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On firefighting, clean energy tax credits, and the Olympics.
Current conditions:A heat dome is bringing scorching temperatures to parts of the Great Plains and the American Southwest • Typhoon Gaemi triggered a mudslide in southeast China, killing at least 15 • It’s 70 degrees and humid in Caracas, where both Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his rivals have claimed victory in Sunday’s heavily disputed election.
The Park Fire has burned 360,000 acres since Wednesday, making it the largest active fire in the country and the seventh-largest in California’s history. Evacuation orders have now been issued for four nearby counties, with heavy smoke rolling into Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. Windy conditions and steep slopes allowed the blaze to expand rapidly, but cooler, wetter air on Sunday aided firefighters’ efforts. As of Sunday evening, the fire was only 12% contained.
Firefighters work to contain the Park Fire’s eastern front in Chico, California. Photo by David McNew/Getty Images.
Climate change has made California’s summers hotter and dryer, increasing the frequency of large wildfires by an estimated 25%. Case in point: extreme heat this summer provided the Park Fire with lots of dry vegetation to consume.
When the Inflation Reduction Act made clean energy tax credits transferable, it set the conditions for a whole new market for those who earn the tax credits (clean energy developers and investors) and those who want them (anyone who wants relief from a large tax bill). In its mid-year market intelligence report, Crux, one of the leading platforms for tax credit transfers, projected that 2024 would see $20 billion to $25 billion such transactions in total, up from $7 billion to $9 billion last year.
Before the IRA, clean energy tax credits were restricted to the companies that earned them. That limited their usefulness, as some developers and investors didn’t pay enough taxes to claim the full benefit. Transferability has drawn a wider range of participants into the market, writes Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin. And expect much more in the years to come — investment bank Evercore is projecting that the market for tax credit trading could hit $100 billion by 2030.
The surfing competition at the 2024 Paris Olympics has been dogged by concerns over its impact on the environment and the local population of Tahiti, a French overseas territory known for its pristine beaches and vibrant coral reefs. Plans to construct new housing and a large observational tower aroused opposition, with locals voicing concern over how the new developments would disrupt the marine and terrestrial ecosystems.
The competition is now underway, though with a smaller footprint. Nearly 100% of on-land housing needs will be met by renting out existing structures, and the observational tower has been scaled down. And the athletes? They aresleeping on a 413-foot cruise ship anchored off the shore of the island. The changes have quieted some criticism, but concerns remain over the impact of the tower. As for the cruise ship solution, said French Polynesian President Moetai Brotherson, “It’s unusual, but they seem to like it.”
An image of French athlete Joan Duru surfing at Teahupo'o, projected on a wall in Paris’ Montmartre. Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images.
United States Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen flew to Brazil this weekend for a meeting of G20 finance ministers. On Saturday, she delivered a speech touting a new partnership with the Brazilian Ministry of Finance to combat climate change and urging more global cooperation. The transition to a low-carbon economy is, she said, “the single greatest economic opportunity of the twenty-first century.” Yellen urged G20 leaders to invest in this transition, to the tune of $3 trillion in new capital — annually — between now and 2050.
The Department of the Treasury has been central to the Biden-Harris administration’s climate strategy, providing key guidance on the many tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act. In Brazil, Yellen encouraged her counterparts to “harness the power of markets” to speed up the energy transition.
A year ago, London Mayor Sadiq Khan expanded the Ultra Low Emission Zone, a bounded area that uses fees to strictly limit vehicle traffic, to the entire city. According to newly released data, air pollutants like nitrogen oxide and particulate matter dropped dramatically in the six months that followed. Khan said the decision to expand the zone was “a difficult one, but the right one.” It’s a new piece of evidence about the effectiveness of congestion pricing, less than two months after New York Governor Hochul paused a similar policy in New York City.
“We will be creating so much electricity that you’ll be saying, ‘Please, please, President, we don’t want any more electricity. We can’t stand it.’ You’ll be begging me, ‘No more electricity, sir. We have enough. We have enough.’” — Donald Trump, in a keynote speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, perhaps obliquely referring to the need for new energy transmission and storage infrastructure.
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Plus 3 more outstanding questions about this ongoing emergency.
As Los Angeles continued to battle multiple big blazes ripping through some of the most beloved (and expensive) areas of the city on Thursday, a question lingered in the background: What caused the fires in the first place?
Though fires are less common in California during this time of the year, they aren’t unheard of. In early December 2017, power lines sparked the Thomas Fire near Ventura, California, which burned through to mid-January. At the time it was the largest fire in the state since at least the 1930s. Now it’s the ninth-largest. Although that fire was in a more rural area, it ignited for many of the same reasons we’re seeing fires this week.
Read on for everything we know so far about how the fires started.
Five major fires started during the Santa Ana wind event this week:
Officials have not made any statements about the cause of any of the fires yet.
On Thursday morning, Edward Nordskog, a retired fire investigator from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department, told me it was unlikely they had even begun looking into the root of the biggest and most destructive of the fires in the Pacific Palisades. “They don't start an investigation until it's safe to go into the area where the fire started, and it just hasn't been safe until probably today,” he said.
It can take years to determine the cause of a fire. Investigators did not pinpoint the cause of the Thomas Fire until March 2019, more than two years after it started.
But Nordskog doesn’t think it will take very long this time. It’s easier to narrow down the possibilities for an urban fire because there are typically both witnesses and surveillance footage, he told me. He said the most common causes of wildfires in Los Angeles are power lines and those started by unhoused people. They can also be caused by sparks from vehicles or equipment.
At about 27,000 acres burned, these fires are unlikely to make the charts for the largest in California history. But because they are burning in urban, densely populated, and expensive areas, they could be some of the most devastating. With an estimated 2,000 structures damaged so far, the Eaton and Palisades fires are likely to make the list for most destructive wildfire events in the state.
And they will certainly be at the top for costliest. The Palisades Fire has already been declared a likely contender for the most expensive wildfire in U.S. history. It has destroyed more than 1,000 structures in some of the most expensive zip codes in the country. Between that and the Eaton Fire, Accuweather estimates the damages could reach $57 billion.
While we don’t know the root causes of the ignitions, several factors came together to create perfect fire conditions in Southern California this week.
First, there’s the Santa Ana winds, an annual phenomenon in Southern California, when very dry, high-pressure air gets trapped in the Great Basin and begins escaping westward through mountain passes to lower-pressure areas along the coast. Most of the time, the wind in Los Angeles blows eastward from the ocean, but during a Santa Ana event, it changes direction, picking up speed as it rushes toward the sea.
Jon Keeley, a research scientist with the US Geological Survey and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles told me that Santa Ana winds typically blow at maybe 30 to 40 miles per hour, while the winds this week hit upwards of 60 to 70 miles per hour. “More severe than is normal, but not unique,” he said. “We had similar severe winds in 2017 with the Thomas Fire.”
Second, Southern California is currently in the midst of extreme drought. Winter is typically a rainier season, but Los Angeles has seen less than half an inch of rain since July. That means that all the shrubland vegetation in the area is bone-dry. Again, Keeley said, this was not usual, but not unique. Some years are drier than others.
These fires were also not a question of fuel management, Keeley told me. “The fuels are not really the issue in these big fires. It's the extreme winds,” he said. “You can do prescription burning in chaparral and have essentially no impact on Santa Ana wind-driven fires.” As far as he can tell, based on information from CalFire, the Eaton Fire started on an urban street.
While it’s likely that climate change played a role in amplifying the drought, it’s hard to say how big a factor it was. Patrick Brown, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, published a long post on X outlining the factors contributing to the fires, including a chart of historic rainfall during the winter in Los Angeles that shows oscillations between very wet and very dry years over the past eight decades. But climate change is expected to make dry years drier in Los Angeles. “The LA area is about 3°C warmer than it would be in preindustrial conditions, which (all else being equal) works to dry fuels and makes fires more intense,” Brown wrote.
And more of this week’s top renewable energy fights across the country.
1. Otsego County, Michigan – The Mitten State is proving just how hard it can be to build a solar project in wooded areas. Especially once Fox News gets involved.
2. Atlantic County, New Jersey – Opponents of offshore wind in Atlantic City are trying to undo an ordinance allowing construction of transmission cables that would connect the Atlantic Shores offshore wind project to the grid.
3. Benton County, Washington – Sorry Scout Clean Energy, but the Yakima Nation is coming for Horse Heaven.
Here’s what else we’re watching right now…
In Connecticut, officials have withdrawn from Vineyard Wind 2 — leading to the project being indefinitely shelved.
In Indiana, Invenergy just got a rejection from Marshall County for special use of agricultural lands.
In Kansas, residents in Dickinson County are filing legal action against county commissioners who approved Enel’s Hope Ridge wind project.
In Kentucky, a solar project was actually approved for once – this time for the East Kentucky Power Cooperative.
In North Carolina, Davidson County is getting a solar moratorium.
In Pennsylvania, the town of Unity rejected a solar project. Elsewhere in the state, the developer of the Newton 1 solar project is appealing their denial.
In South Carolina, a state appeals court has upheld the rejection of a 2,300 acre solar project proposed by Coastal Pine Solar.
In Washington State, Yakima County looks like it’ll keep its solar moratorium in place.
And more of this week’s top policy news around renewables.
1. Trump’s Big Promise – Our nation’s incoming president is now saying he’ll ban all wind projects on Day 1, an expansion of his previous promise to stop only offshore wind.
2. The Big Nuclear Lawsuit – Texas and Utah are suing to kill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s authority to license small modular reactors.
3. Biden’s parting words – The Biden administration has finished its long-awaited guidance for the IRA’s tech-neutral electricity credit (which barely changed) and hydrogen production credit.