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Every year after the snow melts and before the spring rains rejuvenate the landscape, Alberta burns.
It’s a natural cycle; May is “classic wildfire season in Canada” thanks to the dead winter grasses that, once uncovered, turn the landscape into a tinderbox. This year, though, there have already been 395 wildfires recorded in Alberta — over 100 are active, with 36 classified as out of control as of Saturday. Those blazes represent “significantly more wildfire activity, for this time of year, than we’ve certainly seen anytime in the recent past,” according to Christie Tucker, a spokeswoman for the province’s fire agency. She added, “People have called this season certainly unprecedented in recent memory because we have so many fires so spread out.”
So far, nearly 30,000 people have been evacuated from north and central Alberta, while local oil and gas producers have temporarily shut down about 2% of the nation’s production, which is concentrated in the area, as a precaution. According to Courtney Theriault, a reporter for CityNews Edmonton, 2023 is already on the verge of becoming one of the province’s biggest fire years on record. Separately, Tucker confirmed that as of Saturday, some 350,000 hectares (864,870 acres) have burned in total in Alberta since Jan. 1, when usually at this time of year, that number is closer to 800 (1,980 acres).
The “unprecedented crisis” in Alberta is owed in part to a heat wave that broke 34 temperature records in the province last week. Combined with the region’s ongoing drought — the severity of which has been attributed to climate change — the Canadian fires are the latest example of 2023 heat exacerbating an already robust wildfire season.
Earlier this spring in Spain, a period of prolonged drought combined with spiking temperatures similarly resulted in unseasonably devastating fires. While a number of those blazes, which began in March, were attributed to arsonists, the fires have burned more aggressively and expansively than they otherwise would have due to how dry everything has been.
“I was expecting a fire like the ones we normally see in March, which can consume 100, 200 hectares, not the more than 4,300 hectares (11,600 acres) that this one has burned,” one firefighter told The Associated Press. “We are dealing with weather conditions appropriate for the summer and have a fire that is behaving like a summertime fire.” As a Spanish fire ecologist added to the publication, “We are in climatic conditions that favor big fires.”
Fires are also burning in northern Laos, started by slash-and-burn farming but “fanned by drier-than-usual weather in Luang Prabang, Xayabury, and Oudomxay provinces,” Radio Free Asia reports. Over the weekend, Luang Prabang hit 110.3 degrees, beating the previous all-time record of 108.9 degrees set just last month. As The Washington Post explains, “It’s a rather typical heat wave [for the region], characteristic of this time of year, but pushed into record territory when added to the background of a warming world.”
Due to poor firefighting infrastructure in Laos, though, the manmade fires are difficult to contain, spreading rapidly and creating high levels of smog in the process. In late March and early April, the Air Quality Index in Luang Prabang was often over 500, driving away tourists — a major source of business for the region.
Recent heat in California has also raised concerns about fires, although the unusually wet winter in the state has offered at least some reprieve. By late April 2022, for example, there’d already been more than a dozen major wildfires in California, the Los Angeles Times reports, while at the same point this year, there was only one, the Nob fire in the San Bernardino National Forest. But any future heat this spring could begin to melt the snow as well as dry out the state’s super bloom, turning the vegetation into kindling.
In the southern hemisphere, where it is currently fall, Chile’s longest drought in at least 1,000 years combined with a record-breaking heat wave and high winds resulted in a summer conflagration that killed at least two dozen people and left hundreds more homeless. The country’s interior minister blamed the tragedy directly on warming global conditions, pointing out that “Chile is one of the countries with the highest vulnerability to climate change,” Al Jazeera reports.
Though it is tricky to tie any one fire to being “caused” by climate change, what is certain is that periods of heat and drought are becoming more extreme due to greenhouse gases, and the resulting weather patterns create conditions conducive to bigger, more severe, faster, and more destructive fires. And more heat is likely on the way; forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization said recently that they expect an El Niño to develop by the end of summer, meaning “a new spike in global heating and increase [in] the chance of breaking temperature records.”
Our hot, fiery spring might only be a sign of things to come.
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The spinoff of Lawrence Livermore National Lab has a new 10-point plan to get onto the grid by the 2030s.
One of fusion energy’s newest startups, Inertia Enterprises, is betting that the fastest route to commercial fusion runs through one of the field’s oldest ideas. The company, which raised a $450 million Series A earlier this year, plans to build a power plant based on the laser-driven fusion system pioneered at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s — the only tech yet to have produced more energy from a fusion reaction than it took to initiate it. Now, Inertia has shared its commercialization roadmap exclusively with Heatmap, detailing the 10 near-term capabilities it must demonstrate before this landmark experiment can become a grid-scale power plant by the mid-2030s.
The roadmap offers a route from the national lab’s impressive but commercially impractical fusion demonstrations to an economical power plant capable of producing electricity for the grid. At its core are a set of milestones — mostly aimed at developing cheap, mass-manufacturable components — that Inertia says it must clear before those individual systems can be integrated into a working plant. This road is not necessarily linear, however, as various teams will likely be working on many of these goals simultaneously.
At least the physics of Inertia’s approach are already proven, the startup’s CEO Jeff Lawson told me, pointing to the fusion experiments at Lawrence Livermore’s National Ignition Facility as a proof-of-concept. The lab’s demonstration of net energy gain caps more than six decades and $30 billion (in 2026 dollars) of U.S. fusion research. The remaining challenges, he argued, are all engineering-related, requiring “elbow grease, hard work, and smart people” rather than breakthroughs in fusion science.
"It seems to us like a startup or a commercial company of any variety should be focused on commercializing a proven scientific result, as opposed to actually trying to demonstrate the basic science to begin with," Lawson told me. Basic science, he argues, is better left to national labs and universities, where researchers can pursue "unbounded problems" that don’t align with the expectations and timelines of venture-backed startups.
Indeed, no fusion startup has yet achieved scientific breakeven, the milestone Lawrence Livermore first hit in 2022, and has since repeated numerous times. But leading players such as Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Helion Energy maintain that it’s only a matter of time before they validate the physics behind their own reactor designs, which they claim will be highly cost-competitive.
Lawson, on the other hand, readily acknowledged that Lawrence Livermore’s tech is uneconomical in its current form. His bet is simply that the more predictable path to a commercial reactor is to drive down the cost of the lab’s validated fusion approach, known as inertial confinement. This system relies on high-powered lasers firing at a millimeter-scale pellet of fusion fuel, compressing it to extreme temperatures and pressures until the atoms fuse. Today, the National Ignition Facility makes each individual fusion target by hand, a workable solution given that it only uses about a dozen per year.
That production model, however, isn’t remotely plausible for a grid-scale power plant. Because each fusion reaction lasts just a fraction of a billionth of a second, a commercial facility must fire its lasers at a fresh target about 10 times per second to generate continuous electricity — requiring the production of hundreds of millions of targets each year.
Scaling production to roughly a million pellets per day and making them inexpensive enough for commercial operation without compromising the strength or precision required for fusion ignition is central to Inertia’s roadmap. That includes goals five, seven, eight and nine — industrializing the manufacturing of the carbon shells that hold the fusion fuel, making the thin films that hold those carbon shells both durable and cheap, scaling up and automating fusion target assembly, and speeding up how fast targets are filled with the requisite deuterium-tritium fuel.
The other central focus of the roadmap is the laser system, which will ultimately consist of 1,000 individual units operating in concert to compress and heat the fusion fuel. Key priorities include reducing the system’s cost (goal two), dramatically increasing its firing cadence (goal three), and bolstering its durability to withstand high-intensity operations (goal four). Goal six also complements these efforts, calling for the development of a control system capable of tracking moving fusion targets to precisely align each laser shot.
Goals one and 10 bookend the journey with some broader milestones. The first focuses on increasing the fusion target’s energy gain — the ratio of fusion energy produced to laser energy delivered — to more than 25 times ignition. Today, the National Ignition Facility’s best-performing laser shot has yielded a gain of just over four times what it took to start the reaction. Goal 10 then zooms out to the ultimate objective: integrating all these technologies into a commercially viable power plant that can deliver either electricity or industrial heat to end customers.
To reach that point, Inertia has embarked on an industrial engineering hiring spree, recruiting folks with experience taking complex hardware systems from prototype to mass production, “not unlike the processes that are used in the semiconductor or consumer electronics world,” Lawson explained. The company has been making progress on its component development goals since the beginning of the year, he told me, and expects to announce the successful demonstration of a few of these milestones in the coming months. Lawson ultimately expects Inertia to complete the core components of its laser and target manufacturing systems by the middle of next year.
The team will spend the next two to three years integrating these individual pieces into two fully operational subsystems, a prototype laser system and a target manufacturing line. Around 2030, the company will begin combining those subsystems into a first-of-a-kind fusion power plant, which will also serve as the proving ground for the target chamber, tritium fuel breeding system, and power conversion system that turns fusion heat into electricity. By the middle of the next decade, Inertia aims to be generating power from this first plant, setting the stage for the company to build and connect additional grid-scale commercial power plants.
There are plenty of engineering trade-offs that the company will have to solve for. Take the decision around how to size the target chamber, for example. “If you make it bigger, your walls have an easier time and survive longer, but it’s more expensive. If you make it smaller, your walls have a tougher time because they’re closer to all the heat and energy that the fusion reaction is creating, but now your power plant costs less to build.”
But to Lawson, this represents exactly the type of problem Inertia was built to solve: complex engineering issues that come to the fore once scientists have demonstrated the fundamental physics are sound. He thinks other fusion companies may someday reach this stage, as well — though he’s unwilling to hazard a guess on exactly what approach or startup is best positioned to do so.
“There have been generations of scientists who’ve made their predictions about fusion energy and gotten it wrong,” he told me. “I’m not going to pretend to be smarter than them. All I’m here to say is, just knowing that one did work, we can commercialize it.”