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On deadly temperatures, geothermal deals, and rising sea levels
Current conditions: Typhoon Shanshan is headed toward southwestern Japan with the power of a Category 3 hurricane • Flooding in Bangladesh has killed 23 people and stranded 1.24 million families • Australia just experienced its hottest winter temperature ever recorded.
Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in place across much of the Midwest as a heat wave intensifies across large swathes of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. In Chicago, the heat index could climb to 115 degrees Fahrenheit today before temperatures begin to come down Wednesday. But the shifting weather is likely to be accompanied by intense thunderstorms across the Midwest tonight and tomorrow.
Extreme heat killed 2,325 people in America last year, the highest number in nearly 25 years, according to a new study published in the journal American Medical Association. The data shows 21,518 heat-related deaths since 1999, with the number of deaths remaining steady until 2016, when they began to rise noticeably. Last year the number surpassed 2,000 for the first time in the recorded time period. The age-adjusted rate of heat deaths per capita has also been rising. It stood at 0.17 deaths per 100,000 people in 2015, and reached 0.63 last year. “As temperatures continue to rise because of climate change, the recent increasing trend is likely to continue,” the researchers wrote. “Local authorities in high-risk areas should consider investing in the expansion of access to hydration centers and public cooling centers or other buildings with air conditioning.”
U.S. heat-related mortality rates over time.American Medical Association
Geothermal startup Sage Geosystems will supply Facebook parent Meta with 150 megawatts of geothermal power in a new deal announced yesterday. The zero-carbon electricity will be used to power Meta’s data centers, starting in 2027, according to a press release. The facility will be built somewhere “east of the Rocky Mountains.” Earlier this month Sage Geosystems became the first geothermal energy storage project to connect to the grid, storing excess clean energy to be used by Texas’ grid operator. This deal with Meta, however, marks Sage’s first move into actually generating around-the-clock, zero-emission electricity by pumping water into the hot rocks that sit beneath the Earth’s surface to create steam. Another geothermal startup, Fervo Energy, is working with Google to power the tech giant’s data centers.
Canada announced yesterday it will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs starting October 1 in an effort to prevent cheap cars from flooding the market and threatening Canadian auto manufacturing. New levies might also be applied to other clean technologies, including batteries and solar panels, after a 30-day consultation period. “Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace, compromising the security of our critical industries and displacing dedicated Canadian autos and metal workers,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Last year Canada imported $1.6 billion worth of Chinese EVs, up from just $74 million in 2022, according toBloomberg. The jump coincided with Tesla’s move to ship Model Y vehicles from Shanghai to the port of Vancouver. But as Reutersnoted, “Ottawa is trying to position Canada as a critical part of the global EV supply chain and had come under pressure from domestic industry to act against China.” Canada’s move puts it in alignment with the U.S. and the European Union, which have both taken steps to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs.
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United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned yesterday at the Pacific Island Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga that the “surging seas are coming for us all.” The comments come as two new reports – from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. – underscore the growing threat of rising seas for coastal communities and low-lying island nations. Oceans have risen by approximately 9 inches since 1880, and the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled over the past 10 years, driven by melting land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms.
The Pacific islands are uniquely exposed, the reports say, but the problem is global. Under a scenario in which temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, by 2050 New York City, Boston, New Orleans, and Atlantic City are all expected to see sea levels rise between 9 and 16 inches. “Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas threatened by our swelling ocean,” Guterres said. “Yet even though some sea level rise is inevitable, its scale, pace, and impact are not. That depends on our decisions.”
A typical customer of PG&E will see their electricity bills rise by more than $400 this year to help pay for the California utility’s wildfire risk mitigation efforts.
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Elgin Energy Center is back from the dead.
At least one natural gas plant in America’s biggest energy market that was scheduled to shut down is staying open. Elgin Energy Center, an approximately 500 megawatt plant in Illinois approximately 40 miles northwest of downtown Chicago was scheduled to shut down next June, according to filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and officials from PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest regional transmission organization, governs the relevant portion of the U.S. grid. Elgin’s parent company “no longer intends to deactivate and retire all four units ... at the Elgin Energy Center,” according to a letter dated September 4 and posted to PJM’s website Wednesday.
The Illinois plant is something of a poster child for PJM’s past few years. In 2022, it was one of many natural gas plants to shut down during Winter Storm Elliott as the natural gas distribution seized up. Its then-parent company, Lincoln Power — owned by Cogentrix, the Carlyle Group’s vehicle for its power business — filed for bankruptcy the following year, after PJM assessed almost $40 million in penalties for failing to operate during the storm. In June, a bankruptcy court approved the acquisition of the Elgin plant, along with one other, by Middle River Power, a generation business backed by Avenue Capital, a $12 billion investment firm, in a deal that was closed in December.
The decision to continue operating the plant past its planned deactivation comes as PJM set a new price record at its capacity auction in July, during which generators submitted bids for power that can be deployed when the grid is under stress due to high demand. The $14.7 billion auction was a massive jump from the previous one, which finished at just over $2 billion. Ironically, one reason the most recent auction was so expensive is that PJM gave less credit to natural gas generators for their capacity following Winter Storm Elliott, which then drove up auction prices, leading to large payouts for gas plants. PJM said the high auction prices were “caused primarily by a large number of generator retirements.”
In a bankruptcy court filing in 2023, Lincoln Power’s chief restructuring officer said that the company “was experiencing a liquidity crunch” due to low prices in past capacity auction, which meant that it had “received significantly less revenues for the capacity they sold in those Capacity Auctions as compared to previous Capacity Auctions.” With higher capacity revenues in PJM, presumably Elgin's business has improved.
Many analysts are skeptical that PJM can quickly get new load onto the system to bring prices down meaningfully in subsequent auctions — the next one is in December — and the PJM queue for new projects is absurdly clogged. This only juices the incentives for older fossil plants to stay open.
“This shortage of capacity is happening immediately,” Nicholas Freschi, senior associate at Gabel Associates, told me last week. “There might be more resources, and PJM might be able to coerce some retiring or not participating plants to make up for the shortfall. It’s an immediate problem.”
Neither Middle River nor its attorney representing the company before FERC returned requests for comment.
On the presidential debate, California’s wildfires, and the nuclear workforce
Current conditions: Hurricane Francine is approaching Louisiana as a Category 1 storm • The streets of Vietnam’s capital of Hanoi are flooded after Typhoon Yagi, and the death toll has reached 143 • Residents of Nigeria’s northern Borno state are urged to watch out for crocodiles and snakes that escaped from a zoo due to flooding.
Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris squared off on the debate stage in Philadelphia last night. Here are some important climate and energy highlights from the evening:
Three large wildfires – the Line fire, the Bridge fire, and the Airport fire – are burning in Southern California, fueled by intense heat and thick, dry vegetation. Already more than 100,000 acres have been scorched. The Line fire is closing in on the popular vacation destination Big Bear, and is threatening some 65,000 structures. Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said the scale of the emergencies is straining firefighting resources, and FEMA is sending financial aid to the state. In neighboring Nevada, the Davis Fire has grown to nearly 6,000 acres and is burning toward ski resorts in Tahoe. Temperatures in the region started to cool yesterday after a long and brutal heat wave. The weather shift could help firefighters bring the blazes under control.
The White House is launching an American Climate Corps national tour this fall to highlight the work being carried out by corps members in different communities and showcase important projects. The events will feature remarks from the administration and other officials, roundtable talks with ACC members, and swearing-in ceremonies. The tour began in Maine this week with a focus on climate resilience and urban forestry, and heads to Arizona next week. The rest of the schedule is as follows, with more dates to come:
The number of students studying to become nuclear engineers is declining as demand for carbon-free nuclear energy is on the rise, according toThe Wall Street Journal. Citing data from the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, the Journal reported that just 454 students in the U.S. graduated with a degree in the field in 2022, down 25% from a decade earlier. Meanwhile, the industry’s workforce is aging. “We need nuclear expertise in order to combat climate change,” said Sara Pozzi, professor of nuclear engineering and radiological sciences at the University of Michigan. “We are at a crucial point where we need to produce the new generation of nuclear experts so that they can work with the older generation and learn from them.” The drop in new recruits comes down to nuclear’s image problem thanks to public disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima, the Journal speculated.
Critical metal refining company Nth Cycle announced this week it has become the first company to produce nickel and cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in the U.S. following the opening of its commercial-scale facility in Ohio. The company’s “Oyster” technology uses electricity to turn recyclable industrial scrap and mined ore into MHP, a key component in clean-energy technologies like batteries. “This revolutionary innovation replaces pyrometallurgy with one of the cleanest technologies in the world, and accelerates the net zero targets of the public and private sector,” the company said in a press release. It claims the Ohio unit can produce 900 metric tons of MHP per year, which would be enough to supply batteries for 22 million cell phones. The company says its process reduces emissions by 90% compared to traditional mining methods and can help EV manufacturers meet the IRA’s sourcing requirements.
A new nationwide poll of 1,000 registered U.S. voters found that 90% of respondents support President Biden’s federal clean energy incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, including 78% of respondents who said they were Trump voters.
Maybe you’ve never heard of it. Maybe you know it too well. But to a certain type of clean energy wonk, it amounts to perhaps the three most dreaded words in climate policy: the interconnection queue.
The queue is the process by which utilities decide which wind and solar farms get to hook up to the power grid in the United States. Across much of the country, it has become so badly broken and clogged that it can take more than a decade for a given project to navigate.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob speak with two experts about how to understand — and how to fix — what is perhaps the biggest obstacle to deploying more renewables on the U.S. power grid. Tyler Norris is a doctoral student at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. He was formerly vice president of development at Cypress Creek Renewables, and he served on North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper’s Carbon Policy Working Group. Claire Wayner is a senior associate at RMI’s carbon-free electricity program, where she works on the clean and competitive grids team. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Can I interject and just ask why, over the past decade, the interconnection queue got much longer — but also over the past decade, 15 years, the U.S. grid did change in character and in fuel type a lot, right? We went from burning a lot of coal to a lot of natural gas. And that transition is often cited as one of the model transitions, one of the few energy transitions to happen globally that happened at the speed with which we would need to decarbonize. Obviously, switching coal to gas is not decarbonizing, but it is a model — it happened fast enough that it is a good model for what decarbonizing would look like in order to meet climate goals.
Evidently, that did not run into these kind of same interconnection queue problems. Why is that? Is that because we were swapping in within individual power plants? We were just changing the furnace from a coal furnace to a gas furnace? Is that because these were larger projects and so it didn’t back up in the queue in the same way that a lot of smaller solar or wind farms do?
Claire Wayner: I would say all the reasons you just gave are valid, yeah. The coal to gas transition involved, likely, a lot of similar geographic locations. With wind and solar, we’re seeing them wanting to build on the grid and in a lot of cases in new, rather remote locations that are going to require new types of grid upgrades that the coal to gas transition just doesn’t have.
Jesse Jenkins: Maybe it is — to use a metaphor here — it’s a little bit like traffic congestion. If you add a generator to the grid, it’s trying to ship its power through the grid, and that decision to add your power mix to the grid combines with everyone else that’s also generating and consuming power to drive traffic jams or congestion in different parts of the grid, just like your decision to hop in the car and drive to work or to go into the city for the weekend to see a show or whatever you’re doing. It’s not just your decision. It’s everyone’s combined decisions that affects travel times on the grid.
Now, the big difference between the grid and travel on roads or most other forms of networks we’re used to is that you don’t get to choose which path to go down. If you’re sending electricity to the grid, electricity flows with physics down the path of least resistance or impedance, which is the alternating current equivalent of resistance. And so it’s a lot more like rivers flowing downhill from gravity, right? You don’t get to choose which branch of the river you go down. It’s just, you know, gravity will take you. And so you adding your power flows to the grid creates complicated flows based on the physics of this mesh network that spans a continent and interacts with everyone else on the grid.
And so when you’re going from probably a few dozen large natural gas generators added that operate very similarly to the plants that they’re replacing to hundreds of gigawatts across thousands of projects scattered all over the grid with very complicated generation profiles because they’re weather-dependent renewables, it’s just a completely different challenge for the utilities.
So the process that the regional grid operators developed in the 2000s, when they were restructuring and taking over that role of regional grid operator, it’s just not fit for purpose at all for what we face today. And I want to highlight another thing you mentioned, which is the software piece of it, too. These processes, they are using software and corporate processes that were also developed 10 or 20 years ago. And we all know that software and computing techniques have gotten quite a bit better over a decade or two. And rarely have utilities and grid operators really kept pace with those capabilities.
Wayner: Can I just say, I’ve heard that in some regions, interconnection consists of still sending back and forth Excel files. To Tyler’s point earlier that we only just now are getting data on the interconnection queue nationwide and how it stands, that’s one challenge that developers are facing is a lack of data transparency and rapid processing from the transmission providers and the grid operators.
And so, to use an analogy that my colleague Sarah Toth uses a lot, which I really love: Imagine if we had a Domino’s pizza tracker for the interconnection queue, and that developers could just log on and see how their projects are doing in many, if not most regions. They don’t even have that visibility. They don’t know when their pizza is going to get delivered, or if it’s in the oven.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Antenna Group helps you connect with customers, policymakers, investors, and strategic partners to influence markets and accelerate adoption. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.