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This is the first story in a Heatmap series on the “green freeze” under Trump.
The renewables industry was struggling even before Donald Trump made his return to the White House. High interest rates, snarled supply chains, and inflation had already dealt staggering blows to offshore wind; California turned hostile to the residential solar market; and even as deployment of utility-scale solar accelerated, profits haven’t necessarily followed. (Those were still reserved for the fossil fuel industry.)
Then Trump came into office, issuing a barrage of executive orders that, at best, didn’t help, and at worst threatened to choke off the industry’s remaining avenues for growth. Now, Republican legislators are eyeing the Inflation Reduction Act for red meat to feed their tax cut machine; Elon Musk — himself the richest green tech entrepreneur of all time — is captaining an effort to slash the size of the federal government, particularly environmental programs; and the federal regulatory apparatus has essentially ground to a halt.
The early days of the Trump presidency have turned a clean energy slump into a kind of green freeze, with projects being cancelled and clean energy investors in many cases fixating on hypothetical policy changes, as opposed to the ins and outs of any given quarter. This creates a kind of trap for green energy companies, which are being punished in the immediate term for bad results while investors sit on the sidelines until the final resolution of the IRA comes into focus.
Speaking about the solar industry specifically, Morningstar analyst Brett Castelli told me that near term viability is not going to be about the specifics of any given company’s financial performance. “It’s going to be about how much the IRA is potentially changed.”
That’s likely the case across the green energy sectors. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF, which tracks a number of renewables companies, is down 14% since November 5, and down 20% in the past year. “All businesses like certainty,” Castelli said. “The renewables market right now is facing a high degree of uncertainty in regards to what changes are coming to the IRA.”
But not every company has been affected equally. Those that were already flagging have been quick to blame the political environment, while others have gamely tried to explain to investors and the public how their lines of business align with the Trump administration’s priorities.
Executives at the residential solar company Sunnova — whose stock has fallen to below a dollar a share since it issued a “going concern” notice, essentially notifying investors that its existence as a company was under threat — mentioned “policy” or “political” or “politicians” six times in its earnings call last week. Chief Executive John Berger told an analyst that the reason for the going concern notice was that “the overall environment is terrible. I mean, it’s the political environment, the capital markets,” and that the company “struggled to close some things after the election.”
Berger stepped down Monday, and Sunnova’s former chief operating officer Paul Mathews immediately took over. Mathews “will focus on disciplined growth, stronger cash generation, cost efficiency, and enhancing the customer experience,” the company said.
Other companies have told investors and the public that they’re scrapping expansion plans, in many cases due to a policy change or a market change running downhill from policy.
“Manufacturing is probably where we see the biggest concern,” Maheep Mandloi, a stock analyst at Mizuho Securities, told me. “A lot of solar and battery projects are getting pushed out.”
Among them, battery manufacturer KORE Power, said in February that it was canceling a $1 billion battery project in Arizona. The Arizona facility was going to be supported with federal financing, specifically a loan from the Energy Department’s Loan Program Office for up to $850 million, but the conditional commitment never turned into cash in hand before the end of the Biden administration. Its new chief executive, Jay Bellows, told Canary Media that the company wanted to retrofit an existing facility into a battery plant instead.
Aspen Aerogels, which makes thermal barriers for batteries in electric vehicles, told investors in February that it wouldn’t move forward with a planned new plant in Statesboro, Georgia, and would instead “maximize capacity” at its Rhode Island plant. The company’s chief financial officer noted that it had already “decided to right-time” its Statesboro project in early 2023, “pre-empting a reset in EV demand expectations.”
And just last week, Ascend Elements, a battery materials company, said it was scrapping plans to manufacture cathode active material at its Hopkinsville, Kentucky plant, the Times Leader reported Thursday. Ascend said that it had agreed with the Department of Energy to cancel a $164 million grant that would support cathode active material (a key battery component) manufacturing, although a separate, $316 million grant for cathode precursor technology “remains active.”
But optimism still abounds — and it has nothing to do with any hopes about the fate of grants and tax credits under the IRA. Regardless of the law’s fate, the exuberance over artificial intelligence may prove to be an even greater subsidy.
In contrast to Sunnova, Sunrun — another residential solar company whose stock price has flagged since the election, but whose ability to stay in business has not been questioned — put a much more neutral spin on the political environment. Chief Executive Mary Powell told investors during the company’s earnings call in late February, “The fundamental long-term demand drivers for our business are incredibly strong and unrelated to any political party affiliation. Americans want greater energy independence and control of their lives and their pocketbooks. The country also needs more power from all sources to fuel rapid growth in electrification and data centers, and our growing fleet of energy resources will be part of the solution.”
Where once executives focused their rah-rah optimism on the declining costs of renewables, today they’re talking up their products’ quick path to deployment. The speed with which renewables can be built and switched on — especially solar and storage — compares favorably to the four-to-five year development timelines for new gas-fired plants. NextEra chief executive John Ketchum told analysts in a January earnings call “you can build a wind project in 12 months, a storage facility in 15, and a solar project in 18 months.”
That’s either the light at the end of the tunnel or the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, depending on your level of fatalism or skepticism.
This oncoming demand could reignite the renewables industry even if it potentially loses access to generous IRA subsidies, Ben Hubbard, the chief executive of the infrastructure advisory firm Nexus Holdings, told me.
“The hyperscale datacenter demand is pretty massive, and when you have to really start massively upgrading your transmission and distribution infrastructure, those rates get passed on, unfortunately, to the average ratepayer like me and you and everybody else.” With higher rates, renewables could become profitable and investable on their own, without IRA subsidies, Hubbard said.
NextEra, a major renewables developer that also operates a natural gas fleet, has been one of the main promoters of the “speed to power” narrative. In its January earnings call, Ketchum told analysts, “We’re expecting load demand to increase over 80% over the next five years, six-fold over the next 20 years. And if you think about generation types and needing all of the above, they’re not all created equally in terms of timing.”
Although the Trump administration is seeking to unleash fossil fuel development, power plants don’t build themselves. They need, at the very least, turbines, and those gas turbines are not easy to get your hands on. As Heatmap has reported, manufacturer GE Vernova has only modest plans to increase capacity, and is already getting reservations for turbine slots in 2027 and 2028.
“With gas-fired generation, the country is starting from a standing start,” NextEra CEO Ketchum said on the earnings call. “We need shovels in the ground today because our customers need the power right now.”
Developers and investors hope this means that data center developers and utilities will become both voracious and omnivorous in their power demand.
“I think what you’re going to see is the big tech companies, especially, are going to just have to eat the cost if they want to win the AI race,” Hubbard told me. “They’re going to take natural gas fuel, and they’re going to take biomass power, and they’re going to take solar. They’re going to take it all, because it’s almost insignificant relative to getting ahead of AI demand.”
Most of the industry, however, is gamely working through an environment where their day-to-day business may be fine, but their investors are still in wait-and-see mode.
“The common feedback we hear from a lot of investors is, ‘I’ll just probably come back once the dust settles and I know exactly what things are going to change,” Mandloi told me.
That’s even as executives point to a glorious future of AI-driven electricity demand. But investors may be waiting to count their chips from the IRA before they’re willing to take a flyer on powering data centers that are yet to be built.
And there’s nothing certain about the AI boom, either. More computationally efficient Chinese models have thrown that energy narrative into doubt, driving down the share price of Nvidia, which makes the chips that consume all that data center power (along with the share prices of power companies with large natural gas fleets). That stock is down by almost 20% so far this year. If the chip designer’s AI profits are less than previously thought, the electron providers may have to settle for less, as well. Renewables companies are hoping the data center boom will be a case of “if you build it, they will come,” but investors aren’t yet quite willing to buy it.
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Can a key section of BAAJA be saved from unintended consequences?
Any bipartisan bill to update the nation’s permitting laws was always going to be a compromise, with advantages for the oil and gas industry as well as clean energy. Proponents of the Senate’s latest attempt at permitting reform have painted it as a delicate balance, a hard-won opportunity, and an all-or-nothing deal.
What, then, to make of drafting errors, or unintended consequences?
In the weeks since senators released the text of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, lawyers have been doing what lawyers often do, which is scour the bill for loopholes and ambiguous language. Many have raised concerns about the risks of one section in particular titled “Project Certainty” that’s designed to prevent presidents from discriminating against projects they dislike, such as by throttling projects that are already under construction, or outright refusing to permit certain types of energy — both of which Trump has tried to do to wind farms.
The red flags range from what were clearly accidental oversights, like that the bill would exempt projects that have obtained all their permits from complying with future regulations, to much more nitpicky, hypothetical issues, like that it might enable a company to orchestrate a permitting delay in order to win a big payout in court.
The question now in front of Senate negotiators before they put the whole package to a vote on November 9 is which of these issues are possible, or even desirable, to address in an amendment without destabilizing the whole package.
“I think there are legitimate legal readings of the bill that are not what was intended, and I think those are where you can make technical fixes,” Nat Keohane, the president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, which supports the bill, told me. “I think there’s some of it that was worked out as part of the broader package that was negotiated over months. And so, which things fall into which bin? That’s up to the authors.”
It’s no secret that getting politics out of permitting was table stakes for the bill’s Democratic authors, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico. Neither responded to questions about whether they were aware of critics’ concerns about these provisions or open to revising the language, although many sources I spoke to for this story told me they were aware of efforts underway on the Hill to make corrections to this section.
Heinrich’s office instead forwarded my inquiry to the American Council on Renewable Energy. In an interview, ACORE’s CEO Ray Long argued that some of the concerns lawyers have raised are valid, and tweaks and technical corrections are “fine” — but only if they don’t hold back the bill from a vote this year. He stressed that between the bipartisan permitting bill debated by the previous Congress and BAAJA, the Hill has been working on this issue for four years. “I think we should stop trying to make this bill perfect,” he said. “Consider it for what it is, which is a well-intentioned bill on both sides to get to a compromise that addresses a whole range of things and move forward with that.”
The “Project Certainty” section of the bill has two key components that critics are concerned about. The first is a set of provisions meant to prevent an administration from yanking permits or otherwise messing with projects that have all of their approvals, such as when the Trump administration revoked the Lava Ridge wind farm’s right-of-way, or when it issued stop-work orders on five offshore wind farms that were under construction.
The main issue here is that the text is written very broadly. It doesn’t just say that agencies can’t revoke permits; it says they can’t take any action “to interfere with or prevent the construction or operation at full capacity of a project” that has secured all of its federal approvals.
“That ‘operation at full capacity’ language seems to prevent any future action that could require existing facilities to modernize their technology or take steps to reduce their pollution,” Liz Zeleda, the federal regulatory director at the Southern Environmental Law Center, told me.
Of all the issues critics of the bill have raised, this one seems to have pretty unanimous support for a correction. “Nobody, I think, wanted to negotiate some kind of regulatory freeze here, and it’s a pretty clear technical fix,” Jane Flegal, a senior fellow at the Searchlight Institute, told me. “I have confidence that the negotiators will fix it.”
Then there are concerns that the bill would render any permits or authorizations issued by the Trump administration irrevocable, even if they were issued illegally. John Podesta, Biden’s former senior climate advisor, recently raised that possibility during a fireside chat at the University of Colorado Boulder. “They’re going to have a permit gorge like you’ve never seen, not really caring about whether they’re going through the legal steps to do it, and under this bill that’s not going to be reversed,” he said. His comments quickly ignited a fierce debate on social media over whether this was an accurate reading of the text.
The bill does list several exceptions that would allow agencies to revoke permits or authorizations, such as under a court order, or when the developer has violated the terms of the permit or another applicable law, or if the developer obtained the permit under false pretenses, or if revoking the permit is necessary to prevent imminent harms that were not identified in the original review process. Notably, “when the government’s authorization violates the law” is not on the list.
Nonetheless, a harmed party would still be able to make the case that Trump violated the Administrative Procedure Act in issuing a permit and get a court to vacate it, Ben Schifman, a senior technology fellow at the Institute for Progress and former Department of Justice lawyer, told me. The only edge case where that would not be true, as far as he can tell, is if the sole legal infraction in the permitting process was a violation of the National Environmental Policy Act or the National Historic Preservation Act, and no other applicable law. In that situation, the bill would, in fact, restrict the court from vacating the permit. However, a case like that is unusual, he said. “I will tell you, in all of my 10 years of practicing this kind of law at DOJ, it was very rare, and I’m struggling to think if there was even a single case that literally only brought one claim that was a NEPA claim.”
On the other hand, Sambhav Sankar, the senior vice president of programs at Earthjustice, argues that this interpretation assumes groups like his have the means to challenge all of the potentially illegal permitting decisions Trump makes. “We don’t have anywhere near the resources required,” he wrote in a blog post about Podesta’s comments, “and this legislation is explicitly aimed at making our challenges much harder to bring.” It’s not like the next administration will be able to sue itself to get a court order to vacate permits, he noted.
When I asked Schifman about this, he suggested the agency might be able to sue the permit holder, but admitted this was an ambiguity in the bill and “a good candidate for a few-word technical amendment.”
The second component of the “Project Certainty” title that’s raising alarm is a series of provisions meant to prevent unfair delays or denials for projects trying to obtain permits. The Trump administration, for example, has subjected wind and solar projects applying for permits to heightened reviews at the Interior Department, and simply stopped providing Department of Defense clearances to wind farms altogether.
The bill sets up a new legal pathway for project developers to sue the government for delaying or denying permits if they can demonstrate they are being targeted as part of a larger “pattern of disparate treatment.” To bring such a case, the developer would have to show its specific project type — a wind farm, for example — has seen a “substantial increase” in delays or denials compared to the previous five years. It may, but doesn’t have to, also produce supporting evidence, such as statements made by federal officials demonstrating a bias.
The choice of five years is the first thing that caught lawyers’ attention. Shortly after the bill came out, Matthew Littleton, a former deputy assistant attorney general at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Environment and Natural Resources Division, argued on LinkedIn that this baseline would be unlikely to help clean energy projects in the near term, since once the law goes into effect, the preceding five years will be dominated by Trump administration obstruction.
If you’re optimistic that the next administration will be less hostile to renewable energy, that’s only a short-term problem. But by that same token, imagine a Democrat takes the White House in 2029, and for entirely legal reasons, their administration rejects more natural gas plant permits than Trump did. Perhaps the previous Environmental Protection Agency didn’t account for some newly significant risk. Under BAAJA, developers would have grounds to sue the government for exhibiting a “pattern of disparate treatment.”
While the choice of five years has been debated, a lot of the risks with this provision actually stem from the bill’s limits on what the government can do to defend its actions. While the text gestures at “improper” denials, “unreasonable” delays, and a show of government intent, it doesn’t actually require the plaintiff to prove any of those things to win a case. It specifically limits the court’s review to three things: the evidence produced by the project sponsor; the administrative record for the particular project in question (i.e. the permit application and agency response); and raw, statistical data from the government showing the number of projects of the same type that received approvals over the past year compared to the previous five, as well as the number that received denials or got delayed.
Per Littleton’s interpretation, the developer need not prove the agency acted in bad faith, and the court can’t even take into account a potentially well-reasoned explanation by the government for why the data display a certain pattern. Schifman mostly agreed with this, but noted that it’s possible the administrative record would contain evidence about why the disparity occurred.
It’s possible that technical fixes to this section requiring “credible evidence of intentional targeting” for claims and that courts review the entire evidentiary record, as the Natural Resources Defense Council has suggested, could go a long way toward addressing this issue. Scholars at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy have recommended limiting these claims to delays, which are tied to clear timing benchmarks, and removing the provision for denials. “Courts can already overturn unlawful denials, so the denial provision adds little protection while creating most of the risk,” they wrote.
But there are other complications.
The bill specifies that if a developer wins a “disparate treatment” case, the government has to fork over 50% to 100% of the project’s total costs, in addition to any attorney fees and monetary damages resulting from the permitting delay or denial.
Justin Pidot, a law professor at the University of Arizona who served as General Counsel to Biden’s Council on Environmental Quality, told me that this could have the effect of “putting handcuffs on the government,” in that agencies will be under pressure to make decisions that avoid a legal challenge. That is, of course, the point of the provision, but to Pidot, it impinges too much on agency discretion. The Columbia scholars raised this concern as well, writing, “Facing that risk, agencies may approve projects they would otherwise reject, potentially including projects they consider unsafe.”
At the same time, the prospect of such a big payout may tempt developers to test agencies’ limits. “It just creates all sorts of perverse incentives,” Pidot said. “In that world, a project sponsor would be wise to try to figure out how to get the government to delay approving their projects so that they could bring this lawsuit.”
What’s more, the project sponsor is only allowed to keep its winnings if it actually completes the project, but nothing in BAAJA requires the government to approve a permit in these cases. A court might order an agency to make a decision on a delayed permit or reconsider an application it rejected, but the administration could just go on delaying or denying the project until the developer runs out of financing and can’t hold on any longer.
“As far as I can tell, if you have to abandon the project before you can build it, you don't get anything,” Littleton said. “I'm just sort of flummoxed by the way this is set up.”
While everyone I spoke to seemed to agree that the project certainty title in the bill could use some redlining, there was a split between those who believed small “technical fixes” would do the trick and those who were skeptical the provisions would be successful without an overhaul.
The Environmental Protection Network, a group of former EPA staffers, recently published a number of suggested technical changes to improve the section on revoking existing permits. They called for adding several more exceptions for when an agency can revoke or amend a permit, such as when the action is “authorized by Federal law and brought by the Federal department or agency alleging a violation of Federal law.” The challenge with adding more exceptions is that it will give the government more wiggle room to justify revoking permits — a slippery slope.
EPN also suggested adding a clause specifying that “nothing in this title affects the applicability of any requirement under” the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act, and the like, and protecting taxpayers “from potentially hundreds of billions of dollars” in fines paid out to litigants by limiting the financial remedies to “actual damages and court costs.”
The NRDC suggested changing the five-year baseline in the disparate treatment section, and eliminating the “disproportionate” stipulated financial awards, although it did not specify how. The Columbia scholars urged Congress to consider tying the financial awards “more closely to a developer’s actual losses while keeping enough of a penalty to deter deliberate abuse.”
While these kinds of changes may “curb some of the worst excesses” of the project certainty provisions, Littleton told me, that’s not his preferred outcome. “Ultimately, I think they need to be rethought in order to accomplish their purpose.”
Long, of ACORE, held that concerns about project certainty “aren’t a reason to hold up all the work that’s been done so far,” and suggested that Congress could pass a corrections bill down the line should they turn out to be real problems.
One funny thing about this “project certainty” part of the permitting bill is that critics and proponents both seem to accept that there is no foolproof way to stop a president who is truly hell-bent on messing with an industry from doing so. The question is, is it worth trying?
Power line permitting was overdue for an overhaul. Here’s what the bill would unlock.
As the intra-Democratic fight over permitting reform gets ever more intense, with objections piling up from tribes, elected officials, and environmental groups, one thing everyone seems to agree on is that the transmission provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 are a good idea.
One major environmental group, the Natural Resources Defense Council, “still sees great benefit in the transmission language that was negotiated,” its executive director Christy Goldfuss posted on X on Wednesday, hours after warning about other provisions in the bill. Former Biden climate advisor John Podesta lauded the bill’s “needed reforms on transmission” as “pretty good” and “pretty strong” before criticizing other elements, while Holly Bender of the Sierra Club listed the section as an example of “policies we’ve championed before.”
And while clean energy industry groups support the bill wholeheartedly, they overlap with the critical environmentalists in their enthusiasm for transmission.
“The transmission provisions in BAAJA are essential to deploying more clean energy,” a coalition of five clean energy trade groups said in a letter to congressional leaders. Climate philanthropist and investor Tom Steyer wrote that the bill’s expanded transmission siting authority “means more power lines carrying more affordable energy to more people across America … which means lower bills for all of us.”
When New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich, one of the two Democratic co-authors of the bill, first presented it to the public about a month ago, he opened with a discussion of the SunZia transmission project, a 550-mile transmission line designed to bring a staggering amount of wind power — 3.6 gigawatts, more electricity than the Hoover Dam generates and the largest renewable project in the country — from New Mexico to Arizona and California. “That transmission line,” Heinrich said, “took 17 years to permit and build. That’s why I’m here today, because I was part of that process, which should have taken probably five years … We need to be able to build big things in this country again.”
“Right now, clean, affordable energy is stuck waiting for transmission lines that take a decade or more to build, leaving Americans to pay sky-high utility bills,” Heinrich added in an emailed statement.
For years, climate and energy experts have pointed to transmission as the sine qua non of a renewable buildout, because clean energy generation is sited where the rocks are hot (like Utah), or the sun shines (like Nevada), or the wind blows (like New Mexico), and that’s not necessarily where the people consuming the electricity are (California).
“There’s effectively no way to have a high penetration renewable grid without a lot more regional and interregional transmission,” David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, told me. (He also spoke at length to my colleague Robinson Meyer about the transmission section of the bill on this week’s episode of Shift Key.)
And beyond the specifics of the bill, a bipartisan Congressional vote and presidential signature “would be an expression of the national sentiment that, for a whole variety of reasons, we need a better grid in the U.S.,” Michael Skelly, the co-founder and chief executive of the transmission developer Grid United, told me.
For wind energy especially, which is quite sensitive to siting, transmission investments allow it to be “more competitive compared to some of the other technologies,” said Aaron Bergman of the energy research group RFF, which released modeling showing BAAJA reducing emissions compared to the status quo through 2041. “I confess before we did this, I actually did not expect to see the effect we saw,” Bergman said, referring to the emissions reductions.
That modeling also found overall transmission capacity in the U.S. growing by over 30% by 2041 and that “interregional capacity specifically is projected to grow by 10 to15 gigawatts per year between 2032 and 2041, leading to a rough doubling of capacity over the period modeled.”
But actually building that transmission requires the type of overhaul of transmission planning that’s been attempted for over 25 years with little success.
So what does BAAJA actually do?
First of all, it codifies — and therefore protects from legal challenge — existing orders by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission around transmission planning and requires regular transmission planning within and among regions.
“If you want a better grid in America, this is a hell of a bill to make that happen because it requires interregional planning,” Skelly said. “Those provisions are very, very helpful, and I think they’ll encourage a lot of activity in the transmission sector,” he added, referring to how the bill puts in place mechanisms for regions to coordinate development of power lines and come up with a consistent way to allocate their costs.
It also gives more power to transmission developers to drive the process for siting and approving lines. FERC would be required to issue permits to interstate high-voltage lines (or lines using advanced conductoring) that meet certain public interest criteria after states get a year to act on a permit application. If BAAJA passed, FERC would also have to issue permits to lines that meet a national interest, reliability, and voltage criteria. For even higher voltage lines, transmission developers can apply for federal permits in parallel with the state permit, shortening the permitting timeline.
The law also puts some muscle behind the perennial critique that utilities are overinvesting in transmission that’s less useful to the whole system. BAAJA would allow states to refer utilities to FERC to be investigated for not picking cost-effective projects.
If FERC determines that a utility’s planning is making it harder for regional transmission to get built, FERC could subsequently dock a utility’s return on equity and remove discretion from the utility for planning or even issue fines.
FERC had tried to coax utilities into building more transmission back in 2011. But when it issued an order to begin a competitive process for building new lines, it added exceptions for immediate reliability needs or building lines in your local territory. This loophole “resulted in what was just mass gaming to the point where around 90% of the transmission built by utilities in the country over the last decade plus has fallen into those two categories,” Daniel Palken, director of infrastructure at Arnold Ventures, told me. “So you’ve avoided building large-scale, efficient, economically driven transmission, and you’ve instead built incremental band-aids.”
The bill both writes down these planning provisions into statute and provides real backstops for FERC to approve lines and exercise oversight over utilities.
“You’re talking about lines that can stretch across electricity markets, across utility jurisdictions. The sense among pretty much all electric system advocates is our current legal structure, for one reason or another, is totally insufficient to the task,” Chirag Lala, vice president of research and chief economist at the Center for Public Enterprise, told me.
There is also the actual permitting reform part of the permitting reform bill, which may have some of the most outsize effects on transmission lines, which are notoriously hard to permit due to the number of territories they run through. In the West, where transmission is often the most needed to connect far-flung resources like wind, solar, and geothermal to large urban areas, transmission lines almost inevitably trip up the National Environmental Policy Act and the National Historic Preservation Act as they traverse public lands.
Transmission projects would see the largest time savings from the bill, according to an analysis by Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh for Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Some of the biggest time savers come from FERC’s expanded ability to approve lines and in running National Historic Preservation Act reviews concurrently with the Environmental Impact Statement required by the National Environmental Policy Act.
SunZia especially had an extremely drawn-out NHPA process that continued past the completion of construction of the line.
So where would these highly planned and permitted lines actually go?
“Interregional planning has worked nowhere in the country in the last 15 years,” said Palken, and while there has been some regional planning, the Intermountain West could be a prime candidate going forward.
Two of the bill’s authors, Republican Senator Mike Lee and Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich, represent the energy-rich adjacent states of Utah and New Mexico, respectively. The governors of Nevada and Utah, both Republicans, have endorsed the bill, while the governor of New Mexico, a Democrat, has not.
“The Intermountain West is both a growth region and a growth region that has seen virtually no transmission come out of FERC's existing processes,” Palken said.
One potential beneficiary of transmission investments in the West would be geothermal developers like Fervo. A recent short seller report identified transmission access as one of the reasons to doubt the company’s prospects, as it will require it to connect to customers in California. Jefferies analysts described transmission as an “execution item” for the company and noted that Fervo is “still working to secure roughly 100 MW” to serve Google as part of an offtake deal.
More generally, for there to be any hope that new load (i.e. data centers) could be served by a clean grid, more transmission investment will be needed. “A lot of what we’re building now is wind and solar and, inherently, whatever you’re building more of needs the new transmission,” Pomerantz said.
While experts have been criticizing the existing transmission planning system for as long as it’s been cobbled together, it took increased demand on the entire grid to spur at least the potential of bipartisan agreement on transmission planning reform.
Transmission has long been tagged in energy policy circles as a Democratic priority because more long-range transmission could threaten utilities’ existing business models (and utilities were seen as quite influential among Republicans) and because transmission investments are needed to fully unlock wind and solar potential across the country, which Democrats tend to want to favor (and subsidize).
Two things changed: load growth and rising electricity rates. “People are growing frustrated with utilities,” Travis Fisher, director of energy and environmental policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, citing both rising costs and data-center-related investments leaking onto residential ratepayers’ bills.
“There’s a lot of scrutiny on returns on investment. There’s this local transmission issue where there has really been a bipartisan sense among state and federal regulators that utilities have maybe gotten away with a lot of spending with almost no oversight from the state or federal government, and that, at a minimum, deserves looking into,” Palken said.
And with higher electricity demand, new transmission isn’t just about reallocating demand towards new resources, but letting everyone connect to the grid. “It’s very clear that load growth is here to stay. So there’s a pro-industry argument for expanded transmission now that we didn’t necessarily have before,” Fisher told me.
Fisher also cited the sunsetting of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies for wind and solar as another reason why Republicans could sign on to the transmission title — there was less fear that the new transmission projects would supercharge the IRA’s subsidies.
“If you make it significantly easier to build long-range, high-voltage transmission lines, that is going to make it easier to put renewables on the grid,” Fisher told me. “I don't think that's inherently bad, and you shouldn't oppose that if you’re a technology-neutral advocate like I am. But it does change the calculus when there’s significant subsidies on the table.”
And even if, say, wind power isn’t getting subsidies, new transmission investments could make them more economically viable.
“Even absent further policies, transmission is very valuable for wind and it could lead to greater deployment and reductions in emissions,” Bergman said.
On an NRC acceptance, Deb Haaland’s rejection, and Texas’ win over Chinese solar
Current conditions: Temperatures at the supposedly cursed Bhangarh Fort in Rajasthan, India — considered one of the most “haunted” places in Asia — are projected to climb north of 80 degrees Fahrenheit on Halloween • The sun is shining all weekend in Oaxaca, Mexico, known for its vibrant Día de los Muertos celebrations, set to start on Sunday • As the New York City marathon kicks off Sunday morning, temperatures could top 63 degrees Fahrenheit, five degrees above the historical average.
Fossil-fueled power plants to run artificial intelligence data centers are set to emit 460 million metric tons of carbon dioxide by the end of this decade — roughly equal to the climate-changing pollution from the entire economy of Mexico (which, by the way, is lagging behind the rest of Latin America on clean energy). That’s according to a new Sierra Club analysis published Thursday on Bloomberg. The emissions are set to “undo 15 years’ worth of greenhouse gas reductions from U.S. electricity generation.” The U.S. power sector is on track to emit 2.1 billion metric tons of carbon by 2030, a 618 million-ton increase from 2025 levels. “The numbers continue to sort of boggle our minds,” Jeremy Fisher, the Sierra Club’s principal advisor for climate and energy, told the newswire.
The latest polling from Heatmap Pro shows that public opposition to data centers has plateaued. But signs of the backlash were clear from Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry’s latest effort to condition lucrative tax breaks for data centers and start referring to the facilities as “digital factories,” according to The New Orleans Times-Picayune.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill has threatened to block tankers carrying Russian diesel from offloading the fuel at her state’s ports, the largest petroleum import hub on the U.S. East Coast. In an interview with the Financial Times, the Democrat said President Donald Trump’s deal with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin would boost the Kremlin’s war coffers at “the expense of American consumers and our democratic ally Ukraine.” She continued: “Donald Trump isn’t doing anything to bring down prices, diesel prices or costs. Trump’s diesel deal with Putin is corrupt and illegal, and I am evaluating options to stop it from arriving at a port in New Jersey.” Russia, meanwhile, is poised to extend its own ban on diesel exports until the end of the year even as the Kremlin makes exceptions for shipments to the U.S., Reuters reported.
Speaking of Russian energy imports: I had an exclusive from yesterday afternoon you may have missed. General Matter, the nuclear enrichment startup founded by one of SpaceX’s first employees, took a big step toward starting construction on its facility at a Department of Energy-owned Superfund site in Kentucky. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted the first major application from the startup in half the time the agency usually takes. The company, backed by both billionaire Peter Thiel and former White House climate czar John Kerry, told me it expects to have its license by next year, allowing construction to begin before 2028. If all goes according to plan, the Los Angeles-headquartered firm could start selling reactor fuel by 2029, a year after federal law bans all imports of Russian uranium.
A month ago, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission told PJM Interconnection to go back and do more work on its proposed special procurement of electricity generation designed to fill the 6,800-megawatt shortfall from its latest capacity auction. That procurement was originally scheduled for September 30. Now the country’s second-largest electricity market proposes that the special procurement happen on March 1 as a result of the delay.
As requested by FERC, PJM revamped plans to allocate costs from the auction, saying that costs will be assigned based on growth between this summer’s peak and its forecast for 2028-29, meaning that the areas that expect the most load growth will bear the brunt of the costs from procuring the power. What remains to be seen is how FERC responds. The Commission has had choice words for PJM recently, with its chair calling the first proposal a “mess.” – Matthew Zeitlin
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Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland announced her opposition Thursday to the bipartisan permitting reform deal. In an interview with Politico reporter Nico Portuondo, the first Native American to serve as a U.S. Cabinet secretary and an enrolled member of the Pueblo of Laguna said she sided with the mounting number of tribal groups urging Congress to change or abandon the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. Among the top concerns raised by several such groups: the fate of Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act. Long considered a tool for tribes to have a say over federal projects affecting land near reservations or at cultural sites, the changes proposed in BAAJA would come at “the expense of Tribal sovereignty, consultation, sacred places, or cultural heritage that Section 106 was enacted to protect,” according to the National Association of Tribal Historic Preservation Officers.
Supporters of the bill, meanwhile, had fresh evidence to point to on Thursday of its benefits. A new analysis by Resources for the Future, the 74-year-old nonprofit think tank focused on research into energy and natural resources, found that passing BAAJA would increase long-distance transmission infrastructure 30% by 2041. Interregional transmission capacity “more than doubles.” Electricity costs overall would drop by between 3.5% and 7% over the same period. One complicating factor is the report’s outlook emissions. While RFF projected a near-term drop in emissions of roughly 200 million metric tons, it sees emissions from the power sector growing over the next 15 years. If the bill becomes law, RFF found, the sector’s emissions would still end up 1.8 billion metric tons lower than the baseline scenario.
In 2024, GH America Energy, a Texas LLC and subsidiary of a Chinese company, sued the Electric Reliability Council of Texas after the state’s grid operator canceled the pending interconnection application for a project in Val Verde County near the Mexican border. The developer had been eyeing a number of renewable energy projects in the state when lawmakers passed the Texas Lone Star Infrastructure Act in 2021, banning foreign-owned companies from hooking up to critical infrastructure networks. Three years later, ERCOT cited the law to toss GH America’s application. The company, in turn, argued that federal law preempted the Texas restrictions. On Thursday, Utility Dive reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit had ruled this month that Texas has a “free lane” to restrict foreign-owned companies within its borders, in much the same way states impose environmental or health standards without running afoul of federal law.
In Houston, meanwhile, the fully U.S.-owned SEG Solar told Reuters it had secured land for a $950 million solar cell facility. The plant would add 4 gigawatts of annual capacity to churn out heterojunction, or HJT, cells. The hybrid cells layer thin film cells on crystalline solar cells to maximize the benefits of both technologies.
The European Union plans to delay some of its controversial green hydrogen production rules in response to “slower-than-expected expansion of the hydrogen market,” Hydrogen Insight reported. The chastened outlook couldn’t be farther from what’s going on in China. As dedicated readers of this newsletter know, Chinese investments into green hydrogen have soared in recent years — and yielded breakthroughs. My colleague Katie Brigham has a story I had been wanting to read for months, describing how China’s grip over the electrolyzer industry was tightening, and what that means for green hydrogen going forward.