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Rob and Jesse talk Trump, contracts, and climate messaging with the lawmaker from Hawaii.

The first few weeks of the new Trump administration have seen an onslaught of anti-climate actions: an order punishing the wind industry, an attempted reversal of the Environmental Protection Administration’s climate authority, and a brazen — and possibly unconstitutional — attempt to freeze all spending under Biden’s climate laws. Democrats’ climate legacy seems to be under assault. How will they respond?
Senator Brian Schatz has represented Hawaii in the U.S. Senate since 2010. He is the chief deputy whip for the Democratic Party. A self-described climate hawk, he helped shape what became the Inflation Reduction Act, and he has emerged as an early voice of opposition to the second Trump administration. He was previously Hawaii’s lieutenant governor and a state lawmaker.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk to Schatz about congressional Democrats’ plan to push back against Trump, what the clean energy industry needs to do for the next four years, and whether this climate backlash to Trump should be different than the last one. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: What can Democrats or others in opposition do to shorten that timeline, so that there is a political cost that’s felt more expediently and they do pull back from this kind of effort?
Brian Schatz: Look, I think there is strength in numbers, and so I think everyone has to — like, we can’t do this in secret, because everybody’s too afraid of being targeted. And you know, I’ve just experienced this over the last two weeks. Everyone is … you know, doesn’t want to poke their head up because the nail that stands up is pounded down. And that’s how autocrats work, right? Is that if you stand up for the rule of law, if you stand up and say, hey, I don’t think this is a good decision, then you are putting your own personal, professional safety at risk. And so there is strength in numbers.
And I’ll just also … I really strongly encourage anybody who listens to this podcast who is in the business of being a clean energy developer, do not plead with the monarch for mercy on your own project. That is what they want. They want you to come in and treat the federal government like it’s the Ford Foundation, or the Pew Charitable Trust, or whomever. And you’re basically saying, I know you don’t want to do DEI, but let me explain to you why this isn’t DEI. I know this says climate, but in fact, really, it’s severe weather adaptation.
Listen, listen, what’s happening is unlawful. What’s happening is impermissible. And the more we get people individually pleading for mercy, the more screwed we all are. We all have to hang together. It’s the American Clean Power Association. It’s the energy company that does both clean and fossil energy. It’s the transmission and distribution companies. It’s the manufacturers. It’s labor. It’s Wall Street. It’s K Street. Like, everyone has to hang together and say, not only is this good for business, but there’s something that is foundationally worse for business than any individual policy decision. And that is the idea that a president can come in and ignore the law. Because once you believe that it depends on an election whether or not a law is going to stick, the United States ceases to be as investable as it once was.
And one of the things that makes us the most powerful economy in the world is, whatever else is going on, if you’re an international investor, you have a number of factors — you know, how are you going to get your money out. But you’re always looking for political and policy stability. And the United States is always able to say, on rule of law, on political and policy stability, we rank number one, two, three, or four. And right now, it is fair to question whether or not we’re an investable place if we believe that a president can come in and just ignore a duly enacted statute.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Download Heatmap Labs and Hydrostor’s free report to discover the crucial role of long duration energy storage in ensuring a reliable, clean future and stable grid. Learn more about Hydrostor here.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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Rob talks through Rhodium Groups’s latest emissions report with climate and energy director Ben King.
America’s estimated greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.4% last year — which is a big deal since they had been steady or falling in 2023 and 2024. More ominously, U.S. emissions grew faster than our gross domestic product last year, suggesting that the economy got less efficient from a climate pollution perspective.
Is this Trump’s fault? The AI boom’s? Or was it a weird fluke? In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob talks to Ben King, a climate and energy director at the Rhodium Group, about why U.S. emissions grew and what it says about the underlying structure of the American economy. They talk about the power grid, the natural gas system, and whether industry is going to overtake other emissions drivers as once thought.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: At the same time there’s been rising total electrification of the vehicle fleet, there’s also been rising hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales. Do we have a sense of how that breakdown is happening, in terms of reduced carbon intensity of the transportation sector and the light duty fleet?
Ben King: It’s a good question. We haven’t disaggregated the … When I say electric vehicles, I’m talking broadly about both full battery electric, and then plug-in hybrids. And then, I think we say this in paper, but I think there was pretty robust growth for gasoline hybrids as which, you know, relative to just a pure gas car, is better from an emissions perspective.
Meyer: Well, it’s funny because if you care about decarbonization and getting to net zero as soon as possible, you could have to poo poo hybrids. But if you’re actually involved in the game to just keep as much emissions out of the sky as possible, and you’re looking to net those 2% declines every year, hybrids are pretty important because they are basically a drop-in replacement to gasoline car use that burns less gasoline.
King: The other interesting thing that gasoline hybrids does for the sector is it finds interesting unanticipated uses for all this battery manufacturing capacity that we’ve built in the U.S., or that we stand to build. Our forecast for pure EVs — so battery electrics, plug-in hybrids — looks a little worse in the out years because of the tax credits going away, because of the EPA tailpipe regulations going away at the same time that the anticipated demand pull from those policies, plus the advanced manufacturing tax credit — the 45X tax credit — has really been wildly successful in standing up a battery manufacturing industry here in the U.S.
If you want that capacity to be around, one thing that you could do with those batteries is put them into hybrids, right? You might have to retool the line a little bit to accommodate different sizes and stuff, build the expertise, build the workforce, etc., such that when the floodgates open again for electric vehicle adoption, for instance, we’ve got substantial battery manufacturing capacity here domestically.
Mentioned:
Rhodium Group: Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025
Rob on Rhodium’s 2023 emissions report
And here’s Rhodium’s 2024 emissions report
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
The interior secretary and former North Dakota governor used to praise liberty. Now he is betraying it.
One thing has long stood out about U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum: Even before he ran for office, he talked a lot about freedom. It’s really striking, even for a Republican.
Perhaps you don’t know Burgum’s story. He grew up a shaggy-haired boy in tiny Arthur, North Dakota. In 1983, he mortgaged a part of his family farm to fund a software company, Great Plains Software. The company was a success, and it made him wealthy as a young man.
Burgum talked about the startup — and the new technology industry to which it belonged — as something nobler and higher than just a hustle. The software industry, he told lawmakers in 1998, helped make the people who participated in it free because it helped them flourish. “Part of the appeal of this industry is the freedom to succeed or fail based solely on one’s own abilities,” he said. He was known as a good boss.
Microsoft bought his company, making Burgum a billionaire. He stayed there for a few years, then became an investor and a real estate developer. In 2016, he ran to be North Dakota’s governor and won by a landslide.
Observing Burgum for a few years now, I’ve seen him talk about freedom in a few ways. He is a federalist. Although he praised the First Amendment’s liberties, which he describes as inherent and God-given, he speaks often about the Tenth Amendment, too — the part of the Bill of Rights that says powers not delegated to the federal government are retained by the states and the people.
That idea, he said while running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2023, was something national Republicans too often forgot. “When I see the Republican Party try to get into things where we’re also overreaching, it also goes against this principle. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all federal rule — it should be returned to the states,” Burgum said.
Even his criticism of President Joe Biden’s “green fantasy energy policies” was rooted in this understanding of freedom. It wasn’t just that Biden’s policies limited consumer choice, he said, but that they empowered freedom’s enemies. They kept U.S. oil in the ground while encouraging Americans to buy electric vehicles and critical minerals from China.
“To defeat those adversaries, we must have a leader who understands the power of free societies and free markets,” he said.
Burgum didn’t win the 2024 nomination, and he wasn’t — as some hoped — picked for vice president on the ticket, either. But he won control of Trump’s energy agenda. Today, Burgum not only runs the Interior Department, but also chairs the National Energy Dominance Council, an ad hoc body that oversees energy and environment policy.
He’s kept talking about freedom in his new role — and he connects liberty to the eternal human struggle to flourish. “Human flourishing in this world has always been dependent on affordable and reliable energy,” he told Stanford students last year.
Which is why I was astounded to see this post last week:
Now, Burgum is a light-hearted guy, and obviously, we’re meant to chuckle. It’s a joke. Alaska and Washington, D.C., are part of the “old interior,” but Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, is the “new interior” — future American territory.
Burgum defended himself on Fox News last Thursday. “Who knew that posting a factual map of Alaska and Greenland would be triggering to those folks who do not fully understand the importance of Greenland and the strategic nature of protecting the United States of America?” he said.
Burgum is wrong. His map was not factual: Greenland is not part of the American interior; it is part of Denmark. To describe it as the “interior” of America should humiliate Burgum’s liberty-loving soul. But what we can tell from this tweet is that Burgum is mentally preparing himself for a terrible betrayal of the values and ideas he once celebrated.
What would that betrayal be? Nothing less than the open theft of Greenlanders’ most fundamental freedoms. On Fox, Burgum said that Trump wanted to “buy” Greenland — but this is such a twisting and abrasing of the truth as to make a patriot yelp. Trump desires Greenland by any means, and he is willing to use the military to bully Denmark and the Greenlandic people into selling their sovereignty.
This is not friendly commerce between two equals, as a free market requires, but rather petty and corrupt gangsterism. Trump is shoving a gun in Denmark’s face, muttering, We can do this the easy way or the hard way. Burgum claims to see nothing wrong with this degeneracy.
He should. Less than two years ago, Burgum praised the Constitution and “the historic and aspirational vision presented by our Founding Fathers.” That cohort’s insight — the reason we remember its members now, despite their flaws — was that the most fundamental political freedom is political self-determination. “All men are, by nature, equal and free,” wrote James Wilson, one of only six men to sign both the Declaration and the Constitution. “No one has a right to any authority over another without his consent: all lawful government is founded on the consent of those who are subject to it.”
Yet Burgum would help establish Trump’s authority over more than 55,000 Greenlanders without their consent and over their objections — a government that would reek of illegality from its birthpangs. And Burgum would be its midwife. The Office of Insular Affairs, which he oversees as part of the Interior Department, manages America’s territories and freely associated states, such as Puerto Rico and Palau. Greenland could soon fall under its purview, too. Burgum could easily become Greenland’s colonial governor, its federal subjugator.
All lawful government is founded on the consent of those who are subject to it. I have been to Greenland. It is an austere and beautiful country, home to a population of independent and freedom-loving people who want to prosper, raise their families, farm, hunt, thrive, and flourish. It should sound familiar: Greenlanders are not so far from Burgum’s old North Dakota constituents.
Either Burgum will now see the resemblance and desist from Trump’s corrupt attack on liberty, democracy, and the principle of self-government itself — either he will block it, delay it, never defend it in public or in private, and never joke about the wicked betrayal of an ally again — either he will review and revise the resignation letter in his desk drawer — either he will, in other words, act as a free man, or he should stop lying to Americans about his love of freedom and admit that he now believes instead that might makes right — that Donald Trump’s word is law, or close enough to it — and clarify for us, at last, that he has already become one of the president’s moral degenerates.
“Ronald Reagan famously told us, ‘Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction,’” an earlier version of Doug Burgum once told us. It was 2024, and he was running for president, addressing Republicans in Florida. His political prospects had never looked better.
Burgum paused for a second. He wanted the audience to think about the quote — to stick with Reagan’s words.
“Sometimes people remember that [line],” he said, “but they forget the second part of the quote, and I think it’s the most important: ‘Freedom must be fought for and protected, or we’ll spend our later years telling our grandchildren what it was like when America was free.’”
To fight and protect freedom — what would such an act demand of Doug Burgum in this moment, when a president is threatening America’s neighbors and trying to impose the very definition of unfreedom on its friends? Burgum was a thoughtful politician once: an independent and heterodox leader who loved liberty and wanted to see Americans flourish. Will he now do his duty to America and the world? Or will he push the country and its imperial subjects — no longer free citizens — into an unfreedom that will aggrieve and impoverish us well into our grandchildren’s lives. The choice is his. He has his freedom, now let him use it.
Mikie Sherrill used her inaugural address to sign two executive orders on energy.
Mikie Sherill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, was best known during her tenure in the House of Representatives as a prominent Democratic voice on national security issues. But by the time she ran for governor of New Jersey, utility bills were spiking up to 20% in the state, putting energy at the top of her campaign agenda. Sherrill’s oft-repeated promise to freeze electricity rates took what could have been a vulnerability and turned it into an electoral advantage.
“I hope, New Jersey, you'll remember me when you open up your electric bill and it hasn't gone up by 20%,” Sherrill said Tuesday in her inauguration address.
Before she even finished her speech, Sherrill signed a series of executive orders aimed at constraining utility costs and expanding energy production in the state. One was her promised emergency declaration giving utility regulators the authority to freeze rate hikes. Another was aimed at fostering new generation, ordering the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities “to open solicitations for new solar and storage power generation, to modernize gas and nuclear generation so we can lower utility costs over the long term.”
Now all that’s left is the follow-through. But with strict deadlines to claim tax credits for renewable energy development looming, that will be trickier than it sounds.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act from last summer put strict deadlines on when wind and solar projects must start construction (July 2026), or else be placed in service (the end of 2027) in order to qualify for the remaining federal clean energy tax credits.
Sherrill’s belt-and-suspenders approach of freezing rates and boosting supply was one she previewed during the campaign, during which she made a point of talking not just about solar and battery storage, but also about nuclear power.
The utility rate freeze has a few moving parts, including direct payments to offset bill hikes that are due to hit this summer and giving New Jersey regulators the authority “to pause or modify utility actions that could further increase bills.” The order also instructs regulators to “review utility business models to ensure alignment with delivering cost reductions to ratepayers,” which could mean utilities wind up extracting less return from ratepayers on capital investments in the grid.
The second executive order declares a second state of emergency and “expands multiple, expedited state programs to develop massive amounts of new power generation in New Jersey,” the governor’s office said. It also instructs the state to “identify permit reforms” to more quickly bring new projects online, requests that regulators instruct utilities to more accurately report energy usage from potential data center projects, and sets up a “Nuclear Power Task Force to position the state to lead on building new nuclear power generation.”
This combination of direct intervention to contain costs with new investments in supply, tough language aimed at utilities and PJM, the electricity market New Jersey is in, along with some potential deregulation to help bring new generation online more quickly, is essentially throwing every broadly left-of-center idea around energy at the wall and seeing what sticks.
Not surprisingly, the orders won immediate plaudits from green groups, with Justin Balik, the vice president of action for Evergreen States, saying in a statement, “It is refreshing to see a governor not only correctly diagnose what’s wrong with our energy system, but also demonstrate the clear political will to fix it.”