You’ve reached your free article limit
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
Sign In or Create an Account.
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Welcome to Heatmap
Thank you for registering with Heatmap. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our lives, a force reshaping our economy, our politics, and our culture. We hope to be your trusted, friendly, and insightful guide to that transformation. Please enjoy your free articles. You can check your profile here .
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Subscribe to get unlimited Access
Hey, you are out of free articles but you are only a few clicks away from full access. Subscribe below and take advantage of our introductory offer.
subscribe to get Unlimited access
Offer for a Heatmap News Unlimited Access subscription; please note that your subscription will renew automatically unless you cancel prior to renewal. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period. We will let you know in advance of any price changes. Taxes may apply. Offer terms are subject to change.
Create Your Account
Please Enter Your Password
Forgot your password?
Please enter the email address you use for your account so we can send you a link to reset your password:
Here’s where the Biden administration’s climate spending has gone so far.

All across the United States, grant money from the Inflation Reduction Act has begun to flow.
There’s more than $100 million for protecting the Pacific Ocean’s salmon and steelhead fisheries.
Hundreds of millions more to plant urban canopies in Atlanta, Phoenix, and dozens of other cities.
$1 billion for two new weather research ships for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and tens of millions for mapping the best “fuel breaks” — roads, rivers, and other natural features that will slow wildfires in Colorado, Wyoming, and other states.
The Biden administration has begun the gargantuan work of spending down the more than $110 billion in grant funding in the new climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. It is in a race to spend as much of the money as it can in the next year — before a potential change of administration in 2025 and before climate change gets any worse.
Sign up to receive updates on Heatmap’s database of federal climate spending:
That effort is about 10% complete. The government has disbursed about $11.8 billion in grants, rebates, and other funding in law, according to an analysis conducted by Heatmap.
The spending is expected to pick up in the next year as the administration accelerates its efforts to get money out the door.
The grants are not the only source of funding from the climate law. The IRA contains three new pots of money: grants and rebates, new loans from the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, and tax credits for clean energy.
The tax credits are the bill’s centerpiece and largest source of funding in the law. They are meant to incentivize people and businesses to switch to clean energy and other climate-friendly technologies. Although they could eventually disburse more than $1 trillion into the economy, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate, we do not yet have public data on their takeup.
The Loan Programs Office, meanwhile, has sent out more than $13 billion in loans to help build new electric-vehicle and battery plants since the law’s passage.
Grants and rebates make up the IRA’s third plank — and one of the largest portions of publicly available funding from the law. They are our first glance at how the law is working.
So far, most of the $11.5 billion in IRA funding already awarded by the Biden administration have gone to pre-existing federal programs or to expand government capacity. The money has decarbonized federal buildings, for instance, or been spent to hire more conservation scientists.
You can see that in the agency that has sent out more IRA-funded grants than any other: the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which has disbursed nearly $3.4 billion from the law this year. That money has largely funded pre-existing agricultural programs, such as the Conservation Stewardship Program, that have now been rewritten to boost “climate-smart agriculture.”
The law’s second-largest tranche of money has gone to the U.S. Postal Service to buy electric delivery vehicles. Although that money has been transferred to the agency, most of it remains unspent. The Postal Service plans to buy 66,000 electric vehicles through 2028 as it moves to an all-electric fleet.
Another $2.4 billion has gone to the Energy Department, which has used the funding to upgrade national labs, including in Idaho, Oregon, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
By comparison, the government has sent out relatively little money from new programs established by the IRA.
That is most evident from the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA has yet to start making grants from its $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, for instance, a multi-purpose fund which will eventually help capitalize dozens of green banks and provide loans to cut the cost of rooftop solar.
The EPA has also yet to disburse money from its new programs to reduce air pollution from ports, cut methane emissions from oil-and-gas infrastructure, and help environmental-justice organizations.
The IRA also provided nearly $10 billion to the USDA to help rural electric cooperatives decarbonize their power plants; that money has yet to flow as well.
In a statement, the White House said that it had launched about two-thirds of the grant and rebate programs in the IRA, totaling more than $70 billion. (In other words, it may have opened up applications to receive funding from those programs, but not yet awarded any money from them.)
“It's a pace we’re proud of, especially since many programs in the Inflation Reduction Act are being set up from scratch,” Michael Kikukawa, a White Housethe spokesman, said. “These programs are investing in communities, creating good-paying jobs in the clean energy economy, and tackling the climate crisis in every corner of the country.”
Advocates said that the pace of funding would likely pick up over the next few years.
“Given that we have spent the past year working with the Biden administration standing up these grant programs, it’s really not surprising at all that we haven’t seen the eventual pace this bill will reach in the first year,” Holly Burke, communications director for Evergreen, a nonprofit that fights for and advises on federal climate policy, told me. “It does leave us the challenge of running in 2024 on a bill that has only begun to deliver on its promise.”
Among Democrats, some concern persists that the government is not spending the funding fast enough.
Perhaps the easiest place to see this worry is in Democrats’ growing anxiety about the IRA’s home-upgrade rebates, which are administered by the Department of Energy.
These programs are meant to help Americans buy climate-friendly appliances — such as heat pumps, induction stoves, and smart breaker boxes — as well as insulate and weatherize their homes. Last month, dozens of Democratic lawmakers wrote to the Energy Department, asking for a faster rollout of the program.
Democrats love these programs, which rank among the law’s most consumer-facing policies. When President Joe Biden signed the IRA last year, he mentioned these rebate programs before any other policy.
The IRA was “about showing … the American people that democracy still works in America,” Biden said at the time. “It’s going to offer working families thousands of dollars in savings by providing them rebates to buy new and efficient appliances, weatherize their homes.”
But the rebate programs have taken longer to implement than Democrats once hoped. There are two rebate programs in the IRA — one focused on efficiency and weatherization, the other on electrification — and the rules governing them have yet to be finalized by a Department of Energy office. Even though states will eventually administer those rebate programs, few states have received funding even to start up their programs.
At this point, most states will probably launch their rebate programs around the middle of next year, Andy Frank, the chief executive of Sealed, a home-retrofit company, told me.
Some states might lag beyond that. In Georgia, state officials have warned they are aiming to launch by September 30, 2024, at the latest.
Companies, too, are starting to get nervous about the slower pace. Because consumers know that the rebates are on the way, they’re delaying buying new appliances or updating their home insulation, Arch Rao, the chief executive of Span, which makes a new kind of circuit-breaker panel, told me.
That caution is hurting contractors and other installers at exactly the moment that they should be staffing up and preparing for a surge in demand.
“Homeowners are saying, ‘Wait, if rebates are going to be imminently available, then we’re going to wait to decarbonize.’ But contractors can’t plan for that,” Rao said, who was previously a head of product at Tesla. “Supply and demand are being built, but coordination between the two isn’t happening.”
“The Department of Energy is laser focused on cutting costs for working families and businesses through the historic consumer rebates program made available by President Biden’s Investing in America agenda,” Charisma Troiano, a Department of Energy spokeswoman, told me.
“We are working with states to help them move as fast as they are ready to, and look forward to continuing the work of helping American families keep more money in their pockets with an energy efficient and electrified home.”
At least one other IRA rebate program is meant to solve some of these problems: a $200 million program meant to train home contractors to install heat pumps and other home efficiency measures. The program will start awarding grants on November 1.
Sign up to receive updates on Heatmap’s database of federal climate spending:
Log in
To continue reading, log in to your account.
Create a Free Account
To unlock more free articles, please create a free account.
The Iran war has been a gift to the country’s vehicle, solar, and battery business.
This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday evening digest written by our executive editor.
Happy Monday and welcome back. For months now, we’ve been talking about how the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran has been a boon for electric vehicles, clean energy, and (unfortunately) coal.
But today we got data that confirms: This clean energy export boom is not just a side story. It is one of the brighter spots in the overall Chinese economy, which remains the world’s second largest.
According to economic data released on Monday, China grew 4.5% during the summer quarter as compared to the quarter from a year earlier. That means the country will likely hit its growth target this year, albeit on the low end.
The country’s economic expansion wasn’t driven by domestic consumption, however. Consumer confidence remains low, and residential investment has yet to return after the property crash earlier this decade.
Instead, booming exports are now driving China’s economy. Exports were more than 36% higher in September than a year earlier, driven by chips, ships, electric vehicles, and solar panels and batteries. The country will likely record its biggest trade surplus ever this year.
Some of those categories are clearly flourishing thanks to the global AI boom — think chips and even batteries. But the preponderance of vehicle exports suggests surging oil prices aren’t hurting. Sales of ‘new energy vehicles,’ a category that includes 100% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, were up more than 13% on a year-over-year basis in September, according to the Chinese car manufacturer’s trade group. But exports of these vehicles are booming. Battery electric vehicles were up 130% last month compared to the same period in 2025, and plug-in hybrid exports were up more than 200%.
It’s interesting to consider how much the Chinese and U.S. economy are mirroring each other at this moment. Americans are dealing with a remarkable investment boom, which is buoying the labor market and stubbornly maintaining high inflationary pressure. China is struggling with deflation, and exports are its quickest path to growth. (Consumer sentiment in both countries, interestingly, seems to be in the doldrums, even though American consumers appear to be in much better shape.)
When thinking about what artificial intelligence could do for the United States over the next decade, some subject-matter prognosticators (and even some Anthropic employees) imagine a world of 4%, 5%, or even 7% GDP growth. Such a growth rate is difficult even to envision in the modern era, of course, and it seems like it could propel the U.S. economy to staggering prosperity.
I know better than to make a prediction about where we’re headed. But amateur economic commentators should keep China in mind, too: a country that dominates along many technological axes, but where the standard economic math of supply, demand, and consumer sentiment still holds. Except if the United States economy were to stumble, no exterior source of demand will come to our rescue.
Endurance Energy hoped its generator would run for a full year, but the team isn’t afraid of the “error” in “trial and error.”
About 300 miles off the Oregon coast, a mile beneath the ocean’s surface, a startup just drilled the world’s first subsea geothermal well. And for a grand total of exactly 8.7 seconds, its prototype power plant generated about 2 kilowatts of net power. It wasn’t quite the result the Seattle-based Endurance Energy was hoping for — the company’s goal was to run its 100-kilowatt generator for a full year. But it’s not nothing.
“We really proved with this mission that a geothermal well could be drilled and completed on the seafloor, and doing that within 21 months of the company existing I think is really a testament to our pace of progress,” Endurance CEO Andrew Redd told me.
A former SpaceX engineer — as so many climate tech founders seem to be — Redd appears quite comfortable with the rapid trial-and-error cycles that hard tech startups often demand. Or as he stated in the company’s press release, which provides a refreshingly frank account of what this first test did and didn’t accomplish, “We follow the adage ‘make it exist, then make it good.’”
Investors seem to be buying it. In June, the startup raised a $54 million Series A, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund — Endurance’s second funding round in less than two years of existence. Still, the team certainly has their work cut out for them. The ocean is a notoriously difficult operating environment: Saltwater is corrosive and offshore infrastructure is difficult and expensive to build, maintain, and repair.
Indeed, Endurance spent the first 11 days of its three-week stint at sea debugging its drill, which the team had never operated underwater before. But with a vessel chartered and a locked-in deployment date, the company couldn’t afford to wait for everything to work out perfectly. “We were still working on that generator hours before it got on the seafloor,” Redd told me. He’s used to that sort of thing, though, comparing it to making final tweaks to rockets already sitting on the launchpad. “That’s kind of the name of the game,” he said.
The trial took place at Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano and the only place in the world with a cluster of hydrothermal vents connected to shore by fiber optic cable, which allows the Endurance team to monitor and control its system in real time from Seattle. While this was the company’s fifth deep-sea mission, it was the team’s first attempt to actually drill their own well.
After lowering their drill about a mile below the surface, the team bored two holes and turned the second into a well about 2 inches wide, lining it with pipe and sealing it with cement. But after losing so much time to debugging, the team only managed to drill about 52 feet deep — far short of its original 200-foot target.
Water then flowed up the well at about 260 degrees Celsius (around 500 degrees Fahrenheit), but the narrow borehole proved too restrictive to deliver enough heat for the generator to operate. So the team pivoted, connecting the generator directly to a naturally flowing, hotter hydrothermal vent instead. The generator then ran for a total of 29 seconds, producing about 2 kilowatts of net power for 8.7 seconds. That represents the total electricity the turbine generated, minus the 7 to 8 kilowatts needed to run its supporting components, such as the refrigerant pump and other onboard equipment.
Then a software glitch triggered the onboard battery safety system, which shut down the plant. When the team tried to restart the system, the power cable feeding the refrigerant pump failed, leaving the pump unable to restart. That was the end of the road. The mission wrapped up after three weeks at sea, a far shorter run than the team had hoped.
“The success criteria would be if we had left with the generator still on the seafloor; that would have been an example of sustained net power, and we didn’t get there,” Redd told me. Instead, the team brought the system back to Endurance’s Seattle headquarters, where it’s fixing the software as well as refurbishing and upgrading the hardware — which includes changing how it builds and tests subsea cables — to prepare for another mission sometime this winter. This time, the goal will be to generate sustained power from a much deeper well.
The team will need to demonstrate progress soon to keep its next major milestone on track: a planned 2-megawatt deployment off the coast of Tonga by the end of 2027. The project aims to supply electricity directly to the Tongan grid, which today is heavily dependent on expensive, imported diesel. Redd expects subsea geothermal to be cost-competitive with that fuel in this first pilot.
Getting there, however, is a formidable engineering challenge. While it’s long been a subject of academic curiosity, no one prior to Endurance had ever drilled an offshore geothermal well before, meaning the team can’t simply transplant existing land-based technology to the seafloor. “Every component that you would use terrestrially now needs to be either modified or built completely from scratch,” Redd explained. “And so you multiply that across every component required to make these kinds of infrastructure projects happen, and it’s a lot of work.”
No kidding. But if Endurance can pull it off, Redd sees this resource as “the perfect energy source for the future.” A conference paper presented by the geoscience company Viridien last year estimates that offshore geothermal resources worldwide could yield about 6 terawatts of recoverable electric power — nearly twice the world’s current continuous electricity output.
“We can access terawatts of power. There’s no fuel. We can site next to extremely large cities around the Pacific. We have no surface presence,” Redd said, ticking off the advantages. Plus, the three necessary ingredients for a high-quality geothermal well — permeable rock, high heat, and water — are widely accessible offshore, he added. Eventually, he expects subsea geothermal to undercut natural gas in Endurance’s target markets: electricity grids, industrial facilities, and data centers across the Pacific Islands, the U.S. West Coast, and Northeast Asia, all of which sit along the undersea volcanic zone known as the “Ring of Fire.”
The way Redd sees it, advances in subsea technology pioneered by the offshore wind, oil, and gas industries have cleared much of the technological path to making underwater geothermal a viable clean energy resource. In his view, what’s been missing is simply the ambition to chase the opportunity in the private market. SpaceX, he said, really proved what’s possible for a scrappy startup to achieve.
“It is quite new at industrial scale for a small company with a bunch of fairly young people to go after something like this,” he told me. “Before SpaceX went to launch a rocket as a private company, no one thought you could get to orbit as a private company. And so that has really seeded this ambition.”
On Greenland’s deepsea mining ban, Indonesia floating nuclear, and a solar boom
Current conditions: Hurricane Trudy has weakened from its peak as a Category 2 storm but still threatens up to 8 inches of rain as it swirls off Baja California • A nor’easter is howling through the Mid-Atlantic this week, hammering the coast with winds of up to 70 miles per hour • A humid overcast has settled over Paris this week as French authorities struggle to regain control after protests over living costs gave way to anarchic riots.
At least 47 major data center projects have been delayed, withdrawn, or blocked so far this year, according to data the regulatory intelligence service RegLayer shared with the Financial Times — and that may be a “conservative estimate.” Just 35% of planned data centers are “credible,” analysts told the newspaper, as more than 1,000 communities across the United States now have restrictions on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The data comes as investors look increasingly jittery about AI following ChatGPT-maker OpenAI’s missing a key revenue metric this year.
Those findings stand in contrast with the numbers from our data service, Heatmap Pro. Based on our research, at least 107 projects faced cancellation so far this year, putting 2026 on track to beat last year, which saw 108 proposals nixed.
Unless you’re living off the grid and away from any social media (if so, I’m jealous), then you can probably surmise that not-in-my-backyard opposition prevails in many such cases against proposed data centers. That makes selling would-be neighbors on the projects critical. New polling by the advocacy group GoodPower found that a binding promise to protect local electricity rates boosts support for the projects upward by as much as 14 points. Such a pledge worked primarily on the 78% of voters who distrust data centers. Another potential winner: Pair a data center with renewables. At least 46% of respondents to the poll said their support would increase if a project were powered by renewables. The survey spoke to 2,610 registered voters last month and oversampled in states with at least 200 data centers completed: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
Greenland wants to find ways to exploit its mineral riches in hopes of generating enough income from industries other than fishing and tourism to eventually wean off subsidies from the governments of Denmark and the European Union. Earlier this month, as you may recall, the self-governing Danish island gave a project the green light. But the government in Nuuk doesn’t want miners harvesting metals from the seabed surrounding the Arctic island, which are fertile fishing grounds and could, in theory, lead to mineral production without meaningful infrastructure to create jobs for Greenlandic people. Last week, the Greenlandic Parliament adopted a resolution requiring the government to draft legislation banning deep-sea mining. All members present voted to approve the proposal, according to Sermitsiaq, a leading newspaper in Nuuk. The ban would, if adopted, last until the end of 2029, with the possibility of an extension for two years at a time.
Sign up to receive Heatmap AM in your inbox every morning:
Long before the race for small modular reactors kicked off, Russia launched a floating nuclear power station and sailed the vessel up to the Arctic to power a small town. Now, as you may recall, the state-owned Russian nuclear company Rosatom is making plans to build more floating nuclear plants, and it has a major nuclear newcomer nation as an offtaker. Last week, NucNet reported, Rosatom announced a deal with Indonesia’s state-owned PT Pembangkit Listrik Nuklir to supply electricity to northern Indonesia from at least two floating nuclear plants with a capacity of 200 megawatts each.

Over the past decade, small-scale and rooftop solar systems increased from 18,812 gigawatt-hours to 92,979 gigawatt-hours, an increase of over 394%. That’s according to a new analysis from the Energy Information Administration, which found that California, Arizona, Texas, Florida are the regions with the most abundant solar resources. Even though the state has worse solar resources in general, New York ranked fifth as a result of growing capacity. Still, the rate of growth in generation has slowed over the past three years. l
The Trump administration is pulling out all the stops for Alaskans who want to drill and transport fossil fuels, mine minerals, and log trees. Now he’s easing rules on hunters. A new final rule from the National Park Service has revived a hunting method the Biden administration banned in 2024: Baiting bears with doughnuts soaked in bacon grease. Hunters use the baits to lure bears to close range before shooting them. “Some hunters prefer to use strong-smelling, high-calorie foods like pastries, doughnuts, meat scraps or fish remains to lure bears from miles away,” The New York Times reported. “But some conservationists say the practice is unethical and risks making the bears accustomed to human food, which could endanger people.”