive running for governor of California, on Monday walked back a response to a candidate questionnaire published by Greenpeace, in which he said he supported a pause on data center development. In a statement to Politico, campaign spokesperson Kevin Liao said that while Steyer wants to ensure protections for electricity prices and water resources, he does not support a temporary ban.
It appears Elon Musk is more likely to follow through on his promise to build enough manufacturing capacity to churn out 100 gigawatts of solar panels in the U.S. than to sell 500,000 Cybertrucks a year. Tesla has selected a site just outside Houston for a new factory that will expand the company’s capacity to churn out panels in its home market. That’s according to Electrek, which said it had independently confirmed a tip from a source pointing the publication to the Brookshire, Texas, site. The plant will be co-located with a battery factory that is already under construction at the same site.
“Any level of commitment to onshore the entire supply chain is a positive sign for American solar manufacturing and supply chain security,” Yogin Kothari, the chief strategy officer at the SEMA Coalition trade group that advocates for U.S. solar manufacturers against cheap Chinese imports, told me in a text message Tuesday night. “We can make solar panels here — we just have to have the commitment to do it.”
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New Yorkers could receive $200 rebates from the state as part of Albany’s effort to soothe the pinch of rising electricity prices. On Tuesday, Newsday reported that the program would be part of the state budget agreement, which Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and the Democrat-led legislature are still working to finalize. It wouldn’t be the first check the Hochul administration is sending out to voters as the former lieutenant governor, who initially came to power when former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned over alleged sexual misconduct, runs for reelection in November. Last year, in a bid to combat the sting of inflation, the state issued rebates ranging from $150 to $400 depending on filing status and adjusted gross income in 2023.
Though it’s home to the world’s largest known reserves of lithium, landlocked Bolivia’s vast resources have largely remained undeveloped after two decades of rule by a left-wing government leery of foreign investment. The right-wing government that finally broke the Movimiento al Socialismo party’s grip on power in La Paz last year has sought to tap the so-called white gold in its salt flats, particularly as Washington looks for new sources of metals outside of supply chains China largely controls. New documents published Tuesday by the left-wing journalist Ollie Vargas appear to show the Bolivia’s Public Prosecutors Office’s warrants to arrest protesters and labor leaders connected to recent nationwide strikes on charges that include terrorism. “Bolivia’s government has ordered the arrest of all the main leaders of the indigenous movements and mineworkers unions,” Vargas wrote in a post on X. “They’re being charged for Terrorism for having organised the general strike against hunger. Strike continues regardless, now in day 7.” Clashes between law enforcement and protesters started last week.
China’s hydrogen industry is booming. Its sales of electrolyzers are beating out domestic manufacturers in Europe. Fuel cell vehicles are hitting the roads. Hydrogen refueling stations are opening. But the Chinese hydrogen sector with the highest volume of orders coming from overseas is for something simpler: Two-wheeled, hydrogen-powered motorcycles. That’s according to the latest China Hydrogen Bulletin, in which analyst Jian Wu reported from the 6th China International Consumer Products Expo on the island province of Hainan that a maker of the motorcycles had secured $300 million in overseas orders.
The maker of smart panels is tapping into unused grid capacity to help power the AI boom.
The race for artificial intelligence is a race for electricity. Data centers are scrambling to find enough power to run their servers, and when they do, they often face long waits while utilities upgrade the grid to accommodate the added demand.
In the eyes of Arch Rao, the CEO and founder of the smart electrical panel company Span, however, there is a glut of electricity waiting to be exploited. That’s because the electric grid is already oversized, designed to satisfy spikes in demand that occur for just a few hours each year. By shifting when and where different users consume power, it’s possible to squeeze far more juice out of the existing system, faster, and for a lot less money, than it takes to make it bigger.
This is what Span’s smart panel does — it manages the energy drawn by household appliances to help homeowners integrate electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps without triggering the need for electrical upgrades.
Now the age of AI has opened up new opportunities for the company. Last month, Span announced the launch of XFRA, a device that works with Span’s smart panel to power AI applications by tapping into the unused electrical capacity available to homes and businesses.
The company refers to XFRA as a “distributed data center.” It’s sort of like if you chopped up a full-scale data center into washing machine-sized boxes and plugged them into peoples’ homes; Span’s smart panel then acts as a conductor, orchestrating XFRA’s energy consumption to take advantage of unused power capacity without stepping on the home’s other energy needs. In exchange for hosting one of these XFRA “nodes,” Span will offer homeowners and tenants deeply discounted, if not free electricity and internet service.
The idea sounded audacious, verging on fantastical, until I watched the economics play out in real time at one of Span’s labs in a warehouse south of San Francisco. Ryan Harris, the company’s chief revenue officer, showed me an XFRA prototype — a metal box about the size of a freezer chest stuffed with Dell servers and Nvidia liquid-cooled GPUs. Span was renting out the processing power from this node and six others to AI users through an online marketplace. On a computer screen next to the unit, a dashboard showed the revenue flowing in from the fleet — $500 over the past 24 hours, and more than $21,000 in the previous three weeks. The numbers continued to tick up as I stood there.
When I first planned to write about Span, XFRA was still a secret. I reached out because its smart panel business, which debuted in 2019, seemed to suddenly take off.
In February, Span announced that PG&E, the largest utility in California, would be installing its devices in thousands of homes beginning this summer. Then in March, the company revealed a partnership with Eaton, one of the biggest legacy electrical equipment companies in the world. Eaton is investing $75 million in Span and will begin selling co-branded electrical panels to its extensive network of distributors, installers, and homebuilders later this year. With the launch of XFRA, Span is becoming something like a utility itself. To date, the company has raised more than $400 million, and will soon close a nearly $200 million Series C.
Of course it will take more than smart electrical panels to serve data centers’ soaring power needs. In this era of unprecedented energy demand growth, building a bigger electrical system is unavoidable — but the size of the investment, and the cost impacts on everyday electricity customers, are malleable. Several recent studies have shown just how big the opportunity is to get more energy out of our existing infrastructure if the entire system can become a bit more flexible.
Last year, Duke University researchers found that on average, the U.S. is utilizing only about half of our electricity generation capacity. Nationwide, they estimated, the grid could accommodate at least 76 gigawatts of new load — close to the total generation capacity installed in California — without having to upgrade the electrical system or build new power plants, so long as those new end-users were somewhat flexible with when and how much electricity they used.
More recently, in a report commissioned by a coalition called Utilize, of which Span is a member, the Brattle Group found that milking just 10% more from our existing grid infrastructure on an annual basis could reduce electricity rates for all end users by 3.4%. Utilities can sell more energy, faster, and spread the fixed costs of running the system across more customers.
What all this meant in practice did not fully click for me until I saw a demonstration of Span’s panel at the lab a few weeks ago. Harris, the CRO, led me to a free-standing wall lined with household appliances, a stripped-down version of an all-electric home. A minisplit heat pump whirred while a high-speed electric vehicle charger was juicing up a Rivian parked on the warehouse floor. A TV screen displayed the amount of power going to each device, as measured by Span’s electric panel.
Together, the heat pump and charger were using about two-thirds of the electric capacity of this demonstration home, which was running on a 100-amp utility service connection. The charger alone was using 48 amps.
The owner of this theoretical home would typically not have been allowed to install such an energy-intensive EV charger without upgrading to 200-amp service. Electric codes require that residential electrical systems have room for the rare scenario that a home’s major appliances all run at once, for safety reasons. Otherwise, the occupants might accidentally try to draw more power than their utility connection can deliver, overheat their wires, and start a fire. 100-amp connections are exceedingly common in homes designed to use gas or propane for cooking and heating, but once you replace those appliances with electric versions, or add an EV charger, you start to push the limit.
A service upgrade to 200 amps can take many months and cost several thousands of dollars. The utility typically has to run new wiring to the house, and might even have to augment the grid infrastructure serving the neighborhood.
Span’s smart panel offers an alternative.
“Shall we turn on some load?” Harris said. An engineer on Span’s product team turned on the demo home’s electric water heater, and I watched as the chart on the screen adjusted. The water heater jumped from zero to 22 amps, while the EV charger’s amperage decreased from 48 to 33. When the engineer switched on the clothes dryer, drawing 24 amps, the EV charger’s amperage dropped further.
The electrical panel was tracking how much power was flowing to each of its circuits and throttling the EV charger in response. When the team dialed up the electric stove to heat a pot of water, the EV charger shut off altogether.
Next, Harris requested a boost to the “garage” sub-panel, simulating a hot tub or some power tools kicking on. Soon, the water heater shut off, too. “You have 50 gallons of hot water, so it’s not going to have any negative impact on the customer in that moment,” Harris told me. He showed me an alert that appeared on the Span phone app notifying the homeowner that the system was temporarily limiting power to the EV charger and water heater in order to power other devices.
Users can choose which appliances the system bumps first. While some devices, such as EV chargers, water heaters, and heat pumps, have the ability to be ramped up and down, others will simply shut off.
At $2,550 excluding labor for the smallest, most basic smart panel, and just over $4,000 for the biggest one, Span is more expensive than the average dumb panel, which can come in under $1,000. Depending on the home and the complexity of a service upgrade, however, it’s often cheaper to install Span than to move to 200 amps. It’s also almost certainly faster.
Span’s first generation product couldn’t do any of this. Initially, the company’s value proposition was just to give people more control over their energy usage. The original Span panel gave homeowners with batteries the ability to select which devices they wanted to power during an outage and ensure they didn’t accidentally lose charge on non-essentials. The company had to build an initial customer base and validate the technology in the real world, Rao told me, before it could earn the credibility (and the capital) to deploy the fully realized version of the product.
In 2023, Span debuted “PowerUp,” the software that makes what I witnessed at the lab possible. With PowerUp, Span’s smart panel went from being a cool gadget to a money-saver, helping homeowners skip utility service upgrades. The success of PowerUp opened the door for Span to engage with larger partners, starting with homebuilders.
“We had to demonstrate that we were safe and scalable in the home retrofit category to then get homebuilders — who are typically very, very cost sensitive, are not often at the tip of the spear in terms of technology adoption — to say, this is a proven technology, and it saves you money,” said Rao.
Residential developers face similar problems as homeowners, but on a bigger scale. While 200-amp connections have become more standard over the past few decades, new electrical codes that require either fully electric or electric-ready construction are pushing the limits.
“Now the load calculations will put them at 300 or 400 amps of service per home,” Rao told me. “Multiply that by a community of 500 homes, and suddenly you’ve doubled the amount of interconnection you need to bring from the utility.”
This raises the cost of development, and it can also increase the wait time — potentially by years — to get hooked up to the grid. Again, Span offers an alternative. To date, nearly half of the top 20 homebuilders across the U.S. have used the company’s technology, Rao told me. More broadly, its electrical panels have been installed in tens of thousands of homes in all 50 states.
I should note that Span is not the only solution on the market for homeowners or homebuilders to avoid service upgrades — the main alternative is just choosing appliances that don’t use so much power. There are water heaters, clothes dryers, and EV chargers on the market that run on lower amperage, and startups like Copper and Impulse Labs are making stoves with integrated batteries that enable them to do the same. There are also Span-adjacent technologies such as smart circuit splitters that let you plug two power-hungry devices, like an EV charger and a clothes dryer, into the same circuit, and the device will safely modulate power between the two.
“You can hack your way around both problems — one, of a panel upgrade, and two, a Span upgrade, which is also expensive — with cheaper solutions,” Brian Stewart, the co-founder of Electrify Now, a group that provides education and advocacy on home electrification, told me. “But it’s less elegant, let’s just say, than the Span solution.”
Though he started at the home level, Rao has always had his sights set on a much bigger customer — utilities. Several Span executives I spoke to referenced an “infamous” Powerpoint slide from the early days of the company with a bar chart that showed how the company would scale in three phases. First came “back-up,” referring to Span’s initial home battery management product. Next was “power-up,” the software that enabled electrification by avoiding service upgrades. The third was “fleet.”
The same safety principles that trigger service upgrades at individual homes also apply upstream at the neighborhood level. For example, the size of a neighborhood’s transformer, the equipment that changes the voltage of the electricity as it moves along the grid, depends on the combined amperage of the homes it serves. If all those homes are installing EV chargers or heat pumps or whatever else and starting to use more electricity, the utility will have to upgrade the transformer — a cost that gets spread across all of its customers. If a critical mass of the homes have Span panels, however, they can avoid this.
Partnering with major homebuilders earned Span “the right to sit at the table with utilities,” Rao told me, “and say, look, we’ve done this at the home level, at the community level. Imagine if you could do this at the grid level, where the benefit doesn’t just accrue to individual customers or home builders, it can accrue to all rate payers?”
I got a taste of what this looks like back at the lab, where Harris showed me Span’s “fleet capability.” There were actually three demonstration homes set up on the warehouse floor, and Harris showed me how a utility could coordinate a response across multiple Span panels to keep a neighborhood within its safe energy limits.
Imagine it’s a really hot day, and the utility is on the verge of having to institute rolling blackouts. Instead, it can implement what’s called a dynamic service rating event, sending a signal out to the Span panels served by a given transformer to reduce their electrical limit from 100 amps to 60, for example. Rather than the entire neighborhood losing power, a few homes would see their EV charging cut back or their thermostats go up by a few degrees. Of course, not everybody will want to give this kind of control to the utility; customers often cite concerns about comfort and convenience as reasons they are skeptical of these kinds of programs. When I asked Harris whether participating would require that Span customers opt in, he said it was more likely to be opt-out.
Span has done several pilot projects testing this capability. Installing electrical panels is too complex for utilities to do en masse, though. So the company developed Span Edge, a smaller version of its panel that can be installed at a building’s electricity meter. It does all the same things the larger electrical panel does, without needing to serve as the home’s central nervous system. It still enables homeowners to avoid service upgrades by throttling EV chargers or whatever other devices are hooked up to it, but it’s much simpler to install.
This is the device that the California utility PG&E will begin deploying in homes later this summer. The company will offer Span Edge to homeowners who are installing appliances that might trigger an electrical upgrade, or are considering doing so in the future, through a program called PanelBoost. It’s entirely voluntary, and while participants will have to pay for installation, the panel itself comes gratis.
“This is the first time that there’s a large-scale direct purchase of Span equipment by a utility,” Alex Pratt, Span’s vice president of business development, told me. “This has long been the North Star for the company.”
Paul Doherty, the manager for clean energy and innovation communications at PG&E, told me the company saw Span Edge as a “win, win, win for PG&E, for our customers, and for the environment.” It enables customers to electrify their homes more quickly and affordably, and for PG&E to sell more electrons without raising rates.
“We’re very bullish about the opportunity for this technology and the benefit that it will bring for the grid and for our customers here in California,” Doherty told me.
Rao sees XFRA as a natural evolution of Span’s basic premise. The company has found that 98% of its customers that have 200-amp service connections have about 80 amps available at any given time, Harris told me. Hosting an XFRA node enables homeowners to monetize that unused capacity.
To start, Span is prioritizing getting XFRA into newly built homes, where the developer handles customer acquisition and installing at scale is straightforward since every home is roughly the same. The company has partnered with the developer PulteGroup to roll out a 100-home pilot program for a total of over 1.2 megawatts of compute capacity. The partners have not specified where it will be yet or whether there will be a single offtaker for the compute.
In the longer term, Rao told me, XFRA could be the “unlock” that makes electrification more affordable for people. “There is a utopian end state in my mind where XFRA allows more of our customers to get free energy, free backup, and free internet,” he said.
First, the company will have to find out if anyone is actually willing to let XFRA into their home. During my final conversation with the CEO, after my lab visit, he showed me the infamous slide forecasting the company’s growth from “back-up to power-up to fleet.” The y-axis on the chart showed the number of homes per year the company could address at each stage. The bar for back-up systems landed at 5,000 per year, Power-up came to nearly 100,000. Suffice it to say, Span hasn’t hit these numbers.
“Are you where you want to be today?” I asked him.
Of course, he wasn’t going to say no. “We have contracts in place for hundreds of thousands of homes already with utilities,” he said. “Right now our focus is on execution — delivering on that scale, as opposed to finding that scale. It’s a deployed product, it’s not a downloadable app, so it takes time to physically deploy hundreds of thousands of endpoints. So I think that scale is coming.”