You’re out of free articles.
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
Sign In or Create an Account.
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Welcome to Heatmap
Thank you for registering with Heatmap. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our lives, a force reshaping our economy, our politics, and our culture. We hope to be your trusted, friendly, and insightful guide to that transformation. Please enjoy your free articles. You can check your profile here .
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Subscribe to get unlimited Access
Hey, you are out of free articles but you are only a few clicks away from full access. Subscribe below and take advantage of our introductory offer.
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Create Your Account
Please Enter Your Password
Forgot your password?
Please enter the email address you use for your account so we can send you a link to reset your password:
A little insulation goes a long way toward decarbonizing.
When you think about ways to decarbonize, your mind will likely go straight to shiny new machines — an electric vehicle, solar panels, or an induction stove, perhaps. But let’s not forget the low-tech, low-hanging fruit: your home itself.
Adding insulation, fixing any gaps, cracks or leaks where air can get out, and perhaps installing energy efficient windows and doors are the necessary first steps to decarbonizing at home — though you may also want to consider a light-colored “cool roof,” which reflects sunlight to keep the home comfortable, and electric panel and wiring upgrades to support broader electrification efforts.
Getting started on one or multiple of these retrofits can be daunting — there’s lingo to be learned, audits to be performed, and various incentives to navigate. Luckily, Heatmap is here to help.
Cora Wyent is the Director of Research at Rewiring America, where she conducts research and analysis on how to rapidly electrify the entire economy.
Joseph Lstiburek is the founding principal at the Building Science Corporation, a consulting firm focused on designing and constructing energy efficient, durable, and economic buildings.
Lucy de Barbaro is the founder and director of Energy Efficiency Empowerment, a Pittsburgh-based organization that seeks to transform the home renovation process and help low and middle-income homeowners make energy efficiency improvements.
Definitively, yes! When people hear the word “insulation” they often think of how it can protect them from the cold. And while it certainly does do that, insulation’s overall role is to slow the transfer of heat both out of your home when it’s chilly and into your home when it’s hot. That means you won’t need to use your air conditioning as much during those scorching summer days or your furnace as much when the temperatures drop.
Quite possibly! The most definitive way to know if your home could be improved by weatherization is by getting a home energy audit —- more on that below. While a specific level of insulation is required for all newly constructed homes, these codes and standards are updated frequently. So if you’re feeling uncomfortable in your living space, or if you think your heating and cooling bills are unusually high, it’s definitely worth seeing what an expert thinks. And if you’re interested in getting electric appliances like a heat pump or induction stove, some wiring upgrades will almost certainly be necessary.
Energy efficient appliances like electric heat pumps or induction stoves are fantastic ways to decarbonize your life, but serve a fundamentally different purpose than most of the upgrades that we’re going to talk about here. When you get better air sealing, insulation, windows, or doors, what you’re doing is essentially regulating the temperature of your home, making you less reliant on energy intensive heating and cooling systems. And while this can certainly lead to savings on your energy bill and a positive impact on the environment at large, these upgrades will also allow you to simply live more comfortably.
This is the starting point for making informed decisions about any energy efficiency upgrades that you’re considering. During a home energy audit, a certified auditor (sometimes also referred to as an energy assessor or rater or verifier) will inspect your home to identify both the highest-impact and most cost-effective upgrades you can make, including how much you stand to save on your energy bills by doing so.
Wyent told me checking with your local utility is a good place to start, as many offer low-cost audits. Even if your utility doesn’t do energy assessments, they may be able to point you in the direction of local auditors or state-level resources and directories. The Residential Energy Services Network also provides a directory of certified assessors searchable by location, as does the Department of Energy’s Energy Score program, though neither list is comprehensive.
Audits typically cost between $200 and $700 depending on your home’s location, size, and type, as well as the scope of the audit. Homeowners can claim 30% of the cost of their audit on their federal taxes, up to $150. To be eligible, make sure you find a certified home energy auditor. The DOE provides a list of recognized certification programs.
Important: Make sure the auditor performs both a blower door test and a thermographic inspection. These diagnostic tools are key to determining where air leakage and heat loss/gain is occurring.
Your energy audit isn’t the only thing eligible for a credit. The 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit allows homeowners to claim up to 30% of the cost of a variety of home upgrades, up to a combined total of $1,200 per year. This covers upgrading your insulation, windows, doors, skylights, electrical wiring, and/or electrical panel. Getting an energy audit is also included in this category.
While $1,200 is the max amount you can claim for all retrofits combined, certain renovations come with their own specific limitations. Let’s break it down:
State and local incentives:
Depending on where you live, there may be additional state and local incentives, and we suggest asking your contractor what you are eligible for. But since incentive programs change frequently, it’s a good idea to do your own research too. Get acquainted with Energy Star, a joint program run by the Environmental Protection Agency and the DOE which provides information on energy efficient products, practices, and standards. On Energy Star’s website, you can search by zip code for utility rebates that can help you save on insulation, windows, and electrical work.
“Starting by looking at your local utility programs can be a great resource too, because utilities offer rebates or incentives for weatherizing your home or installing a new roof,” said Wyent.
Everyone wants to minimize the number of times they break open or drill into their walls. To that end, it’s useful to plan out all the upgrades you might want to get done over the next five to 10 years to figure out where efficiency might fit in.
Some primary examples: Installing appliances like a heat pump, induction stove, or Level 2 EV charger (all of which you can read more about in our other guides) often require electrical upgrades. Even if you don’t plan to get any of these new appliances now, pre-wiring your home to prepare for their installation (with the exception of a heat pump — see our heat pump guide for more info on that) will save you money later on.
De Barbaro also notes that if you’re planning to repaint your walls anytime soon, this would also be a convenient time to add insulation, as that involves drilling holes which then need to be patched and repainted anyway. Likewise, if you were already planning to replace your home’s siding, this would be a natural time to insulate. Finally, if you’re planning to get a heat pump in the coming years, getting better insulation now will ensure this system is maximally effective.
Conversely, if you’re cash-strapped, spreading out electrical and weatherization upgrades over the course of a few years allows you to claim the full $1,200 tax credit every year. Whether those tax savings are enough to cover the added contractor time and clean-up costs, though, will depend on the particulars of your situation.
“Come in with a plan and talk to the contractor about everything that you want to do in the future, not just immediately,” said Wyent.
Unlike solar installers, which are often associated with large regional and national companies, the world of weatherization and electrical upgrades is often much more localized, meaning you’ll need to do a bit of legwork to verify that the contractors and installers you come across are reliable.
Wyent told me she typically starts by asking friends, family, and neighbors for references, as well as turning to Google and Yelp reviews. Depending on where you live and what type of work you want done, your local utility may also offer incentives for weatherization and electrification upgrades, and can possibly provide a list of prescreened contractors who are licensed and insured for this type of work.
These questions will help you vet contractors and gain a better understanding of their process regardless of the type of renovation you’re pursuing.
Common wisdom says you should always get three quotes. But that doesn’t mean you should automatically choose the cheapest option. Lstiburek says the old adage applies: “If it sounds too good to be true, it's probably too good to be true.” Be sure that your contractors and installers are properly licensed and insured and read the fine print of your contract. Beyond this, how to find qualified professionals and what to ask largely depends on the type of upgrade you are pursuing. So let’s break it down, starting with the biggest bang for your buck.
Air sealing and insulating your home is usually the number one way to increase its energy efficiency. Energy Star says nine out of 10 homes are underinsulated, and many also have significant air leaks. In general, homes lose more heating and cooling energy through walls and attics than through windows and doors, so air sealing and adding insulation in key areas should be your first priority.
“People don't realize how collectively, small holes everywhere add up. So on average here in Pennsylvania, typically those holes would add up to the surface of three sheets of paper, continuously open to the outdoors,” said de Barbaro.
Determining where air is escaping is the purpose of the blower door test and the thermographic inspection, so after your energy audit you should have a good idea of where to begin with these retrofits. This guide from the Department of Energy is a great resource on all the places in a home one might consider insulating.
Choosing an insulation type:
Every home is different, and the type of insulation you choose will depend on a number of factors including where you’re insulating, whether that area is finished or unfinished, what R-Value is right for your climate, and your budget. You can check out this comprehensive list of different insulation types to learn about their respective advantages and use cases. But when it comes to attic rafters and exterior walls, De Barbaro said that one option rises above the rest.
“The magic word here is dense-packed cellulose insulation!” De Barbaro told me.
This type of insulation (which falls under the “loose fill and blown-in” category) is made from recycled paper products, meaning it has very low embodied carbon emissions. It’s also cheap and effective. For exterior walls and attic rafters, be sure to avoid loose-fill cellulose, as that can settle and become less effective over time — although for attic floors, loose-fill works well. Both are installed by drilling holes into the wall or floor space and blowing the insulation in under pressure.
We recommend discussing all of these options with your contractor, but here are the other materials you’re most likely to come across:
In addition to asking friends, family, and your local utility for contractor recommendations, Energy Star specifically recommends these additional resources where you can find licensed and insured contractors for insulation work.
While air sealing and insulation should definitely be number one on your weatherization checklist, plenty of heat gets lost through windows, doors, and skylights, as well. Single pane glass is a particularly poor insulator, and while fewer houses these days have it, upgrading to double or triple pane windows or skylights can be a big energy saver. Likewise, steel or fiberglass doors are much better insulators than traditional wooden doors.
But be warned: These can be pricey upgrades. The cost of installing windows alone ranges from hundreds of dollars up to $1,500 per window, and many homes have ten or more. It’s unlikely you’ll fully recoup the outlay through your energy savings, so before going about these retrofits, be sure that you’ve taken care of the easy stuff first.
Once you’ve done your research, it’s time to schedule a consultation with an installer, who can help you refine your project needs, discuss design and installation options, and provide you with a quote.
“So if you pick a Marvin window, make sure that you have a Marvin certified installer in your location, installing the Marvin window according to the Marvin instructions.” said Lstiburek.
Insulating your attic floor or your roof rafters is the best way to ensure that your home is sealed off from the elements. But if you live in a hot climate and need a new roof anyway (most last 25 to 50 years), then you might consider getting a cool roof, which can be made from a variety of materials and installed on almost any slope. However, they won’t lead to energy efficiencies in all geographies, so be sure to do your research beforehand!
Last but certainly not least is a retrofit that’s a little different from the rest. Unlike getting insulation, new windows, or a new roof, upgrading your wiring or electric panel doesn’t lead to greater energy efficiency by regulating the temperature of your home. What it does instead is enable greater energy efficiency by making it possible to operate an increasing number of electrified appliances and devices in your house.
For example, getting an electric or induction stove or dryer, a standard heat pump, a heat pump water heater, or an electric vehicle charger will require that you add new electric circuits to support these devices. And as these new loads add up, you may need to install a larger electric panel to support it all.
After sourcing electrician recommendations from family and friends, a good place to turn is Rewiring America’s contractor directory network. (Rewiring America is also a sponsor of Decarbonize Your Life.)Networks in your area can then provide you with a list of qualified electricians.
“Most people are really only using somewhere around 40% of what their current panels space. So you can actually add a fair amount of new circuits to your existing panel and upgrade your wiring while not having to upgrade your panel at all,” Wyent said.
Once you have three quotes in hand, all that’s left to do is evaluate your options, choose a contractor or installer, and sign a contract. Cost will likely be a major factor in the decision, but you’ll also want to ensure that the cheapest quote doesn’t mean corners will be cut. Here’s what to look out for.
Pay close attention to warranties. This applies both to the warranty for the work being performed and to the warranties for the products themselves. If an installation job or a product is well priced but comes with a short warranty, this should give you pause.
Avoid “same day signing specials.” If you’re being rushed into signing a contract, this is also a bad sign. Be sure to read the fine print — most cost estimates should be good for a few weeks at minimum.
Get specific. Your quotes should specify the type of work being performed, the scope of the work, cost (broken down by materials, labor, permits, and other expenses), payment method, and a tentative timeline for completion. A quote is much less formal than a contract, so if some of this information isn’t provided up front, don’t hesitate to ask for clarification so that you can make apples-to-apples comparisons between different contractors.
When you get a contract in hand, double check that:
Then it’s time to sign, sit back, and enjoy the soothing sounds of hammering, drilling, insulation blowing, and wire tinkering, content in knowing that you’re decarbonizing your home down to its very bones!
Now that you’re living comfortably in a maximally energy efficient home, you’re probably wondering when you’ll start seeing all those incentives you researched pay off. First off, know that you must wait until all renovations are complete and paid for to claim your federal tax credit. That means that even if you purchased new windows this year, if you have them installed in 2025, you’ll file for a tax credit with your 2025 return. Here’s how to go about it.
For state and local incentives, check the website for your local utility as well your local and state government and energy office to see what documentation is required. When in doubt, keep all of your records and receipts!
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
Between the budget reconciliation process and an impending vote to end California’s electric vehicle standards, a lot of the EV maker’s revenue stands to go poof.
It’s shaping up to be a very bad week for Tesla. The House Committee on Energy and Commerce’s draft budget proposal released Sunday night axes two of the primary avenues by which the electric vehicle giant earns regulatory credits. Congress also appears poised to vote to revoke California’s authority to implement its Zero-Emission Vehicle program by the end of the month, another key source of credits for the automaker. The sale of all regulatory credits combined earned the company a total of $595 million in the first quarter on a net income of just $409 million — that is, they represented its entire margin of profitability. On the whole, credits represented 38% of Tesla’s net income last year.
To add insult to injury, the House Ways and Means committee on Monday proposed eliminating the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 consumer EV tax credit, the used EVs tax credit, and the commercial EVs tax credit by year’s end. The move comes as part of the House’s larger budget-making process. And while it will likely be months before a new budget is finalized, with Trump seeking to extend his 2017 tax cuts and Congress limited in its spending ability, much of the IRA is on the chopping block. That is bad news for clean energy companies across the spectrum, from clean hydrogen producers to wind energy companies and battery manufacturers. But as recently as a few months ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was sounding cavalier.
After aligning himself with Trump during the election, Musk came out last year in support of ending the $7,500 consumer EV tax credit, along with all subsidies in all industries generally. He wrote on X that taking away the EV tax credit “will only help Tesla,” presumably assuming that while his company could withstand the policy headwinds, it would hurt emergent EV competitors even more, thus paradoxically helping Tesla eliminate its competition.
While it looks like Musk will get his wish, he probably didn’t account for a small but meaningful carveout in the Ways and Means committee proposal that allows the tax credit to stand through the end of 2026 for companies that have yet to sell 200,000 EVs in their lifetime. While Tesla’s sales figures are orders of magnitude beyond this, the extension will give a boost to its smaller competitors, as well as potentially some larger automakers with fewer EV sales to their credit.
A number of other provisions in the Ways and Means committee’s proposal spell bad news for Tesla and EV automakers on the whole. These include the elimination of the $4,000 tax credit for used EVs as well as the $7,500 tax credit for commercial EVs — which leased cars also qualify for. This second credit, often referred to as the “leasing loophole,” allows consumers leasing EVs to redeem the full tax credit even if their vehicle doesn’t meet the domestic content requirements for the buyer’s credit. The committee also wants to phase out the advanced manufacturing tax credit by the end of 2031, one year earlier than previously planned. While not a huge change, this credit incentivizes the domestic production of clean energy components such as battery cells, battery modules, and solar inverters — all products Tesla is heavily invested in.
The domestic regulatory credits that comprise such an outsize portion of Tesla’s profits, meanwhile, come from a mix of state and federal standards, all of which are under attack. These are California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle program, which sets ZEV production and sales mandates, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, and the Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gas emissions standards.
While the mandates differ in their ambition and implementation mechanisms, all three give automakers credits when they make progress toward EV production targets, fuel economy standards, or emissions standards; exceed these requirements, and automakers earn extra credits. Vehicle manufacturers can then trade those additional credits to carmakers that aren’t meeting state or federal targets. Since Tesla only makes EVs, it always earns more credits than it needs, and many automakers rely on buying these credits to comply with all three regulations.
It’s unclear as of now whether lawmakers have the authority to eliminate the federal fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards via budget reconciliation. A Senate stricture known as the Byrd Rule mandates that provisions align with the basic purpose of the reconciliation process: implementing budgetary changes; those with only “incidental” budgetary impacts can thus be deemed “extraneous” and excluded from the final bill. It’s yet to be seen how the standards in question will be categorized. At first blush, fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards are a stretch to meet the Byrd Rule, but that determination will take weeks, or even potentially months to play out.
What’s for sure is that California’s ZEV program cannot be eliminated through this process, as the program derives its authority from a Clean Air Act waiver, which was first granted to the state by the Environmental Protection Agency in 1967. This waiver allows California to set stricter emissions standards than those at the federal level because of the “compelling and extraordinary circumstances” the state faces when it comes to air quality in the San Joaquin Valley and Los Angeles basin. California’s latest targets — which require all model year 2035 cars sold in the state to be zero emissions — have been adopted by 11 other states, plus Washington D.C.
These increasingly ambitious goals would presumably cause the tax credits market — and thus Tesla’s profits — to heat up as well, as most automakers would struggle to fully electrify in the next 10 years. But the House voted at the beginning of the month to eliminate California’s latest EPA waiver, granted in December of last year. Now, it’s up to the Senate to decide whether they want to follow suit.
To accomplish this task, Republicans have called upon a legislative process known as the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to overturn newly implemented federal rules. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, for one, has been vocal about using the process to end California’s so-called “EV mandate,” writing in the Wall Street Journal last week that “it’s time for the Senate to finish the job.” And yet other Senate Republicans are reluctant to attempt to roll back California’s waiver. The Government Accountability Officeand the Senate Parliamentarian have both determined that the regulatory allowance ought not to be subject to the Congressional Review Act as it’s an EPA “order” rather than a “rule.” Going against this guidance could thus set a precedent that gives Congress a broad ability to gut executive-level rules.
During his first term, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stood in firm opposition to efforts to roll back fuel efficiency standards. But lately, as the administration has started turning its longstanding anti-EV rhetoric into actual policy, Trump’s new best friend has been relatively quiet. Tesla’s stock is down about 25% since Trump took office, as investors worry that Musk’s political preoccupations have kept him from focusing on his company’s performance. Not to mention the fact that Musk's enthusiastic support for Trump, major role in mass federal layoffs, and, well, whole personality have alienated his liberal-leaning customer base.
So while Musk may have staged a Tesla showroom on the White House lawn in March, awing the President with the ways in which “everything’s computer,” he’s presumably well aware of exactly how Trump’s policies — and his own involvement in them — stand to deeply hurt his business. Whether Tesla will make it through this regulatory onslaught and self-inflicted brand damage as a profitable company remains to be seen. But with Musk planning to slink away from the White House and back into the boardroom, and with House leaders hoping to complete work on the reconciliation bill by Memorial Day, we should start to get answers soon enough.
On gutting energy grants, the Inflation Reduction Act’s last legs, and dishwashers
Current conditions: Eighty of Minnesota’s 87 counties had red flag warnings on Monday, with conditions expected to remain dry and hot through Tuesday • 15 states in the South and Midwest will experience “extreme” humidity this week • It will be 99 degrees Fahrenheit today in Emerson, Manitoba. The municipality hit 100 last weekend — the earliest in the year Canada has ever recorded triple digits.
Republicans on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce released their draft budget proposal on Sunday night, and my colleague Matthew Zeitlin dove into its widespread cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act and other clean energy and environment programs. Among the rescissions — clawbacks of unspent money in existing programs — and other proposals, Matthew highlights:
Those are just a few of the cuts, which the Sierra Club estimates would add up to $1.6 billion for programs related to decarbonizing heavy industry alone. You can read Matthew’s whole analysis here.
Republicans on the Committee on Energy and Commerce weren’t the only ones who’ve been busy. On Monday, the House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax policy, proposed overhauling clean energy tax credits. Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo took a look at those proposals, including:
There’s much more, which Emily gets into here.
In response to President Trump’s executive order last week ordering the Energy Department to “eliminate restrictive water pressure and efficiency rules” for appliances, the DOE published a list of 47 regulations on Monday that it has targeted as “burdensome and costly.” Appliances regulated by the DOE’s list include cook tops, dishwashers, compressors, and microwave ovens, with the agency claiming the deregulation effort would cut 125,000 words from the Code of Federal Regulations and “save the American people an estimated $11 billion,”The New York Timesreports. By the government’s own accounting, though, efficiency standards saved the average American household about $576 on energy and gas bills in 2024, and reduced energy spending for households and businesses by $105 billion in total. “If this attack on consumers succeeds, President Trump would be raising costs dramatically for families as manufacturers dump energy- and water-wasting products into the market,” Andrew deLaski, executive director of the Appliance Standards Awareness Project, said in a statement. “Fortunately, it’s patently illegal, so hold your horses.”
Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin said Monday that the Trump administration plans to target stop-start technology in cars. According to the EPA’s website, start-stop technology saves fuel “by turning off the engine when the vehicle comes to a stop and automatically starting it back up when you step on the accelerator,” improving fuel economy by 4% to 5%, especially in conditions like stop-and-go city driving. Zeldin, though, characterized the technology as when “your car dies at every red light so companies get a climate participation trophy. EPA approved it, and everyone hates it, so we’re fixing it.” Neither Zeldin nor the EPA offered further details on what that might entail.
More than 2,100 climate adaptation companies generated a combined $1 trillion in revenue last year by offering products and services mitigating the risks of climate change, a new study by London Stock Exchange Group found. “One question that we are getting a lot at the moment is: ‘With the Trump administration in office, what does that mean for the green economy?,’” Jaakko Kooroshy, LSEG’s global head of sustainable investment research, told Bloomberg in an interview about the report. The answer is “this thing is now so big and so robust, it’s not going to implode just like that,” he added.
The analysis looked at 20,000 companies worldwide and “found that adaptation-related revenues last year accounted for roughly a fifth of the $5 trillion global green economy,” with green buildings and water-related infrastructure being the most significant contributors, Bloomberg adds. LSEG further noted that if all companies related to the “green economy” were considered their own industry group, they’d have had the best performance of any equity sector over the past decade.
Thermasol
Wellness company Thermasol has introduced the first off-grid, solar-powered sauna in the U.S., which can reach 170 degrees Fahrenheit in about half an hour.
Rob and Jesse digest the Ways and Means budget bill live on air, alongside former Treasury advisor Luke Bassett.
The fight over the Inflation Reduction Act has arrived. After months of discussion, the Republican majority in the House is now beginning to write, review, and argue about its plans to transform the climate law’s energy tax provisions.
We wanted to record a show about how to follow that battle. But then — halfway through recording that episode — the Republican-controlled House Ways and Means Committee dropped the first draft of its proposal to gut the IRA, and we had to review it on-air.
We were joined by Luke Bassett, a former senior advisor for domestic climate policy at the U.S. Treasury Department and a former senior staff member at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. We chatted about the major steps in the reconciliation process, what to watch next, and what to look for in the new GOP draft. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: Let’s come back to this as a negotiation. This is the first salvo from the House. What does this tell you about where we go from here? Is this a floor? Could it get worse? Is it likely to get better as the lobbying kicks off in earnest by various industries threatened by these changes, and they try to peel things back? What do you think happens next?
Luke Bassett: If you run with the horror movie analogy here, this is scary. I think a lot of people, especially in any energy startups or folks who have been penciling out deals, to start really lining up new projects — or even folks looking for a new EV to buy are suddenly going to have to totally rethink what the next few years look like.
And, you know, whether or not they want to build a factory, buy a car, or have to switch from an electric heat pump to a whale oil burning stove. Who knows? That said, there are champions for each of these in very different ways in the Senate. There are lobbyists who —
Jenkins: — in the House, too.
Bassett: Exactly. There will be lobbyists weighing in. And I think it matters to really think through … I think we’ve been faced with gigantic uncertainty since January. And there’s a part where companies all across the energy sector are looking at this text as we speak and thinking, whoa, I didn’t sign up for this. And to combine this with tariffs, to combine it with the cuts to other federal programs in the other committees’ jurisdictions, it is just a nearly impossible outlook for building new projects. And I bet a bunch of people, CEOs and otherwise, are thinking, I wish Joe Manchin were back in the Senate. But you know, it is what it is.
Robinson Meyer: I will say that it could get worse from here because they will be negotiating with the House Freedom Caucus and with various other conservative House members. And they’ll also be negotiating against the president’s wishes, which is that this move and get done as soon as possible. And so when I talked to Senator John Curtis, Republican of Utah, who’s a supporter of the IRA, or wants to see it extended in large part, and I asked him questions like, what happens if Republicans really go to work in the House on the IRA and then it gets sent to the Senate? One dynamic we’ve already seen during this Congress is that te House Republican Caucus in this Congress is unusually functional and unusually strategic, and has been unusually good at passing relatively extreme and aggressive policy and then jamming the Senate with it.
And unlike what has happened in the past, which is the House Republican Caucus can’t really do anything, so the Senate passes a far more moderate policy, sends it to the House and dares the House to shut things down. This time the House, if folks remember back in March, the House passed a fairly aggressive budget and kicked it to the Senate and then dared the Senate to shut down the government, and ultimately the Senate decided to keep the government open.
I asked Curtis what happens if they do the same with the IRA. What happens if they really go to task on the IRA? They pass fairly aggressive cuts to it and they send it to the Senate. And his answer was, well, I don’t think the House is going to do that. I don’t think a bill that really savages the IRA could pass the House.
We’ll see, but I just don’t think there’s any floor here. I think there’s no floor for how bad this gets. And I think I just don’t, you know … Before we went into the administration, there was a lot of confidence that the Trump administration and the new Republican majority and the Congress was not going to do anything to substantially make the business environment worse. We’ve discovered there does seem to be a degree of tariffs that will make them squeal and pull back, but we actually haven’t found that in legislature yet.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.