Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Technology

The IEA Isn’t Sweating Data Center Electricity Demand

The organization’s annual World Energy Outlook is pretty sanguine on the subject.

Power lines and a data center.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Early this morning, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook. And while the Paris-based agency says the world should certainly be concerned about rising electricity demand overall, it also conveys (not quite in so many words) that perhaps we should all just calm down when it comes to data center load growth driven by the rise of generative artificial intelligence.

The report demonstrates that on a global scale, data centers are pretty trivial compared to, say, the uptick in electric vehicle adoption or increased demand for cooling. By 2030 in the base case scenario, the IEA projects that data centers will account for less than 10% of global electricity demand growth, which is roughly equal to demand growth from desalination technologies, which we see much less hand-wringing about. By comparison, the combination of rising temperatures and rising incomes could create over 1,200 terawatt-hours of additional cooling demand by 2035, more than the entire Middle East’s electricity use.

Charts from IEA World Energy OutlookIEA

The IEA emphasized that when it comes to data centers, “plausible high and low sensitivities do not change the outlook fundamentally,” meaning that regardless of factors such as how quickly renewables and other low-emission energy sources are able to ramp up or the rate at which computing efficiency improves, data centers are poised to be a small piece of the overall pie.

The authors even sound an optimistic note as they urge readers to consider the positive impacts that artificial intelligence could have on the energy sector at large, writing that “the potential implications of AI for energy are broader [than just their data center electricity use] and include improved systems coordination in the power sector and shorter innovation cycles.” As of now, folks can only guess as to whether the net benefits of AI will be positive or negative from an emissions standpoint. But the report again sounded relatively cheery as it noted that there is “a set of low-emissions options available to meet this [data center] demand,” as cleaner electricity sources are growing much faster than data center electricity use.

The unbothered tone might seem surprising, given the general freakout over demand growth as well as dueling perspectives over how to meet it. But while it’s important to put these numbers in perspective, that task shouldn’t be an excuse not to act. After all, even “a small percent of the pie” still leads to some pretty big figures. For example, say data centers comprise a conservative 5% of global electricity demand growth between now and 2030. That would mean an additional 338 terawatt-hours of electricity demand by the end of the decade, an estimate the IEA says could vary by as much as 170 terawatt-hours. So on the high end, global growth in data center electricity demand could reach around 500 terawatt-hours by 2030, nearly a quarter of total U.S. electricity generation last year.

So while this might not level up to a crisis on a global scale, it’s still very much a problem worth mitigating — all the more so because data centers are heavily geographically concentrated, meaning local grid impacts will be felt acutely. Back in April, Jonathan Koomey, an independent researcher, lecturer, and entrepreneur who studies the energy and environmental impacts of information technology, discussed this very issue with Heatmap’s own Shift Key co-hosts, Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins. As Koomey put it, “A place like Ireland that has, I think at last count 17%, 18% of its load from data centers, if that grows, that could give them real challenges. Same thing with Loudoun County in Virginia.”

The IEA also acknowledges this reality, noting that even if, globally, there’s enough clean energy to go around, local constraints on generation and grid capacity could be severe. But as Koomey told Heatmap — and as, perhaps, the IEA is trying to tell us all — “it is not a national story. It is a local story.”

Blue

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Adaptation

The ‘Buffer’ That Can Protect a Town from Wildfires

Paradise, California, is snatching up high-risk properties to create a defensive perimeter and prevent the town from burning again.

Homes as a wildfire buffer.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The 2018 Camp Fire was the deadliest wildfire in California’s history, wiping out 90% of the structures in the mountain town of Paradise and killing at least 85 people in a matter of hours. Investigations afterward found that Paradise’s town planners had ignored warnings of the fire risk to its residents and forgone common-sense preparations that would have saved lives. In the years since, the Camp Fire has consequently become a cautionary tale for similar communities in high-risk wildfire areas — places like Chinese Camp, a small historic landmark in the Sierra Nevada foothills that dramatically burned to the ground last week as part of the nearly 14,000-acre TCU September Lightning Complex.

More recently, Paradise has also become a model for how a town can rebuild wisely after a wildfire. At least some of that is due to the work of Dan Efseaff, the director of the Paradise Recreation and Park District, who has launched a program to identify and acquire some of the highest-risk, hardest-to-access properties in the Camp Fire burn scar. Though he has a limited total operating budget of around $5.5 million and relies heavily on the charity of local property owners (he’s currently in the process of applying for a $15 million grant with a $5 million match for the program) Efseaff has nevertheless managed to build the beginning of a defensible buffer of managed parkland around Paradise that could potentially buy the town time in the case of a future wildfire.

Keep reading...Show less
Spotlight

How the Tax Bill Is Empowering Anti-Renewables Activists

A war of attrition is now turning in opponents’ favor.

Massachusetts and solar panels.
Heatmap Illustration/Library of Congress, Getty Images

A solar developer’s defeat in Massachusetts last week reveals just how much stronger project opponents are on the battlefield after the de facto repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Last week, solar developer PureSky pulled five projects under development around the western Massachusetts town of Shutesbury. PureSky’s facilities had been in the works for years and would together represent what the developer has claimed would be one of the state’s largest solar projects thus far. In a statement, the company laid blame on “broader policy and regulatory headwinds,” including the state’s existing renewables incentives not keeping pace with rising costs and “federal policy updates,” which PureSky said were “making it harder to finance projects like those proposed near Shutesbury.”

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow
Hotspots

The Midwest Is Becoming Even Tougher for Solar Projects

And more on the week’s most important conflicts around renewables.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Wells County, Indiana – One of the nation’s most at-risk solar projects may now be prompting a full on moratorium.

  • Late last week, this county was teed up to potentially advance a new restrictive solar ordinance that would’ve cut off zoning access for large-scale facilities. That’s obviously bad for developers. But it would’ve still allowed solar facilities up to 50 acres and grandfathered in projects that had previously signed agreements with local officials.
  • However, solar opponents swamped the county Area Planning Commission meeting to decide on the ordinance, turning it into an over four-hour display in which many requested in public comments to outright ban solar projects entirely without a grandfathering clause.
  • It’s clear part of the opposition is inflamed over the EDF Paddlefish Solar project, which we ranked last year as one of the nation’s top imperiled renewables facilities in progress. The project has already resulted in a moratorium in another county, Huntington.
  • Although the Paddlefish project is not unique in its risks, it is what we view as a bellwether for the future of solar development in farming communities, as the Fort Wayne-adjacent county is a picturesque display of many areas across the United States. Pro-renewables advocates have sought to tamp down opposition with tactics such as a direct text messaging campaign, which I previously scooped last week.
  • Yet despite the counter-communications, momentum is heading in the other direction. At the meeting, officials ultimately decided to punt a decision to next month so they could edit their draft ordinance to assuage aggrieved residents.
  • Also worth noting: anyone could see from Heatmap Pro data that this county would be an incredibly difficult fight for a solar developer. Despite a slim majority of local support for renewable energy, the county has a nearly 100% opposition risk rating, due in no small part to its large agricultural workforce and MAGA leanings.

2. Clark County, Ohio – Another Ohio county has significantly restricted renewable energy development, this time with big political implications.

Keep reading...Show less
Yellow