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Congress has left well enough alone, but that doesn’t mean funds are necessarily flowing.
The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have done a pretty good job working in tandem to tear down American climate policy. But one key set of clean energy programs has remained relatively unscathed.
The Inflation Reduction Act’s two home energy efficiency rebate programs — one for carbon-cutting appliances and one for whole-home efficiency upgrades — have not been targeted for agency termination or Congressional repeal, or at least not to date.
Still, that doesn’t mean they haven’t run into roadblocks. The rebate programs are paid for by the federal government and administered by states, which have to apply for the funding and stand up programs to disburse it. While the Biden administration had obligated funding to all 49 states that applied for it, only a small handful of states had fully executed contracts enabling them to use the money by the time Biden left office. The rest are now being stonewalled by the Department of Energy, which is still undertaking a “review” of Biden-era funding decisions. Some officials are wondering whether they’ll ever get their applications approved.
Vermont, for example, is stuck in a holding pattern for its Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates, or HEAR program. HEAR provides low- and moderate-income households cash back on appliances like heat pumps and induction stoves, as well as on insulation, air sealing, and electrical upgrades. The Biden administration “conditionally” approved Vermont’s $58 million application, which focused almost exclusively on heat pumps, according to Melissa Bailey, the director of efficiency and energy resources at the Vermont Department of Public Service. It’s not clear that anything in the application is deficient or needs to be changed, she told me. But the new administration has been unresponsive about next steps.
“Candidly, we were concerned that the funding may just not come through at all, so we essentially have paused our planning efforts,” Bailey said.
Vermont is fortunate in that its application for the other IRA rebate program, known as Home Efficiency Rebates and often referred to as HOMES, was finalized before Biden left office. HOMES offers rebates for upgrades based on the amount of energy the upgrades saved, rather than for specific purchases, and Vermont plans to funnel its $29 million HOMES funding into an existing weatherization program. The state has been able to get administrative expenses reimbursed, but it hasn’t technically launched the program yet, as it’s still waiting on the DOE to approve the modeling software the state plans to use to estimate energy savings.
“DOE is very actively engaging with us on the HOMES application as we move forward,” she said. But on HEAR, which is further back in the approval process, the administration has been much more cagey. “Anytime we bring up HEAR, verbally on calls and email, it’s just this kind of standard language that is, thank you for your patience, we’ll let you know when we’re ready to talk about it.”
By combing through public data and reaching out to state energy offices, I found that just five states plus the District of Columbia have been able to launch both rebate programs. Seven additional states have launched HEAR, but their HOMES applications are in various stages of approvals. But 36 states, plus five U.S. territories, have not launched either program, almost three years after the passage of the IRA.
The Department of Energy did not respond to my questions about the rebate programs. But the agency has been reviewing all Biden-era funding decisions. On June 10, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that his review was ongoing, but didn’t give a clear indication of how long it would take. “We got a process in place, we have a team in place, we’re getting through maybe a dozen or more projects a week, maybe more than a dozen projects a week,” he said. “And so by the end of this summer or middle of this summer we’re going to have clarity on most of the big projects.”
Since neither the reconciliation bill nor Trump’s budget nor his requested rescissions have threatened the rebate programs, there’s no reason to suspect that the DOE will try to claw back the obligated funds. But the funding review and soft pause on applications has created lingering uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress are working to strip away other funding for energy efficiency. Both the House and Senate have proposed repealing the federal energy efficiency home improvement tax credit — which has existed in some form since 2005 — as part of Trump’s One, Big Beautiful Bill.
The program helps homeowners reduce their energy use, save money, and make their buildings more comfortable. It also eases strain on the grid. The latest iteration offered 30% off the cost of Energy Star-rated windows and doors, insulation, air sealing, heat pumps, and new electrical panels, up to $3,200 per year.
If Trump signs off on terminating this tax credit and the tax credit for rooftop solar, which also seems doomed, the IRA’s rebate programs will be some of the only subsidies left in many states to help Americans afford home improvements that have high up-front costs but long-term financial benefits.
But the termination of the tax credits could also have a negative impact on the rebate programs. That’s what Brian Kealoha, the Chief Growth and Impact Officer at VEIC, a nonprofit that’s working with seven states and the District of Columbia on their IRA rebate programs, is worried about. “The return on investment is just not going to be attractive enough” for heat pumps, he told me. “Unless you’re passionate about decarbonization … how much participation are you going to get without making the return look good?”
Some of the states that have already launched their IRA rebates were able to move quickly because they had pre-existing energy efficiency programs that they could funnel the funding into, rather than having to develop entirely new initiatives. New York, for example, which launched the first HEAR program in the country, put about $40 million of its $158 million award into its Empower+ program, which already provided incentives to low- and moderate-income New Yorkers for upgrades like insulation and heat pumps. Since then, the program has “supported nearly 5,700 projects, yielding $1.82 million in total energy bill savings,” a NYSERDA spokesperson told me.
The state later launched a second program in November offering rebates for heat pump clothes dryers. That has approved 1,100 applicants so far, 350 of whom have redeemed the rebate.
California, similarly, has launched its appliance rebate program in phases, with only the first phase of funding for heat pumps operating so far. The program is already fully subscribed for single family homes, having approved more than 4,000 applications totaling more than $32 million, but is still accepting applications for multifamily buildings. The California Energy Commission told me the second phase is still under development, and that staff are also working on implementation plans for the HOMES program, which they will submit to DOE later this summer.
Other states have taken the opposite approach, choosing to target projects that were not already served by existing programs. Maine already had a successful rebate for homeowners who switch from fossil fuel heating to heat pumps, for example, so it created two new programs using HEAR funding to get heat pumps to other markets — new multifamily buildings that serve low-income households and manufactured homes, often called mobile homes. To date, it has received 12 multifamily applications and approved five, providing up to $2.5 million to install heat pumps in more than 300 low-income units. It’s also awarded an average of $10,500 to 19 manufactured homeowners to switch their propane or kerosene heating systems to heat pumps.
Afton Vigue, the communications manager for the Governor’s Energy Office, told me in an email that Maine’s application for the HOMES program has been “conditionally awarded” and it is “awaiting guidance from the U.S. Department of Energy” but doesn’t know when that will come.
But it seems that everywhere these programs are operating, they have seen high demand.
Georgia was one of the first states to launch both HEAR and HOMES rebates. As of June 12, the state had paid out 178 HEAR rebate applications totaling $1.6 million, and had 72 more in the pipeline, Shane Hix, the director of public affairs at the Georgia Environmental Finance Authority, told me. Its HOMES program had awarded 93 households totaling $922,500, with 89 applications pending.
North Carolina is also operating both programs, but is rolling them out one county at a time, starting in “high energy burden, disadvantaged communities,” Sascha Medina, the Public Information Officer at the State Energy Office told me. Between the launch in January and June 13, the state had received more than 4,100 applications, she said.
The good news for those living in places that are stuck in limbo is that the funding for the rebate programs was authorized through 2031. As long as Chris Wright doesn’t decide the rebates are a waste of taxpayer dollars, and he ultimately resumes approvals for the programs, you’ll still have a number of years to take advantage.
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Whichever way you cut it, this has been an absolute banner year for nuclear deals in the U.S. It doesn’t much matter the metric — the amount of venture funding flowing to nuclear startups, the number of announcements regarding planned reactor restarts and upgrades, gigawatts of new construction added to the pipeline — it’s basically all peaking. Stock prices are up across all major publicly traded nuclear companies this year, in some cases by over 100%.
“This year is by far the biggest year in terms of nuclear deals that has occurred, probably, since the 70s,” Adam Stein, the director of nuclear innovation at The Breakthrough Institute, told me. “It’s spanning the gamut from bringing a 40-year-old reactor back to things that have not even been proven scientifically yet.”
To name just a few announcements from this year: planning for a 4.4-gigawatt nuclear power complex is now underway in Texas; South Carolina’s state-owned utility is seeking buyers to restart construction on two partially built AP1000 reactors; New York governor Kathy Hochul is looking to build a new reactor in upstate New York; The Tennessee Valley Authority submitted a construction permit for a small modular reactor; Google signed a power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems; and another fusion company, Helion Energy, raised a whopping $425 million round of venture capital. On top of all that there’s the Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan, which is targeted to restart by year’s end, bringing 800 megawatts of new nuclear power online.
Heading into the second Trump term, there were plenty of indications that the administration would support this technology with increasingly bipartisan appeal. So it wasn’t exactly a surprise that while the One Big Beautiful Bill eviscerated tax credits for solar and wind, it preserved them for both existing and new nuclear facilities. Now that this support is assured, Stein expects the nuclear announcements to keep rolling in. “We might have seen more deals earlier this year if there wasn’t uncertainty about what was going to happen with tax credits. But now that that’s resolved, I expect to hear more later this year,” he told me.
How much of this is, I asked him, is due to data centers and their seemingly insatiable demand for clean, firm power? “Most of it,” he said simply. By way of example, he pointed out how data center load growth has changed the outlooks for two small modular reactor companies in particular. “NuScale has been trying to find their first project for a long time now, after they had to cancel their [Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems] project. Kairos didn’t have a clear buyer for its first-of-a-kind, even though it was building two test reactors,” Stein explained. “Then all of a sudden, they all had additional deals in the works because of data center demand.”
Last year, Kairos inked a 500-megawatt deal with Google to meet the hyperscaler’s growing data center needs, while this year, Texas A&M selected the company — along with three others — to build a reactor at the university’s research and development campus. And while NuScale infamously canceled its first project in 2023 due to rising costs, this year it received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a new and improved reactor design. Now the company’s CEO, John Hopkins, told Reuters that NuScale is in talks to deploy its tech with five unnamed “tier one hyperscalers.” Its stock is up more than 150% on the year.
That’s a big turnaround for a company that, less than two years ago, was widely considered a cautionary tale — and it’s not the only one in the industry with this type of comeback story. Right before NuScale’s project failed, another nuclear company, X-energy, announced that it would no longer go public due to “challenging market conditions” and “peer company trading performance.” But while X-energy still has yet to IPO, it appears to be doing just fine. In February, the company announced the close of a $700 million Series C follow-on round, coming on the heels of Amazon’s strategic investment last year.
“I think every company has their stories about how things are changing,” Seth Grae, CEO of the advanced nuclear fuel company Lightbridge, told me. Things have moved a lot faster, Grae said, since Trump released a series of executive orders aimed at accelerating nuclear energy deployment. “Just since May, we’ve received this highly enriched uranium [from the Department of Energy], made these fuel samples, got them qualified already at Idaho National Lab. We expect they’ll be in the reactor this year. Grae told me. “Things didn’t used to happen that fast in nuclear.”
Trump’s plans to fast track nuclear development have also raised serious concerns, however, as critics worry that acceleration could lead to laxer safety standards The executive orders call for, among other things, cutting staff at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, just as the industry enters a period of intense activity. In June, the President fired one of the agency’s commissioners, Christopher Hanson, without cause. Another commissioner, Annie Caputo, resigned in July.
But right now, the nuclear industry is mostly basking in optimism. Grae credits the government’s strong support for the surge in nuclear stocks — Lightbridge’s own stock price has jumped 180% this year, while another nuclear fuel company, Centrus Energy, is up even more. The small modular reactor company Oklo is up 285% for the year, on the heels of last year’s 12-gigawatt non-binding deal with the data center company Switch — one of the largest corporate clean power agreements to date.
Last year’s slew of deals involving Oklo, X-energy, and Kairos show that the sector’s momentum had been building well before Trump took office. By 2023, the writing was already on the wall in terms of data center load growth, as grid planners began to predict a sharp rise in electricity demand after over a decade of stagnation. But when I asked Erik Funkhauser of the Good Energy Collective whether the prior two years compared with this one, he concurred with Stein. “Nope,” he told me. “We’re seeing capital infusion at a really, really high pace, as high of a pace as the company’s suppliers can keep up with on projects.”
Still, the party may not go on forever. “I see a potential for a Valley of Death,” Stein told me, similar to what many startups go through when they’re trying to raise later-stage funding rounds.
“If things don’t start to actually move forward with real progress, either getting licenses or building prototypes on time, then all of that investment will be pulled back.” That’s what the U.S. saw during the last so-called “nuclear renaissance” in the late 2000s, he explained, when a rash of large reactors were proposed with only two actually reaching completion.
These were the notorious Vogtle reactors 3 and 4 in Georgia, which finally came online in 2023 and 2024 respectively, running billions over budget and years behind schedule. In order for this latest round of nuclear enthusiasm to avoid the same fate, Stein told me it’s critical that leading projects demonstrate enough early success to maintain developer confidence in the economic and technical viability of new — and old — nuclear technologies.
That being said, the sector will inevitably contract. “Back when we saw this last scale-up, there were three designs that were really competing for attention, and now there are 75. So we’re going to see a lot of failures,” Stein said. The question for venture investors, he told me, is “how many failures of startups that you didn’t invest in are you willing to tolerate before you start to think the whole segment has trouble?”
The second main way this could all fall to pieces, he told me, is if “somebody tries to move too fast,” and that recklessness leads to “either a bankruptcy or an accident or something like that that will send ripples or shock waves through the whole sector.”
Indeed, a metaphorical or literal meltdown in the sector could put a quick halt to this year’s frenzied momentum. But within the next few years, as these announced projects begin to line up their licenses and come online — or fall apart— we’ll soon see whether this latest nuclear revival is a true turning point or just another bubble.
On the Senate’s climate whip, green cement deals, and a U.S. uranium revival.
Current conditions: Flash flooding strikes the Southeastern U.S. • Monsoon rains unleash landslides in southern China • A heat dome is bringing temperatures of up to 107 degrees Fahrenheit to France, Italy, and the Balkans.
An August 5 chart showing last month's record electricity demand peaks.EIA
The United States’ demand for electricity broke records twice last month. Air conditioners cranking on hot days, combined with surging demand from data centers, pushed the peak in the Lower 48 states to a high of 758,053 megawatts on July 28, between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Hourly Electric Grid Monitor shows. The following day, peak demand set another record, hitting 759,180 megawatts. That’s nearly 2% above the previous record set on July 15, 2024.
The EIA predicted demand to grow by more than 2% per year between 2025 and 2026. Forecasts are even higher in areas with large data centers and factories underway, such as Texas and northern Virginia. The milestone comes as the Trump administration cracks down on solar and wind energy, two of the fastest-growing and quicker-to-build sources of new generation. On Tuesday, The New York Times reported that the Environmental Protection Agency is moving to eliminate $7 billion in spending on grants for solar energy, though when Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo asked the agency, it said only that, “With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, EPA is working to ensure Congressional intent is fully implemented in accordance with the law.”
Senator Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii, locked down enough votes on Tuesday to replace Illinois Senator Dick Durbin as the Democrats’ whip in the chamber. Durbin, who is retiring next year, has served in the Senate Democrats’ No. 2 position since 2005. In his endorsement on Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York called Schatz “a close friend and one of my most valued allies.”
Schatz crusaded for the Inflation Reduction Act and told Heatmap he supported last year’s failed bipartisan permitting reform deal, even as progressive greens campaigned against its giveaways to fossil fuels. In a Shift Key podcast interview with my colleague Robinson Meyer and his co-host, Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins, in February, Schatz pitched a big tent for climate action. “We all have to hang together. It’s the American Clean Power Association. It’s the energy company that does both clean and fossil energy. It’s the transmission and distribution companies. It’s the manufacturers. It’s labor. It’s Wall Street. It’s K Street. Everyone has to hang together and say, not only is this good for business, but there’s something that is foundationally worse for business than any individual policy decision.”
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The Trump administration may be clawing back funding for cleaning up heavy industry, but Big Tech is still inking deals. On Monday, Amazon agreed to buy low-carbon cement from the startup Brimstone. Then on Tuesday, the data center developer STACK Infrastructure announced the completion of “a pilot pour” of green cement from rival startup Sublime. The moves highlight the growing demand for cleaner industrial materials amid increased scrutiny of the energy and pollution linked to server farms.
America’s uranium enrichment went out of business in the early 2000s after the Clinton-era megatons-to-megawatts program essentially ceded the industry to cheap Russian imports made from disassembled atomic weapons. Since banning imports from Russia last year, the U.S. has been ramping up funding for nuclear fuel again, especially as the industry looks to build new types of reactors that rely on fuel other than the low-enriched uranium that virtually all the country’s operating 94 commercial reactors use. On Monday, the Department of Energy announced its first pilot project for advanced nuclear fuels, giving the startup Standard Nuclear the first federal deal. On Tuesday, the agency signed a $1.5 billion deal to restore the so-called Atomic City on the 100-acre parcel of federal land at the former Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plan in Kentucky.
The Trump administration gave permission to the National Weather Service to hire up to 450 meteorologists, hydrologists, and radar technicians after sweeping cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency, CNN’s Andrew Freedman reported. The agency, which was partly blamed for its warnings going unheeded ahead of the deadly Texas floods last month, also received an exemption from the federal hiring freeze.
The move came the same day as a federal judge blocked the administration from diverting billions of dollars in Federal Emergency Management Agency funding for disaster resilience and flood mitigation. The injunction warned FEMA against spending the money on anything else.
Beyond Meat is finally getting beyond meat. The company plans to shed the flesh reference in its name this week as it launches its new Beyond Ground product that promises more protein than ground beef. “With this launch,” Fast Company’s Clint Rainey reported, “Beyond Meat is becoming merely Beyond and turning its focus away from only mimicking animal proteins to letting plant-based proteins speak for themselves. The radical move is cultural, agricultural, and financial.”
Rob and Jesse talk through the proposed overturning of the EPA’s “endangerment finding” on greenhouse gases with Harvard Law School’s Jody Freeman.
The Trump administration has formally declared that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are not dangerous pollutants. If the president gets his way, then the Environmental Protection Agency may soon surrender any ability to regulate heat-trapping pollution from cars and trucks, power plants, and factories — in ways that a future Democratic president potentially could not reverse.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, we discuss whether Trump’s EPA gambit will work, the arguments that the administration is using, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. climate and energy policy. We’re joined by Jody Freeman, the Archibald Cox Professor of Law at Harvard and the director of Harvard’s environmental and energy law program. She was an architect of the Obama administration’s landmark deal with automakers to accept carbon dioxide regulations.
Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I just want to make a related question, which is, you can actually say some of the sentences in the DOE report — you can believe tornadoes don’t show any influence from climate change and still believe heatwaves do, and still believe extreme rainfall events do. In fact, you could believe the cost of heat waves getting worse could justify the entire regulatory edifice.
Jody Freeman: What I love about you, Rob, right now, is you’re kind of incensed about little points that might individually sort of be right, maybe each one separately, but none of it adds up to even a chink in the armor. Right? And what’ll have to happen is the scientific community writ large, en masse, is going to have to come back and say, even if one or two or three of these sentences could possibly, plausibly be actually accurate, it does nothing to change the overwhelming —
Jesse Jenkins: It doesn’t matter.
Freeman: Right. What I think is happening is we’re all getting poked and distracted and tweaked into outrage over science, when in fact, the first argument they’re making is the one where they could actually attract some judges and justices to say, Oh wait, maybe you have a little more discretion here to set a threshold level. You know, Maybe it matters that you’re saying nothing we do here in the U.S. will make a difference in the end to global warming, and maybe that is a reason you don’t want to regulate. Hmm, maybe we’ll accept that reason. And that’s what we need, I think, to be more concerned about.
Jenkins: You’re saying, don’t get distracted by the fight over the climate science. That fight is very clear. It’s this legal argument that this isn’t an air pollutant because it’s not a local air pollutant, it mixes globally with all the other CO2, and we can’t, you know, each class of cars is a tiny contributor to that, and so we shouldn’t worry about it —
Freeman: And much of this is a replay, or a rehash of arguments that the George W. Bush administration lost in Massachusetts vs. EPA. So a lot of this is like, let’s take another run at the Supreme Court.
Mentioned:
The EPA Says Carbon Pollution Isn’t Dangerous. What Comes Next?
The EPA on its reconsideration of the endangerment finding
Jody’s story on the change: Trump’s EPA proposes to end the U.S. fight against climate change
Jesse’s upshift (and accompanying video); Rob’s sort of upshift.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.