Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Podcast

How to Crash America’s Manufacturing Renaissance

Rob quizzes Jesse on the latest research from the REPEAT Project.

Electric cars.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Republicans in Washington are pushing for at least two big changes to the country’s car-related policies. In Congress, some lawmakers want to repeal the $7,500 tax credit that helps consumers buy or lease a new electric vehicle — as well as a matching tax credit that lets companies buy heavy-duty zero-carbon trucks. And at the Environmental Protection Agency, officials are trying to roll back Biden-era rules encouraging dealerships to sell more EVs through 2032.

What will that mean for the climate — and for the slate of new EV and battery factories popping up around the country? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk about new research from Jesse’s lab, the REPEAT Project, about what will happen if Congress and the Trump administration get their way. What will happen to America’s factory boom? How soon would the effects be felt? And would tariffs stem the bleeding at all? Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.

Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.

Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Jesse Jenkins: What surprised me, I think, is that even some of the existing capacity that is already operating now, or in the case of battery cells, this huge amount of additional capacity that’s going to be coming online this year, in 2025, could also be unnecessary. And so we found just if you take the cells, for example, that even if the U.S. were to maintain the same market share as it has today — which is about 70%, which is higher than the typical share of content in the auto sector as a whole …

Robinson Meyer: The EV supply chain is more U.S.-based than the general internal combustion vehicle supply chain. Like, a greater share of EVs are produced in the U.S. than a share of overall vehicles.
Jenkins: Yeah, I think it’s about a 70% share for EVs and only about a 50% share for —

Meyer: How much of that is Tesla, right?

Jenkins: Well, yeah, half of the 70% is Tesla. So even if we just maintain that same 70% share and just see the effect of the contraction in the market, we would have more capacity for battery cell assembly online by the end of this year than we would need.

Meyer: Yeah, wow.

Jenkins: And that’s assuming no decline in U.S. share if we lose the 30D requirements to source these batteries from North America. And so, if you assume instead that we only produce the same amount as we currently do, so we don’t see any new investment …

Meyer: That there’s no offshoring.

Jenkins: Then we don’t even need the factories that are opening this year. We have enough capacity already online, 130 gigawatt hours a year. We would only need about 120 in that low-end scenario. So even existing plants could be at risk. And the same is true for the assembly of vehicles. Up to half of the currently operating vehicle assembly capacity for EVs and plug-in hybrids in the U.S. could also be at risk. Those plants would either be idled or even potentially closed in that market contraction scenario, where both effects hit the EV assembly, the decline of 40% in sales and a contraction in U.S. market share.

Meyer: So in other words, the quickest way to close U.S. car factories is to repeal the tax credits in the IRA and the EPA regulations on greenhouse gas pollution.

Jenkins: I hesitate to say the quickest, I’m sure there are other terrible things. But yes.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe to access Heatmap’s expert analysis of energy, climate change, and sustainability, including coverage of our regular survey research. Save $57 on an annual subscription, just $156 $99/year.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Daily Briefing

A Fantastic New Way to Browse U.S Electricity and Energy Data

The federal government collects gobsmacking amounts of energy information. A new website makes it easy to access and use.

A man looking at a chart
Illustration by Justin Renteria/Getty Images

This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.

Oil prices are surging. The global crude benchmark Brent traded at more than $108 a barrel on news that Saudi Arabia has canceled some oil shipments to Europe.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Electric Vehicles

It’s Electric to Install 700 Curbside EV Chargers in New York City

The startup and the city announced the contract on Tuesday.

EV charging
Illustration by Justin Renteria/Getty Images

The City of New York announced on Tuesday that it will partner with curbside charging startup it’s electric to expand the city’s PlugNYC electric vehicle charging network from 88 curbside charge points today to around 700 by 2030.

“To put in perspective how important this is,” Tiya Gordon, it’s electric’s co-founder and COO, told me. “London and New York City have similar populations. But London has around 27,000 curbside EV chargers while New York City has just 88 so this is a major opportunity for expansion.”

Keep reading...Show less
AM Briefing

Grain Trains Pained by Diesel Strain

On a Russia-Ukraine truce, Dems’ climate shift, and Ambler Road

A grain train.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Temperatures in Laredo, Texas, are soaring past 103 degrees Fahrenheit amid a heat wave scorching the Southern and Central United States • Tropical Storm Norbert is weakening in the Pacific right as another depression is strengthening into Tropical Storm Odalys • South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal is facing severe thunderstorms with winds of up to 50 miles per hour.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Russia and Ukraine agree to an energy truce as oil hits $109

President Donald Trump declared a truce Monday morning between Russia and Ukraine over energy infrastructure, claiming that both countries had agreed to stop attacking refineries, pipelines, and power plants going forward despite those facilities representing frequent targets since the war began in 2022. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. leader said record-high diesel prices were “mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine war, not Iran,” suggesting prices would come down now that “Ukraine has agreed to not hit Russian energy targets” and “Russia has agreed to do likewise.” Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed the pact, according to Reuters.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow