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Is the ocean warming up because too little dust is blowing over from the Sahara?
Lately, the North Atlantic Ocean has been more than just hot. It has been anomalously, weirdly hot. On Sunday, the ocean’s average surface temperature was 74 degrees Fahrenheit, or 23 degrees Celsius — a number normally seen a month from now, in late July. The Atlantic was warmer last month than in any previous May since 1850, according to the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service. Even more impressively, it beat the previous record by more than any previous record, for any month, has been broken. June seems virtually guaranteed to set another all-time high.
This outrageous warmth is primarily caused by climate change. And in climate science, it is generally not good news when a year’s temperature line is so immediately visible above the pack:
The North Atlantic’s sea surface temperature by date.Courtesy of ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute from the University of Maine
The heat wave is particularly intense in the North Atlantic’s eastern half, which runs from Mauritania to Portugal, France, and the British Isles. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the marine heat wave around the United Kingdom qualifies as a Level 5, or “beyond extreme,” event.
Such warm water would normally give rise to enormous hurricanes. And the western Atlantic has been off to a productive start, creating Tropical Storms Brett and Cindy earlier this month. But since the western Atlantic, which borders North America and the Caribbean, has been chillier, those storms have been unable to survive the journey across the ocean and have been torn apart by wind shear.
Under other circumstances, a marine heat wave of this magnitude would be dangerous for underwater animals and plants — but perhaps a curiosity for land-dwelling humans. Of course, any anomaly of this magnitude — more than two standard deviations above the trend — is extremely concerning and might raise fears that the planet has entered some kind of new normal. The Atlantic’s outrageous warmth has also attracted wider attention because it raises one of the most controversial questions in climate science: Did we accidentally stop geoengineering the oceans?
Three years ago, the United Nations agency that regulates shipping mandated that cargo ships switch from the high-sulfur form of fuel that they were previously using to a cleaner, lower-sulfur type of fuel. When burned, sulfur creates a pollutant called sulfur dioxide, which causes haze, acid rain, and health problems. The mandate worked: Ships have moved away from high-sulfur fuels, which has significantly cut aerosol emissions.
Which seems like an environmental-policy success story. Except that Leon Simons, a researcher at the Dutch chapter of the Club of Rome, argues that it was a grave mistake. Aerosol pollution reflects the sun’s rays back into space: It’s not wrong to see it as a form of solar-radiation management, or geoengineering. Aerosol emissions cool the planet by about 0.5 degrees Celsius, or about 1 degree Fahrenheit, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Aerosol pollution doesn’t just refer to sulfur dioxide, but to any small particle of a solid or liquid that is larger than a molecule but small enough to float in the air.)
When ships began burning low-sulfur fuel, they reduced some of this net cooling effect — even as they kept pouring carbon dioxide and other climate pollution into the atmosphere. Simons asserts that this inadvertent end to geoengineering is partially to blame for the ongoing heat wave afflicting the world’s oceans.
Other researchers are far less certain. Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami, told me that the low-sulfur timeline doesn’t add up. Cargo ships had to stop using high-sulfur fuels by January 1, 2020, and sulfur dioxide and aerosols only persist in the atmosphere for a few days or weeks. Those cooling aerosols rained out two and a half years ago. So why did the Atlantic Ocean start cooking in February of this year?
“I don’t totally buy the low-sulfur fuels. It doesn’t explain the past two or three months becoming abruptly record-breaking,” he said. “It might be a driver, but it’s not the reason.”
He explains the North Atlantic heat wave by looking to two other far more weather-related factors. First, he said, the Sahara Desert is generating less dust than it normally does. Every spring and summer, winds moving across northern Africa toss up enormous amounts of sand and dust from the Sahara — so much that it creates a recognizably beige haze over the North Atlantic. Like any other aerosol, that Saharan dust reflects sunlight and cools the Earth’s surface.
In a normal year, so much of that dust would have been kicked up by now that it would have blown all the way to South Florida, according to Michael Lowry, a meteorologist at ABC 10, a Miami news station. But this year, winds haven’t picked up as much dust, and the first major Saharan dust haze only appeared in the past week or so. The satellite DSCOVR picked up the first images of that dust storm on Saturday:
An image from the DSCOVR spacecraft’s Earth Polychromatic Camera, or EPIC, captured on Saturday, June 24, 2023.NASA / Heatmap Illustration
With less dust to reflect the sun’s rays, more have reached the ocean — and warmed its surface.
Second, the weather over the North Atlantic has been unusually stagnant. The wind plays a big role in warming up or cooling down the ocean surface: When winds push the oceans around a lot, surface water tends to mix with deeper water and the air, producing a cooling effect; when winds slacken, the sea sits stagnant and heats up.
The winds have been still lately. There’s a “large-scale blocking pattern” in the jet stream that is preventing storms from moving across the North Atlantic, and generally discouraging winds from pushing around the sea surface, McNoldy said.
The cause of all this stagnation is an atypically weak “Azores High,” a quasi-permanent high pressure system that sits over the North Atlantic throughout the year. It hasn’t drawn in Saharan dust or generated winds to push ocean water around, turning the western Atlantic into the planetary equivalent of a kiddie pool on a hot day. “It’s allowing the ocean to really cook,” McNoldy said.
The warmth is now so pronounced that even a change in weather won’t drive it out for some time. Even if the circumstances causing the warming were to fade now, McNoldy told me, the ocean is “not gonna get back to normal any time soon.”
That could eventually cause problems for folks in the Americas. Right now, the western Atlantic is generating storms like it’s the late summer, while the cooler eastern Atlantic is tearing them apart. Were the eastern Atlantic to get just a little warmer, it might let those storms survive or even strengthen them — leading to an unusually strong hurricane season.
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From the Inflation Reduction Act to the Trump mega-law, here are 20 years of changes in one easy-to-read cheat sheet.
The landmark Republican reconciliation bill, which President Trump signed on July 4, has shattered the tax credits that served as the centerpiece of the country’s clean energy and climate policy.
Starting as soon as October, the law — which Trump has dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — will cut off incentives for Americans to install solar panels, purchase electric vehicles, or make energy efficiency improvements to their homes. It’s projected to raise household energy costs while increasing America’s carbon emissions by 190 million metric tons a year by 2030, according to the REPEAT Project at Princeton University.
The loss of these incentives will in part offset the continuation of tax cuts that largely benefit wealthy Americans. But the law as a whole won’t come close to paying for those cuts in their entirety. The legislation is expected to swell federal deficits by nearly $3.8 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank. This explosive deficit expansion could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, possibly further constraining energy development.
President Trump has described the law as ending Democrats’ “green new scam,” and conservative lawmakers have celebrated the termination of Biden-era energy programs. The law is particularly devastating for programs encouraging electric vehicle sales, as well as wind and solar energy deployment.
But the act is more complicated than a simple repeal of Democrats’ 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. In one case, Trump’s big law ends a federal energy incentive that has been in place, in some form, since the 1990s. In others, Republicans have tied up existing energy incentives with new restrictions, regulations, and red tape.
Some parts of the IRA have even remained intact. GOP lawmakers opted to preserve Biden’s big expansion of incentives to support nuclear energy and advanced geothermal development. That said, the Trump administration could still gut these tax credits by making them effectively unusable through executive action.
It can be confusing to keep the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s many changes to federal energy law in your head — even for experts. That’s why Heatmap News is excited to publish this new reference “cheat sheet”on the past, present, and future of federal energy tax credits, compiled by an all-star collection of analysts and researchers.
The summary takes each clean energy-related provision in the U.S. tax code and summarizes how (and whether) it existed in the 2000s and 2010s, how the Inflation Reduction Act changed it, and how the new OBBBA will change it again. It was compiled by Shane Londagin, a policy advisor at the think tank Third Way; Luke Bassett, a former Biden administration official and Senate Energy committee staffer; Avi Zevin, a former Biden official and a partner at the energy law firm Roselle LLP; and researchers at the REPEAT Project, an energy analysis group at Princeton University. (Note that I co-host the podcast Shift Key with Jesse Jenkins, who leads the REPEAT Project.)
You can find the full summary below.
On presidential proclamations, Pentagon pollution, and cancelled transmission
Current conditions: Over 1,000 people have evacuated the region of Seosan in South Korea following its heaviest rainfall since 1904 • Forecasts now point toward the “surprising return” of La Niña this fall • More than 30 million people from Louisiana through the Appalachians are at risk of flash flooding this weekend due to an incoming tropical rainstorm.
The Hugh L. Spurlock Generating Station in Maysville, Kentucky.Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
President Trump on Thursday signed four proclamations allowing certain highly polluting industries to bypass regulations established by the Biden administration. In addition to chemical manufacturers that help produce semiconductors and medical device sterilizers, the proclamations singled out coal-fired power plants and taconite iron ore processing facilities for two years of exemptions. Taconite is a low-grade iron ore primarily mined in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Minnesota, which is then processed for use in the production of iron and steel. Trump justified the move by arguing that compliance with the current emissions rule for coal-fired power plants raises the “unacceptable risk” of shutdowns, “eliminating thousands of jobs, placing our electrical grid at risk, and threatening broader, harmful economic and energy security effects,” while the iron processing emissions rule “risks forcing shutdowns, reducing domestic production, and undermining the nation’s ability to supply steel for defense, energy, and critical manufacturing.”
The proclamations allow industries to comply with the Environmental Protection Agency standards that predate former President Joe Biden’s tenure. Trump justified the pause by claiming the former administration had mandated compliance with “standards that rely on emissions-control technologies that have not been demonstrated to work.” Researchers have previously found that air pollutants related to coal power plants cause nearly 3,000 attributable deaths per year. Taconite iron ore processing facilities produce harmful acid gases, including hydrogen chloride and hydrogen fluoride, as well as mercury, which have been linked to numerous adverse health effects.
Separately, the House passed Trump’s $9 billion rescissions package late last night, which includes cuts to international climate, energy, and environmental programs like the Clean Technology Fund. Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Mike Turner of Ohio joined Democrats in objecting to the bill. Trump is expected to sign the package Friday. An additional rescissions package is expected “soon.”
The Pentagon’s 2026 budget will enable the Department of Defense’s planet-warming emissions to grow by an additional 26 megatons, or about the equivalent of 68 gas power plants, a new analysis by the Climate and Community Institute found. The U.S. military was already the single largest institutional polluter in the world due to its “vast global operations — from jet fuel consumption and overseas deployments to domestic base maintenance,” as well as its manufacturing of weapons and vehicles, the think tank notes. With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Pentagon’s budget will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, representing a 17% increase over 2024. Its emissions, in turn, could grow to the point that if the DOD were its own country, it’d be the 38th largest polluter in the world, producing more CO2 emissions than the Netherlands, Bangladesh, or Venezuela. But “the Pentagon’s true climate impact will almost certainly be worse” than what the researchers found, The Guardian notes, “as the calculation does not include emissions generated from future supplemental funding such as the billions of dollars appropriated separately for military equipment for Israel and Ukraine in recent years.”
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New York’s Public Service Commission decided Thursday against moving forward with a major transmission project that would have had the capacity to deliver at least 4,770 megawatts of offshore wind power to New York City by the early 2030s. The commissioners said they were unable to justify “charging ratepayers for the multibillion-dollar project when feds are stymying” offshore wind, New York Focus’ Colin Kinniburgh reported on Bluesky. “We will continue to press forward regarding infrastructure needs for offshore wind in the future once the federal government resumes leasing and permitting for wind energy generation projects,” PSC chair Rory Christian said.
The canceled Public Policy Transmission Need determination was not specific to a particular offshore wind project, but rather was intended to match New York’s general offshore wind ambitions when it was approved in 2023. But as Heatmap has previously reported, Trump’s crusade against offshore wind has been a “worst case scenario” for the industry since day one, and, per ABC News 10, effectively “eliminates any reason for building new power lines in the first place.”
Microsoft has inked a deal to purchase 4.9 million metric tons of durable carbon dioxide removal from Vaulted Deep, a waste management startup, for an undisclosed amount. The companies boasted that the deal, which runs through 2038, represents “the second-largest carbon removal deal to date.” Vaulted Deep, an Xprize Carbon runner-up, diverts organic waste from landfills and incinerators by injecting it into wells thousands of feet underground using fracking technologies, which it says ensures over 1,000 years of durability, TechCrunch reports. Since Vaulted’s launch in the summer of 2023, the Houston-based company has removed 18,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide. Microsoft, meanwhile, has slipped behind its 2020 goal to remove more carbon from the atmosphere than it generates by the end of the decade due to its rush to build out data centers.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s reorganization and downsizing are set to continue, with the agency offering another round of buyouts and early retirements to staffers in offices it aims to restructure, Politico reports. Among the affected offices are the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, which the EPA said it seeks to tweak to “better address pollution problems that impact American communities by re-aligning enforcement with the law to deliver economic prosperity and ensure compliance with agency regulations,” as well as the Office of Land and Emergency Management, which works on Superfund and disaster response issues. The Office of Research and Development, the Office of Mission Support, and the Office of the Chief Financial Officer are also affected.
Separately, in a preliminary decision earlier this week, the agency moved to block the state of Colorado from closing its six remaining coal-fired power plants by 2031. Colorado was attempting to codify the retirement dates in its Regional Haze Plan, which is typically used to protect the air quality of federal wilderness and national parks; however, the EPA rejected the proposal, according to CPR News. “We believe that the Clean Air Act does not give anybody the authority to shut down coal generation plants against the owner’s will,” Cyrus Western, the administrator of EPA Region 8, said. Jeremy Nichols, a senior advocate for the Center of Biological Diversity’s environmental health program, claimed the EPA’s move shows the limits of what climate-conscious states can do on their own. “We may have state rules, but they won't be federally approved,” Nichols told CPR.
“There are so many developers and so many projects in so many places of the world that there are examples where either something goes wrong with a project or a developer doesn’t follow best practices. I think those have a lot more staying power in the public perception of renewable energy than the many successful projects that go without a hiccup and don’t bother people.” —Heatmap Pro’s Charlie Clynes, in conversation with Jael Holzman about his new project tracking all of the nation’s county-level restrictions on renewable energy.
New York City may very well be the epicenter of this particular fight.
It’s official: the Moss Landing battery fire has galvanized a gigantic pipeline of opposition to energy storage systems across the country.
As I’ve chronicled extensively throughout this year, Moss Landing was a technological outlier that used outdated battery technology. But the January incident played into existing fears and anxieties across the U.S. about the dangers of large battery fires generally, latent from years of e-scooters and cellphones ablaze from faulty lithium-ion tech. Concerned residents fighting projects in their backyards have successfully seized upon the fact that there’s no known way to quickly extinguish big fires at energy storage sites, and are winning particularly in wildfire-prone areas.
How successful was Moss Landing at enlivening opponents of energy storage? Since the California disaster six months ago, more than 6 gigawatts of BESS has received opposition from activists explicitly tying their campaigns to the incident, Heatmap Pro® researcher Charlie Clynes told me in an interview earlier this month.
Matt Eisenson of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Law agreed that there’s been a spike in opposition, telling me that we are currently seeing “more instances of opposition to battery storage than we have in past years.” And while Eisenson said he couldn’t speak to the impacts of the fire specifically on that rise, he acknowledged that the disaster set “a harmful precedent” at the same time “battery storage is becoming much more present.”
“The type of fire that occurred there is unlikely to occur with modern technology, but the Moss Landing example [now] tends to come up across the country,” Eisenson said.
Some of the fresh opposition is in rural agricultural communities such as Grundy County, Illinois, which just banned energy storage systems indefinitely “until the science is settled.” But the most crucial place to watch seems to be New York City, for two reasons: One, it’s where a lot of energy storage is being developed all at once; and two, it has a hyper-saturated media market where criticism can receive more national media attention than it would in other parts of the country.
Someone who’s felt this pressure firsthand is Nick Lombardi, senior vice president of project development for battery storage company NineDot Energy. NineDot and other battery storage developers had spent years laying the groundwork in New York City to build out the energy storage necessary for the city to meet its net-zero climate goals. More recently they’ve faced crowds of protestors against a battery storage facility in Queens, and in Staten Island endured hecklers at public meetings.
“We’ve been developing projects in New York City for a few years now, and for a long time we didn’t run into opposition to our projects or really any sort of meaningful negative coverage in the press. All of that really changed about six months ago,” Lombardi said.
The battery storage developer insists that opposition to the technology is not popular and represents a fringe group. Lombardi told me that the company has more than 50 battery storage sites in development across New York City, and only faced “durable opposition” at “three or four sites.” The company also told me it has yet to receive the kind of email complaint flood that would demonstrate widespread opposition.
This is visible in the politicians who’ve picked up the anti-BESS mantle: GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s become a champion for the cause, but mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” campaign itself would provide for the construction of these facilities. (While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has not focused on BESS, it’s quite unlikely the climate hawkish democratic socialist would try to derail these projects.)
Lombardi told me he now views Moss Landing as a “catalyst” for opposition in the NYC metro area. “Suddenly there’s national headlines about what’s happening,” he told me. “There were incidents in the past that were in the news, but Moss Landing was headline news for a while, and that combined with the fact people knew it was happening in their city combined to create a new level of awareness.”
He added that six months after the blaze, it feels like developers in the city have a better handle on the situation. “We’ve spent a lot of time in reaction to that to make sure we’re organized and making sure we’re in contact with elected officials, community officials, [and] coordinated with utilities,” Lombardi said.