Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

Welcome to Our Chaotic Neutral Spring

La Niña is over. El Niño is coming. In between, there’s Neutral — it’s just chaotic now.

A robin and a la niña graph
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images, NWS

For the past three years, our planet’s climate patterns have been ruled by a surprisingly long “triple-dip” La Niña. But a regime change is coming: La Niña is finally over.

One-third of the pattern of shifting winds and ocean temperatures along the Pacific that meteorologists call the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, La Niña is known for cooler temperatures and strong easterly winds. These come together to create extra-long, extra-destructive hurricane seasons, like the ones we’ve seen over the past few years, and parching the Southwest with drought.

Its counterpart, the El Niño, does the opposite, causing ocean temperatures to rise and winds to slow or even change direction. The northern United States and Canada become dryer than usual, and the Gulf Coast and South, at least in theory, see more rain and floods.

Usually, each climate pattern lasts somewhere between nine to 12 months, and we can sometimes go years without seeing either one.

While climate scientists think an El Niño is likely coming this summer, we are, for now, in the final third of ENSO, enjoying a period of relative calm that’s simply known as ENSO Neutral. This is when our planet’s climate patterns settle back to “normal,” with surface temperatures on the Pacific mostly hewing close to average and weaker easterly winds than during a La Niña.

But don’t be fooled: Calm on a global scale doesn’t necessarily mean calm on the ground.

Every year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, publishes a report called the spring outlook, which is exactly what it sounds like: a late-winter prediction of what the season ahead will look like. This year’s report, published Thursday, makes the coming spring look like a mixed bag.

First, the good news: All the rain and snow slamming into California over the last few months has, at least temporarily, helped ease the La Niña-enhanced drought that’s gripped the West for years. According to the report, “winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring.”

But easing the drought has come at a cost. Wind, floods, mudslides, and piles upon piles of snow have devastated communities and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in California — and more rain is on the way. Once all the snow that’s fallen on mountains across the country starts to melt, NOAA predicts floods will come to other parts of the country as well. "Approximately 44% of the U.S. is at risk for flooding this spring,” said Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center, in the spring outlook. Unlike the floods that hit California over the past few months, which were mostly due to torrential rain, spring floods are likely to come from rivers saturated with snowmelt overtopping their banks.

Map of flood outlook for spring 2023.Image courtesy of NOAA.


But snowmelt should bring some much-needed relief to parts of the Colorado River basin, which is in the midst of a drought that’s brought Lake Powell and Lake Mead to historic lows. Yet as droughts ease in some places, they look likely to spread or worsen in others. NOAA expects our “Neutral” spring to bring above-average temperatures and potential droughts to parts of New Mexico and Washington State that are currently drought-free.

For a period of relative calm, that sounds pretty chaotic. But an El Niño might be even worse — it tends to bring periods of warming, and some think the arrival of one this summer could be a preview of what the world would be like under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

Enjoy our chaotic Neutral moment while it lasts.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Energy

The New Campaign to Save Renewables: Lower Electricity Bills

Defenders of the Inflation Reduction Act have hit on what they hope will be a persuasive argument for why it should stay.

A leaf and a quarter.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

With the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act and its tax credits for building and producing clean energy hanging in the balance, the law’s supporters have increasingly turned to dollars-and-cents arguments in favor of its preservation. Since the election, industry and research groups have put out a handful of reports making the broad argument that in addition to higher greenhouse gas emissions, taking away these tax credits would mean higher electricity bills.

The American Clean Power Association put out a report in December, authored by the consulting firm ICF, arguing that “energy tax credits will drive $1.9 trillion in growth, creating 13.7 million jobs and delivering 4x return on investment.”

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Politics

AM Briefing: A Letter from EPA Staff

On environmental justice grants, melting glaciers, and Amazon’s carbon credits

EPA Workers Wrote an Anonymous Letter to America
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mississippi Valley this weekend • Storm Martinho pushed Portugal’s wind power generation to “historic maximums” • It’s 62 degrees Fahrenheit, cloudy, and very quiet at Heathrow Airport outside London, where a large fire at an electricity substation forced the international travel hub to close.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Trump issues executive order to expand critical mineral output

President Trump invoked emergency powers Thursday to expand production of critical minerals and reduce the nation’s reliance on other countries. The executive order relies on the Defense Production Act, which “grants the president powers to ensure the nation’s defense by expanding and expediting the supply of materials and services from the domestic industrial base.”

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Electric Vehicles

These States Are Still Pushing Public EV Charging Programs

If you live in Illinois or Massachusetts, you may yet get your robust electric vehicle infrastructure.

EV charging.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Robust incentive programs to build out electric vehicle charging stations are alive and well — in Illinois, at least. ComEd, a utility provider for the Chicago area, is pushing forward with $100 million worth of rebates to spur the installation of EV chargers in homes, businesses, and public locations around the Windy City. The program follows up a similar $87 million investment a year ago.

Federal dollars, once the most visible source of financial incentives for EVs and EV infrastructure, are critically endangered. Automakers and EV shoppers fear the Trump administration will attack tax credits for purchasing or leasing EVs. Executive orders have already suspended the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program, a.k.a. NEVI, which was set up to funnel money to states to build chargers along heavily trafficked corridors. With federal support frozen, it’s increasingly up to the automakers, utilities, and the states — the ones with EV-friendly regimes, at least — to pick up the slack.

Keep reading...Show less
Green