The race to build data centers is driving a natural gas boom in the U.S. power sector unlike any seen before. According to Global Energy Monitor, a group that tracks energy infrastructure around the world, the amount of natural gas generation proposed to power data centers in the U.S. doubled in just six months, from January to July.
In a report released Tuesday, the nonprofit said it counted 189 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity that has either been announced, entered the pre-construction phase, or come under construction, up from 97 gigawatts at the end of last year. That count includes plants proposed by utilities to meet demand from data centers, as well as off-grid projects that companies are building to power data centers directly.
And that’s not even the full scale of what’s in the pipeline. In total, taking into account additional planned natural gas-fired power plants that are not necessarily tied to data center projects, the U.S. has 378 gigawatts of generation capacity under development, the report found. For reference, the country had 512 gigawatts of natural gas generation capacity operating as of the end of last year.
While many of the projects included in the Global Energy Monitor's data are in early stages and may not materialize, the authors count 52 gigawatts that are already under construction. That’s a 76% increase compared to last year, according to the report, and double the amount under construction in China, making the U.S. the top builder of natural gas plants in the world.
The closest historical precedent to this was in the early 2000s, when the U.S. added more than 150 gigawatts of natural gas power plants in just four years. The key differences this time are the momentous size of the proposed plants and the fact that so many of them are foregoing electric grid connections. Most of the plants built during that earlier period also used a more efficient design known as combined cycle, which uses the waste heat from gas combustion to power additional steam turbines. Due to supply chain constraints, however, about a quarter of the planned natural gas plants related to data center development are installing combustion engines, which are dirtier and less fuel efficient but easier to come by.
“From a climate perspective, there is definitely a risk that it locks in emissions from these resources and creates long term demand for gas as a fuel,” Brendan Pierpont, the director of electricity at the research firm Energy Innovation, told me. The projects also raise affordability concerns, he said, whether they are on the grid or not, as the increased demand for gas could raise gas prices for all users of the fuel.
Because so many of these projects are speculative, it’s difficult to get more specific about what it all means for U.S. electricity consumers, let alone emissions and climate change. Last week, Bloomberg News estimated that 126 gigawatts of planned natural gas projects tied to data centers would increase power sector emissions by at least 20% compared to 2025 levels were it all to be built. That estimate did not take into account the fact that the projects will be built amid other changes in the U.S. grid mix, however. More than 200 gigawatts of solar projects and nearly 30 gigawatts of onshore and offshore wind capacity spurred by the expiring clean energy tax credits are working their way through the development pipeline and could come online by around 2030. Battery energy storage is also surging.
Here’s another data point to consider: A recent report by the Rhodium Group modeled changes in U.S. emissions through 2040 and found that power sector emissions could decrease by 24% to 48% given current policy, energy, and technology trends. This is a significantly worse outcome than what the group found two years ago, when the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits were in effect; then, emissions from the power sector were set to decline by at least 42% by 2035, according to Rhodium modeling.
Both the new Rhodium report and the 2024 version take into account surging electricity demand driven by AI data centers, but neither considers the buildout of off-grid natural gas plants. Those would make the outlook “demonstrably worse” emissions-wise, Ben King, one of the authors, told me. The grid routes power when and where it’s needed, prioritizing the least-cost generation, King explained, whereas these off-grid plants will serve just one customer, whether it needs their full capacity or not.
It’s also important to take the Global Energy Monitor numbers with a grain of salt. Many of the projects haven’t even applied for permits, named a start year, or found an offtaker for the energy. Off-grid projects will need air and water permits from state governments, while on-grid projects may need additional approvals from utility regulators. Many will also need pipelines to deliver the gas, requiring additional approvals.
When I went through the data to try to identify the 10 biggest gas projects under development that are tied to data centers, it became clear how slippery the whole picture really is. As I looked up each project to verify the details, I found several that had upgraded or downgraded their advertised size multiple times since they were announced. Some were officially permitted for a smaller amount of generation but claimed they would eventually double or even triple that amount when the project is complete. Some were speculative to the point of not even having an advertised location.
Below I've compiled the 10 biggest projects according to their developers' stated aspirations. Many of the projects on the list do not yet have customers for their energy, while a number of megaprojects that didn’t make the cut do. For example, Chevron is building the Kilby power plant, a nearly 2.7-gigawatt off-grid natural gas plant in Texas, to serve a Microsoft data center. There are also large data center projects that didn't make the list because they are tied to more geographically distributed gas plants. Meta, for example, is working with the utility Entergy to bring more than 5-gigawatts of natural gas capacity online scattered across multiple sites in Louisiana to power its massive Hyperion project.
Still, viewed together, these projects provide a picture of what kind of progress the developers with the biggest natural gas plans are making so far.
1. Project Matador Power Station
Potential size: 11 gigawatts
Location: Amarillo, Texas
Developer: Fermi America
Grid connection: No
Customer: TensorWave, a cloud company, has agreed to buy 222 megawatts from the site.
Fermi has obtained state air permits for 6 gigawatts and submitted an application for five more. Fermi also recently enlisted a partner, Hillcore Energy, to build and operate 2.6 gigawatts of the total.
2. Portsmouth Powered Land Project
Potential size: 9.2 gigawatts
Location: Piketon, Ohio
Developer: SB Energy, backed by the U.S. government
Grid connection: According to the Department of Energy, it will “connect to the local grid,” i.e. PJM Interconnection
Customer: OpenAI
No air permits have been filed. Because the project is partially on federal land, it will have to undergo federal environmental review. The Trump administration has already decided to fast track permitting for the project, however, and expects to complete it by Christmas.
3. Stratos
Potential size: 9 gigawatts
Location: Box Elder County, Utah
Developer: Utah’s Military Installation Development Authority and investor Kevin O’Leary
Grid connection: No
Customer: Unknown
Box County approved two resolutions in support of the project in May. It faces intense local opposition. The developers reached an agreement with Utah Governor Spencer Cox in May to cap Phase I of the project at 1.5 gigawatts.
4. Monarch Compute Campus
Potential size: “8+” gigawatts, though the initial phase is much smaller
Location: Point Pleasant, West Virginia
Developer: Nscale
Grid connection: No
Customer: Anthropic agreed to lease one of three planned buildings on the campus, which will use more than 1.3 gigawatts of power in total
Nscale’s air permit application for a roughly 2.2-gigawatt natural gas power station is pending. The company says it has “a clear expansion path to 8GW+ as workload demand grows.” Microsoft was initially planning to lease the site but backed away from the deal over the summer.
5. GW Ranch Energy Center
Potential size: about 7.7 gigawatts
Location: Fort Stockton, Texas
Developer: Pacifico Energy
Grid connection: No
Customer: Amazon
The state approved Pacifico’s air permit for 7.65 gigawatts in January. The site is under construction.
6. Nexus Hubbard power plant
Potential size: More than 7 gigawatts
Location: Hubbard, Texas
Developer: Nexus Data Centers
Grid connection: No
Customer: Anthropic
Nexus’ air permit application is pending. The permit’s list of natural gas turbines and engines amount to more than 7 gigawatts of generation, however a July Wall Street Journal article about a potential financing deal for the project noted that the site would be capable of generating just 1.6 gigawatts. The deal has not yet been confirmed.
7. NextEra-Comstock power station
Potential size: 5.2 gigawatts
Location: Bethel, Texas
Developer: NextEra
Grid connection: Unknown
Customer: Unknown
The planned facility is part of a trade deal between the Trump administration and Japan. On August 12, NextEra executed agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the government of Japan to fund the development and operation of the project.
8. FO Permian
Potential size: 5 gigawatts
Location: Midland County, Texas
Developer: FO Permian Partners/HiVolt Energy
Grid connection: No
Customer: Unknown
Highly speculative. The developers haven’t made any permit filings that I was able to find. FO Permian’s website says that Phase I will be just 150 megawatts, but that the site has “5GW+ of dedicated gas supply.”
9. Homer City Generating Station
Potential size: 4.4 gigawatts
Location: Homer City, Pennsylvania
Developer: Knighthead Capital Management
Grid connection: Developer says it “will have capacity to serve multiple large data center customers and supply power to thousands of homes on the local grid.”
Customer: Amazon is in talks
Air permits were approved in November. Construction is underway.
10. South Mon Project
Potential size: 4.3 gigawatts
Location: Southwest Pennsylvania (precise location undisclosed)
Developer: NextEra
Grid connection: According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, it will connect to PJM
Customer: Unknown
The project is part of the same trade deal with Japan as the NextEra project in Bethel, Texas.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct Energy Innovation’s tax status. This story has also been updated to reflect changes in tenancy at Nscale’s Monarch data center campus.
Seems significant. CGEP