Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Electric Vehicles

Electric Cars’ Partisanship Problem

About half of EVs are sold in the top Democratic strongholds, new research finds.

A Tesla driving past a political sign.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Sales of electric cars have reached what some researchers believe is a “tipping point.” Now that the share of cars sold that are EVs has barreled past the 5% mark, the theory goes, they will rapidly take over the entire market. In the first quarter of this year, the Tesla Model Y became the best selling car in the world.

But new research shows that the escalating interest in electric vehicles has been highly partisan, calling into question the tipping point theory and threatening the widespread adoption needed to accomplish U.S. climate goals.

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, about half of new EVs sold went to the 10% most Democratic counties in the U.S., and about one-third went to the top 5%. That’s the main finding of a working paper released Monday by three economists from the University of California, Berkeley, MIT, and the business school HEC in Montreal. The researchers found that even when looking at individual years, the proportion of sales that went to top Democratic counties in 2012 remained unchanged in 2022.

“We expected to see a broadening of the market,” Lucas Davis, the author from Berkeley, told me in an email. “After all, it has now been 14 years since Nissan introduced the original Leaf, and long-range EVs have been widely available for a decade.” But the study suggests that while Democrats have long been strong supporters of EVs, interest from Republicans has remained unchanged.

Though there’s no clear signal in the data that EVs are becoming more polarized, that might change if Republican presidential candidates are successful in making EVs a wedge issue in the upcoming election. In a campaign speech in Detroit last month, former President Donald Trump called President Biden’s electric vehicle policies “cruel and ridiculous.” Trump played into fears that batteries are “bad for the environment,” and framed EVs as “for people who want to take very short trips,” despite most models achieving more than 200 miles before needing a charge. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has promised to reverse Biden’s policies that “force Americans to buy electric vehicles,” citing concern about dependence on China. Vivek Rameswamy has called subsidies for EVs “anti-American.”

The recent flurry of anti-EV sentiment from Republicans isn’t limited to the campaign trail. Many Republican states have imposed punitive annual registration fees on EV owners. Earlier this year, Wyoming lawmakers floated a bill to end EV sales by 2035, arguing EVs threaten the state’s oil and gas industry. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin rejected a proposed Ford battery plant due to its partnership with a Chinese company.

The new findings are also consistent with public opinion polling. For instance, this spring, Pew found that 56% of Democrats were very or somewhat likely to consider buying an EV, versus only 20% of Republicans.

In order to discern whether there was any correlation between EV adoption and political ideology, the authors gathered EV sales data by state and county from 2012 to 2020. As a proxy for political ideology, they used county-level voting records from the 2012 presidential election — but also tested the findings using records from 2016 and 2020 and found similar results. The data showed that EV adoption was highly concentrated in counties with the highest share of Democratic votes.

One perhaps unsurprising finding was that nine of the top ten counties for EV sales were in California, and the top four counties for EV sales were all in the Bay Area. Some of these, like Santa Clara and San Francisco, are among the wealthiest counties in the country, and past research has identified correlations between EV adoption and income. But even when the researchers controlled for income, the strong association between EV sales and Democrats persisted. They also found the correlation remained “strong and statistically significant” after controlling for population density — a rough proxy for the presence of EV chargers — and gasoline prices.

The authors warn that the results do not bode well for Biden’s climate goals. Earlier this year, the EPA proposed new fuel economy rules that are designed to increase EV sales to two-thirds of all new vehicles by 2032. “Such an aggressive increase would require adoption patterns to change dramatically,” they write.

Blue

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Podcast

Heatmap’s Annual Climate Insiders Survey Is Here

Rob takes Jesse through our battery of questions.

A person taking a survey.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Every year, Heatmap asks dozens of climate scientists, officials, and business leaders the same set of questions. It’s an act of temperature-taking we call our Insiders Survey — and our 2026 edition is live now.

In this week’s Shift Key episode, Rob puts Jesse through the survey wringer. What is the most exciting climate tech company? Are data centers slowing down decarbonization? And will a country attempt the global deployment of solar radiation management within the next decade? It’s a fun one! Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
The Insiders Survey

Climate Insiders Want to Stop Talking About ‘Climate Change’

They still want to decarbonize, but they’re over the jargon.

Climate protesters.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Where does the fight to decarbonize the global economy go from here? The past 12 months, after all, have been bleak. Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement (again) and is trying to leave a precursor United Nations climate treaty, as well. He ripped out half the Inflation Reduction Act, sidetracked the Environmental Protection Administration, and rechristened the Energy Department’s in-house bank in the name of “energy dominance.” Even nonpartisan weather research — like that conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research — is getting shut down by Trump’s ideologues. And in the days before we went to press, Trump invaded Venezuela with the explicit goal (he claims) of taking its oil.

Abroad, the picture hardly seems rosier. China’s new climate pledge struck many observers as underwhelming. Mark Carney, who once led the effort to decarbonize global finance, won Canada’s premiership after promising to lift parts of that country’s carbon tax — then struck a “grand bargain” with fossiliferous Alberta. Even Europe seems to dither between its climate goals, its economic security, and the need for faster growth.

Now would be a good time, we thought, for an industry-wide check-in. So we called up 55 of the most discerning and often disputatious voices in climate and clean energy — the scientists, researchers, innovators, and reformers who are already shaping our climate future. Some of them led the Biden administration’s climate policy from within the White House; others are harsh or heterodox critics of mainstream environmentalism. And a few more are on the front lines right now, tasked with responding to Trump’s policies from the halls of Congress — or the ivory minarets of academia.

We asked them all the same questions, including: Which key decarbonization technology is not ready for primetime? Who in the Trump administration has been the worst for decarbonization? And how hot is the planet set to get in 2100, really? (Among other queries.) Their answers — as summarized and tabulated by my colleagues — are available in these pages.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
The Insiders Survey

Will Data Centers Slow Decarbonization?

Plus, which is the best hyperscaler on climate — and which is the worst?

A data center and renewable energy.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The biggest story in energy right now is data centers.

After decades of slow load growth, forecasters are almost competing with each other to predict the most eye-popping figure for how much new electricity demand data centers will add to the grid. And with the existing electricity system with its backbone of natural gas, more data centers could mean higher emissions.

Keep reading...Show less