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On accelerating nuclear energy, power plant emissions, and BYD

Current conditions: Southern Spain will endure multiple days over 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week • Nearly 4 inches of rain could fall in parts of southwestern China on Tuesday • It will be almost 90 degrees in New Orleans again today after high temperatures triggered widespread brownouts in the region over the weekend.
President Trump signed four executive orders Friday designed to accelerate the build-out of nuclear power in the U.S. The orders specifically call on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to speed up its approval of new reactors; relax radiation exposure limits; explore using federal lands and military bases as potential reactor sites; and grow the nation’s nuclear energy capacity from approximately 100 gigawatts in 2024 to 400 gigawatts by 2050. The orders also describe putting 10 new large reactors into construction no later than 2030 with the support of the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office — including having at least one operational reactor at a domestic military base no later than September 2028. “Mark this day on your calendar,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at the signing on Friday, per The New York Times. “This is going to turn the clock back on over 50 years of overregulation.”
At the same time, the administration’s ambitious goals come against a backdrop of reduced “personnel and funding for the NRC and the Department of Energy, along with weakening the NRC’s independence and global credibility,” Jennifer T. Gordon, the director of the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, writes — all of which will “make it challenging to realize the full potential of the U.S. nuclear energy industry.”

The Environmental Protection Agency is poised to propose that greenhouse gases emitted from fossil fuel-burning power plants “do not contribute significantly to dangerous pollution” or climate change, The New York Times reported Saturday, based on a review of an internal draft of the document. The EPA’s rationale in the proposal is that the emissions from the sector are small enough that their elimination would have no impact on public health — although according to the agency’s own accounting in 2022, the power sector is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, behind only transportation.
The move by the EPA, while in keeping with the Trump administration’s deregulatory ambitions, also serves to justify its pending proposal to “repeal all greenhouse gas emissions standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants,” including coal-powered units. Previously, the agency had argued that Biden-era restrictions on coal- and gas-fired plants could prevent up to 1,200 deaths and 1,900 cases of asthma per year.

BYD announced steep discounts on 22 of its electric and plug-in hybrid models between now and the end of June, with some price cuts as big as 34%, Bloomberg reports. The company’s cheapest car, the Seagull hatchback, is down to just $7,780, while the Seal hybrid sedan saw the steepest discount of more than $7,000, to a mere $14,270. Shares of BYD closed down 8.6% after the announcement.
BYD’s cuts aim to boost customer demand, with Citi analysts anticipating the discounts could increase dealership foot traffic by 30% to 40% week on week. But the analysts also appeared skeptical that the move by BYD would be hugely beneficial to the company in its price war with rival EV automaker, noting “competition remains relatively mild.”
South Africa has proposed a liquified natural gas trade package with the United States, following a contentious meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Trump last week, Reuters reports. The deal would see South Africa import 75 to 100 petajoules of LNG annually from the U.S. over a 10-year period. Though South Africa currently does not have an LNG import terminal, the government plans to build one at the Port of Richards Bay, with the first phase going online by 2027, in order to lessen its reliance on the dwindling supply via pipeline from Mozambique. The U.S. will reportedly also help South Africa explore fracking opportunities within South Africa; the Karoo region of the country is believed to hold shale reserves, though drilling has been held off due to concerns about contaminating the water supply.
The trade package additionally includes an agreement for South Africa to avoid paying a duty on imports of cars, steel, and aluminum. According to Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, who shared details of the deal, it will amount to $900 million to $1.2 billion in trade per year.
President Trump on Friday urged the United Kingdom to “stop with the costly and unsightly windmills and incentivize modernized drilling in the North Sea, where large amounts of oil lay waiting to be taken,” the Associated Press reports. Trump specifically cited Aberdeen as a potential hub for the “century of drilling left” — the same Scottish city where his Trump International Golf Links golf course is located, and where he unsuccessfully opposed the building of 11 offshore turbines before he became president. Despite Trump’s frequent complaints that turbines are eyesores, the BBC reported this weekend that wind farms have become an “unusual” and “surprisingly popular” tourist attraction in the UK.
Four former Volkswagen executives were found guilty of fraud in Germany on Monday for their role in the 2015 “dieselgate” emissions test cheating scandal.
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The companies just launched a major VPP play.
For all the hype surrounding virtual power plants, they’re still a niche player on the U.S. electric grid. A new partnership between three of the biggest residential energy companies in the country — Tesla, Sunrun, and Renew Home — aims to recast VPPs into a leading role.
The companies announced on Wednesday that they have more than 16 gigawatts of dispatchable VPP capacity available today to deliver to utilities and data center developers throughout the country. That’s about the same as 16 nuclear reactors, except instead of generating power round the clock from a central plant, the companies aggregate unused electricity capacity from thousands of individual home solar and battery systems and programmable thermostats, and can make it available for several hours at a time.
Today, the companies bid these resources into electricity markets as a sort of bespoke grid service. A few times per year — often in the summer months when demand spikes — the grid operator in California might ask Sunrun to switch on its VPP to prevent a blackout. That means Sunrun’s rooftop solar and battery customers all either begin exporting excess power to the grid or rely more on their energy storage systems for their own power needs, reducing strain on the grid. Tesla operates similar programs, some in partnership with Sunrun. Renew Home, which spun out of Google Nest, does the same thing but with thermostats and water heaters, nudging temperatures on thousands of devices up or down during peak demand hours.
“A lot of our assets are enrolled in a contract where they can be used up to 20 times per year,” Paul Dickson, the president and chief revenue officer of Sunrun, told me. Now the company, along with its partners, are making the pitch to utilities and hyperscalers to view VPPs as 365-day resources, and more fully integrate them into their grid planning.
It’s a “turnkey” solution, the companies wrote in a press release, “deployable in months, not years,” that requires “no additional hardware, software, interconnection, water, or land usage for offtaking parties.”
VPPs also typically kick back some of the proceeds they earn from the electricity market to the residential customers hosting the solar panels, batteries, and programmable thermostats providing the power, meaning they can meet growing energy demand while helping to lower household energy bills. Sunrun and Renew Home paid out a combined $67 million in customer rewards last year.
About 60% of the 16 gigawatts the companies have available are tied to Renew Home’s enrolled devices, with the remaining 40% coming from Sunrun and Tesla’s solar and battery assets, Dickson told me. The capacity is also spread out geographically. There’s about 1.7 gigawatts available in Texas — the second largest data center market in the country, Dickson pointed out. There’s 300 megawatts available in Virginia, which the companies expect to grow to 500 megawatts by 2030.
“Unlike a traditional power plant that's fixed in size, this number grows every single day as the combined three companies continue to add additional capacity,” Dickson said. Sunrun alone plans to more than double its energy storage capacity by the end of 2028.
If utilities and large industrial customers buy the VPP pitch, the companies will be able to expand even more quickly, he added. If regulators or utilities come back and say, we’ll take your existing capacity today, and if you can add another gigawatt in the next year, here’s what we’ll pay, Sunrun could potentially reduce the upfront cost to customers to host the solar and battery installations, driving faster adoption.
The new partnership follows a similar announcement earlier this month from the VPP company Voltus, which signed a three-year agreement with Google. Voltus will provide up to 100 megawatts per year of capacity for Google in PJM, the country’s largest (and most constrained) electricity market covering much of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. In that case, however, Voltus is using the deal with Google to finance the VPP, with the capacity set to come online by 2027.
The Tesla/Sunrun/Renew Home group is simply announcing they are open for business — they haven’t signed up any offtakers yet. Dickson told me the companies wanted to “make everybody aware that there is this uncontracted capacity, and make sure that it goes to the place that it can be most impactful.” Wednesday’s announcement is accompanied by a live map that shows where the capacity is. The companies did, however, already bid over a gigawatt of capacity into PJM, the larger energy market that Virginia is a part of, as part of its emergency procurement to meet near-term load growth in the region, and are waiting to hear if they were selected.
Last year, the electrification advocacy group Rewiring America published a paper arguing that hyperscalers could free up grid capacity for at least a third of the load growth expected from data centers if they paid for residential households to get heat pumps. All of that capacity would simply be the result of swapping inefficient appliances for more efficient versions, reducing the overall energy use of the homes. If hyperscalers also financed residential solar and storage upgrades, they could more than meet data center demand, the report posited.
That’s not how these VPP proposals are going to work — residential customers will still have to pay something to Sunrun and Tesla for their solar panels and batteries. But Ari Matusiak, the founder and CEO of Rewiring America, told me he viewed these new VPP partnerships as a step in that direction. Today, energy markets are largely bifurcated between residential market activity and large industrial customers. “Where we are going is toward a world where we think about the household as actual energy infrastructure and not simply an end of the line billpayer,” he said. “Once you start doing that, it changes the economics of how those household upgrades are treated and what the opportunities are.”
Current conditions: The warehouse fire in Boyle Heights is raging for a third day, spewing dark smoke over the Downtown Los Angeles skyline • The death toll from Western Europe’s heatwave has reached into the dozens • An 18-wheeler carrying more than 400 beehives overturned in eastern Texas and filled a small neighborhood with more than 2 million honeybees.
Wally World is soon to be powered by the atom. On Tuesday, Walmart announced a 15-year deal with Constellation, the nation’s largest operator of nuclear plants, for a chunk of the electricity coming from the Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The agreement included about 176 megawatts of wholesale supply from the two-reactor station southwest of Chicago, including 30 megawatts of expanded generating capacity through “uprates” — upgrades that allow operators to get more power out of an existing unit. Over the past two years, tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta, have bought shares of the power coming from nuclear power stations as the companies sought steady supplies of clean electricity for their burgeoning data centers. But the Walmart deal stands out as one of the first to involve a major brick-and-mortar retailer. “We’re constantly evaluating new capabilities and energy solutions that help ensure the electricity we rely on is dependable, responsibly produced, and built to support long-term growth,” Shayne Wahlmeier, Walmart’s senior vice president of energy, said in a statement.
The Trump administration just unveiled one of its biggest bets on nuclear power yet. The Department of Energy announced $17.5 billion in low-interest loans for utilities to pay for the equipment needed to order new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. The program marks arguably the most significant effort yet to reclaim U.S. control over its flagship reactor design. While the two 1,100-megawatt units completed at Southern Company’s Alvin W. Vogtle Generating Station in 2023 and 2024 were the first installed in the U.S., China has been building its own version of the reactors at an industrial scale for years. The program will support up to 10 reactors, including two per venture with as many as five utilities. The power companies, currently in talks with the administration, have not yet been named. But Dan Sumner, the chief executive of Westinghouse Electric, told The Wall Street Journal the deal “really kick-starts fleet-scale nuclear development in the United States.” As my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote last night: “I hesitate to praise the project's climate bonafides at the risk of discouraging the Trump administration, but it is worth noting that if this project were to succeed, it would be one of the largest state-assisted build-outs of zero-carbon electricity in recent American history. But it would still take some time to arrive: These reactors aren’t forecast to come online til 2035.”
Yet another behemoth solar farm has come online. On Tuesday, the developer rPlus Energies said its Green River Energy Center had started operations. The facility in central Utah with 400-megawatts of solar panels and 1,600 megawatt-hours of batteries is now the largest solar-and-storage plant within PacifiCorp’s six-state territory out west, including Oregon, Washington, California, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho. “Operation Gigawatt is about ensuring Utah has the reliable, homegrown energy needed to power opportunity for generations,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, said in a statement. “Green River Energy Center represents the kind of large-scale energy investment we need to deliver reliable energy, support rural Utah, and help power the next generation of prosperity across our state.”
The opening comes as solar is now generating more U.S. power than coal, as I told you recently.
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The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that Exxon Mobil has the right to sue a Cuban-owned company to recoup more than $70 million in 1960 dollars from an oil complex seized by the Cuban government after Fidel Castro’s revolution. Havana later transferred the ownership of the refinery, terminals, plants, and service stations to Corporación Cimex, the state-owned conglomerate. The lawsuit could now see the oil major try to recover more than $1 billion in losses. “Today’s decision is a critical moment in a 60 year effort to be compensated for what the Cuban government illegally seized,” Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler told E&E News in an emailed statement. “It reflects two things: the merits of our argument and the fact that our company will fight a good fight for as long as it takes.”
The Trump administration understands the importance of refining cobalt — that’s why, as I reported last year, the Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency is pumping money into a startup that promises a new and cheap way to process the mineral. Canada’s Sherritt International started shutting down its Fort Saskatchewan refinery after the U.S. expanded sanctions on Cuba, halting exports of a feedstock supply needed for the plant in Alberta, Canada. The move, in addition to the Supreme Court ruling, come amid intensifying pressure by Washington on the Cuban regime.
California is once again following a New York trend. Just weeks after Albany sued to stop the Trump administration’s bid to pay TotalEnergies to give up its offshore wind projects, Sacramento is joining the litigation. “At a time when the country needs more reliable and sustainable power supply, the Trump Administration is busy using taxpayer money to strike backroom buyouts that make clean-energy projects disappear,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a statement. “California won’t stand idly by as the Trump Administration illegally strikes deals to kill offshore wind projects and replace them with more windfalls for his fossil fuel friends; we’re putting the Administration on notice that we intend to sue.”
Rob checks in with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston as the Iran War (hopefully) draws to a close.
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, experts projected oil prices would go to $200 a barrel. But then… they didn’t. In fact, while gasoline prices rose in the United States, and Europe and Asia suffered higher costs, the resulting energy crisis wasn’t even as bad as what followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Why? China. The country seems to have absorbed the costs of Trump’s war of choice by releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from its strategic stockpile. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, an oil markets researcher and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. They discuss China’s massive (and quiet) intervention, why it’s “the most important thing we learned” from the Iran War, and what it means for the future of energy and geopolitics. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Mentioned:
China Oil Demand Doubts, Rory’s 2023 article about Chinese strategic stockbuilding
Previously on Shift Key: Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis, featuring Rory
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.