Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Podcast

How to Crash America’s Manufacturing Renaissance

Rob quizzes Jesse on the latest research from the REPEAT Project.

Electric cars.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Republicans in Washington are pushing for at least two big changes to the country’s car-related policies. In Congress, some lawmakers want to repeal the $7,500 tax credit that helps consumers buy or lease a new electric vehicle — as well as a matching tax credit that lets companies buy heavy-duty zero-carbon trucks. And at the Environmental Protection Agency, officials are trying to roll back Biden-era rules encouraging dealerships to sell more EVs through 2032.

What will that mean for the climate — and for the slate of new EV and battery factories popping up around the country? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk about new research from Jesse’s lab, the REPEAT Project, about what will happen if Congress and the Trump administration get their way. What will happen to America’s factory boom? How soon would the effects be felt? And would tariffs stem the bleeding at all? Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Jesse Jenkins: What surprised me, I think, is that even some of the existing capacity that is already operating now, or in the case of battery cells, this huge amount of additional capacity that’s going to be coming online this year, in 2025, could also be unnecessary. And so we found just if you take the cells, for example, that even if the U.S. were to maintain the same market share as it has today — which is about 70%, which is higher than the typical share of content in the auto sector as a whole …

Robinson Meyer: The EV supply chain is more U.S.-based than the general internal combustion vehicle supply chain. Like, a greater share of EVs are produced in the U.S. than a share of overall vehicles.
Jenkins: Yeah, I think it’s about a 70% share for EVs and only about a 50% share for —

Meyer: How much of that is Tesla, right?

Jenkins: Well, yeah, half of the 70% is Tesla. So even if we just maintain that same 70% share and just see the effect of the contraction in the market, we would have more capacity for battery cell assembly online by the end of this year than we would need.

Meyer: Yeah, wow.

Jenkins: And that’s assuming no decline in U.S. share if we lose the 30D requirements to source these batteries from North America. And so, if you assume instead that we only produce the same amount as we currently do, so we don’t see any new investment …

Meyer: That there’s no offshoring.

Jenkins: Then we don’t even need the factories that are opening this year. We have enough capacity already online, 130 gigawatt hours a year. We would only need about 120 in that low-end scenario. So even existing plants could be at risk. And the same is true for the assembly of vehicles. Up to half of the currently operating vehicle assembly capacity for EVs and plug-in hybrids in the U.S. could also be at risk. Those plants would either be idled or even potentially closed in that market contraction scenario, where both effects hit the EV assembly, the decline of 40% in sales and a contraction in U.S. market share.

Meyer: So in other words, the quickest way to close U.S. car factories is to repeal the tax credits in the IRA and the EPA regulations on greenhouse gas pollution.

Jenkins: I hesitate to say the quickest, I’m sure there are other terrible things. But yes.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe to access Heatmap’s expert analysis of energy, climate change, and sustainability, including coverage of our regular survey research. Save $57 on an annual subscription, just $156 $99/year.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Spotlight

Data Center Moratoria Are ‘Unconstitutional,’ Lawsuits Claim

A new front opens in the data center wars.

An anti-data-center sign.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

A series of lawsuits filed in federal court asks a big question – are data center moratoria constitutional?

In early August, data center developer DC Blox sued the city of Nashville in federal court to overturn a zoning moratorium stopping them from building a hyperscale facility adjacent to the city zoo. “The Data Center Moratorium, moreover, is a targeted attack against DC BLOX, in violation of federal constitutional protections,” the suit argued, claiming that it defied the corporation’s due process and equal protection rights.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Hotspots

Local Permitting Fights Take Over National Politics

And more on this week’s conflicts around project development.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania – We reached a new normal in the data center backlash, and it all seems to have started in King of Prussia.

  • On Tuesday, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro announced his state – one once coveted by the AI industry for hyperscale construction – will no longer permit projects without local support. It was a step change from posture taken mere months earlier, when he announced voluntary standards for data center development that I found may have been vetted by representatives of the industry, including Amazon.
  • Tucked in Shapiro’s speech was what I can only imagine was his last straw: developer Brian O’Neill’s efforts to construct data center buildings in the King of Prussia community, close to where he grew up himself. Without calling him out by name, the governor said he was “stoking fear in the community, even though he has no realistic path to getting power at the sites any time soon.”
  • “Here’s something else he has no realistic path to getting: my support,” the governor said.
  • As the climate news outlet DeSmog wrote earlier this month, O’Neill had closely collaborated with members of Shapiro’s administration for more than a year before this speech happened, including on securing energy. But the real estate magnate’s projects kept facing local rejections; people really don’t seem to want what he’s been selling.
  • Now Shapiro is turning on O’Neill, transforming him into what he described as a type of “speculative” developer his government wishes to discourage from building projects in his state.

2. Columbia County, Wisconsin – The gubernatorial race in this state is transforming local fights over wind projects into must-watch popcorn fodder for anyone obsessed with the state of the energy transition, or national politics for that matter.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Q&A

A CNN Reporter Joins the Fray

A conversation with Ella Nilsen — formerly of CNN, now with Echo Communications — about where we stand in the fight over the energy transition.

The Q&A subject.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Ella Nilsen, who recently left CNN as a climate reporter and is now a new vice president at energy and cleantech PR firm Echo Communications. Having worked on Capitol Hill alongside Nilsen, I knew her to be an exceptional reporter who asked hard questions of those in power on all sides. So when I found out she was taking her journalism hat off and putting the comms cap on, I wanted to do something you rarely get to do with one of your reporting peers: ask for her own opinion about where we stand in the fight over the energy transition.

Our chat was lightly edited for clarity.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow