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Renewable energy’s biggest political liability? It may be the whales and tortoises, according to Heatmap polling.
Conflicts over the environmental impacts of energy transition technologies — some rooted in fact, others founded more in fear — have played out in myriad ways across America over the past few years, from residents of beach towns protesting against offshore wind in the name of whale safety to farm communities opposing solar and onshore wind over impacts to livestock and birds. While some of these fights have been seeded by anti-renewable interest groups, these outside actors have fertile soil to work with. Exclusive Heatmap polling conducted in April found the top concern both Democrats and Republicans have with renewable energy projects in their areas is the harm those facilities could inflict on wildlife.
Notably, almost half of all Democrats said consequences for wildlife from projects would elicit “strong concern” from them. Other big concerns for Republicans such as reliability during extreme weather and land use factors received nowhere near the same level of Democratic agreement.
It’s hard to say whether this is because people are really concerned about animals and species protection generally or because there’s a concerted public relations effort (funded in no small part by fossil fuel companies) to focus on the negative environmental effects of solar farms and wind turbines. But nevertheless, this polling result — which is being reported today for the first time — underscores a real vulnerability that energy projects labeled “clean” can face when a would-be host community is faced with information indicating they may produce pollution or harm to the environment.
It also helps explain a recent statewide poll of New Jersey residents conducted by researchers at Stockton University that found a sharp increase in the percentage of respondents opposed to offshore wind following a very public campaign to tie new offshore project development to a spate of whale deaths.
“These conflicts are real, I’m not going to say they aren’t. That’s why I say there are appropriate places to site and inappropriate places to site,” Matt Kirby, senior director of energy and landscape conservation for the National Parks Conservation Association, told me. “I hope that industry understands that it needs to have social license to operate, and it will only be able to get that if they’re a good player.”
How this played out in New Jersey should be cause for concern to anyone trying to deploy more renewable energy.
In 2019, researchers at Stockton, a public university in the state, found broad bipartisan support for offshore wind development. Then came at least a dozen dead whales that washed onto the Atlantic coastline, an incident that lacks a known cause to this day … but also spurred a non-stop anti-offshore wind campaign driven by politicians and political media figures, including those with ties to fossil fuel-funded opposition groups.
There’s been no evidence to date that the offshore wind build-out off the Atlantic coast has harmed a single whale. But studies have shown that activities related to offshore wind could harm a whale, which appears to be enough to override the benefits for some people. When Stockton pollsters checked again in September 2023 to measure support for offshore wind, they found it had plummeted. More state residents supported wind farms than opposed them, still. But support had dropped 30%, to roughly half of all participants backing the projects. Only a third of those living on the coasts were for constructing new offshore wind.
Alyssa Maurice, one of the researchers involved in the recent poll, told me there’s multiple ways to read this data, including that it may have been driven by partisanship. The whale campaign had a lot of play on Fox News (and still does today). But there’s a very real chance the campaign to tie the whale deaths and other potential environmental harms to offshore wind worked: Nearly 44% of respondents said they believed offshore wind would impact marine life “a great deal,” a figure that rose to 62% when it came to people on the coast.
“There’s now this gap between shore communities and the state that wasn’t there before,” Maurice said. “[It’s] a really stark geographic divide.”
Climate change is a major risk to wildlife habitat and imperiled species across the world — that much is plain as day. There’s a reason the survival of certain mammals, fish and fauna often described as “keystone species” are seen as bellwethers for planetary warming. When they go extinct from climate impacts to river temperatures or food availability, it portends harms that may befall other species too — including, maybe, humans.
But an unfortunate truth is that major industrial projects — even ones aimed at decarbonizing the global economy — will always impact the local environment. To build large-scale solar farms or lithium mines or sprawling CO2 pipelines, we may need to disrupt a substantial number of endangered species and their habitat, not to mention the livelihoods of countless people who make their livelihoods off the land, air, and sea, or who enjoy outdoor recreation and hunting.
These conflicts are the reason I gave a talk at the Society of Environmental Journalists’ conference this year explaining why I do not use the term “clean energy” without quotation marks — not for the derisive reasons climate deniers put scarequotes around the term, but in pursuit of accuracy and out of respect for the populations most impacted by new projects. Before I joined Heatmap, I spent years writing about mining for battery metals, and I heard countless complaints from individuals in frontline communities and human rights groups about how there’s nothing “clean” about a car made with cobalt mined by a child or lithium chemicals that sapped an aquifer dry.
That’s not to say focusing on the “clean” part of decarbonization is a bad thing — it’s just not what brings people together, according to the Heatmap poll. In fact, we found the most bipartisan agreement for supporting “clean” energy projects in two areas: job creation and reducing the nation’s dependence on foreign sources for oil and gas.
Reducing local air and water pollution? There was a 52 percentage point difference in support between Democrats and Republicans, with only a third of GOP respondents identifying it as a major driver of support. Combating climate change? That gulf widens to 66 percentage points, with only 16% GOP support.
Whether those who favor overlooking wildlife concerns in favor of deployment like it or not, these findings undergird an argument being made by the ecologically-focused segments of the climate advocacy world that planning through the transition can have a political upside.
Patrick Bigger, a senior researcher at the left-aligned Climate and Community Project, said he wasn’t surprised by Heatmap’s findings.
“Talking about conservation polls really well and talking about climate change polls really poorly” with some communities, Bigger said. “I think there’s this implicit sense by folks who care about climate action that clean and green are permanently symbiotically coded as good, and it’s very hard to break that habit until you’re confronted with the polling that this doesn’t actually play well with the communities you’re trying to reach.”
The Heatmap poll of 2,094 American adults was conducted by Embold Research via online responses from April 5 to 11, 2024. The survey included interviews with Americans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
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Elgin Energy Center is back from the dead.
At least one natural gas plant in America’s biggest energy market that was scheduled to shut down is staying open. Elgin Energy Center, an approximately 500 megawatt plant in Illinois approximately 40 miles northwest of downtown Chicago was scheduled to shut down next June, according to filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and officials from PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest regional transmission organization, governs the relevant portion of the U.S. grid. Elgin’s parent company “no longer intends to deactivate and retire all four units ... at the Elgin Energy Center,” according to a letter dated September 4 and posted to PJM’s website Wednesday.
The Illinois plant is something of a poster child for PJM’s past few years. In 2022, it was one of many natural gas plants to shut down during Winter Storm Elliott as the natural gas distribution seized up. Its then-parent company, Lincoln Power — owned by Cogentrix, the Carlyle Group’s vehicle for its power business — filed for bankruptcy the following year, after PJM assessed almost $40 million in penalties for failing to operate during the storm. In June, a bankruptcy court approved the acquisition of the Elgin plant, along with one other, by Middle River Power, a generation business backed by Avenue Capital, a $12 billion investment firm, in a deal that was closed in December.
The decision to continue operating the plant past its planned deactivation comes as PJM set a new price record at its capacity auction in July, during which generators submitted bids for power that can be deployed when the grid is under stress due to high demand. The $14.7 billion auction was a massive jump from the previous one, which finished at just over $2 billion. Ironically, one reason the most recent auction was so expensive is that PJM gave less credit to natural gas generators for their capacity following Winter Storm Elliott, which then drove up auction prices, leading to large payouts for gas plants. PJM said the high auction prices were “caused primarily by a large number of generator retirements.”
In a bankruptcy court filing in 2023, Lincoln Power’s chief restructuring officer said that the company “was experiencing a liquidity crunch” due to low prices in past capacity auction, which meant that it had “received significantly less revenues for the capacity they sold in those Capacity Auctions as compared to previous Capacity Auctions.” With higher capacity revenues in PJM, presumably Elgin's business has improved.
Many analysts are skeptical that PJM can quickly get new load onto the system to bring prices down meaningfully in subsequent auctions — the next one is in December — and the PJM queue for new projects is absurdly clogged. This only juices the incentives for older fossil plants to stay open.
“This shortage of capacity is happening immediately,” Nicholas Freschi, senior associate at Gabel Associates, told me last week. “There might be more resources, and PJM might be able to coerce some retiring or not participating plants to make up for the shortfall. It’s an immediate problem.”
Neither Middle River nor its attorney representing the company before FERC returned requests for comment.
On the presidential debate, California’s wildfires, and the nuclear workforce
Current conditions: Hurricane Francine is approaching Louisiana as a Category 1 storm • The streets of Vietnam’s capital of Hanoi are flooded after Typhoon Yagi, and the death toll has reached 143 • Residents of Nigeria’s northern Borno state are urged to watch out for crocodiles and snakes that escaped from a zoo due to flooding.
Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris squared off on the debate stage in Philadelphia last night. Here are some important climate and energy highlights from the evening:
Three large wildfires – the Line fire, the Bridge fire, and the Airport fire – are burning in Southern California, fueled by intense heat and thick, dry vegetation. Already more than 100,000 acres have been scorched. The Line fire is closing in on the popular vacation destination Big Bear, and is threatening some 65,000 structures. Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said the scale of the emergencies is straining firefighting resources, and FEMA is sending financial aid to the state. In neighboring Nevada, the Davis Fire has grown to nearly 6,000 acres and is burning toward ski resorts in Tahoe. Temperatures in the region started to cool yesterday after a long and brutal heat wave. The weather shift could help firefighters bring the blazes under control.
The White House is launching an American Climate Corps national tour this fall to highlight the work being carried out by corps members in different communities and showcase important projects. The events will feature remarks from the administration and other officials, roundtable talks with ACC members, and swearing-in ceremonies. The tour began in Maine this week with a focus on climate resilience and urban forestry, and heads to Arizona next week. The rest of the schedule is as follows, with more dates to come:
The number of students studying to become nuclear engineers is declining as demand for carbon-free nuclear energy is on the rise, according toThe Wall Street Journal. Citing data from the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, the Journal reported that just 454 students in the U.S. graduated with a degree in the field in 2022, down 25% from a decade earlier. Meanwhile, the industry’s workforce is aging. “We need nuclear expertise in order to combat climate change,” said Sara Pozzi, professor of nuclear engineering and radiological sciences at the University of Michigan. “We are at a crucial point where we need to produce the new generation of nuclear experts so that they can work with the older generation and learn from them.” The drop in new recruits comes down to nuclear’s image problem thanks to public disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima, the Journal speculated.
Critical metal refining company Nth Cycle announced this week it has become the first company to produce nickel and cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in the U.S. following the opening of its commercial-scale facility in Ohio. The company’s “Oyster” technology uses electricity to turn recyclable industrial scrap and mined ore into MHP, a key component in clean-energy technologies like batteries. “This revolutionary innovation replaces pyrometallurgy with one of the cleanest technologies in the world, and accelerates the net zero targets of the public and private sector,” the company said in a press release. It claims the Ohio unit can produce 900 metric tons of MHP per year, which would be enough to supply batteries for 22 million cell phones. The company says its process reduces emissions by 90% compared to traditional mining methods and can help EV manufacturers meet the IRA’s sourcing requirements.
A new nationwide poll of 1,000 registered U.S. voters found that 90% of respondents support President Biden’s federal clean energy incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, including 78% of respondents who said they were Trump voters.
Maybe you’ve never heard of it. Maybe you know it too well. But to a certain type of clean energy wonk, it amounts to perhaps the three most dreaded words in climate policy: the interconnection queue.
The queue is the process by which utilities decide which wind and solar farms get to hook up to the power grid in the United States. Across much of the country, it has become so badly broken and clogged that it can take more than a decade for a given project to navigate.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob speak with two experts about how to understand — and how to fix — what is perhaps the biggest obstacle to deploying more renewables on the U.S. power grid. Tyler Norris is a doctoral student at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. He was formerly vice president of development at Cypress Creek Renewables, and he served on North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper’s Carbon Policy Working Group. Claire Wayner is a senior associate at RMI’s carbon-free electricity program, where she works on the clean and competitive grids team. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Can I interject and just ask why, over the past decade, the interconnection queue got much longer — but also over the past decade, 15 years, the U.S. grid did change in character and in fuel type a lot, right? We went from burning a lot of coal to a lot of natural gas. And that transition is often cited as one of the model transitions, one of the few energy transitions to happen globally that happened at the speed with which we would need to decarbonize. Obviously, switching coal to gas is not decarbonizing, but it is a model — it happened fast enough that it is a good model for what decarbonizing would look like in order to meet climate goals.
Evidently, that did not run into these kind of same interconnection queue problems. Why is that? Is that because we were swapping in within individual power plants? We were just changing the furnace from a coal furnace to a gas furnace? Is that because these were larger projects and so it didn’t back up in the queue in the same way that a lot of smaller solar or wind farms do?
Claire Wayner: I would say all the reasons you just gave are valid, yeah. The coal to gas transition involved, likely, a lot of similar geographic locations. With wind and solar, we’re seeing them wanting to build on the grid and in a lot of cases in new, rather remote locations that are going to require new types of grid upgrades that the coal to gas transition just doesn’t have.
Jesse Jenkins: Maybe it is — to use a metaphor here — it’s a little bit like traffic congestion. If you add a generator to the grid, it’s trying to ship its power through the grid, and that decision to add your power mix to the grid combines with everyone else that’s also generating and consuming power to drive traffic jams or congestion in different parts of the grid, just like your decision to hop in the car and drive to work or to go into the city for the weekend to see a show or whatever you’re doing. It’s not just your decision. It’s everyone’s combined decisions that affects travel times on the grid.
Now, the big difference between the grid and travel on roads or most other forms of networks we’re used to is that you don’t get to choose which path to go down. If you’re sending electricity to the grid, electricity flows with physics down the path of least resistance or impedance, which is the alternating current equivalent of resistance. And so it’s a lot more like rivers flowing downhill from gravity, right? You don’t get to choose which branch of the river you go down. It’s just, you know, gravity will take you. And so you adding your power flows to the grid creates complicated flows based on the physics of this mesh network that spans a continent and interacts with everyone else on the grid.
And so when you’re going from probably a few dozen large natural gas generators added that operate very similarly to the plants that they’re replacing to hundreds of gigawatts across thousands of projects scattered all over the grid with very complicated generation profiles because they’re weather-dependent renewables, it’s just a completely different challenge for the utilities.
So the process that the regional grid operators developed in the 2000s, when they were restructuring and taking over that role of regional grid operator, it’s just not fit for purpose at all for what we face today. And I want to highlight another thing you mentioned, which is the software piece of it, too. These processes, they are using software and corporate processes that were also developed 10 or 20 years ago. And we all know that software and computing techniques have gotten quite a bit better over a decade or two. And rarely have utilities and grid operators really kept pace with those capabilities.
Wayner: Can I just say, I’ve heard that in some regions, interconnection consists of still sending back and forth Excel files. To Tyler’s point earlier that we only just now are getting data on the interconnection queue nationwide and how it stands, that’s one challenge that developers are facing is a lack of data transparency and rapid processing from the transmission providers and the grid operators.
And so, to use an analogy that my colleague Sarah Toth uses a lot, which I really love: Imagine if we had a Domino’s pizza tracker for the interconnection queue, and that developers could just log on and see how their projects are doing in many, if not most regions. They don’t even have that visibility. They don’t know when their pizza is going to get delivered, or if it’s in the oven.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.