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On extreme rainfall, tailpipe rules, and giant viruses

Current conditions: Floods washed away roads in Austria • Thousands of dead fish are littering the shores of a lagoon in drought-stricken Mexico • A heat advisory is in effect for Cupertino, California, where Apple is hosting its Worldwide Developers Conference this week.
Florida is in for some very wild weather this week as tropical downpours bring huge amounts of rain and potential flood conditions. About 12 inches of rain is forecast to fall in Southwest Florida starting tomorrow and continuing throughout the week, but AccuWeather says some areas could see an incredible 22 inches. The Sunshine State has experienced drought conditions this spring. Fort Myers, for example, has seen just 15 inches of rainfall since the start of the year. So some precipitation is welcome, but the amount expected this week can quickly trigger floods.
In case you missed it: The Department of Transportation finalized new tailpipe emissions rules for passenger vehicles on Friday, part of its push to encourage car manufacturers toward making more electric and hybrid vehicles. The new fuel economy standards will mean that, by 2031, light-duty vehicles must average about 50 mpg. That’s up from the current average of about 39 mpg, but less ambitious than the Biden administration’s initial proposal. The final standards for lighter SUVs, pickups, and minivans, as well as heavy-duty pickups and vans, were also watered down. According to Politico, the standards in the original proposal would have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 200 million metric tons through 2050 compared to the standards announced on Friday.
As we approach the summer equinox in the northern hemisphere, it’s a good time to pause and reflect on the extreme heat events that have already plagued so many people across the world this year. In the first five months of 2024, more than 1.5 billion people experienced at least one day where the heat index reached the life-threatening temperature of 103 degrees Fahrenheit, according to analysis from The Washington Post. That’s nearly one-fifth of the entire human population on Earth. Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera estimates that about 100 countries or territories have broken heat records so far in June. Right now a heat wave is baking some states in the southwest, Northern China is bracing for temperatures over 104 degrees Fahrenheit, and India is enduring its longest heat wave ever.
Early results from the European parliament elections that took place over the last few days show right-wing parties making gains and green parties sitting among the “biggest losers.” Obviously this shift could have implications for EU climate law: The bloc has a number of ambitious clean energy and emissions targets in line for 2030, but many green policies (including a planned 2035 phase-out of new gas-powered vehicles) are up for review soon and “a more climate-skeptical EU parliament could attempt to add loopholes to weaken those laws,” explained Reuters. The parliament will also help outline new 2040 emissions targets for EU countries, and “that goal will set the course for a future wave of policies to curb emissions in the 2030s in every sector, from farming, to manufacturing, to transport.” Still, the tone remains pretty optimistic. Environment and climate ministers seem to feel that while new climate measures may be hard to sell, backtracking on existing regulations is unlikely.
Scientists say they’ve discovered signs that giant viruses are living on the Greenland ice sheet, and believe these viruses might be able to help slow melting in the region. The findings are preliminary, and many unanswered questions remain, but the theory is that these viruses – which can run 1,500 times larger than regular viruses – attack a type of algae that turns the Greenland ice and snow black. The darker the ice, the more heat it absorbs, and the faster it melts. If the scientists can prove the viruses attack the algae, perhaps they could be deployed to help control the algae and keep the snow and ice white. It’s a sort of “natural” form of geoengineering, I suppose. It may seem far-fetched, but then again so does brightening the clouds and pumping saltwater onto the Arctic sea ice to re-freeze it. Desperate times, eh?
“It does feel a little apocalyptic. You remember the days when you could have olive oil.” –28-year-old Joe Shaw talks to The Wall Street Journal about how extreme weather is hiking the price of “the finer things in life.”
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On a permitting bill shocker, spiking gas bills, and China’s nuclear progress
Current conditions: Cross-country storms are forecast to cause airport delays from coast to coast ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday • A powerful storm in the Plains will dump up to 10 inches of rain on Texas and Missouri and bring potential tornadoes • Heavy rains in Southeast Asia are creating waves up to 10 feet tall in the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea.

The Trump administration announced plans Thursday to open nearly 1.3 billion acres of waters on the Americans coasts to oil and gas drilling. The Department of the Interior proposed holding as many as 34 lease sales, including six off California and in a remote region of Alaska in the northern Arctic where drilling has never taken place. The New York Times called the plan one of President Trump’s most significant steps yet to increase the production of fossil fuels, the burning of which is dangerously heating the planet.”
The move comes months after the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management rescinded the designation of just 3.5 million acres of federal waters to offshore wind development, as I reported here at the time. The administration went on to halt work on active projects and file lawsuits to try to yank back already-granted permits for offshore turbines. Even the oil industry came to wind developers’ defense, arguing that President Donald Trump was setting a dangerous precedent, as I wrote here last month.
That’s what makes a particular measure in the permitting reform bill that passed out of the House Committee on Natural Resources last night so eye catching. The bipartisan SPEED Act — which Heatmap’s Jael Holzman described as doing “stuff energy developers of all stripes say they want” including “time-clocks on when federal permits are issued and deadlines on when court challenges can be filed” — advanced out of committee on a vote of 25 to 18. Surprisingly, Republicans voted in favor of a bill that included language explicitly saying federal agencies cannot revoke, suspend, alter, or interfere with any already-approved permit of an energy project. Halting the assault on offshore wind has long been a Democratic condition for passing the legislation, though top administration officials have balked at the idea of easing off the wind industry.
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The Department of Energy unveiled a sweeping internal reorganization that included eliminating two major clean-energy offices. The agency is cutting the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, a new organizational chart the agency released Thursday morning shows. The department is “aligning its operations to restore common sense to energy policy, lower costs for American families and businesses and ensure the responsible stewardship of taxpayer dollars,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a statement.
Some of the moves seemed puzzling. When a former agency employee sent me the new org chart yesterday morning, I noticed that the Energy Department had axed its Water Power Technologies Office. The Trump administration has expressed support for hydropower. But the source told me that it will now fall under the new Office of Critical Materials and Energy Innovation, effectively lumping in the oldest type of power plant with mining and cutting-edge energy technology. The Loan Programs Office, the agency’s internal lender, got a rebrand to the Office of Energy Dominance Financing, which Heatmap's Emily Pontecorvo called last month.
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Natural gas prices are on track to climb by almost $3.90 per million British thermal units this winter as exports increase and production remains flat, according to the latest forecast from the Energy Information Administration. When, shortly after taking office, the Trump administration revoked a study that warned increasing exports of liquified natural gas risked raising prices at home, Wright dismissed his predecessors’ findings as defying the straightforward logic that increased demand would increase supply. But new production hasn’t matched soaring demand from power plants and heating. And this winter is forecast to be particularly cold. The EIA projected that prices in 2026 will average $4 per million British thermal units, roughly 16% higher than in 2025. That, the federal analysts wrote, was “primarily due to the increased liquified natural gas exports.” LNG exports this year are on track to beat last year by 25%.
China’s march toward dominance in atomic energy continues at a steady pace. The country poured the first concrete for two new nuclear power stations, NucNet reported. The start of the new projects put Beijing closer to its ambitious goal to reach 70 gigawatts of installed reactor capacity, up from 55 gigawatts at last count, by the end of this year. China is expected to fall slightly short of the target. But it’s on track to meet the goal by the early part of next year.
Beijing isn’t stopping there. The plants that just started construction are expected to come online in at most five years (an inconceivably swift schedule for a modern U.S. or European nuclear project), and the state-owned China General Nuclear plans to build as many as five more, World Nuclear News noted.
The California Public Utilities Commission approved two new programs to make in-window heat pumps and 120-volt induction stoves more affordable and available. The programs, led by the agency’s California Market Transformation Administrator, give manufacturers challenges and provide a suite of interventions to spur factories to bring down costs and ramp up production. “We want as many people as possible to have access to zero-emissions appliances to heat and cool their homes and cook their food,” Rebecca Barker, senior associate attorney at Earthjustice, said in a statement. “These initiatives will transform the market so anyone can walk into their local home improvement store and find these options readily available.”
It was approved by the House Natural Resources Committee on Thursday by a vote of 25 to 18.
A key House panel this afternoon advanced a bipartisan permitting deal that would include language appearing to bar Donald Trump or any other president from rescinding permits for energy projects.
The House Natural Resources Committee approved the SPEED Act, which would do stuff energy developers of all stripes say they want – time-clocks on when federal permits are issued and deadlines on when court challenges can be filed — by a vote of 25 to 18.
Under an amendment added by voice vote to the bill in committee, the bill now also includes language explicitly saying federal agencies cannot revoke, suspend, alter or interfere with an already-approved permit to an energy project. GOP Natural Resources chair Bruce Westerman told the audience at the bill markup that the amendment was the result of behind-the-scenes talks to try and assuage Democrats holding out over the Trump administration’s freeze on federal permitting for renewable energy and its attacks on previously permitted offshore wind projects.
During the hearing House Democrats listed out other complaints they want addressed before giving their support, including “parity” between renewable energy and fossil fuels in the permitting process as well as some extra mechanism against blocking projects in the bureaucratic pipeline. It’s easy to understand why they want more assurances given rescinding permits is only one of many ways Trump has gone after renewables projects.
But as Thomas Hochman of the Foundation for American Innovation noted at a Heatmap event in D.C. on Tuesday, the oil and gas industry is also interested in neutralizing the permitting process from any tech-specific politics that could come back to bite them. “They’re imagining a President Newsom in 2029 and they’re worried the same tools that have been uncovered to block wind and solar will then be used to block oil and gas.”
The bill would also insert a number of new stipulations into the permitting review process intended to move things along in a simpler, faster fashion. For example, an agency would only be able to consider impacts that "share a reasonably close causal relationship to, and are proximately caused by, the immediate project or action under consideration; and may not consider effects that are speculative, attenuated from the project or action, separate in time or place from the project or action, or in relation to separate existing or potential future projects or actions."
But judging by the final vote, it’s unclear if the amendment targeting the Trump administration will be enough to get a permitting deal across the finish line should this bill get ultimately voted out of the House by the full legislative chamber. Only two Democrats – outgoing centrist Jared Golden who helped author the bill and moderate swing district Californian Adam Gray – voted in support.
“The Trump administration is putting culture wars ahead of lowering energy costs for the American people. Unleashing American energy means unleashing all of it, including affordable clean energy,” said Rep. Seth Magaziner, a Democrat from Rhode Island critical of Trump’s attacks on offshore wind. Magaziner said under other circumstances he may have supported the legislation but “in order for me to vote for this bill I need strong language to ensure the Trump administration cannot continue to unfairly block clean energy projects from getting to the grid.”
Other Democrats in the hearing echoed Magaziner’s comments, and during the markup the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of influential Democrats working on climate policy in the chamber – put out a statement saying their frustrations remain and demanding the bill “affirmatively end the scorched-earth attacks on clean energy, restore permitting integrity for projects that have been unfairly targeted, and ensure fairness and neutrality going forward.”
Still, the Democrats on the Natural Resources Committee will not be able to stop the bill and it might get more support from members of the party on the House floor (the committee is usually where a lot of more progressive firebrands land). But their concerns are very much representative of what Senate Democrats might raise.
Rep. Scott Peters, a California Democrat involved in the House permitting talks, told me during a phone interview this afternoon that the language added to the bill “solves a lot of the problem on permit certainty” but that getting the deal across the finish line will require solving “the Burgum problem,” referring to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum.
Apparently, per Peters, a major Democratic sticking point is Burgum’s new layer of political review requiring him to sign off on essentially every Interior Department decision needed for permitting solar and wind projects. Any progress further will mean Republican concessions there. “Sending a camera out to survey a site... the Secretary of Interior has to sign off on that, and that’s the opposite of permitting reform.”
An ideal way to deal with the Interior Department’s stall tactic, he said, is to add compulsory deadlines for specific decisions to the bill so that political leaders can’t sit on their hands like that. Still, Peters is optimistic after the addition of the language blocking presidents from rescinding previously-issued permits.
“Today didn’t finish the job but it was a big step forward,” Peters said.
Flames have erupted in the “Blue Zone” at the United Nations Climate Conference in Brazil.
A literal fire has erupted in the middle of the United Nations conference devoted to stopping the planet from burning.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Today is the second to last day of the annual climate meeting known as COP30, taking place on the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Belém, Brazil. Delegates are in the midst of heated negotiations over a final decision text on the points of agreement this session.
A number of big questions remain up in the air, including how countries will address the fact that their national plans to cut emissions will fail to keep warming “well under 2 degrees Celsius,” the target they supported in the 2015 Paris Agreement. They are striving to reach agreement on a list of “indicators,” or metrics by which to measure progress on adaptation. Brazil has led a push for the conference to mandate the creation of a global roadmap off of fossil fuels. Some 80 countries support the idea, but it’s still highly uncertain whether or how it will make its way into the final text.
Just after 2:00 p.m. Belém time, 12 p.m. Eastern, I was in the middle of arranging an interview with a source at the conference when I got the following message:
“We've been evacuated due to a fire- not exactly sure how the day is going to continue.”
The fire is in the conference’s “Blue Zone,” an area restricted to delegates, world leaders, accredited media, and officially designated “observers” of the negotiations. This is where all of the official negotiations, side events, and meetings take place, as opposed to the “Green Zone,” which is open to the public, and houses pavilions and events for non-governmental organizations, business groups, and civil society groups.
It is not yet clear what the cause of the fire was or how it will affect the home sprint of the conference.
Outside of the venue, a light rain was falling.