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On tax credit deadlines, America’s nuclear export hopes, and data center flexibility
Current conditions: Hurricane Erin’s riptides continue lashing the Atlantic Coast, bringing 15-foot waves to the eastern end of New York’s Long Island • In Colorado, the Derby fire tripled in size to more than 2,600 acres, prompting evacuations in the county north of the ski enclave of Aspen • Heavy rain in Sydney set a new 18-year record.
Trump is preparing to onshore turbines, likely shrinking their numbers. Scott Olson/Getty Images
The Trump administration launched an investigation into imported wind turbines and parts, teeing up what Bloomberg called a “potential precursor to adding more tariffs on the clean-energy components.” The Department of Commerce started a national security probe on August 13 to query whether the imports undermine domestic production and put the country at risk from foreign opponents, according to a notice posted Thursday on the agency’s website. The agency already said this week that it would include wind turbines and related parts on the list of products facing 50% steel and aluminum tariffs. As of 2023, at least 41% of wind-related equipment to the U.S. came from Mexico, Canada, and China, according to figures Bloomberg cited from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Also on Thursday, the Treasury Department published an FAQ document outlining the phaseout dates for eight key energy efficiency tax credits repealed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The rules all deal with zero-carbon vehicles or energy efficiency rebates for home improvements.
As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo and Robinson Meyer wrote when the first tranche of data on the programs came out around this time last year, millions of Americans had already taken advantage of at least one of the credits. But the uptake was largely concentrated among households earning $100,000 per year or more.
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For years, Westinghouse has been locked in an intellectual property dispute with South Korea’s two state-owned nuclear companies, as the American atomic energy giant accused the Korea Electric Power Corporation and its subsidiary, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, of ripping off its reactor technology. This week, the companies brokered a settlement that would keep the Korean giants from bidding on projects in North America, Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine, effectively eliminating what is arguably the United States’ most capable rival outside of Russia and China from the key markets Washington wants to dominate. That could spur a lot more bids for Westinghouse’s flagship gigawatt-sized AP1000 reactor, projects for which are already underway in Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine. But KoreaPro reported on Thursday that South Korea is pushing back on a deal Seoul fears infringes on its sovereignty.
In Sweden, meanwhile, the U.S.-Japanese joint venture GE Vernova-Hitachi Nuclear Energy secured a new deal to build its 300-megawatt small modular reactor that the government in Stockholm explicitly pitched as a bid to strengthen its trans-Atlantic security ties. “This is the beginning of something bigger, in many ways,” Ebba Busch, Sweden’s deputy prime minister, wrote in a post on LinkedIn. “As in the NATO process, Sweden is part of a larger movement.”
The Department of Energy extended its emergency order directing the J.H. Campbell Generating Plant in Michigan to remain open past its planned retirement. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright initially ordered the 1,420-megawatt coal station to stay online three months past its May 31 shutdown date, citing risks of electricity shortages in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, the electrical grid that runs from the Upper Midwest down to Louisiana. Starting Thursday, the latest order directs the plant’s owners to keep the station running November 19. The consultancy Grid Strategies estimated last week that if the Trump administration expands the effort to cover all 54 aging fossil fuel plants slated for closure between now and 2028, the program will cost upward of $6 billion. Last week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a framework for the utilities that own the affected plants to recoup the costs of operating the power stations past the closure dates from ratepayers, despite surging electricity prices.
The Data Center Coalition, a leading trade association representing the burgeoning server farm industry, has endorsed adopting programs to curb electricity demand when the grid is under stress. In a filing Thursday with the North Carolina Utility Commission, the industry group said it “supports exploring well-structured, voluntary demand-response and load flexibility programs for large load customers that allocates risk appropriately, provides clear incentives and compensation, and allows customers to meet their sustainability commitments.”
Researchers at Duke University put out an influential paper in February that found the U.S. could add gigawatts of additional demand from new data centers without building out an equivalent amount of generating plants if those facilities could curtail power usage when demand was particularly high. Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin described the strategy as “one weird trick for getting more data centers on the grid,” boiling down the approach simply as: “Just turn them off sometimes.” When I interviewed Tyler Norris, the study’s lead author, he pitched the idea as a way “to buy us some time” to figure out exactly how much electricity the artificial intelligence boom requires before we build out a bunch of gas plants that are even more expensive than usual due to the years-long backorder of turbines.
Researchers at the University of Houston claim to have made two major breakthroughs in carbon capture technology. The first breakthrough, published in the journal Nature Communications, introduces a new electrochemical process for filtering out carbon dioxide that avoids using a membrane like traditional carbon capture technology. The second, featured on the cover of the journal ES&T Engineering, demonstrates a new vanadium-based flow battery that could be used both to capture carbon and to store renewable energy. “We need solutions, and we wanted to be part of the solution. The biggest suspect out there is CO2 emissions, so the low-hanging fruit would be to eliminate those emissions,” Mim Rahimi, a professor at the University of Houston’s Cullen College of Engineering, said in a statement. “From membraneless systems to scalable flow systems, we’re charting pathways to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.”
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A war of attrition is now turning in opponents’ favor.
A solar developer’s defeat in Massachusetts last week reveals just how much stronger project opponents are on the battlefield after the de facto repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Last week, solar developer PureSky pulled five projects under development around the western Massachusetts town of Shutesbury. PureSky’s facilities had been in the works for years and would together represent what the developer has claimed would be one of the state’s largest solar projects thus far. In a statement, the company laid blame on “broader policy and regulatory headwinds,” including the state’s existing renewables incentives not keeping pace with rising costs and “federal policy updates,” which PureSky said were “making it harder to finance projects like those proposed near Shutesbury.”
But tucked in its press release was an admission from the company’s vice president of development Derek Moretz: this was also about the town, which had enacted a bylaw significantly restricting solar development that the company was until recently fighting vigorously in court.
“There are very few areas in the Commonwealth that are feasible to reach its clean energy goals,” Moretz stated. “We respect the Town’s conservation go als, but it is clear that systemic reforms are needed for Massachusetts to source its own energy.”
This stems from a story that probably sounds familiar: after proposing the projects, PureSky began reckoning with a burgeoning opposition campaign centered around nature conservation. Led by a fresh opposition group, Smart Solar Shutesbury, activists successfully pushed the town to drastically curtail development in 2023, pointing to the amount of forest acreage that would potentially be cleared in order to construct the projects. The town had previously not permitted facilities larger than 15 acres, but the fresh change went further, essentially banning battery storage and solar projects in most areas.
When this first happened, the state Attorney General’s office actually had PureSky’s back, challenging the legality of the bylaw that would block construction. And PureSky filed a lawsuit that was, until recently, ongoing with no signs of stopping. But last week, shortly after the Treasury Department unveiled its rules for implementing Trump’s new tax and spending law, which basically repealed the Inflation Reduction Act, PureSky settled with the town and dropped the lawsuit – and the projects went away along with the court fight.
What does this tell us? Well, things out in the country must be getting quite bleak for solar developers in areas with strident and locked-in opposition that could be costly to fight. Where before project developers might have been able to stomach the struggle, money talks – and the dollars are starting to tell executives to lay down their arms.
The picture gets worse on the macro level: On Monday, the Solar Energy Industries Association released a report declaring that federal policy changes brought about by phasing out federal tax incentives would put the U.S. at risk of losing upwards of 55 gigawatts of solar project development by 2030, representing a loss of more than 20 percent of the project pipeline.
But the trade group said most of that total – 44 gigawatts – was linked specifically to the Trump administration’s decision to halt federal permitting for renewable energy facilities, a decision that may impact generation out west but has little-to-know bearing on most large solar projects because those are almost always on private land.
Heatmap Pro can tell us how much is at stake here. To give you a sense of perspective, across the U.S., over 81 gigawatts worth of renewable energy projects are being contested right now, with non-Western states – the Northeast, South and Midwest – making up almost 60% of that potential capacity.
If historical trends hold, you’d expect a staggering 49% of those projects to be canceled. That would be on top of the totals SEIA suggests could be at risk from new Trump permitting policies.
I suspect the rate of cancellations in the face of project opposition will increase. And if this policy landscape is helping activists kill projects in blue states in desperate need of power, like Massachusetts, then the future may be more difficult to swallow than we can imagine at the moment.
And more on the week’s most important conflicts around renewables.
1. Wells County, Indiana – One of the nation’s most at-risk solar projects may now be prompting a full on moratorium.
2. Clark County, Ohio – Another Ohio county has significantly restricted renewable energy development, this time with big political implications.
3. Daviess County, Kentucky – NextEra’s having some problems getting past this county’s setbacks.
4. Columbia County, Georgia – Sometimes the wealthy will just say no to a solar farm.
5. Ottawa County, Michigan – A proposed battery storage facility in the Mitten State looks like it is about to test the state’s new permitting primacy law.
A conversation with Jeff Seidman, a professor at Vassar College.
This week’s conversation is with Jeff Seidman, a professor at Vassar College and an avid Heatmap News reader. Last week Seidman claimed a personal victory: he successfully led an effort to overturn a moratorium on battery storage development in the town of Poughkeepsie in Hudson Valley, New York. After reading a thread about the effort he posted to BlueSky, I reached out to chat about what my readers might learn from his endeavors – and how they could replicate them, should they want to.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
So how did you decide to fight against a battery storage ban? What was your process here?
First of all, I’m not a professional in this area, but I’ve been learning about climate stuff for a long time. I date my education back to when Vox started and I read my first David Roberts column there. But I just happened to hear from someone I know that in the town of Poughkeepsie where I live that a developer made a proposal and local residents who live nearby were up in arms about it. And I heard the town was about to impose a moratorium – this was back in March 2024.
I actually personally know some of the town board members, and we have a Democratic majority who absolutely care about climate change but didn’t particularly know that battery power was important to the energy transition and decarbonizing the grid. So I organized five or six people to go to the town board meeting, wrote a letter, and in that initial board meeting we characterized the reason we were there as being about climate.
There were a lot more people on the other side. They were very angry. So we said do a short moratorium because every day we’re delaying this, peaker plants nearby are spewing SOx and NOx into the air. The status quo has a cost.
But then the other side, they were clearly triggered by the climate stuff and said renewables make the grid more expensive. We’d clearly pressed a button in the culture wars. And then we realized the mistake, because we lost that one.
When you were approaching getting this overturned, what considerations did you make?
After that initial meeting and seeing how those mentions of climate or even renewables had triggered a portion of the board, and the audience, I really course-corrected. I realized we had to make this all about local benefits. So that’s what I tried to do going forward.
Even for people who were climate concerned, it was really clear that what they perceived as a present risk in their neighborhood was way more salient than an abstract thing like contributing to the fight against climate change globally. So even for people potentially on your side, you have to make it about local benefits.
The other thing we did was we called a two-hour forum for the county supervisors and mayor’s association because we realized talking to them in a polarized environment was not a way to have a conversation. I spoke and so did Paul Rogers, a former New York Fire Department lieutenant who is now in fire safety consulting – he sounds like a firefighter and can speak with a credibility that I could never match in front of, for example, local fire chiefs. Winning them over was important. And we took more than an hour of questions.
Stage one was to convince them of why batteries were important. Stage two was to show that a large number of constituents were angry about the moratorium, but that Republicans were putting on a unified front against this – an issue to win votes. So there was a period where Democrats on the Poughkeepsie board were convinced but it was politically difficult for them.
But stage three became helping them do the right thing, even with the risk of there being a political cost.
What would you say to those in other parts of the country who want to do what you did?
If possible, get a zoning law in place before there is any developer with a specific proposal because all of the opposition to this project came from people directly next to the proposed project. Get in there before there’s a specific project site.
Even if you’re in a very blue city, don’t make it primarily about climate. Abstract climate loses to non-abstract perceived risk every time. Make it about local benefits.
To the extent you can, read and educate yourself about what good batteries provide to the grid. There’s a lot of local economic benefits there.
I am trying to put together some of the resources I used into a packet, a tool kit, so that people elsewhere can learn from it and draw from those resources.
Also, the more you know, the better. All those years of reading David Roberts and Heatmap gave me enough knowledge to actually answer questions here. It works especially when you have board members who may be sympathetic but need to be reassured.