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A little insulation goes a long way toward decarbonizing.

When you think about ways to decarbonize, your mind will likely go straight to shiny new machines — an electric vehicle, solar panels, or an induction stove, perhaps. But let’s not forget the low-tech, low-hanging fruit: your home itself.
Adding insulation, fixing any gaps, cracks or leaks where air can get out, and perhaps installing energy efficient windows and doors are the necessary first steps to decarbonizing at home — though you may also want to consider a light-colored “cool roof,” which reflects sunlight to keep the home comfortable, and electric panel and wiring upgrades to support broader electrification efforts.
Getting started on one or multiple of these retrofits can be daunting — there’s lingo to be learned, audits to be performed, and various incentives to navigate. Luckily, Heatmap is here to help.
Cora Wyent is the Director of Research at Rewiring America, where she conducts research and analysis on how to rapidly electrify the entire economy.
Joseph Lstiburek is the founding principal at the Building Science Corporation, a consulting firm focused on designing and constructing energy efficient, durable, and economic buildings.
Lucy de Barbaro is the founder and director of Energy Efficiency Empowerment, a Pittsburgh-based organization that seeks to transform the home renovation process and help low and middle-income homeowners make energy efficiency improvements.
Definitively, yes! When people hear the word “insulation” they often think of how it can protect them from the cold. And while it certainly does do that, insulation’s overall role is to slow the transfer of heat both out of your home when it’s chilly and into your home when it’s hot. That means you won’t need to use your air conditioning as much during those scorching summer days or your furnace as much when the temperatures drop.
Quite possibly! The most definitive way to know if your home could be improved by weatherization is by getting a home energy audit —- more on that below. While a specific level of insulation is required for all newly constructed homes, these codes and standards are updated frequently. So if you’re feeling uncomfortable in your living space, or if you think your heating and cooling bills are unusually high, it’s definitely worth seeing what an expert thinks. And if you’re interested in getting electric appliances like a heat pump or induction stove, some wiring upgrades will almost certainly be necessary.
Energy efficient appliances like electric heat pumps or induction stoves are fantastic ways to decarbonize your life, but serve a fundamentally different purpose than most of the upgrades that we’re going to talk about here. When you get better air sealing, insulation, windows, or doors, what you’re doing is essentially regulating the temperature of your home, making you less reliant on energy intensive heating and cooling systems. And while this can certainly lead to savings on your energy bill and a positive impact on the environment at large, these upgrades will also allow you to simply live more comfortably.
This is the starting point for making informed decisions about any energy efficiency upgrades that you’re considering. During a home energy audit, a certified auditor (sometimes also referred to as an energy assessor or rater or verifier) will inspect your home to identify both the highest-impact and most cost-effective upgrades you can make, including how much you stand to save on your energy bills by doing so.
Wyent told me checking with your local utility is a good place to start, as many offer low-cost audits. Even if your utility doesn’t do energy assessments, they may be able to point you in the direction of local auditors or state-level resources and directories. The Residential Energy Services Network also provides a directory of certified assessors searchable by location, as does the Department of Energy’s Energy Score program, though neither list is comprehensive.
Audits typically cost between $200 and $700 depending on your home’s location, size, and type, as well as the scope of the audit. Homeowners can claim 30% of the cost of their audit on their federal taxes, up to $150. To be eligible, make sure you find a certified home energy auditor. The DOE provides a list of recognized certification programs.
Important: Make sure the auditor performs both a blower door test and a thermographic inspection. These diagnostic tools are key to determining where air leakage and heat loss/gain is occurring.
Your energy audit isn’t the only thing eligible for a credit. The 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit allows homeowners to claim up to 30% of the cost of a variety of home upgrades, up to a combined total of $1,200 per year. This covers upgrading your insulation, windows, doors, skylights, electrical wiring, and/or electrical panel. Getting an energy audit is also included in this category.
While $1,200 is the max amount you can claim for all retrofits combined, certain renovations come with their own specific limitations. Let’s break it down:
State and local incentives:
Depending on where you live, there may be additional state and local incentives, and we suggest asking your contractor what you are eligible for. But since incentive programs change frequently, it’s a good idea to do your own research too. Get acquainted with Energy Star, a joint program run by the Environmental Protection Agency and the DOE which provides information on energy efficient products, practices, and standards. On Energy Star’s website, you can search by zip code for utility rebates that can help you save on insulation, windows, and electrical work.
“Starting by looking at your local utility programs can be a great resource too, because utilities offer rebates or incentives for weatherizing your home or installing a new roof,” said Wyent.
Everyone wants to minimize the number of times they break open or drill into their walls. To that end, it’s useful to plan out all the upgrades you might want to get done over the next five to 10 years to figure out where efficiency might fit in.
Some primary examples: Installing appliances like a heat pump, induction stove, or Level 2 EV charger (all of which you can read more about in our other guides) often require electrical upgrades. Even if you don’t plan to get any of these new appliances now, pre-wiring your home to prepare for their installation (with the exception of a heat pump — see our heat pump guide for more info on that) will save you money later on.
De Barbaro also notes that if you’re planning to repaint your walls anytime soon, this would also be a convenient time to add insulation, as that involves drilling holes which then need to be patched and repainted anyway. Likewise, if you were already planning to replace your home’s siding, this would be a natural time to insulate. Finally, if you’re planning to get a heat pump in the coming years, getting better insulation now will ensure this system is maximally effective.
Conversely, if you’re cash-strapped, spreading out electrical and weatherization upgrades over the course of a few years allows you to claim the full $1,200 tax credit every year. Whether those tax savings are enough to cover the added contractor time and clean-up costs, though, will depend on the particulars of your situation.
“Come in with a plan and talk to the contractor about everything that you want to do in the future, not just immediately,” said Wyent.
Unlike solar installers, which are often associated with large regional and national companies, the world of weatherization and electrical upgrades is often much more localized, meaning you’ll need to do a bit of legwork to verify that the contractors and installers you come across are reliable.
Wyent told me she typically starts by asking friends, family, and neighbors for references, as well as turning to Google and Yelp reviews. Depending on where you live and what type of work you want done, your local utility may also offer incentives for weatherization and electrification upgrades, and can possibly provide a list of prescreened contractors who are licensed and insured for this type of work.
These questions will help you vet contractors and gain a better understanding of their process regardless of the type of renovation you’re pursuing.
Common wisdom says you should always get three quotes. But that doesn’t mean you should automatically choose the cheapest option. Lstiburek says the old adage applies: “If it sounds too good to be true, it's probably too good to be true.” Be sure that your contractors and installers are properly licensed and insured and read the fine print of your contract. Beyond this, how to find qualified professionals and what to ask largely depends on the type of upgrade you are pursuing. So let’s break it down, starting with the biggest bang for your buck.
Air sealing and insulating your home is usually the number one way to increase its energy efficiency. Energy Star says nine out of 10 homes are underinsulated, and many also have significant air leaks. In general, homes lose more heating and cooling energy through walls and attics than through windows and doors, so air sealing and adding insulation in key areas should be your first priority.
“People don't realize how collectively, small holes everywhere add up. So on average here in Pennsylvania, typically those holes would add up to the surface of three sheets of paper, continuously open to the outdoors,” said de Barbaro.
Determining where air is escaping is the purpose of the blower door test and the thermographic inspection, so after your energy audit you should have a good idea of where to begin with these retrofits. This guide from the Department of Energy is a great resource on all the places in a home one might consider insulating.
Choosing an insulation type:
Every home is different, and the type of insulation you choose will depend on a number of factors including where you’re insulating, whether that area is finished or unfinished, what R-Value is right for your climate, and your budget. You can check out this comprehensive list of different insulation types to learn about their respective advantages and use cases. But when it comes to attic rafters and exterior walls, De Barbaro said that one option rises above the rest.
“The magic word here is dense-packed cellulose insulation!” De Barbaro told me.
This type of insulation (which falls under the “loose fill and blown-in” category) is made from recycled paper products, meaning it has very low embodied carbon emissions. It’s also cheap and effective. For exterior walls and attic rafters, be sure to avoid loose-fill cellulose, as that can settle and become less effective over time — although for attic floors, loose-fill works well. Both are installed by drilling holes into the wall or floor space and blowing the insulation in under pressure.
We recommend discussing all of these options with your contractor, but here are the other materials you’re most likely to come across:
In addition to asking friends, family, and your local utility for contractor recommendations, Energy Star specifically recommends these additional resources where you can find licensed and insured contractors for insulation work.
While air sealing and insulation should definitely be number one on your weatherization checklist, plenty of heat gets lost through windows, doors, and skylights, as well. Single pane glass is a particularly poor insulator, and while fewer houses these days have it, upgrading to double or triple pane windows or skylights can be a big energy saver. Likewise, steel or fiberglass doors are much better insulators than traditional wooden doors.
But be warned: These can be pricey upgrades. The cost of installing windows alone ranges from hundreds of dollars up to $1,500 per window, and many homes have ten or more. It’s unlikely you’ll fully recoup the outlay through your energy savings, so before going about these retrofits, be sure that you’ve taken care of the easy stuff first.
Once you’ve done your research, it’s time to schedule a consultation with an installer, who can help you refine your project needs, discuss design and installation options, and provide you with a quote.
“So if you pick a Marvin window, make sure that you have a Marvin certified installer in your location, installing the Marvin window according to the Marvin instructions.” said Lstiburek.
Insulating your attic floor or your roof rafters is the best way to ensure that your home is sealed off from the elements. But if you live in a hot climate and need a new roof anyway (most last 25 to 50 years), then you might consider getting a cool roof, which can be made from a variety of materials and installed on almost any slope. However, they won’t lead to energy efficiencies in all geographies, so be sure to do your research beforehand!
Last but certainly not least is a retrofit that’s a little different from the rest. Unlike getting insulation, new windows, or a new roof, upgrading your wiring or electric panel doesn’t lead to greater energy efficiency by regulating the temperature of your home. What it does instead is enable greater energy efficiency by making it possible to operate an increasing number of electrified appliances and devices in your house.
For example, getting an electric or induction stove or dryer, a standard heat pump, a heat pump water heater, or an electric vehicle charger will require that you add new electric circuits to support these devices. And as these new loads add up, you may need to install a larger electric panel to support it all.
After sourcing electrician recommendations from family and friends, a good place to turn is Rewiring America’s contractor directory network. (Rewiring America is also a sponsor of Decarbonize Your Life.)Networks in your area can then provide you with a list of qualified electricians.
“Most people are really only using somewhere around 40% of what their current panels space. So you can actually add a fair amount of new circuits to your existing panel and upgrade your wiring while not having to upgrade your panel at all,” Wyent said.
Once you have three quotes in hand, all that’s left to do is evaluate your options, choose a contractor or installer, and sign a contract. Cost will likely be a major factor in the decision, but you’ll also want to ensure that the cheapest quote doesn’t mean corners will be cut. Here’s what to look out for.
Pay close attention to warranties. This applies both to the warranty for the work being performed and to the warranties for the products themselves. If an installation job or a product is well priced but comes with a short warranty, this should give you pause.
Avoid “same day signing specials.” If you’re being rushed into signing a contract, this is also a bad sign. Be sure to read the fine print — most cost estimates should be good for a few weeks at minimum.
Get specific. Your quotes should specify the type of work being performed, the scope of the work, cost (broken down by materials, labor, permits, and other expenses), payment method, and a tentative timeline for completion. A quote is much less formal than a contract, so if some of this information isn’t provided up front, don’t hesitate to ask for clarification so that you can make apples-to-apples comparisons between different contractors.
When you get a contract in hand, double check that:
Then it’s time to sign, sit back, and enjoy the soothing sounds of hammering, drilling, insulation blowing, and wire tinkering, content in knowing that you’re decarbonizing your home down to its very bones!
Now that you’re living comfortably in a maximally energy efficient home, you’re probably wondering when you’ll start seeing all those incentives you researched pay off. First off, know that you must wait until all renovations are complete and paid for to claim your federal tax credit. That means that even if you purchased new windows this year, if you have them installed in 2025, you’ll file for a tax credit with your 2025 return. Here’s how to go about it.
For state and local incentives, check the website for your local utility as well your local and state government and energy office to see what documentation is required. When in doubt, keep all of your records and receipts!
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Current conditions: Oman’s Ayn Athum Waterfalls burst to life this week as rain battered the Gulf nation’s southwestern Dhofar governorate • Severe monsoon flooding has deluged parts of the American Southwest, including Navajo Nation, where at least three people have died • Tropical Storm Dujuan is barreling toward Japan, where it threatens flooding and landslides in Tokyo and Chiba.
When the Houthis stormed Yemen’s Red Sea coast last week, the Iran-backed rebels gained new ground from which to attack boats passing through the vital shipping lane, extending Tehran’s reach from the Persian Gulf’s hotly contested Strait of Hormuz to the waterway on the opposite side of the Arabian peninsula. In response, oil prices surged. But the price per barrel of crude is slipping again as the United States has rebuked Saudi Arabia’s requests for help routing the militants, instead seeking a deal that keeps the Bab al-Mandab Strait open to American and Israeli ships. Over the weekend, U.S. diplomats met with Houthi officials in neutral Oman, Reuters reported. Following the talks, the Times of Israel reported that Houthis promised not to attack any Israeli or commercial ships of any kind, only those linked to Saudi Arabia, which has funded the Yemeni government’s campaign against the rebels.
Satellite images published by the investigative site Hunterbrook showed workers building a bypass on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, its main conduit for circumventing oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz, to get around the pumping station damaged by a Houthi attack. But the promise of free movement through the Red Sea sent the price of oil down by between 1% and 4% on Thursday.
Just yesterday, I told you that the Trump administration had moved to drastically change how the government interprets the Endangered Species Act to only consider deaths of protected animals illegal if the creatures were intentionally targeted. Such a shift would exclude the vast majority of deaths linked to energy companies, such as when birds land in toxic oil ponds or collide with wind turbines. Whether federal enforcement ultimately reflects that interpretation depends on the outcome of a forthcoming lawsuit. Already, Earthjustice has vowed to file litigation challenging the Trump administration’s legal memo directing federal agencies on its new view of the nation’s bedrock conservation law. “The government’s new legal position is a prescription for extinction. It says that as long as you claim you didn’t mean to kill an endangered species, the law can’t and won’t stop you,” Earthjustice attorney Ben Levitan said in a press release. “That’s ridiculous — and a totally illegal, active misreading of the Endangered Species Act. We’ll see the Trump administration in court about this.”
The toll wind turbines take on migratory birds is a favorite talking point of the energy source’s opponents. But relief from the responsibility to avoid killing birds would be cold comfort to the wind industry as developers wait for the Trump administration to follow a court ruling requiring it to continue processing applications for turbines. As my colleague Jael Holzman wrote yesterday, the administration has continued delaying. At least one other legal fight within the offshore wind industry has, meanwhile, come to a conclusion. Vineyard Wind and its turbine supplier GE Vernova, announced an “amicable settlement” this week that resolves “all outstanding litigation,” the New Bedford Light reported. The developer sued the supplier in April, accusing GE Vernova of an $800 million breach of contract following a blade failure in 2024.

The U.S. needs more long-term energy storage, and few technologies are better tested by time than using excess electricity to pump water into a reservoir, where it can be released downhill and run through turbines to generate huge bursts of power when it’s needed. Back when the U.S. had lots of nuclear power, pumped hydro plants harvested the unused electrons during the night. With solar now producing more electricity during the day in some parts of the country than the grid demands, pumped hydro is seeing a potential renewal. But the U.S. hasn’t built any pumped hydro facilities since the 1990s. A project that looked likely to break that dry spell is now on pause as the Trump administration heeds opponents’ concerns and orders a new study on its environmental impact.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has delayed its decision on whether to license the $3 billion project to add a pumped hydro facility to the Seminoe Reservoir, a lightning bolt-shaped waterway in southern Wyoming. The Bureau of Land Management said it will conduct a supplemental environmental impact statement and open the door to more public comments and input from local officials. “This feels like a small victory,” CiCi Oliver, a fly-fishing shop owner who opposed the project over its potential disruptions to the ecology of the reservoir, told WyoFile this week.
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At the start of the Iran War, some interpreters of President Donald Trump’s supposed four-dimensional geopolitical chess moves suggested that shutting down the Strait of Hormuz was an intentional move to show China’s vulnerable underbelly: Beijing’s dependence on oil imports. And yet, China’s vast oil stockpiles and refining capacity, plus its array of alternative energy sources, allowed the country to slash oil purchases by 23% in the first six months of the war compared to the same period last year, according to a New York Times analysis of customs data. “This is a power that nobody thought China had,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Going forward, it’s going to be really interesting to see: What does China do with this newfound power?” The heaviest answer to that question now weighing on Western officials involves China considering the ramifications of a potential invasion of Taiwan to be less worrying than before.
That’s especially true because Taiwan, by contrast, is more vulnerable to losing access to oil and gas imports than ever before. After completing its decades-long mission last year to shut down the nuclear fleet that powered the island’s 20th century transformation into the world’s premiere chipmaker, Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which advocates for the republic’s continued de facto independence — left the nation dependent on imported liquified natural gas and crude for the vast majority of its energy. Now, according to Nikkei, the government is hastening its efforts to potentially bring at least one nuclear station back online.
Yet another state is considering a moratorium on data centers — one close to the epicenter of the artificial intelligence boom. Maryland, which shares a grid and a border with northern Virginia’s data center megacluster, could see a ban come into effect as early as next year if state legislators pass a bill in the next session. Governor Wes Moore, a Democrat, said he “will absolutely sign” a statewide ban “if it’s coming from local legislators.” Speaking to Punchbowl News, he suggested that any moratorium would come with loopholes for projects that meet high standards. “I believe local jurisdictions should have a say. There are certain local jurisdictions who want it,” he said. “I just need them to understand I have very strict guidelines for what is actually going to get state approval.”
A startup founded by members of the team of U.S. government scientists that first achieved net-energy gain from a fusion reaction has hit a new milestone that should raise the eyebrows of even skeptics of the so-called holy grail of clean power. Less than two months after publicizing its roadmap to commercial fusion, Inertia Enterprises ran a simulation demonstrating that its first commercial plant will be capable of producing 25 times more energy than the laser needed to trigger the reaction, the company told my colleague Katie Brigham in an exclusive.
The company using the only technology proven to achieve breakeven has simulated net energy gain.
Less than two months after publicizing its roadmap to commercial fusion, Inertia Enterprises has checked step one off its list. The startup ran a simulation demonstrating that its first commercial facility will be capable of producing over 25 times more fusion energy than the laser energy put into it, Inertia told Heatmap exclusively.
This is actually the second milestone Inertia has achieved on its 10-point roadmap to building a grid-scale power plant by the mid-2030s — the startup announced last month that it had cut the manufacturing time for its fusion fuel pellets from days to minutes. But for the lay fusion observer, this latest achievement may be the more striking of the two. So far, the only entity to achieve breakeven — the point at which a fusion reaction produces more energy than it consumes — is Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s National Ignition Facility.
Inertia, founded last year by current and former Lawrence Livermore scientists, is now building on that result under a formal research partnership with the lab, using the same technical approach as NIF: firing high-powered lasers at a tiny pellet of fusion fuel, compressing it until the nuclei fuse and release enormous amounts of energy.
The new results, which Inertia said it’s submitting for peer review, demonstrate that the company’s first commercial-scale plant ought to generate over 250 megawatts of electricity for the grid. But because the startup’s machine has yet to be built, the projected energy gain and power output come from a so-called “virtual shot,” a high-fidelity computer simulation that uses the same design codes Lawrence Livermore has used for its own successful ignition experiments, and is thus calibrated and benchmarked against real results.
“We are simulating all the things that we know happen in a fusion experiment, and it’s using the validated models — the best, highest-fidelity physics models that have been validated to NIF ignition experiments — to project where we will be with Inertia,” the startup’s co-founder, Annie Kritcher, told me. The simulation accounts for factors such as “target defects, variations in laser performance, laser delivery, [and] injection tolerances,” she explained.
Even when variables like these fluctuate, Kritcher said, the machine’s energy yield should barely change. That sets Inertia’s system apart from NIF’s, which operates right on the so-called “ignition cliff,” where small imperfections in the fusion fuel target or slight variations in laser performance can determine whether the system achieves ignition at all. But because Inertia designed its system to operate far above that threshold, minor flaws should translate only to modest dips in performance.
Other fusion startups have run simulations demonstrating the validity of their underlying physics and — in industry leader Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ case — even projecting their ability to exceed breakeven. But Kritcher argues that Inertia’s “virtual shot” is a more meaningful achievement because the startup’s plant design replicates the underlying physics validated by NIF, the only fusion experiment yet to cross breakeven in the real world. “The extrapolation risk for the other validation simulations is much, much, much higher,” she told me.
Kritcher has experienced this risk firsthand during her many years running experiments at NIF. When the facility fired its first real shots at ignition in 2011, she was working as a post-doctoral researcher at the national lab, and sincerely believed these early experiments would be a success. But the shots turned out to be “orders of magnitude off” from achieving their goal, thanks to the “unknown unknowns and the physics that weren’t included” in the team’s initial modeling.
Other companies that haven’t yet proven their physics on a real-world machine still face those “unknown unknowns,” she explained, whereas Inertia has been able to unveil and eliminate as many as anyone has yet found. The startup’s plant design is by no means an exact replica of NIF, however. For starters, its fusion targets will be twice as large, and its lasers roughly five times as powerful. The facility will also fire 10 shots per second, compared with NIF’s roughly one shot per week, using thousands of individually adjustable laser beams rather than NIF’s fixed 192. So as is nearly always the case when scaling up, some unknown unknowns likely remain.
But Kritcher is confident that the virtual shot will translate to real world performance — a level of certainty she admittedly hasn’t always had in her decades of nuclear engineering research and practice. In addition to her role at Inertia, Kritcher remains a senior scientist at Lawrence Livermore, where she has led the physics design for NIF’s fusion energy experiments since 2019.
A few years before the lab ultimately achieved breakeven in 2022 — more than a decade after its first attempts — Kritcher was beginning to doubt that they would ever get there. Then, in 2021, NIF reached a breakthrough that went largely unnoticed outside the ranks of dedicated fusion observers: It fired a shot that produced 70% as much fusion energy as the reaction consumed, bringing the facility within striking distance of net energy gain. And while it didn’t reach that threshold, the scientists said the experiment demonstrated ignition — a self-sustaining fusion burn.
The result gave Kritcher assurance that the lab was on the cusp of energy gain. Now, she feels a similar level of confidence that Inertia can translate its simulated 25x energy gain into a real world commercial facility. “The change that we made going from that first ignition result — the 0.7x gain to the [net energy] gain result — that’s the kind of change I feel like we’re making here,” she told me. “It’s working now, and we’re just making it bigger and better.”
Greenhouse gas pollution could drop by half a percent this year, according to a new analysis.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
Back in March of last year, I coined the phrase “Degrowth Donald” to describe President Donald Trump’s accidental environmental impact.
Trump might say that climate change was a “hoax” or “scam,” I said. But when you looked at his actions, a different set of beliefs emerged.
He imposed a 10% tax on Canadian oil — a far more effective deterrent on consuming Albertan crude than a decade of protests against Keystone XL. He taxed foreign car imports and levied new tariffs on single-family-home building materials. You could say he had, I don’t know, rhubarb politics — a MAGA red stalk erupting in big green leaves.
Of course, Trump’s actual environmental politics are far more complicated. He has declared war on wind energy and gutted greenhouse gas rules. As you read in Heatmap AM this morning, the Trump administration announced today it would transform the Endangered Species Act to legalize a much broader range of animal killings.
But every so often, Degrowth Donald rides again. And so it is with the Iran war, which has gone on much longer than Trump initially envisioned, changed the global energy economy, and made China’s distinctive approach to energy security — which relies on electrification and large oil and mineral stockpiles — look more popular globally. It has triggered an energy crisis that is, at the moment, getting worse: Even in the United States, gasoline prices are surging again, and diesel is nearing its post-2022 inflation-adjusted record highs, according to Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Energy prices are even higher in much of Europe.
One upshot of these higher prices, though? Emissions now seem to be going down. According to a new analysis from Carbon Brief, a U.K.-based nonprofit, global emissions from fossil fuels will fall by half a percent this year because of higher oil and natural gas prices caused by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure. What’s interesting is that coal burning will actually increase — by more than 1% — but it will be swamped by declines from oil and gas consumption.
That’s a change from what authorities once expected. Last year, the International Energy Agency projected that global coal use would decline this year because of Chinese policies. But fuel switching will drive it up.
Of course, emissions declines caused by higher prices (or economic downturns) are the worst type of reductions. What we want to see, instead, is countries switching to lower-carbon forms of energy. But energy crises have a way of pushing every country’s energy policy in new directions. This year’s events have convinced Thailand, for instance, to reduce its liquified natural gas consumption and switch to renewables instead; they have caused Canada to open its market up to cheap Chinese electric vehicles and pursue an “associate membership” with the European Union. The 1970s oil crisis ultimately created the global energy regime of the 1980s and 1990s. What else countries might learn from this crisis is not too hard to guess.