Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Technology

The IEA Isn’t Sweating Data Center Electricity Demand

The organization’s annual World Energy Outlook is pretty sanguine on the subject.

Power lines and a data center.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Early this morning, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook. And while the Paris-based agency says the world should certainly be concerned about rising electricity demand overall, it also conveys (not quite in so many words) that perhaps we should all just calm down when it comes to data center load growth driven by the rise of generative artificial intelligence.

The report demonstrates that on a global scale, data centers are pretty trivial compared to, say, the uptick in electric vehicle adoption or increased demand for cooling. By 2030 in the base case scenario, the IEA projects that data centers will account for less than 10% of global electricity demand growth, which is roughly equal to demand growth from desalination technologies, which we see much less hand-wringing about. By comparison, the combination of rising temperatures and rising incomes could create over 1,200 terawatt-hours of additional cooling demand by 2035, more than the entire Middle East’s electricity use.

Charts from IEA World Energy OutlookIEA

The IEA emphasized that when it comes to data centers, “plausible high and low sensitivities do not change the outlook fundamentally,” meaning that regardless of factors such as how quickly renewables and other low-emission energy sources are able to ramp up or the rate at which computing efficiency improves, data centers are poised to be a small piece of the overall pie.

The authors even sound an optimistic note as they urge readers to consider the positive impacts that artificial intelligence could have on the energy sector at large, writing that “the potential implications of AI for energy are broader [than just their data center electricity use] and include improved systems coordination in the power sector and shorter innovation cycles.” As of now, folks can only guess as to whether the net benefits of AI will be positive or negative from an emissions standpoint. But the report again sounded relatively cheery as it noted that there is “a set of low-emissions options available to meet this [data center] demand,” as cleaner electricity sources are growing much faster than data center electricity use.

The unbothered tone might seem surprising, given the general freakout over demand growth as well as dueling perspectives over how to meet it. But while it’s important to put these numbers in perspective, that task shouldn’t be an excuse not to act. After all, even “a small percent of the pie” still leads to some pretty big figures. For example, say data centers comprise a conservative 5% of global electricity demand growth between now and 2030. That would mean an additional 338 terawatt-hours of electricity demand by the end of the decade, an estimate the IEA says could vary by as much as 170 terawatt-hours. So on the high end, global growth in data center electricity demand could reach around 500 terawatt-hours by 2030, nearly a quarter of total U.S. electricity generation last year.

So while this might not level up to a crisis on a global scale, it’s still very much a problem worth mitigating — all the more so because data centers are heavily geographically concentrated, meaning local grid impacts will be felt acutely. Back in April, Jonathan Koomey, an independent researcher, lecturer, and entrepreneur who studies the energy and environmental impacts of information technology, discussed this very issue with Heatmap’s own Shift Key co-hosts, Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins. As Koomey put it, “A place like Ireland that has, I think at last count 17%, 18% of its load from data centers, if that grows, that could give them real challenges. Same thing with Loudoun County in Virginia.”

The IEA also acknowledges this reality, noting that even if, globally, there’s enough clean energy to go around, local constraints on generation and grid capacity could be severe. But as Koomey told Heatmap — and as, perhaps, the IEA is trying to tell us all — “it is not a national story. It is a local story.”

Blue

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
AM Briefing

Blue Wave Past the Breakers

On SpaceX’s IPO, hydro deals, and UnionDAC

Columns.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The powerful storm system rolling through the Midwest and the Plains on Thursday caused more than 350 incidents of severe weather in just two states, Iowa and Michigan • New York City is getting its own thunderstorm today, which will break the heat going into the weekend • Temperatures in Mecca are already 110 degrees Fahrenheit, and will climb higher on Saturday.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Energy Department’s terminations of ‘blue state’ grants ruled unconstitutional

The Department of Energy has reversed its terminations of 11 grants to clean energy projects in states that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The move comes months after the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the cancellations violated the Fifth Amendment’s equal protection guarantee, citing the continuation of comparable grants to states that voted for President Donald Trump in the election. Under the terms of an agreement between the litigants and the federal government filed on Thursday, the Energy Department will vacate the terminations. Among the primary reasons for the decision, according to a blog post from a network for former Energy Department officials, is that the agency itself admitted that part of its justification for canceling the projects was that they were listed in documents as taking place in “blue states.” But it wasn’t just Democratic-leaning states that were targeted in the initial cuts last fall. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, red state projects were on the chopping block, too.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Daily Briefing

Lee Raymond, 311 ppm – 421 ppm

The former ExxonMobil CEO left his legacy both on the Earth and in the sky.

Lee Raymond.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Lee Raymond, the former ExxonMobil chief executive who became one of the country’s most important and influential climate science deniers, died in Dallas on Saturday. His death was announced today.

Raymond would probably count as a world-historic figure even if viewed only through the lens of the fossil fuel business. As Exxon’s chief executive, he personally negotiated the company’s merger with Mobil, creating the modern oil and gas juggernaut ExxonMobil in 2000 — and uniting two major pieces of the old Standard Oil monopoly. He ran Exxon from 1993 to 1999, and then ExxonMobil until 2005, at a crucial period in the history of that company, turning it from a diversified conglomerate that sold office furniture, real estate, and uranium fuel into a streamlined and exorbitantly profitable oil and gas business. Even before taking over the company, he managed its response to the disastrous Exxon Valdez oil spill; he later oversaw a worker safety push that would be widely copied by the industry.

Keep reading...Show less
Climate

5 Key Changes to SBTi’s Net Zero Standard

The Science Based Targets Initiative just released a major update to its signature rulebook for setting climate goals.

A scientist and pollution.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Companies have a new rulebook for what constitutes credible climate action. The Science Based Targets Initiative, an organization that seeks to align corporate sustainability plans with the goals of the Paris Agreement, published a major update to its signature Net Zero Standard on Thursday designed to help companies assess their progress on climate goals, not just set them.

The update marks a significant expansion of the standard, which previously defined what a good corporate emissions target looked like, but did not say much about how to achieve it. The new version sets requirements for what companies must do to prove they are advancing toward their benchmarks.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue