As Trump’s Tariffs Sink In, the Fallout Begins

Current conditions: The U.K. is on high alert for wildfires this weekend due to warm weather and high winds • The Canary Islands are cleaning up damage from Storm Nuria’s hurricane-force winds • Flooding in southeastern Oregon from historic levels of rain and snowmelt forced schools to close and 1,200 people to evacuate.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Wall Street tumbles as trade war looms

U.S. stocks plummeted Thursday as Wall Street digested President Trump’s new trade tariffs. The S&P 500 fell 4.8% in its worst day since the COVID pandemic, the Nasdaq lost 6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 4%. Energy fuels are largely exempt from the tariffs, but stocks like Vistra, Constellation, and GE Vernova all dropped anyway. Why? As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin explains, anxiety is setting in about what the tariffs will do to economic growth — and electricity demand growth as a result. The tariffs will be a major hit to the country’s economic trajectory according to almost every non-White House economist that’s looked at them. “Economic growth and energy consumption are pretty closely linked,” Aurora Energy Research managing director Oliver Kerr told Zeitlin. “An economic slowdown tends to result in less demand for power overall. That's what the market is probably reacting to today.”

But Zeitlin says the one renewable energy winner from the tariffs may be American solar manufacturer First Solar. Its stock was up almost 5% as the broader market reels from the global tariffs. First Solar “is currently the largest domestic manufacturer of solar panels and is in the midst of expanding its domestic manufacturing footprint, which should serve as a competitive advantage over its peers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perocco wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, automaker Stellantis is “temporarily” laying off 900 U.S. employees across five plants and pausing work at some of its Mexico and Canada facilities while the company is “continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations.” Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the layoffs “a horrifying consequence of Trump’s tariffs.”

2. These are the critical minerals exempt from Trump’s tariffs

President Trump has exempted some — but certainly not all — of the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition from the sweeping tariffs. Heatmap’s Katie Brigham combed through the White House’s list of exempt products to identify key transition minerals. Here are some that caught her eye:

• Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide – Both are precursor materials for lithium-ion batteries.
• Manganese dioxide – A type of manganese ore from which manganese compounds are produced. These are then used in the cathodes of NMC lithium-ion batteries to enhance stability and performance.
• Cobalt – Also plays an important role in the cathodes of NMC lithium-ion batteries to enhance stability and energy density.
• Natural graphite (powder or flakes) – Graphite mined from the earth is used as anode material for lithium-ion batteries because of its high electrical conductivity, which allows for fast charging and high power output.
• Aluminum – A lightweight and easily recyclable material, aluminum is critical for the construction of many clean energy products, such as EV bodies, the frames of solar panels, and wind turbine components.
• Copper – A very good electrical conductor that’s used in the wiring for solar panels, wind turbines, EV motors, lithium-ion batteries, and power transmission lines.

And if you’re curious, here are the minerals that are subject to tariffs.

3. How the world is reacting to the tariffs

The rest of the world is responding to the tariffs with a mix of exasperation and outrage. Canada announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles as President Trump’s 25% auto tariffs came into effect. China retaliate against the new 54% levies with its own 34% tariffs on all U.S. imports, and accused the U.S. of “unilateral bullying.” French President Emmanuel Macron called for European countries to pause planned U.S. investment. And Italy’s industry minister on Thursday signaled that the country plans to ask the European Union to suspend emissions rules aimed at the bloc’s industrial sectors because of the new 20% fees.

4. Severe storms kill 7, with more bad weather on the way

At least seven people have died in severe storms across the central U.S. this week. Hundreds of tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. In Nashville, some tornado sirens were so busy, they ran out of batteries. Boston meteorologist Tevin Wooten said nearly 400 tornado warnings had been issued in less than 24 hours. The National Weather Service warns the flooding could be “life-threatening, catastrophic, and potentially historic” as the storm lingers over the region through the weekend and drops huge amounts of rain. And another round of severe storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and baseball-size hail is taking aim at northeast Texas and western Arkansas today:

NOAA

5. The 2025 hurricane season forecast is in

Researchers from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team put out their annual long-range forecast for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday. Due largely to abnormally high sea surface temperatures, the experts are predicting “above-normal activity,” with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes for 2025. Those numbers are down slightly from last year, but still, overall hurricane activity is expected to be roughly 125% higher than the 30-year averages. A lot of uncertainty remains, and forecasters will be able to narrow their predictions when the trajectory of La Niña or El Niño conditions become more clear. Hurricane season officially begins June 1. Last year’s hurricane season produced several record-breaking storms, including Beryl (the earliest Atlantic basin Category-5 hurricane on record), Helene (the deadliest hurricane since Katrina and the seventh costliest storm ever), and Milton (one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record). All three of those names have now been retired due to their respective storms’ destruction.

THE KICKER

President Trump’s new 10% baseline tariffs apply to the Heard and McDonalds Islands, remote and uninhabited Antarctic regions populated mostly by penguins and seals.