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Economy

As Trump’s Tariffs Sink In, the Fallout Begins

On Wall Street’s wipeout, more severe weather, and hurricane season predictions

As Trump’s Tariffs Sink In, the Fallout Begins
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The U.K. is on high alert for wildfires this weekend due to warm weather and high winds • The Canary Islands are cleaning up damage from Storm Nuria’s hurricane-force winds • Flooding in southeastern Oregon from historic levels of rain and snowmelt forced schools to close and 1,200 people to evacuate.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Wall Street tumbles as trade war looms

U.S. stocks plummeted Thursday as Wall Street digested President Trump’s new trade tariffs. The S&P 500 fell 4.8% in its worst day since the COVID pandemic, the Nasdaq lost 6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 4%. Energy fuels are largely exempt from the tariffs, but stocks like Vistra, Constellation, and GE Vernova all dropped anyway. Why? As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin explains, anxiety is setting in about what the tariffs will do to economic growth — and electricity demand growth as a result. The tariffs will be a major hit to the country’s economic trajectory according to almost every non-White House economist that’s looked at them. “Economic growth and energy consumption are pretty closely linked,” Aurora Energy Research managing director Oliver Kerr told Zeitlin. “An economic slowdown tends to result in less demand for power overall. That's what the market is probably reacting to today.”

But Zeitlin says the one renewable energy winner from the tariffs may be American solar manufacturer First Solar. Its stock was up almost 5% as the broader market reels from the global tariffs. First Solar “is currently the largest domestic manufacturer of solar panels and is in the midst of expanding its domestic manufacturing footprint, which should serve as a competitive advantage over its peers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perocco wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, automaker Stellantis is “temporarily” laying off 900 U.S. employees across five plants and pausing work at some of its Mexico and Canada facilities while the company is “continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations.” Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the layoffs “a horrifying consequence of Trump’s tariffs.”

2. These are the critical minerals exempt from Trump’s tariffs

President Trump has exempted some — but certainly not all — of the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition from the sweeping tariffs. Heatmap’s Katie Brigham combed through the White House’s list of exempt products to identify key transition minerals. Here are some that caught her eye:

  • Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide – Both are precursor materials for lithium-ion batteries.
  • Manganese dioxide – A type of manganese ore from which manganese compounds are produced. These are then used in the cathodes of NMC lithium-ion batteries to enhance stability and performance.
  • Cobalt – Also plays an important role in the cathodes of NMC lithium-ion batteries to enhance stability and energy density.
  • Natural graphite (powder or flakes) – Graphite mined from the earth is used as anode material for lithium-ion batteries because of its high electrical conductivity, which allows for fast charging and high power output.
  • Aluminum – A lightweight and easily recyclable material, aluminum is critical for the construction of many clean energy products, such as EV bodies, the frames of solar panels, and wind turbine components.
  • Copper – A very good electrical conductor that’s used in the wiring for solar panels, wind turbines, EV motors, lithium-ion batteries, and power transmission lines.

And if you’re curious, here are the minerals that are subject to tariffs.

3. How the world is reacting to the tariffs

The rest of the world is responding to the tariffs with a mix of exasperation and outrage. Canada announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles as President Trump’s 25% auto tariffs came into effect. China retaliate against the new 54% levies with its own 34% tariffs on all U.S. imports, and accused the U.S. of “unilateral bullying.” French President Emmanuel Macron called for European countries to pause planned U.S. investment. And Italy’s industry minister on Thursday signaled that the country plans to ask the European Union to suspend emissions rules aimed at the bloc’s industrial sectors because of the new 20% fees.

4. Severe storms kill 7, with more bad weather on the way

At least seven people have died in severe storms across the central U.S. this week. Hundreds of tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. In Nashville, some tornado sirens were so busy, they ran out of batteries. Boston meteorologist Tevin Wooten said nearly 400 tornado warnings had been issued in less than 24 hours. The National Weather Service warns the flooding could be “life-threatening, catastrophic, and potentially historic” as the storm lingers over the region through the weekend and drops huge amounts of rain. And another round of severe storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and baseball-size hail is taking aim at northeast Texas and western Arkansas today:

NOAA

5. The 2025 hurricane season forecast is in

Researchers from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team put out their annual long-range forecast for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday. Due largely to abnormally high sea surface temperatures, the experts are predicting “above-normal activity,” with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes for 2025. Those numbers are down slightly from last year, but still, overall hurricane activity is expected to be roughly 125% higher than the 30-year averages. A lot of uncertainty remains, and forecasters will be able to narrow their predictions when the trajectory of La Niña or El Niño conditions become more clear. Hurricane season officially begins June 1. Last year’s hurricane season produced several record-breaking storms, including Beryl (the earliest Atlantic basin Category-5 hurricane on record), Helene (the deadliest hurricane since Katrina and the seventh costliest storm ever), and Milton (one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record). All three of those names have now been retired due to their respective storms’ destruction.

THE KICKER

President Trump’s new 10% baseline tariffs apply to the Heard and McDonalds Islands, remote and uninhabited Antarctic regions populated mostly by penguins and seals.

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A mining truck.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

President Donald Trump has exempted some — but certainly not all — of the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition from the sweeping tariffs he announced Wednesday. Minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper are key components of clean energy infrastructure such as lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric vehicles or stationary storage, and copper wires, which conduct electricity in solar panels and wind turbines.

The White House has published a complete list of hundreds of products that are exempt from tariffs. We combed through the list looking for key transition minerals. Here are the ones that caught our eye, plus some that were notably left off. If you see anything on the list you think we missed, my inbox is open.

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Spotlight

It’s Getting Harder to Build a Solar Farm In America’s Sunniest State

A renewables fight in Arizona turns ugly.

Arizona solar farm.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Autumn Johnson told me some days it feels like she’s shouting into a void.

Johnson is the executive director for the Arizona branch of the Solar Energy Industries Association, the nation’s pre-eminent solar power trade group. Lately, she told me, she’s seeing an increasing number of communities go after potential solar farms, many of them places with little or no previous solar development. There’s so many she’s had to start “tracking them on a spreadsheet,” she tells me, then proceeding to rattle off the names of counties and towns like battles in a war. Heatmap Pro data reveals how restricted Arizona is today, with six out of the state’s 15 counties showing a restrictive ordinance on solar and/or wind energy.

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Hotspots

Congressman Asks Trump to Shut Down the Empire Wind Project

And more of the week’s top renewable energy fights.

Map of renewable energy fights.
Heatmap Illustration

1. Long Island, New York We begin today with a crucial stand-off for the future of energy off the coast of New York City: Rep. Chris Smith – one of the loudest anti-wind voices in Congress – is asking the Trump administration to shut down active work on the Empire Wind project.

  • Few in Congress have frustrated offshore wind developers more than Smith, a New Jersey Republican who used legislative maneuvers to get a Government Accountability Office study greenlit about the impacts of offshore wind on whale species.
  • In a letter Friday, which has not been previously reported, Smith requested the project be forcibly paused until the Trump administration can complete its purported government-wide review of the wind industry.
  • Smith also asked a host of additional mitigation requirements be placed on Empire Wind before it can proceed, including new specific requirements on impacts to air travel. The letter claims – without specifics – that the project could impact radar interference “in the shadow of three major airports.”
  • “Empire Wind cannot safely proceed until much needed further review [can] be done to protect the public and our eastern seaboard. I ask that you do everything in your power to halt Equinor’s underhanded rush to begin piledriving and block construction until the critical assessment can be completed,” Smith wrote.
  • I’ve asked Equinor to comment on this letter, as a stop-work order would be a massive escalation in the war on offshore wind. Alyse Sharpe, a public affairs specialist with the Interior Department, told me in an email the agency does "not comment on congressional correspondence" but said it "takes all correspondence from Congress seriously and reviews each matter" and should there be "any updates on this topic, we will provide further information at the appropriate time."

2. Gulf of Maine – American floating offshore wind is now taking one more step backwards, as Mitsubishi pulls out of the test arrays it was working on under Biden with researchers at the University of Maine.

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