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This is what we’re tracking in energy and climate over the next four months — and beyond.

This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
We’re in the last third of 2026. In yesterday’s newsletter, I looked at the biggest planned upcoming events in climate and energy policy that we’re tracking at Heatmap for the rest of this year.
Today, I want to look at some of the biggest questions that I’m pondering for the rest of the year.
What will the AI backlash mean for data centers and energy demand?
In just the past 24 hours, existential concerns about artificial intelligence has gone mainstream. Even though AI engineers have warned that the technology could trigger some kind of mass fatality event — or even human extinction — for years, the resignation of Sam Coxon from Anthropic seems to have broken through into a new tier of public awareness. “We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade,” Evan Hubinger, an Anthropic employee, posted on X after Coxon’s resignation broke.
It’s unscientific, but I’ve seen more celebrity Instagram posts, vertical videos, and concerned messages from friends about AI doom in the past day than I have in weeks. Senator Bernie Sanders is now holding a bipartisan meeting next week to discuss the “extraordinary dangers” posed by AI, according to Axios.
We already know that the public detests AI data centers. But so far the data center story has been somewhat severable from the AI story — voters, politicians, and journalists could talk about the AI infrastructure buildout separately from the tales of, say, AI allegedly solving century-old math problems. Will that remain the case? Or will the two stories merge? If that happens, will politicians and AI safety experts start to encourage (or even empower) the data center backlash because it might slow down AI’s overall development? What will that mean for the politics of infrastructure, electrification, and load growth — and will it cut greenhouse gas emissions?
What will happen in Iran, how high can oil go, and what will it mean for the energy system?
President Donald Trump has never been “looking for long term” in Iran, yet his war continues to drag on without an obvious or easy resolution. It has dragged energy prices up with it.
The global crude benchmark has now edged above $100. Gasoline costs more than $4.20 a gallon on average in the United States (and far more in Europe), and diesel is even more expensive. According to an ongoing estimate from Brown University researchers, the war has now cost Americans more than $100 billion due to energy inflation since it began. Hostilities have seemed to intensify in the past few days; Iran fired missiles at U.S. Navy ships and the United States responded by destroying oil tankers.
This has been generally bad for European economies, which are to some degree still recovering from the triple shock of Covid, energy inflation from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s ongoing export boom. At the same time, the Iran war has broadly vindicated China’s energy strategy, which has used electrified technology, strategic stockpiling, and a coal, solar, and battery-dependent power grid to reduce economic dependence on seaborne liquid fuels. (China’s greenhouse gas emissions actually fell in the second quarter because of a drop in the country’s oil consumption.)
The most urgent question here, of course, is whether President Trump will find a way to end the war that he began earlier this year — and how expensive oil and liquified natural gas will get in the interim.
But an end to the war will trigger another set of questions about what this energy shock will mean for energy, climate, and industrial policy going forward. Shocks like these tend to dominate national strategy for years or decades after they happen; Thailand’s government announced last month that it’s backing off LNG imports in favor of renewables. Will we start to see a wider set of countries do the same? Will more countries build strategic oil stockpiles, driving up oil demand in the short term? And will more middle- and low-income countries embrace Chinese-made electric cars in the name of boosting energy security and cutting their oil dependence?
Will the U.S. get bipartisan permitting reform?
The most important political question this year — if you are a normal person — is whether Democrats will take over the House of Representatives and even the Senate in the upcoming midterm election. But we aren’t normal people here at Heatmap. And the midterm elections will, for us, only commence the year’s most interesting political moment.
Right now, lawmakers from both parties say they are trying to reach a deal on bipartisan permitting reform. Such a bill would make it easier to build transmission lines, renewable energy, and some fossil fuel infrastructure, as well as presumably restraining the president’s extralegal war on solar and wind. It could even make it easier for the government to build public infrastructure of all sorts.
We haven’t seen the text of such a deal yet — although my Shift Key interview with Daniel Palken, a permitting expert at Arnold Ventures, offers a lot of clues to its potential content. So it remains an open question whether lawmakers can reach a deal in November and shepherd it through a lame-duck Congress before the end of the year.
If they can, it could enable a future president to conduct a faster and more aggressive clean energy or infrastructure buildout than was previously imaginable. If they can’t, then it will be hard to imagine when such a deal might ever come together, as it has failed to congeal under almost every partisan combination of a president and Congress.
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Back in the spring, climate scientists assigned low odds to the probability that 2026 would become the hottest year ever measured. Since then, though, a monstrous El Niño has clawed out of the Pacific Ocean, nudging up global temperatures and contributing to America’s record-breaking summer.
2026 now has a greater than 33% chance of eclipsing 2024’s hottest-year-on-record title, according to a late July estimate from Carbon Brief; the odds have probably risen further since then. Either way, 2026 will probably come in about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average — and 2027 is very likely to be even hotter.
Are we entering a post-Trump, post-2010s energy and climate era — and what will it look like?
President Donald Trump is about as unpopular as he has ever been, and on a range of issues, he seems to be losing touch with the American public. Simply by dint of being the country’s most prominent political figure for most of the past 10 years, he has become an establishment politician. He now champions AI, data centers, and the Iran War, for instance, while Americans seem skeptical of all three (at best).
In the next several months, these trends are all likely to intensify: Trump is likely to lose control of Congress — at least according to the polls and the betting markets — and a new presidential election will begin, one in which he will probably not be running.
Which isn’t to say that Trump will lose his grip on the Republican Party or its voters — nor that his actions in the coming years will be lawful, or even Constitutional. But nevertheless if you squint, you can begin to imagine what a post-Trump political era might look like, and it is quite different from the epoch that we have just lived through. It is an era where voters will likely be more worried about inflation and the cost of living than unemployment and economic growth. It is an era where Democrats will be looking to play up economic populism and where the federal deficit might matter again. It is an era where Millennials will be in their prime earning years, where politicians will fear a backlash to industrial policy and infrastructure buildout, and where America’s role in the world will remain unsettled.
It is, in short, not at all like the era that gave us the Green New Deal or the other energy and climate policy of the early 2020s; even if a recession hits and employment becomes a major concern once again, then the resulting political environment might look more like 1992 (or even 1937) than 2008. We are, in short, entering a new era — one we’re excited to watch, develop, and cover here at Heatmap.
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The former vice president of the United States joined us at Heatmap House for New York Climate Week.
Former Vice President Al Gore needs no introduction. He is, in a way, the original climate influencer. His film An Inconvenient Truth gave rise to a new wave of climate activism in the 2000s. It was one of the highest-grossing documentaries of all time upon its release, and it won an Oscar, a Grammy, and — for Vice President Gore — a Nobel Peace Prize.
He’s remained active in climate policy since then and leads the Climate Reality Project. He is also an investor and was a longtime director at Apple.
For this episode of Shift Key, Vice President Gore joined Rob for a live conversation at our Heatmap House event, part of New York Climate Week. He reflected on the 20th anniversary of An Inconvenient Truth, the existential risk of artificial intelligence, and what has surprised him most about the evolution of climate politics.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Let’s start by talking about 20 years ago, because 20 years ago, An Inconvenient Truth came out. I recently had cause to revisit the film, and I actually have to confess something. I was very excited when the movie came out, but I don’t think I’ve ever admitted this, and maybe this is the wrong audience to do it to: I was too stressed about climate change to actually watch it. Not that it was a daily anxiety, but I was like, “I can’t. There’s so many other things.” And so I actually watched it for the first time only recently.
I had the book, let’s be clear. I had the book.
Al Gore: A limited confession.
Meyer: Yeah, yeah. It was so fascinating watching it 20 years on, because there are some sections of it that I think you could give today. Not that little has changed — the science hasn’t, of course — but the way people think about it, the way people move from denial to doom, hasn’t changed in some ways. I wondered what surprised you most about the intervening 20 years since the film came out. It received a response that, I don’t know what you were anticipating, but it was certainly on a scale beyond what was expected at the time. And then there’s where we are today.
Gore: Well, when Laurie David first made the suggestion, here in this city, I gave an early version of my slideshow when we were promoting that movie. What was it, The Day After —
Meyer: The Day After Tomorrow?
Gore: The Day After Tomorrow. Was that it? Yeah. And they said, “Well, that’s fiction, isn’t it?” And I said, “Well, it’s not as fictional as the then-current administration was about climate.” But when she said, “This needs to be made into a movie,” I said, “You’re crazy.” As one of the early reviewers said, “Al Gore giving a slideshow — what part of that doesn’t scream hit?” So I was a skeptic about the enterprise, and I was surprised at the reception it got.
Really, the credit belongs to the scientists I was just channeling. The fact that everything they predicted has proven to be basically spot on is a credit to them. For the rest of us, the fact that they were so right then should cause us to pay more attention to what they’re warning us about now.
As for what has surprised me, it’s the ferocity and durability and massive continued financing of climate denial by the fossil fuel industry. There was a time during these last 20 years when they said they were going to be part of the solution, and a couple of them made some good-faith efforts in that direction. But then, like Steve Martin on the old SNL, they went, “Nah.” They decided just to give up the ghost and go full speed ahead on more and more fossil fuels. I think they’re losing as we are winning, but they’re hanging in there.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
Previously on Shift Key: Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Trump’s Pro-Nuclear, Pro-Fossil Fuel Agenda
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
RE+ 26 is the largest clean energy event in North America, happening November 16th through 19th at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Register at re-plus.com and use code SHIFTKEY20 to save 20% off a Full Conference pass.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
This transcript has been automatically generated.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Robinson Meyer:
It’s Wednesday, September 30th, and this is a special New York Climate Week edition of Shift Key. Last week, Heatmap welcomed climate and energy leaders, experts, and influencers to Heatmap House, our all-day summit in New York City. Among those leaders was former Vice President Al Gore. Vice President Gore needs no introduction. He is, in a way, the original climate influencer. His film, An Inconvenient Truth, gave rise to a new wave of climate activism in the 2000s. It was one of the highest-grossing documentaries of all time when it was released, and it won an Oscar, a Grammy, and, for Vice President Gore, a Nobel Peace Prize. Of course, Gore has remained active in climate policy since then. At the time of our conversation, he’d just returned from Asia, where he was training a new cohort of leaders for his Climate Reality Project. Our conversation came on the 20th anniversary of An Inconvenient Truth. We discussed that film’s legacy, what’s changed since its release, what surprised the vice president the most, and his perhaps surprising thoughts on artificial intelligence. Let’s go to the show. I’m Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News. This conversation was recorded in front of a live audience at Heatmap House at 22 Vanderbilt in New York City on September 23rd. It’s all coming up on Shift Key.
Robinson Meyer:
Vice President Gore!
Al Gore:
Robinson Meyer!
Robinson Meyer:
It’s so good to have you here. Thank you for joining us.
Al Gore:
Great to be here. Thank you for doing the interview.
Robinson Meyer:
Of course. We wanted to have you at Heatmap House for a long time. I know I said this backstage, but thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate your time.
Al Gore:
Thank you for what you and your colleagues are doing at Heatmap. It’s just an amazing organization.
Robinson Meyer:
So I wanted to start — I have questions, and we will get to them — but I wanted to start by asking how you’re feeling today. It is September 23rd, 2026. It’s been quite a few years. How are you feeling about the climate challenge, about American politics? What’s going on in your heart at the moment?
Al Gore:
Well, those two things are related, of course. But I’m temperamentally optimistic, and I’m specifically optimistic that we are going to solve the climate crisis. We are going to win this. The remaining question is whether we will win it in time to avoid crossing some of these very dangerous negative tipping points: the Gulf Stream, the Amazon flipping into savanna, the ice melt to pace. Greenland is losing 30 million tons of ice every hour right now. But I have an image that, to me, conveys what’s going on in the big picture. I see a very big wheel turning powerfully in the right direction, and inside it, little wheels turning in the opposite direction, but the overall momentum is extremely powerful. I would even say, Robinson, that there is a possibility that we will, in the future, look back on this year of 2026 as the positive tipping point on climate. I say that for a number of reasons. This is the first year that the production of energy from renewable sources has exceeded the overall increase in global energy demand. Some tipping points are rounded at the top; this may be a plateau. But if you look back 20 years, there were virtually no electric vehicles at all, maybe a couple of thousand sold. In 2010, 7,000 EVs were sold worldwide. This year, by the end of the year, 30% of all new cars sold globally will be EVs. Already last month, it was 65% in China, on the way to 82% in the next three or four years. If you look at electric power generation, last year, as you know very well, 86% of all the new capacity installed worldwide was renewable. And here in the U.S., in spite of Donald Trump, it was 92%. 91% — you add rooftop solar, 93% was renewable. If you look at investment, I’ve been saying there’s twice as much investment in renewables as in fossil fuels. Fatih Birol at the IEA is saying it’s almost three times as much now. Twenty years ago, 77% of all electricity was fossil. Now it’s down to a quarter.
Robinson Meyer:
Yeah.
Al Gore:
And there are other similar statistics. I think this movement, which has become the largest grassroots movement in the history of the world, is unstoppable. But it’s the pace, and it’s the fierce resistance, organized and massively funded by the fossil fuel industry, which makes the East India Company look like a popcorn salesman. They’ve achieved hegemonic control of all the policy verticals that affect their attenuating business plan. But we are winning. We need to win faster.
Robinson Meyer:
Let’s start by talking about 20 years ago, because 20 years ago, An Inconvenient Truth came out. I recently had cause to revisit the film, and I actually have to confess something. I was very excited when the movie came out, but I don’t think I’ve ever admitted this, and maybe this is the wrong audience to do it to: I was too stressed about climate change to actually watch it. Not that it was a daily anxiety, but I was like, “I can’t. There’s so many other things.” And so I actually watched it for the first time only recently. I had the book, let’s be clear. I had the book.
Al Gore:
A limited confession.
Robinson Meyer:
Yeah, yeah. It was so fascinating watching it 20 years on, because there are some sections of it that I think you could give today. Not that little has changed — the science hasn’t, of course — but the way people think about it, the way people move from denial to doom, hasn’t changed in some ways. I wondered what surprised you most about the intervening 20 years since the film came out. It received a response that, I don’t know what you were anticipating, but it was certainly on a scale beyond what was expected at the time. And then there’s where we are today.
Al Gore:
Well, when Laurie David first made the suggestion, here in this city, I gave an early version of my slideshow when we were promoting that movie. What was it, The Day After —
Robinson Meyer:
The Day After Tomorrow?
Al Gore:
The Day After Tomorrow. Was that it? Yeah. And they said, “Well, that’s fiction, isn’t it?” And I said, “Well, it’s not as fictional as the then-current administration was about climate.” But when she said, “This needs to be made into a movie,” I said, “You’re crazy.” As one of the early previewers said, “Al Gore giving a slideshow — what part of that doesn’t scream hit?” So I was a skeptic about the enterprise, and I was surprised at the reception it got. Really, the credit belongs to the scientists I was just channeling. The fact that everything they predicted has proven to be basically spot on is a credit to them. For the rest of us, the fact that they were so right then should cause us to pay more attention to what they’re warning us about now. As for what has surprised me, it’s the ferocity and durability and massive continued financing of climate denial by the fossil fuel industry. There was a time during these last 20 years when they said they were going to be part of the solution, and a couple of them made some good-faith efforts in that direction. But then, like Steve Martin on the old SNL, they went, “Nah.” They decided just to give up the ghost and go full speed ahead on more and more fossil fuels. I think they’re losing as we are winning, but they’re hanging in there.
Robinson Meyer:
Why do you think they — ? Since 2006, we’ve seen almost two cycles of climate policymaking in the U.S. There was the first Obama administration, when we didn’t get cap and trade, but the EPA regulations eventually came out, the car structure —
Al Gore:
And the Paris Agreement.
Robinson Meyer:
And the Paris Agreement, of course. And then the first Trump administration, and then the IRA, which I want to talk about in a second. But during that time, fossil fuel companies did make this move, as you said, toward at least appearing to be part of the solution, and then they backed off. What do you think caused them to back off? Was it a lack of subject-area expertise? Was it that, at the time, the technologies weren’t as profitable as their fuels, and they needed to fit into an investment mix in which they are always supplying this kind of outsized fossil fuel profitability?
Al Gore:
Well, I think it’s been, in some ways, the tyranny of short-term profits taking over their business model. And in order to solve the climate crisis, we’re going to have to pay attention to the democracy crisis. The compound ideology of democratic capitalism has served us well in many respects, but when the Berlin Wall came down and communism collapsed, there was a surge of triumphalism in the capitalist part of that sphere. Something similar happened when the fossil fuel companies faced pressure. You could earn a little bit more in the short term if you just went faster on fossil fuels. But something interesting has happened this year, and this is another reason why I think there’s a real possibility of a positive tipping point. I hate to turn my back on you guys over here. The war in Iran marks the second time in four years that the fossil fuel supply chain has been disrupted, and price volatility has returned. People around the world have reacted to this in a really dramatic way. In the last six months, 50 countries have doubled their share of EVs in their fleet. We saw the president of Korea say, and I’m paraphrasing, “This shows us we have got to speed up this transition away from fossil fuels.” Thailand just announced a big shift from LNG to solar. In Africa, where they were really not participating in the solar revolution a few years ago, they’re now installing 100,000 panels per day. These are signs that this thing is really moving into high gear.
Robinson Meyer:
I think it’s undercut the idea that fossil fuels, especially for countries without fossil fuel resources domestically, are a long-term, secure investment in your energy security. They’re not.
Al Gore:
Yeah. Look at their three —
Robinson Meyer:
Or at least oil and gas. I think coal is going to be a whole other problem.
Al Gore:
Yeah. Twenty years ago, the U.S. got 49% of its electricity from coal. Today, that’s down to 16%. Mike Bloomberg and the Sierra Club deserve a lot of the credit for that. But when I say the fossil fuel industry is losing, they know they’re losing, and they’re trying to slow down how quickly they lose. If you look at their three biggest markets, power generation is number one, and as I’ve already said, with 86% of all the new build last year being renewables, they’re losing that. Transportation is their second biggest source. The internal combustion engine peaked nine years ago, and since 2017, sales have gone down 25%, while EV sales have gone up 1,500%. Their third market is petrochemicals, which is now actually driving the oil part of the market, because 75% of petrochemicals is plastics. They’re projecting a tripling of plastics production by 2035. How’s that going to work for the rest of us, when microplastics are already in our bodies? In the oceans, the rivers, the roadsides. That’s why the fossil fuel companies have been so energetic in tearing apart the UN negotiations on a plastics treaty, and why they’ve blown up the shipping treaty negotiations. Forty percent of all shipping in the entire world, by mass, is lugging fossil fuels around. They see these trends, and they’re desperately telling their bigger, long-term investors, “Stay with us. Please stay with us.” They’re screaming about capital availability. I think they’re really desperate, and that’s why they’ve pulled out all the stops.
Robinson Meyer:
The destruction of the shipping treaty was interesting, because it was not merely anonymous fossil fuel actors. It was the Trump administration coming in and specifically blowing up those negotiations.
Al Gore:
Well, he told them during the campaign, very famously. One of his jujitsu superpowers is saying the corrupt part out loud, so people think, “Well, he said it publicly. It couldn’t be corrupt.” He’s by far the most corrupt president in all of history. And he said to the fossil fuel executives at Mar-a-Lago, you know the video, “Give me a billion dollars, and I’ll do whatever you want.” That transaction was made, and he’s following through on it.
Robinson Meyer:
What do you make of the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act? For those of us who were involved in climate, especially in the late 2010s, there was a feeling that climate should be a bigger part of politics and a bigger part of the Democratic Party’s policymaking agenda. And then a Democratic president did that. President Biden’s reconciliation bill was the IRA. I can’t say the electorate responded in an overwhelmingly positive way, and then, of course, the Trump administration has repealed aspects of the bill. So what did you make of this broader saga, where climate finally became a topic of legislating in the United States, and yet it seemed like voters maybe couldn’t care?
Al Gore:
Well, I think they did care. I think they didn’t see the implementation of that act in time to make any difference in their lives. And I think the whole movement that went by the label “abundance” came in part from frustration about all of the obstacles and difficulties that the administration encountered when they tried to implement it. Maybe there were some design flaws, but I’m not going to criticize that. I think they did the best they could. If you look at the charging stations for electric vehicles, for example, it was such a disappointment that hardly any of them got built. Now it’s coming on very strong. But I think the delays in implementation were a big part of that. They tried to portray it skillfully. After all, it wasn’t called the Climate Act; it was called the Inflation Reduction Act. But the people never saw on the ground the benefits to them personally. One other thing, if I could. Decades ago, I learned a lesson from my father, who was in the United States Senate. This is sort of elementary stuff these days, but he said, “Son, when there is a piece of legislation that benefits the broad public interest, the broad public is often barely aware of it. But if it has a negative impact on a small group, they are intensely interested and obsessed with it, and they work really hard to get rid of it.” When the IRA was passed, the fossil fuel industry went to work to try to block its implementation. And by the way, some of the provisions that have been blocked are being unblocked by the courts. That is also a process that takes time. And to all the lawyers for environmental groups, some of them here: thank you for what you’re doing.
Robinson Meyer:
I want to hit two more things quickly. Is this an issue that you think ordinary voters will come around on, that the mass of the electorate will see the light on? Or is climate change going to be one of these issues that a small group of dedicated activists, officials, and experts work on for a long time, making progress in the background, until eventually we’re in a much better place than we are now?
Al Gore:
No, I think it’s the former rather than the latter. I see this climate struggle in the context of the other morally based challenges that humanity has confronted in the past. You look back at the abolition movement, the movement to give equal rights to women, the struggle for civil rights, especially in the South, the struggle to give gays and lesbians equal dignity, the struggle against apartheid in South Africa. Nelson Mandela, after 27 years in prison, said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.” What all of those movements had in common, first of all, is that there were times when the advocates felt deep despair, but they kept on going. The other thing they had in common is that when the underbrush of argumentation and false cases was cleared away, when the central issue was finally revealed as a clear choice between right and wrong, then — because of who we are, I would say because of the way God made us — the outcome became foreordained. When we have a clear choice between right and wrong that affects everyone, we do respond. We’re hardwired by evolution to respond instinctively to the kinds of threats that our ancient ancestors encountered and survived. If a snake came across this floor here, we would clear out without a second’s delay. A much bigger threat that has to be perceived through the use of our reasoning capacity — we are capable of that as well, but it’s not instinctual. It requires reflection, it requires communication, and it requires collective action. We are capable of that. That is why we’re going to win. That is now occurring, and Mother Nature is the most powerful advocate, changing opinions and firming up the conviction that we have to do something about this. One final point on this, if I could. These kinds of movements build slowly, but then they begin to capture everybody. And I think we’re seeing a big acceleration of progress right now.
Robinson Meyer:
What do you make of the current set of fears about artificial intelligence? To some degree, it resembles the existential fears that people have had about climate change for a long time. I think there are also separate fears that it could be slowing down decarbonization. What do you make of this new set of concerns around AI? Are you worried about the existential risk from AI? Do you think it’s going to be good for the climate eventually?
Al Gore:
When I was young, I remember when the first Godzilla movie came out. After a few sequels, the producers discovered that maybe there were some other prehistoric creatures that were also awakened by the nuclear testing. And then we got movies called Godzilla vs. Mothra and Godzilla vs. Rodan. I think the climate crisis versus artificial intelligence is a little bit in that category. If you look at the list of concerns about data centers and artificial intelligence more broadly, the emissions are a problem of concern but not a justification for panic. You could take all of the AI data centers in the world and quadruple the number, and their total emissions would still be a fraction of the emissions from uncovered landfills around the world. That is a point of leverage for activists concerned about AI, but it’s not the biggest concern. I think that cognitive atrophy, and the emergence of an intelligence that makes us no longer the apex intelligence on the planet, is a cause for very, very deep concern. They have something else in common. Donald Trump has called both of the concerns hoaxes, which is a clear sign we need to be concerned about them. When he says the climate crisis is a hoax, it’s sort of like his AI slop. You immediately know that it’s nonsense and false, but it has an impact nonetheless. And we’ve already had an experience with AI in its first generation, in the form of the algorithms that direct attention flows on the internet. Look at what that’s done. My goodness. It’s just crazy. A lot of guys now have to swipe left 1,000 times to get one cup of coffee with a girl. Body image problems with young girls. And the rabbit holes that suck people down. You know what’s at the bottom of the rabbit hole? That’s where the echo chamber is. And when you spend too long in the echo chamber, you face another kind of AI: artificial insanity. That’s where QAnon comes from, and that is what sustains climate denial, again funded lavishly by the fossil fuel interests. On any story about climate, you click on the comment section and it’s always — you know this — stuffed with anti-climate memes and falsehoods, or zombie falsehoods. Orwell said in one of his essays that we as human beings are capable of holding onto a false belief indefinitely, even when it is completely proven to be false to any reasonable person. And then as he continued impudently twisting words to make it seem we were right all along, he said, “The only problem is that eventually a false belief collides with a solid reality, comma, usually on a battlefield.” So we are now on a battlefield, in Iran and in the Persian Gulf and at the mouth of the Red Sea. Again, this has further awakened the concern that yes, we have to address this. On the emissions side of artificial intelligence, just briefly: Nick Stern at the London School of Economics and the Grantham Institute published a very influential study a few months ago showing that the emissions reductions from AI are going to be quite substantial. Unfortunately, it’s also going to supercharge the discovery of more fossil fuel assets, and that will offset it to some extent. But I think it can bring some net benefits in that regard. But we need to watch for cognitive atrophy. Fifteen-year-olds are reading at 14-year-old levels now. Kids are doing their homework faster but doing worse on testing. There’s cognitive atrophy, cognitive surrender, cognitive offload, and cognitive foreclosure. Kids at the age when they’re learning the reasoning skills that all of us learned when we were younger — if they don’t learn those in the same way, that’s one of many serious challenges from the advanced pioneer models. And of course, now that they’re breaking out of their confinement, it reminds me of Jurassic Park, where the velociraptors are testing the electric fences, you know?
Robinson Meyer:
I like this mode of existential risk as Godzilla and Mothra and Nadir. I think this is a good way to think about it. We need to get you on Shift Key, Heatmap’s podcast. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to leave it there, but thank you so much for joining us.
Al Gore:
Thank you, Robinson. Thank you all very much.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway, seem to be returning to normal.
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For the first decade of my professional career, the U.S. economy was defined largely by its deficiencies. Employment lagged for years after the Great Recession, especially for non-college-educated men in their prime earning years. Money was free or cheap to borrow. Even after the housing market had recovered, economic activity remained moribund.
Americans hated it, and politicians proposed various schemes to backfill the gap. One of these ideas was the Green New Deal — a once-in-a-generation investment in clean energy and low-carbon infrastructure that would put Americans back to work and deploy the economy’s spare capacity for the public good.
How things have changed: The main story of the American economy today is one of constraints. On Tuesday, yields on 30-year Treasury bonds reached their highest level since 2002, meaning the federal government’s long-term borrowing costs are higher than they’ve been at any point since I was in elementary school. Electricity demand is surging, and global stockpiles of gasoline, diesel fuel, and crude oil are in short supply. No wonder, then, that many of the inputs to the energy system — such as transformers or natural gas turbines — remain expensive or in short supply. Or that the inflation rate remains stuck higher than 3%.
What’s funny is that Americans still hate it. Consumer confidence fell last month to its lowest level since 2014, according to new Conference Board data released on Tuesday. You can chock that up to oil prices, which have climbed since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in March. But there’s a deeper mystery going on, too — the economy is picking up, hiring is increasing, and the U.S. is experiencing a physical investment boom of a scale not seen in decades.
It’s not what I would have predicted back in the 2010s. Talking to a fellow policy nerd at a Climate Week event in New York on Thursday, we joked that we all owe an apology to Boomer politicians, who had once seemed inordinately obsessed with the 1970s. It turns out that Americans really do despise inflation above all else, even when it accompanies robust economic growth.
On that front, there are two interesting developments. The first is that America is seemingly succeeding in its battle to wrench the Strait of Hormuz back open in its ongoing war with Iran.
In recent days, more than 10 million barrels of oil have exited the Strait of Hormuz on tankers accompanied by U.S. Navy ships, according to the ship tracking data provider Kpler. Another 6 million barrels have left through other routes. Last year, about 20 million barrels of crude oil were shipped through the strait each day, according to the International Energy Agency.
That could eventually help lower some fossil fuel costs — at enormous cost, of course, to the American public — but it will not happen quickly. Global refinery capacity remains constrained, and future diesel prices are much higher now than they were when the war began. This means diesel prices could likely stay stubbornly high for some time, helping China’s effort to electrify its heavy-duty truck fleet and even providing some tailwind for Tesla’s new Semi truck, if it ever gets released.
The second development is that the Senate seems to be moving ahead with permitting reform. The bipartisan team that has been negotiating the deal announced a deal late on Monday (as my colleague Alexander Kaufman detailed in Heatmap AM), and the lawmakers will hold a press conference on Wednesday where they’ll release bill text. Senate leadership seems to be eyeing a vote on the legislation after the midterm election. That bill — if the deal is a good one — could theoretically help grow the power grid, loosen some of the constraints on the clean energy economy, and make it easier to build new kinds of public infrastructure.
But we’ll know more when we see it — and we’ll see it soon. We’ll be covering the deal on Wednesday and, I’m sure, for many weeks to come.