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On deadly temperatures, geothermal deals, and rising sea levels

Current conditions: Typhoon Shanshan is headed toward southwestern Japan with the power of a Category 3 hurricane • Flooding in Bangladesh has killed 23 people and stranded 1.24 million families • Australia just experienced its hottest winter temperature ever recorded.
Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in place across much of the Midwest as a heat wave intensifies across large swathes of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. In Chicago, the heat index could climb to 115 degrees Fahrenheit today before temperatures begin to come down Wednesday. But the shifting weather is likely to be accompanied by intense thunderstorms across the Midwest tonight and tomorrow.
Extreme heat killed 2,325 people in America last year, the highest number in nearly 25 years, according to a new study published in the journal American Medical Association. The data shows 21,518 heat-related deaths since 1999, with the number of deaths remaining steady until 2016, when they began to rise noticeably. Last year the number surpassed 2,000 for the first time in the recorded time period. The age-adjusted rate of heat deaths per capita has also been rising. It stood at 0.17 deaths per 100,000 people in 2015, and reached 0.63 last year. “As temperatures continue to rise because of climate change, the recent increasing trend is likely to continue,” the researchers wrote. “Local authorities in high-risk areas should consider investing in the expansion of access to hydration centers and public cooling centers or other buildings with air conditioning.”

Geothermal startup Sage Geosystems will supply Facebook parent Meta with 150 megawatts of geothermal power in a new deal announced yesterday. The zero-carbon electricity will be used to power Meta’s data centers, starting in 2027, according to a press release. The facility will be built somewhere “east of the Rocky Mountains.” Earlier this month Sage Geosystems became the first geothermal energy storage project to connect to the grid, storing excess clean energy to be used by Texas’ grid operator. This deal with Meta, however, marks Sage’s first move into actually generating around-the-clock, zero-emission electricity by pumping water into the hot rocks that sit beneath the Earth’s surface to create steam. Another geothermal startup, Fervo Energy, is working with Google to power the tech giant’s data centers.
Canada announced yesterday it will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs starting October 1 in an effort to prevent cheap cars from flooding the market and threatening Canadian auto manufacturing. New levies might also be applied to other clean technologies, including batteries and solar panels, after a 30-day consultation period. “Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace, compromising the security of our critical industries and displacing dedicated Canadian autos and metal workers,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Last year Canada imported $1.6 billion worth of Chinese EVs, up from just $74 million in 2022, according to Bloomberg. The jump coincided with Tesla’s move to ship Model Y vehicles from Shanghai to the port of Vancouver. But as Reuters noted, “Ottawa is trying to position Canada as a critical part of the global EV supply chain and had come under pressure from domestic industry to act against China.” Canada’s move puts it in alignment with the U.S. and the European Union, which have both taken steps to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs.
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United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned yesterday at the Pacific Island Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga that the “surging seas are coming for us all.” The comments come as two new reports – from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. – underscore the growing threat of rising seas for coastal communities and low-lying island nations. Oceans have risen by approximately 9 inches since 1880, and the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled over the past 10 years, driven by melting land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms.
The Pacific islands are uniquely exposed, the reports say, but the problem is global. Under a scenario in which temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, by 2050 New York City, Boston, New Orleans, and Atlantic City are all expected to see sea levels rise between 9 and 16 inches. “Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas threatened by our swelling ocean,” Guterres said. “Yet even though some sea level rise is inevitable, its scale, pace, and impact are not. That depends on our decisions.”
A typical customer of PG&E will see their electricity bills rise by more than $400 this year to help pay for the California utility’s wildfire risk mitigation efforts.
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The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:
First, the Energy Information Administration reported this week that U.S. emissions grew by more than 2% last year, driven by surging electricity demand and an increase in coal-fired generation. What caused that higher power demand? New factories and data centers — as well as record summertime cooling demand.
Second, many of the new factories driving that higher power demand are themselves producing goods that are … let’s say … data center-adjacent. There are the enormous new semiconductor fabs, of course. But Ford and General Motors have also set up new production lines (or repurposed old ones) to manufacture grid-scale batteries to meet power demand.
Third, take a look at the recent U.S. spending on private non-residential construction — in other words, everything American companies are building that is not houses, condos, or apartments.
The construction industry’s spent almost $60 billion on data centers over the past year, which is more than it spent on all other office buildings combined (and more than it spent building warehouses, too). Just a handful of categories — data centers, power plants, electricity infrastructure, and certain kinds of electronics manufacturing — now make up a third of all U.S. private non-residential construction investment. They’ve never made up such a large share of construction spending since data collection began in 2014.
As The New York Times recently noted, the American economy is unusually dependent on the American stock market right now — and the stock market is unusually dependent on artificial intelligence. This week, investors started to balk at the enormous spending hyperscalers are planning to keep building out the AI boom; Alphabet’s shares dropped 8% this week after it boosted its planned 2026 capital expenditure and signaled 2027 will be even bigger. If the data center boom started to slow down in earnest, then more than just that budget will change.
Speaking of which, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote earlier this week about how many businesses are struggling to even estimate their carbon emissions from artificial intelligence. The carbon accounting startup Watershed recently unveiled a new formula to help companies get a sense of their AI-related emissions.
But even that formula is still limited by the amount of data hyperscalers publish — and they don’t publish that much. Google, for instance, is the only AI company that has (laudably) provided estimates of its emissions on a per-prompt basis. Yet no company has published its per-token emissions, or how emissions sync up with particular models or regions.
So Emily asked Google: Why aren’t you — or any other model provider — disclosing this kind of data yet?
The tech company didn’t get back to us until after we’d published Emily’s story. But its response was interesting enough that I wanted to quote some of it here.
The problem is “industry consensus,” Cooper Elsworth, a Google spokesperson, told us. “There is currently very little consensus on how to comprehensively and fairly measure the serving environmental impact of generative AI (such as text generation),” he wrote. “Without standardized, ‘apples-to-apples’ frameworks, it is difficult to compare different providers accurately.”
That’s partly because energy use — and emissions data — can vary from site to site and depend on “custom-built hardware, software compilers, and advanced inference techniques.” And he claimed Google doesn’t always have the measurement hardware in place to provide such specific estimates: “Providing precise, repeatable data requires highly advanced measurement infrastructure,” he said. “For example, software-based energy monitoring tools often suffer from sampling biases. For our study, we had to step away from top-down averages and directly measure actual energy at the physical power supply unit (PSU) level across our deployed fleet. Not all providers have the telemetry or data sets required to benchmark their operations at this level of granularity.”
Read Emily’s story to understand the other reasons why estimating — or even “guesstimating” — AI-related carbon emissions is so challenging.
A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.
Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
What is actually being done on policy when it comes to data centers — beyond moratoria of course?
So first I’d like to just talk about the point of moratoria. It’s helpful to talk about how these policies emerge in the first place. One area where moratoria are helpful is when a data center is proposed but the county has no approach for how they’d like to potentially regulate them. That’s temporary, most of the time. It lets local governments conduct research on the various impacts and also negotiate community benefits, ones that can mitigate any potential negative impacts — like Lancaster Pennsylvania, which instituted a community benefit agreement that maximized the potential benefits of development while mitigating what large data centers can do. That agreement looked at capping municipal water use at 20,000 gallons per day and requiring 100% clean energy. It had financial penalties for non-compliance. The company also committed $20 million to their local economic development and clean energy fund. There are ways to negotiate with developers.
We also see amendments to existing zoning. Data center proposals are increasingly popping up in rural areas, many of which are unzoned, so there’s no way a county can negotiate unless there’s a moratorium in place.
Other policy solutions include different performance standards or requiring on-site renewable energy, like what Jefferson County, Missouri, looked at. Also setback requirements, mandatory noise buffers, ending by-right zoning.
Where are local governments getting ideas for regulating data centers?
A lot of the technical information comes from developers. That can in cases be seen as a biased source of information. I wouldn’t say there’s a dedicated group providing assistance to local governments when a project is proposed — which is a similar story to wind industry development, where we have only a handful of consultants who provide technical advice. It can be really helpful to get a multi-disciplinary approach to hearing information. It can be helpful to have the utility commission, public health folks, those in academia, as well as the developer.
As of right now, especially in rural areas, local governments have a hard task of balancing pushback while getting the most accurate, evidence-based, neutral information to make decisions. That balance can be contentious.
What is the federal government doing on data center policy? How is the Trump administration approaching it?
A few things there. In the early days, the drive was for AI expansion and to be competitive with foreign adversaries. Now due to the amount of public pushback in red and blue localities and a more cautious approach.
I’m not seeing a lot of actual policy movement at this time.
I know the EPA is looking at the chemicals used in cooling data centers because when that water is cycled through the system, some of it is discharged into the water system, so they’re looking at the Toxic Substances and Control Act for monitoring that.
How much of an impact does this minimal federal role have on industry behavior?
Y’know, this isn’t specific to data centers. This is true for all kinds of large-scale development: there’s a need to require some sort of federal monitoring and regulation.
That’s where I see an emerging role for public health. At the federal level, there could be policy movement towards requiring some sort of environmental monitoring at data centers to make sure they’re operating responsibility. Looking at specific water use relative to water availability and what happens when there’s a time of severe, persistent drought. With air quality too — we’ve seen areas where the grid isn’t as reliable so their diesel generators are kicking on more and affecting air quality for residents.
We’re just not seeing all of that right now. We need corporate disclosure.
What do you see as the most important public health impacts from data center development?
It varies by localities. The most discussed obviously is water usage. One thing I’d note about my conversations with folks enthusiastic around emerging tech is, there are still questions that need to be asked about the capacity of localities to support a data center. Like a small town in Kansas may only be using 40% of their water for their utility needs. If a data center came online, how much of that water goes to the data center?
One area underexplored within the public health discipline is energy poverty and energy security. The ability of a household to meet the needs of everything energy provides in our lives. It’s known we have an aging electric grid but we’re not talking enough about large-scale blackouts when the grid is not sufficient to support some of these new data centers.
Plus more of the week’s big development fights.
1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.
2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.
3. Barron County, Wisconsin — The anti-solar protest is the new campaign stop in deep red Wisconsin.
4. Chesapeake, Virginia — A large battery storage project on the Virginia coastline is on the rocks amidst rampant local opposition.
5. Lewis County, West Virginia — West Virginia is now a key battleground in the fight over transmission, as a line spanning all of West Virginia and Maryland — and cutting through Data Center Alley in Virginia — causes compounding consternation.